Jeff Zimmerman's UZR projections
Jeff Zimmerman posted his 2010 UZR projections. I haven't completely worked through his methodology, but the results seem pretty reasonable. Here are the main Reds of interest:
Joey Votto: +2
Brandon Phillips: +7
Paul Janish: +4 (sample size may pull him down a bit)
Scott Rolen: +7
Chris Dickerson: +1 in CF, +1 in LF (usually a 10-run difference per season between those positions...)
Jonny Gomes: -3 in RF, -1 in LF (I'm surprised it's not worse)
Drew Stubbs: +2 (sample pulls him down a lot, appropriately)
Willy Taveras: +3
Jay Bruce: +1 (2009 data were better than 2008)
That, folks, is a fine fielding team.
about 2 years ago
JinAZ
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These is total UZR, not UZR/150 games
Which is why Janish seems low. Bruce is the only one that surprises me.
Austin Kearns
Leader in RF. Anyone think he has anything left? Someone might get quite the bargain.
The man who will one day be President is, at this moment, lying in his cradle, trying to find some strategic way to get his big toe in his mouth.
-Mark Twain
platoon him with Dickerson
that would be the best fielding LF monster in the biz, sho nuff.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 14, 2009 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
Long-tme reader, first-time poster.
Perhaps someone needs to let Zimmerman in on how much better of a fielder Stubbs is compared to Taveras. He should also be informed of possible fan-revolt if Taveras ends up starting over Stubbs (or Dickerson) next spring. IMO, Stubbs is already a top-5 defensive centerfielder, and Dickerson isn’t too far behind. I’d be very surprised if Taveras starts in 50 games next season, let alone still taking up a roster spot by July. If he is, then what little confidence I have in the current regime (Bob, Walt, etc.) will evaporate.
by wanderinredsfan on Nov 14, 2009 11:26 PM EST reply actions
Hi, Hello, and welcome
Stubbs has a small sample size, and T-Virus has years of defensive statistics, which are actually kind of all over the place. He isn’t saying Taveras should start over Stubbs, just simply his system has created these numbers.
In projections such as this, there are always bound to be individual players who are way off, but overall the system is pretty close to right.
Slyde or Justin could explain it better, but they probably have real lives, where I’m a procrastinating student affraid to write his paper, because if i fuck it up, i could get the boot. I’m not in any particular academic trouble, but almost every term paper is like this, because if I get a C in any course I get called in to the Graduate Program Director’s Office and have to explain myself, and if she is unhappy with my explanation, well come January I’ll be a substitute teacher for Hamilton City Schools, rather than going to school in Chicago.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Nov 14, 2009 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I somewhat understand how the projections are created, but I’ve always had a problem when actual playing time is not properly analyzed/projected. I reckon it’s difficult, considering what can happen with free-agency, trades, etc.., but I think anyone with an inkling of knowledge about Cincy’s roster would project more games for Stubbs than Taveras, thus a better total UZR. I’m pretty sure that the starting position is Stubbs to lose.
Good luck on the paper, but don’t stress over the possibility of fucking it up. Given what level you are at, I’m sure you realize that the results will be fine, so long as an honest effort is made. The problem with procrastination is that it keeps us from making an adequate effort. Sometimes, a person just has to jump into the work, even if they lack adequate inspiration. Somewhere along the journey, you’ll realize you’re on the right track.
by wanderinredsfan on Nov 14, 2009 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
Right, this isn't something involving a lot of direct human input
It’s based on sample size, and it’s based on past playing time. Stubbs has neither, and so even though he posted otherworldly UZR numbers in his short time with the club, he’s substantially regressed to the mean.
Now, another way to do the projection is to regress to fan scouting reports. Stubbs is the best-rated CF in baseball there, albeit with only 10 votes (and so maybe FSR needs to be regressed). But those UZR + FSR gives pretty good data indicating that Stubbs is the awesomeness.
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
One method is to look for people near a player like Stubbs and see how he did in the FSR
Then find others around him in the FSR.
A predicted 2 UZR in only 42 games is pretty high. Only 25% of his value is from his shown ability and the rest is regressed to league average.
If he had put up the same total in 125 games he would be at 4 UZR.
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 15, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
Fay links the Reds with Hanley Ramirez
The Reds aren’t going to trade Rolen – they just got him. Harang’s value is so far down, the Reds would probably have to pay half of his salary just to get another club to take him. Cordero is so expensive, only a handful of teams could afford him. As far as Taveras, do I really have to explain why he’d be hard to trade.
That leaves Phillips and Arroyo.
My advice in both cases is don’t do it. One caveat: If the Marlins want to trade Hanley Ramirez for either, do it. But I think trading either for prospects – or even young, unproven big leaguers – would be foolish.
Definitely a good argument.
I started wondering about this yesterday
I starting trying to think if there was a clear reason to keep Phillips this off-season. It seems pretty clear to me that the Reds aren’t in a position to compete for 2010. Right? Plus we’ve got a fairly strong prospect at 2b waiting in the wings. Is there a strong enought reason not to unload Phillips for a couple more strong prospects at key positions?
by ben nevis on Nov 15, 2009 9:46 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
The best reason:
We could move him to shortstop.
by Brendanukkah on Nov 15, 2009 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
The return for BP might not be so great, given the $$ owed
He’s owed about 19M over the next two years including a buyout for 2012.** He’s worth it as a 3-4 win player, but it’s not like he’ll be such a great deal that we can expet to get any strong prospects in return.
I also get the feeling that teams don’t look to make a big trade for a 2B. It seems like a fallback position where teams will convert another position player (Shumaker, Iwamura) if they don’t have a strong incumbent. I could be forgetting someone obvious but I can’t recall a major 2B traded in his prime recently.
- Per Cot’s, the 2012 team option becomes mutual if he’s traded. I’ve never understood what’s the point of a mutual option – why not just renegotiate?
well
There was Alfonso Soriano. Who’s now an outfielder.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
wow, 84 OPS+ last year
how long until that contract just really starts to suck? Can they put him, Bradley, and Kosuke in the all-overpaid opening day lineup?
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
How great would it be if Phillips played SS for the Fish, but not for us
That’d be up there with Dunn playing 1B for the D’Backs and Nationals, but not for us
by Highlifeman21 on Nov 15, 2009 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
Opportunities knock for Yanks & Mets as others tighten fists
The GM Meetings lasted just one whole day and parts of two others in a Chicago airport hotel that had all the charm of Eric Mangini.
"By the time you unpacked, you were packing again," one general manager said. "They [the m eetings] were short and [bleep]. They were not conducive to baseball discussions."
By scheduling such a brief gathering in a dreary setting, the Commissioner’s Office could have been trying to avoid looking tone deaf. The meetings usually are held at an opulent resort, which would be a bad postcard for baseball with such financial distress across the map. Or this was the very real belt-tightening by an industry that felt the first jabs of the economic downturn last year and fear worse coming.
Joel Sherman thinks the Mets might take Arroyo and Taveras off the Reds’ hands…if the Reds gave up BP, too.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
didn't somebody point out that the per/room cost difference
between the resort the meetings were held at last year, and the O’Hare Hilton is not that much. I feel like this is more of a symbolic move than actually a sign of a financial crisis.
And Chicago weather has been relatively lovely over the last few days, I’ve been wearing a jacket and tee-shirt. It could be much worse in mid-November.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Nov 15, 2009 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
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