Shortstops at the Bargain Bin
With J.J. Hardy spirited away to Minnesota and Zack Cozart in line for a season of ripening, Paul Janish currently sits atop the Reds depth chart at short stop. And you needn't take my word for it - Marty Brennaman bears witness to this very fact in his most recent Hot Stove League broadcast. Prevailing opinion on this blog maintains that Janish's glovework makes him serviceable as the Reds lack funds needed to lasso a Marco Scutaro or Miguel Tejada. To boot, Tejada and Scutaro represent players for which the Reds would likely overpay, marking another ill-advised, prospect-blocking multiyear investment.
By all accounts, the best course of action would be to load up Paul Janish with supplements, a montage-worthy training regime and Lasik surgery - and hope for the best.
I did, however, accidentally read this throwaway remark in a recent MLB.com article by Mark Sheldon:
I think Paul Janish, might find a decent fit with 39-year-old Craig Counsell, who earned $1 million for the Brewers in 2009 and excels at getting on base.
It's easy to dismiss this as aimless groping in the wilderness of the Reds financial woes but I gave Craig Counsell's Fangraphs Page a once over just the same:
2009: .336 wOBA, .357 OBP, 2.8 WAR
Yes, he's 39, but the Reds wouldn't be crazy to pursue a one-year deal at $2MM or less. He plays competent defense and hits righties better than Janish does. One thing I hadn't realized about Janish was his rather jarring platoon splits in the minors:
vs. LHP: .312/.388/.435
vs. RHP: .238/.324/.358
Combine Janish with a bargain pick-up -- someone who plays adequate defense and hits righties. Janish takes starts against all lefties and the occasional righty and seeing frequent use as a late innings defensive replacement. The Reds could do worse than a one-year stopgap contract to Craig Counsell.
Age is clearly a major risk factor for a Counsell signing going bust. Bill James projects .246/.337/.327 in 2010, about what we'd expect from Janish. Counsell's 2008 was an aberration and he may end up being about as valuable as Janish over next year. The fact remains, however, that Janish has a record of poor performance against right handed pitching. If the money and/or right transaction comes available, the Reds would be well advised to find a way to add depth at short.
Here are some other ways to go:
The Angels have a potential logjam in their middle infield, but the cost in trade for either would be dear. Unlikely to be wrested from the Angels for anything that wouldn't short-circuit the 2010 season and amount to a full on rebuilding gambit.
-- EDIT: As per Geki, Sean Rodriguez is in the Rays system now. I need to monitor the trade wires more vigilantly.
Reid Brignac or Sean Rodriguez (Rays)
Both have been mentioned as trade targets here before. Brignac's stock has gone up since last offseason, so any trade might have to start with Chris Heisey as a centerpiece. Rays have Barlett and Zobrist pretty well locked in at ss and 2b for the foreseeable future, so one of these two might be available.
Seems doubtful the Indians would flip a lucrative piece of the Cliff Lee trade, but they're in desperate straits.
Alexei Ramirez / Brent Lillibridge / Chris Getz / Jayson Nix (White Sox)
None of these guys have been impressive in the majors, but the surplus of middle infield talent with upside on the Sox warrants a look. Could grant the Reds more flexibility in what they do with Janish, BP, Frazier and Sutton over the next year, rejiggering the depth chart favorably and providing a bridge to future transaction.
Tyler Green (Cardinals)
Minor league offensive numbers aren't much better than Janish, but still has upside. Could be a decent foil to keep both Cozart and Janish honest.
Todd Frazier and/or Drew Sutton at 2B, BP to SS
The refrain is "not going to happen," but for the purposed of this thought experiment, assume that it could. The defense could be start out awkward at both positions - and Frazier would need to make the offensive adjustment - but Frazier needs to find a position soon - whether it be 2B, 3B and OF. Sutton, for his part, has respectable minor league numbers and should get a trial, in lieu of Rosales, wherever the Reds have an opening.
Free agent. Only paid $1MM last season. Probably not an improvement on Janish.
---
Most of the available options are pretty fraught, which points to staying the course with Janish and allowing Valaika and Cozart to percolate for a year. While I see plenty of merit in this policy of benign neglect, I can't help but think that short-stop may be the position of greatest return on investment for the Reds, given their current lack of depth and future void at shortstop and 2b as Phillips gets more expensive, older and then becomes a free agent.
A low or no cost change to the status quo should not be too much to ask, especially considering the fact that both SS and 2B are likely to jointly drag down team OBP next year, which I suspect is the area of greatest need for the Reds. I guess all I'm asking is for some kind of 3rd tier transaction I can feed into my hot stove, which means I'll be dissapointed no matter what. But it's the new and different forms of dissappointment that keep me coming back.
1 recs |
39 comments
Comments
y'know
I could probably live with Craig Counsell, if they signed him for one year, $1 million.
He’ll probably cost more, though, since he had such a good year.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Nov 19, 2009 5:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
scraptacular!
Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,
by 'tHan on Nov 19, 2009 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that's ex-freak to you
at least he doesn’t hold his bat way over his head any more.
by bbjones on Nov 19, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
me too
did I mention he’s from South Bend? We’re practically brothers!
I’d seriously like having one of my favorite players of the post-Jacob Brumfield years on the Reds in the VP/Utility role
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Nov 19, 2009 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BP to short with frazier/Sutton is the way to go...but unfortunately it will never happen
Thanks to Dusty.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
by Madville on Nov 19, 2009 6:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Many korean ball players show their desire to play SS for the Reds.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
by Madville on Nov 19, 2009 7:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
wtf was THAT?
To quote the Joker, “Where does he get these wonderful toys?” Nice work, Mads!
"Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!"
by "Red" Moskau on Nov 23, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Istand on the shoulders of a giant
Fat Velvet Alan
nothin’ more to be siad Red….
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
by Madville on Nov 23, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We really should have both Nix brothers on the same team
… but I just couldn’t bring myself to vote for that option
by Highlifeman21 on Nov 19, 2009 9:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Brilliant - these guys agree
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
by Madville on Nov 19, 2009 10:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We should trade everyone
and get Hanley Ramerez
I was on a flush draw?!?!?
by REDLEG5 on Nov 19, 2009 10:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’d like for the Reds to trade for a high-upside shortstop at or near AAA to compete with Cozart and Janish over the next season or two. I’d rather find someone other than the players listed, however. Honesetly, I don’t see much difference in Valaika over Donald, and I’d be surprised if Brignac will stick at SS. I’d rather the Reds go after a higher ceiling short-stop prospect like Castro or Triunfel. It would take a little more to get, but if we’re serious about adressing arguably the most imporant position on the field, then might as well go all out acquiring the best minor league talent since we don’t have the payroll for a proven commodity.
by wanderinredsfan on Nov 19, 2009 10:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm over Casro after he PH for Josh Hamilton...
Maybe I’m the only one…but
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
by Madville on Nov 19, 2009 10:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i'm over castro since he pinch hit for batista
maybe i’m the only one…but
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Nov 19, 2009 11:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
justin went to cuba!
Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,
by 'tHan on Nov 20, 2009 8:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and now he lives in Chicago!
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Nov 20, 2009 9:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course I would love having the Nyx bros on the Reds....
Laynce is one of those guys I can’t help root for..he started his career well had some injuries and if only…well anyway.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
by Madville on Nov 19, 2009 11:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
you want Jayson too?
like Mr. and Mrs. Nix should be killed for that.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Nov 19, 2009 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what's with all of the killing lately?
if you’re not “fucking” someone you are killing them. What gives?
Definitely a good argument.
by Slyde on Nov 20, 2009 8:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His age has allowed him to percolate with fetishes.
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
by Pops Daniels on Nov 20, 2009 8:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sorry slyde
i’ll back off a bit.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Nov 20, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it's not all directed outward.
I weep for his screwdriver.
by bbjones on Nov 21, 2009 12:34 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Nov 21, 2009 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sean Rodriguez is actually on the Rays now.
He was involved in the Kazmir deal. They may be willing to move either him or Brignac, though I’m not sure Rodriguez is a great option at SS and the Rays may be unwilling to move Brignac.
And I absolutely despise Craig Counsell, almost as much as I hate David Eckstein.
by Geki on Nov 20, 2009 1:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
They got ringz!!1!1!!!111
Definitely a good argument.
by Slyde on Nov 20, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fixed, thanks
Seems like they do something with Brignac of S.Rodriguez with Zobrist and Bartlett pretty well established, though I suppose they could just hold on to them or stick someone at DH for a little while.
And even if you have an irrational dislike of Counsell, you have to recognize the utility of bringing someone in who could get on base at a decent rate against righties. I think can be done for cheap. It’s going to kill the Reds having 400 PAs of .300 or so OBP, especially if it’s coming from the 2 spot.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 20, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i think the Rays may have designs on moving Zobrist to RF
to open a spot for one of the youngsters. makes more sense than to pay for a RF, right?
i wonder if the Reds could do something like that to fill some of their holes…
by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 20, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know that Counsell will bring anything to the team.
Last year was the best season of his career other than a partial season in 2000. He’s been a pretty asstastic hitter for pretty much his whole career and he turns 40 next season. I don’t think he’ll hit like he did last season and I really don’t think he’d be any more valuable of a player than Drew Sutton.
by Geki on Nov 20, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i totally forgot about Sutton
yeah, let’s stick with that guy instead.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 20, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah Sutton is pretty forgettable but he might not be a bad bench guy.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
by Madville on Nov 20, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sutton hit righties
at a respectable .281/.385/.469 in the minors. Maybe his bat is enough to overcome, by all accounts, his subpar defense at short. I just don’t think they should have to settle for Janish vs. righties if they can help it.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 21, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, I agree settling with Janish probably isn't ideal
but I’m just not sure what about Craig Counsell excites you. He doesn’t bring any speed to the table, he’s not a great defender at SS, he’s 39 years old, he’s coming off of a career year, and he’s the former owner of the world’s most annoying batting stance. His value pretty much comes from his ability to play three infield positions, all of which Rosales and Sutton can play (and Sutton can play the OF, too).
The biggest reason I don’t want Craig Counsell, though, is Dusty’s presence in the dugout. We all know that he’d be starting at SS and batting 2nd for as long as Dusty could possibly ride him out. Dusty can’t misuse what he doesn’t have, so I view it as an organizational necessity to ensure that Dusty doesn’t have Craig Counsell or anybody of his ilk available.
by Geki on Nov 21, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're miscasting me as a diehard Craig Counsell fan
The most ringing endorsement I gave him was that the Reds “could do worse than a one-year stopgap contract to Craig Counsel.” I’m throwing his name in there along with many others to the effect that they should look to add someone who can hit righties better than Janish and play respectable defense at short. Counsell is not a “great defender,” but he’s going to be significantly better than Drew Sutton at short.
It’s certainly more cost-effective to plug in Sutton, but if the goal is to make the team more competitive in 2010 and a couple million is available, the biggest return on investment would be to find someone who can both hold down the position and get on base at a respectable rate against right handed pitching. Craig Counsell would be a risk, but if he could “do no harm” defensively, while reaching base at a .350 or so clip, he’d be easily worth say $1.5MM. Ultimately, it’s probably rearranging the deck chairs. I don’t think I would advocate making a risky signing of a platoon player at SS over paying Gomes, but it could prove worthwhile to pursue flipping Gomes for a middle infielder, given the relative pools of talent the Reds have to draw from at those two positions.
As for Dusty, he’s going to misuse any shortstop he gets his hands on, so I’d rather it be someone with better on base skills in the 2nd spot with a righthander on the mound.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 21, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd love to see...
Brignac on the Reds.
by Havok1517 on Nov 20, 2009 7:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Why are
a bunch of posts discussing Todd Frazier’s defensive numbers from TotalZone deleted?
by no1marauder on Nov 29, 2009 2:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
OOPS
wrong article. In the immortal words of RoseanRosannaDana:
NEVER MIND!
by no1marauder on Nov 29, 2009 2:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Always sort of liked Counsell.
But I vote for saving the $2 million and putting it toward the draft.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Nov 30, 2009 2:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Final installmetn Men and Their Balls
see sopmething for Androache,
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
by Madville on Nov 30, 2009 10:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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