How much is Jonny Gomes worth?
by JinAZ on Nov 18, 2009 7:15 AM EST
in Off-season
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PrintA lot of the talk about the Hernandez signing was about whether the money spent on Hernandez would affect our ability to sign Jonny Gomes. I thought it'd be worth it to try to estimate how much Jonny Gomes should actually be paid in 2010.
Gomes will be effectively in his second year of arbitration eligibility in 2010. He's at 4+ years of service, despite having his first significant amount of playing time in 2005: too much time in the minors. This impacts his earning potential, as players do not make as much in arbitration hearings as they do on the open free agent market. The general guideline is that they make 40% of free agent salary in their first year of arbitration, 60% in their second year, and 80% in their third year of arbitration, though some work has shown that these values actually underestimate actual totals because arbitration salaries haven't inflated as rapidly as free agent salaries. But we'll go with 60% for Jonny.
Hitting-wise, Jonny is above-average. CHONE's R150 is +4 RAA for him. Converted to wins per full season puts him at +0.5 WAA. CHONE's slightly more optimistic than ZiPS, but let's run with CHONE for now.
Gomes's problem is his fielding. Jeff Zimmerman's UZR projections have him at -3 runs in the corner outfield positions combined. However, he really only has about 1.5 seasons worth of playing time in the outfield to draw from (192 games started), which means sample size is an issue and thus we're seeing Gomes regressed a bit toward the mean. Furthermore, Zimmerman's data are based on total UZR data in each season, not UZR/150, which results in several fairly "average" low-inning stints entering into the calculations and pulling the numbers back toward zero. I'm just not sure that I trust that projection. So let's try something else.
His career UZR/150 in the corner outfield is -22 runs. Yikes. But again, it's based on a relatively small sample for this kind of stat, so we probably need to regress roughly 50% toward the mean. As an alternative, the Fan Scouting Report has him at 2.4 out of 5.0, which is well below the average of RFs of 3.2. If I'm doing this right (and I think I am), based on standard deviations of the Fans data and UZR data, you can equate 1 unit of FSR to ~17 runs, which would put Gomes at -14 runs below average in RF per full season (-1.6 wins). That seems in keeping with his all-hit-no-field reputation, so I'm going to go with that estimate. Nevertheless, I can see arguments for everything from -0.5 wins to -2 wins. It's a big source of uncertainty, and how you evaluate his overall value depends a great deal on how you evaluate his fielding.
Finally, Gomes is playing corner outfield positions, which have a 0.75 win/season penalty to reflect the poor fielding found at that position (it's easier to be an average-fielding left fielder than an average-fielding center fielder). Replacement is +2.25 wins per season.
So, all of that combined, per season, puts Gomes at 0.5 - 1.6 - 0.75 + 2.25 = 0.4 WAR player per full season.
Ouch. Fielding just kills his value.
The question, then, is playing time. CHONE projects him at 54% playing time, which isn't an unreasonable guess if you assume he'd platoon with Dickerson in left. On the other hand, if he starts all year, he might push toward 85% playing time. Here are estimated WAR totals, free agent dollar values, and 2nd-year arbitration dollar values for each of those two playing time estimates:
| Playing Time | WAR | FA $ | Arb $ |
| 54% | 0.2 | $1.0M | $0.6M |
| 85% | 0.3 | $1.5M | $0.9M |
If those seem like surprisingly low totals, remember a) he's not getting paid at free agent rates yet, and b) fielding is killing his value. He was worth 0.6 WAR according to fangraphs last season...but 2009 was his first positive WAR season since his "breakout" 2005 campaign.
Also, in terms of the salaries, keep in mind that these are estimated fair market values for him. The market, and probably especially the arbitration market, hasn't completely corrected for bad fielding players yet. Arbitration debates, as I understand them, are still largely settled with AVG/HR/RBI. So it may be that he'd get more than that in arbitration--perhaps at least the $1.3M he made in 2008. Nevertheless, I think this is a pretty good estimate of what he should be paid in 2010.
Finally, I want to emphasize that this estimate is hugely contingent on how you evaluate his fielding. Go with the Zimmerman UZR projections and you add a full win (~$4 M) to his FA salary. Go with his straight-up career corner outfield UZR/150, and he's a replacement player. What do you folks think?
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A couple of things
1. I think there are situations where you can separate a player’s offensive value from his defensive value based on need. This likely shouldn’t change his market value – that is, Gomes shouldn’t be getting more than $1.5M – but it might change whether or not the Reds should make an effort to keep him despite his low WAR projection. A team like the Reds that desperately needs some offensive firepower may have to sacrifice defense in a position or two to get offensive help, especially on a budget. My spidey sense is telling me that there is a point of diminishing returns on too much offense or too much defense (unless you have a huge budget), and that Gomes’ might actually be more valuable to the Reds because he provides more balance to the roster.
2. I’d like to see how Gomes compares to his actual replacements – Dickerson, Balentien, Heisey, Nix, Frazier, and Francisco. I’m not sure how reliable projections will be for any of these players since all of their samples are weak, but these players affect Gomes’ value to the Reds rather than his theoretical value in comparison to the league as a whole. It may be that Gomes’ can get $1.5 million in arbitration, but he might only be worth half that to the Reds since they have so many options.
Otherwise, good stuff. I’m not surprised WAR values Gomes so lowly, and when it comes to trying to identify Gomes value, it’s probably the way to go. However, I’m not sure WAR tells us what we ultimately need to know, which is whether the Reds need to keep Gomes or not.
Definitely a good argument.
I'm intrigued by your first point
Should a team consider more than simply the net runs a player is likely to provide over next season? I suspect you’re right about not overlooking the value of a player who fills an urgent need – thereby “balancing” the team – but I’m curious how this would be quantified and why it couldn’t be factored into overall value if playing time was estimated properly.
It seems like the main benefit of placing more value on Gomes RH power hitting that might not be captured in his WAR estimates are the ways in which he can be leveraged in situations against lefties and the ways in which his ability to hit for power affects the lineup in general (ie how Votto, Bruce etc are pitched to).
I’m sure there are diminishing returns encountered overspending on offense or defense. If the Reds, to make the example a little absurdb, have a decent run-preventing team and a completely ineffectual offense, allowing 4 runs every game and scoring zero, it would seem that the only way to improve would be offensively – that spending on defense would bring diminishing returns – but it’s a zero sum game right? Any player signed would add or subtract from both as a function of their total value.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 18, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
Responses
1. Generally, a run is a run is a run. But it is true that, depending on where the team is in RS vs. RA, there may be cases where one is more valuable than the other. This will become more important as the size of the disparity between RS and RA gets larger. That’s why a pythagorean approach is a better predictor of team wins than simply looking at run differential. How large the effect size is, I’m not sure. It’d be easy enough to do a quick study on that using pythagenpat. … no time right now though. :(
No matter what the finding in such a study, however, I don’t think this should necessarily factor into the salary paid, as that should be set by the market as a whole. It’s more a question of whether the player makes sense to sign at his market rate, and once signed, the degree to which he should be played.
2. My feeling is that his replacements will compare favorably. At least some of Balentien’s projections are coming in comparable to Gomes as a hitter, and he can’t be much worse of a fielder. Dickerson isn’t the hitter Gomes is (and is a lefty), but he has a lot more fielding value. Heisey & Frazier, I dunno. Nix & Francisco…meh.
As you say, there are more factors that go into a signing decision than what to pay him. Being able to leverage lefty/righty platoon advantages is important, and the Reds don’t have a lot of right-handed bats. Leveraging a power pinch hiting bat is also important. But I think we have to start with at least understanding what the guy is worth in dollars before we do anything else.
I will also say that there’s a sense in which, even if we can’t get him at the arbitration discount, anything up to his free agent salary is not a horrible signing. The reason is that we can’t expect to get that much WAR from the free agent market without spending up to his free agent $ value. If he signs above his free agent salary, though, this means either a) the Reds think he’s a better fielder than the Fans do, or b) they’re overpaying.
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
I agree with pretty much everything you say
Just trying to add some grey area to the fairly black-and-white discussion of value. :)
Definitely a good argument.
Regarding the salary being "set by the market as a whole"...
I’d like to chime in that averages aren’t important in setting prices. What matters is the willingness to pay of the marginal buyer. If all teams value someone the same, this obviously doesn’t matter, but if there’s some distribution of values then it does.
If all teams are equally good at contract talks, then in theory, every player should go to the team that values him the most, with his salary being slightly above the value that the second-ranking team (in line for his services) places on him.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
I like that you added this.
And I think I follow you.
Could you dumb it down just a notch?
"If you have a spaceship and are looking for a hilarious astronaut with an irregular heartbeat and thirty million dollars, I am prepared to leave as soon as tomorrow."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 18, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
How about an example?
The Reds and the Cubs both want Gomes. All other teams would be willing to give $1 million for him, but no more. But for whatever reason, the Reds and the Cubs value him more—he’s worth $2 million to the Cubs and $3 million to the Reds.
To get a market value, it doesn’t matter what all of those other teams think he’s worth. All that matters is that the team that values him the most (the Reds) pays more than what the next team (the Cubs) will offer him. In this case, this means paying him slightly more than $2 million—or given the Reds’ negotiating skills, $3 million.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
Sure
But the free agent values I’m estimating above are the typical dollars at which a free agent will sign, given their win value. So what I’m reporting here are essentially the maximum offers a player can expect to get. Other teams, which need the player less or have other contingent factors that reduce their demand for the player, will pay less.
If a team gets a player for less than this, good on them, they got a bargain, are saving money, and have a good trade chip later on. If they spend more than this mark, however, they’re probably paying more than the player is worth, and so spending money elsewhere on a different player or players would result in more production for the team.
The same is not necessarily true of arbitration dollars, of course, but that’s a contrived system anyway created by the CBA. It is the case that while typical 2nd-year arbitration values would have a 1 WAR player valued at $2.6 M, you’d have to pay $4.4 M to replace that 1 WAR through free agency. Therefore, it can still “make sense” to overpay for an arbitration player because you need his production and can’t get it any cheaper. The arbitration process as set up by the CBA basically just drags down salaries to prevent teams from having to pay too much.
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
But again, since we only see the outcomes of the bargaining process...
we can infer some general value if everyone generally values everything the same, but I think there are plenty of cases where teams have very different values for a player. One of the margins on which a cheap team like the Reds can work is in exploiting some of those differences.
Then again, it isn’t worth much when the Yankees can just overpay at every position anyway.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
I think it comes down to whether Wlad should get a shot
Gomes has a weird career arc. Good seasons in 2005 and 2009 with a lot of mediocrity in between. Which is why CHONE isn’t terribly high on his offense (253/337/495). At least he has a couple of good MLB seasons – Wlad hasn’t done anything of note yet. But he’s also four years younger and has a better glove. I’d lean towards Wlad/Dickerson in 2010 but it’s probably a push.
One thing different about Gomes’ 2009 versus the rest of his career is that he hit righties (about 100 points higher in ‘09 versus his career average against righties). SSS and all, but if that’s sustainable then he’s an averagish LF/backup 1B.
yep
it really is a Jonny vs. Wlad discussion. Wlad is the only right-handed outfielder besides Gomes that has a history of good power, but Wlad hasn’t shown any of it at the big league level. I think the Reds really need that right-handed power, at least on the bench if not in the lineup. Rolen has only hit more than 11 HR once in the last 5 seasons. BP obviously has some pop, but he’s the only 20 HR threat from the right side besides Gomes and maybe Wlad. Wlad slugged .526 in the minors, though some of that was in the PCL. He appears to have that power potential, but will he ever realize it?
Definitely a good argument.
You forgot Owings!
Seriously, you can do worse as your righty PH.
As for Wlad, I think 2010 is an ideal time to check him out before either Votto/Alonso or one of the younger guys gets the call.
I'm thinking the Reds need more than just a RH pinch hitter
and I wouldn’t be surprised if 2010 is considered Balentien’s “last shot” with the way that baseball works.
Definitely a good argument.
I remember reading something, I think it was in Baseball America from last year
where they said Wlad had cut down on his Ks in AAA because he’d stopped swinging from his heels and become more of a hitter than a slugger.
I wonder if his decreased power is because he’s being more selective and worrying about increasing his contact. Regardless, his walk rates and OBP were great with the Reds this year, and at only age 25, I really think this is the year he deserves a shot to earn the starting job.
Another thing, it’s still a small sample size (155 games) but in the majors he’s been worth +4.6 runs in the OF. Seems like he’s got a decent chance to be worth more than Gomes.
I’d still love to have Gomes on the roster, but I really want Wlad to get a shot.
If I hear the word 'perky' again, I'll puke
Wlad gives you something to dream on
Gomes could go all Raul Ibanez on us too. But Wlad has a chance to be a Carlos Lee-style masher, maybe. I’d like to have both on the team, but I’d probably try to start Wlad over Gomes if I had say in these things.
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
Nice work
but the whole thing just underscores what makes me nervous about fielding metrics. With him in the line-up the team had the fourth-best defensive efficiency in all of MLB, but they were still out-scored (bringing to mind: we finished last with you, we can finish last without you, Johnny). A run may be a run, but Gomes RBI potential and HR’s would seem to help the RS side on a team with defense.
Which highlights the point, that without an offensive upgrade, the 2010 Reds are the same team the 2009 Reds were, except with Scott Rolen, Drew Stubbs, and the new and improved Homer Bailey. So, with full seasons of “no Taveras,” Jay Bruce living up to projections, and Rolen’s bat for 120 – 140 games, is that enough offense?
I’d be very nervous if i were Uncle Walt
oh, they are definitely still playing the "if everything goes right" game
Definitely a good argument.
Key to getting good fielding estimates
Use lots of different inputs to come to your conclusions, and hope they converge. A 50% regression of Gomes’ career UZR/150 (based on the “you need three years of UZR to say much” notion, and Gomes essentially has 1.5 years of outfield play in the books) puts him at -11 runs/season. Matches up pretty well to the -14 runs/season estimate from the Fan Scouting Report. I went with FSR for this one, but perhaps I could have averaged -11 and -14 to get -12.5 or so. Either way, I think we’re in the ballpark of his true fielding talent.
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
I don't question your methodology (I was very impressed with it in fact)
I just wonder about fielding values in general and their worth to corner OF’s in particular….call me old school (and call my math skills elementary school)
Defense matters in the corner outfield just as it does in center field
If your left fielder is giving up more runs than an average left fielder, that hurts your team. Period. You can never completely ignore defense at a position. It may be that you can downweight it, maybe down to 80% of its normal value(???), if you have a severely unbalanced team that scores little but has awesome run prevention. But it never disappears.
The only thing you gain by shoving a bad fielder to a corner position rather than an up-the-middle position is a) they get fewer opportunities to suck because fewer balls are hit to those positions, and b) other teams do the same thing and so you’re matching up to what your competition is doing. But sticking a “center fielder” in a corner outfield slot can be a huge boon for a team, provided they still have a good fielder in center field. Ichiro is a good example, as was Franklin Gutierrez before he moved to CF this past season.
-j
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
Apparently felt the need to "sign" my name (initial?) twice. :)
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
DYN O MITE !!!
"If you have a spaceship and are looking for a hilarious astronaut with an irregular heartbeat and thirty million dollars, I am prepared to leave as soon as tomorrow."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 18, 2009 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think there are better options
How about signing Nick Johnson to a one or two year deal and moving Votto to left, so that when Alonso is ready, he can step in at first. Votto cannot be worse than Gomes as an OFer and he’s a much better hitter. Nick Johnson is wicked with the glove and is an OBP machine that even Dusty can’t screw up.
Johnson has made $5.5 million each of the last 3 years, and he's been worth much more
I don’t think the Reds could afford him without dumping some other salary. Plus, I think he’ll want and get a multi-year deal – probably 3 years – which would put the Reds right back in the same position with Alonso.
Definitely a good argument.
Oh. Yeah.
This.
"If you have a spaceship and are looking for a hilarious astronaut with an irregular heartbeat and thirty million dollars, I am prepared to leave as soon as tomorrow."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 18, 2009 9:56 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think Nick Johnson is at a point in his career where he has to settle for one-year contracts.
And two years of Johnson would cost the Reds ~$10 million (?)
Na. Gonna. Happen.
"If you have a spaceship and are looking for a hilarious astronaut with an irregular heartbeat and thirty million dollars, I am prepared to leave as soon as tomorrow."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 18, 2009 9:56 AM EST up reply actions
But here's an idea.
Let’s sign Bonds to an incentive-based one-year deal.
He’d be cheap. He’d be effective. He’d be all buddy-buddy with Dusty. He’d sell tickets. He’d hit some home runs.
"If you have a spaceship and are looking for a hilarious astronaut with an irregular heartbeat and thirty million dollars, I am prepared to leave as soon as tomorrow."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 18, 2009 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
I don't hate this
But I’m worried that a disruptive locker room presence like Barr-roid is not going to be good for a young team like the Reds. If bringing Rolen in helped the locker room, wouldn’t Bonds undo all that if he was here?
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
See, now you're giving Dusty exactly the challenge he wants.
"If you have a spaceship and are looking for a hilarious astronaut with an irregular heartbeat and thirty million dollars, I am prepared to leave as soon as tomorrow."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 18, 2009 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
I don't hate that either
Oh, and he would be an exciting lightning rod for the “fans” to beat the hell out of.
Takes the pressure off of Bruce and Votto
And would sell enough tickets to increase payroll slightly.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
i dont like it
this team needs a RH power hitter.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 18, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
then you are in luck
because Bonds has hit left-handers to the tune of .289/.416/.568 in his career.
Then again, he’ll be 45 this season and hasn’t played (read: juiced) in 2 years and had bad knees when he last played. So, no to the hypothetical.
Definitely a good argument.
i dont care how well he hit left-handed pitching
we need a righty to break up the lefties! just adding another lefty is begging the other team to bring in the LOGGY!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 18, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
then you are in luck
all of the steroids have allowed Bonds to grow a 3rd arm, turning him into a switch-hitter!
Definitely a good argument.
there is a photo shop i'd like to make of this
but it would probably get me banned.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Nov 18, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
Okay, so there would be little more than 50-50 chance that he'd play more than 50 games.
But if the Reds are just trying to build for 2011 and 2012 while muddling through 2010, this wouldn’t hurt. You might not get a lot from him but it’s a chance to get a lil’ something from nothing and at the very least you’d create some buzzzz.
With Bonds on the roster and Wooden Nickel Nights on the schedule, you’d have to turn ’em away when they hit 275!
"If you have a spaceship and are looking for a hilarious astronaut with an irregular heartbeat and thirty million dollars, I am prepared to leave as soon as tomorrow."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 18, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
I would hope that Gomes stays and that Wlad starts in AAA.
If Gomes hits then great…If he falls into his pattern of season to season inconsistency and is a wash out… then bring Wlad up and let him have a shot. Wlad needs to play everyday. For that matter so does gomes, he was a terrible PH last season.
However with RayMoan back in the fold I reiterate: The Reds will not end up signing Gomes. There are other teams out there willing to paying him significantly more to sit on their bench than the Reds would pay him to play everyday. Gomes will only be a Red if he wants to stay here – because he is in line for a starting position.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
Wlad can't go to Triple A without passing through waivers
he is out of options, which is why the Reds got him.
Definitely a good argument.
mads knew that
what he meant was the reds should fake an injury and assign him to louisville on a rehab assignment
Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,
Then how do you explain this: "Gomes will only be a Red if he wants to stay here – because he is in line for a starting position."
The Reds control Gomes whether he likes it or not. It’s not a matter of signing him. He’s under arbitration.
Definitely a good argument.
honestly i didn't even read his comment, just your rebuttal
so i’m done defending him
Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,
so Gomes can't opt out of arbitration?
This I did not know
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
not in this case
he is not eligible for free agency. Free agents can be offered arbitration and decline (this is where the compensation picks come in), but Gomes only has 4 years of service time so he is still arb-eligible and under the team’s control.
Definitely a good argument.
how did you not know this?
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Nov 19, 2009 3:32 AM EST up reply actions
Uh yeah .... wave on dudes
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
they just need him to restructure his contract...
Wily Mo’d
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
Well then get Brian B on the phone...Jonny could use a good lawyer/agent
There may be hope after all.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
ufck it
this team will be a piece of shit with our without gomes, so lets go without, save so money and myabe have cheaper beer. YAY BBEER!!!
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
A prime example of a player that was arb eligible that would be used if Gomes case went to an arbitrator is Marcus Thames contract situation last year.
Thames (a righty platoon player w/ below average D) was entering his second to last arb year (4.15 yrs. of service time), was about to turn 32, and was coming off an ‘08 campaign w/ this line:
103 G’s – 316 AB’s – 50 R’s – 25 HR’s – 56 RBI’s – 24 BB’s – 95 K’s – .241 AVG – .292 OBP – .516 SLG – .808 OPS
That ‘08 line was a very reasonable projection for a year’s service in relation to his past performances.
He settled for a contract of 2.25 mill for the ’09 season.
Now Gomes (a righty platoon player w/ below average D) is entering his second to last arb year (4.15 yrs. of service tiem), is about to turn 29, and is coming off an ‘09 campaign w/ this line:
98 G’s – 281 AB’s – 39 R’s – 20 HR’s – 51 RBI’s – 26 BB’s – 85 K’s – .267 AVG – .338 OBP – .541 SLG – .879 OPS
That line is better than what a reasonable projection for him would have been and the Reds would argue that he probably wouldn’t hit those numbers again.
The fact that he was non-tendered and had signed a minor league deal will have very little bearing at a hearing (all sides with conclude that his ‘08 numbers were an abberation and not the norm). Offensively Gomes’ season and Thames’ compared fairly well to one another, Gomes a slight edge in fact. But if you factor in that Gomes is 3 years younger and is better against L’s his contract should be very close to what Thames received.
I still don’t think he’s an everyday player, though I think #‘s nearer to his career average (minus 2008) are probably more likely. I would think – 105 games / 340 AB’s / 50 R’s / 20 HR’s / 55 RBI’s / 40 BB’s / 110 K’s / .250 AVG / .335 OBP / .495 SLG / .6 WAR – is a decent projection. Make sure he is on the bench against really strong RHP’s who don’t give up homeruns and thus would be worth a 2.5 mill deal.
I won’t be shocked if they do in fact exchange salary figures, with the Reds initial offer around 1.75 mill and Gomes agent’s initial offer being around 3 mill. I expect them to settle in the middle.
If the Reds are smart and able, and they gave him a contract similar to what Russell Branyan received last year: say a base of 1.75 mill with (Incentives) 100K each for 200, 250, 300, 350, and 400 Plate Appearances, then Reds fans, and Reds brass should be very happy.
Good analysis
Different methodology, but everything you wrote seems reasonable.
FWIW, tonight I just did the FSR fielding data again and discovered a small wrinkle that has me now using 1 unit FSR = 16 UZR runs, rather than 17. This pulls his fielding estimate from -14 runs up to -12, which increases his projected full season WAR from 0.4 to 0.6. As small of an increase as that is, it increases his projected value (and projected salaries) by 50%. We’re in the same ballpark, given the error bars around this kind of thing.
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
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