Free Agent Options: Shortstops
by Slyde on Nov 10, 2009 7:30 AM EST
in Off-season
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PrintAs Walt Jocketty spends his time in Chicago, cozying up to the other GMs for a long Winter's nap season of dealing, he appears to have two priorities on his mind: shortstop and catcher. The Reds had reportedly been trying to deal with the Brewers for J.J. Hardy, but those talks didn't get anywhere and now Hardy is in Minnesota, likely to be the starting shortstop for the opening of the new Target Field.
The Reds could stick with Paul Janish and hope for the best, but his combined batting line of .231/.317/.332 over the last 3 years in the Majors and Minors doesn't exactly instill a bunch of confidence in his ability to be the everyday shortstop for a contending team. Not that he is without his positives. He could potentially be on one of the top 5 defensive shortstops in the league. Based upon his very small sample in the big leagues, he's been doing quite well. He's posted a UZR of 9.9 in 118 big league games at shortstop - hardly enough of a sample to know what his true talent level is, but if it is anywhere around 10, he's one of the best. On a team that could be struggling to generate offense though, his defense may not be enough to make up for that putrid offense.
So, what are some of the options out there for the Reds to fill the need at shortstop? While they could still make a trade, it's hard to know at this point who (Hanley Ramirez) might be available. We do know who should be free agents though, so let's look at them.
According to Cots, there are 12 possible free agent shortstops available this off-season. I doubt that anybody seriously considers Juan Castro, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Ramon Martinez, or John McDonald as much of an option as an everyday starter at shortstop. I don't really feel like discussing Alex Gonzalez for fear that the Reds might read this and misconstrue it as a desire to have him back on the team. Adam Everett can still do a pretty good job of picking it in the field, but honestly, he's just an older, more injury-prone version of Janish. And Kahlil Greene is a decent bet to hit better than Janish, but his 3 year average for UZR puts him at about 8 runs below the average shortstop defensively. Given that even at his best, he's basically a league average hitter, I wouldn't say he's worth it.
That leaves us with four possibilities on the free agent market: Orlando Cabrera, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, and Jack Wilson. We'll take a look at each after the jump.
Orland Cabrera
I would have loved for the Reds to sign Cabrera a couple of years ago, but I'm a little leery of signing a 35-year old shortstop coming off of a bad season. Cabrera was only slightly above replacement-level last year (0.6 WAR) and that's mainly because he played a difficult position. His 3-year average UZR puts him at about 2.5 runs above average, which isn't bad for a shortstop, but his age leaves me concerned that his defensive skills may have deteriorated more than a 3-year average might indicate (his UZR in 2009 was -15.3). Offensively, he's much better than Janish, even in a bad season, but his wOBA has dropped each of the last 3 seasons from a career high of .331 (about league average) in 2007 to .316 in 2008 to .310 in 2009. He's definitely not trending the right way.
When I would take him: I haven't been too positive on Cabrera, but I would take him on a one-year deal for at most $3 million (he made $4 million on a one-year deal last year). The biggest problem that I see with him as an option is that if his defense has gone, his reputation as a great defender will precede him, which means that he'll never be taken out for a defensive replacement. He's not good enough on offense or defense to justify that.
Marco Scutaro
The first thing that jumps out at me for Scutaro is the red flag of an outlier year. Actually it would be an outlier 2 years. As a 33-year old, Scutaro put up his best season in 2009 (4.5 WAR), topping his previous best season of 2008 (2.7 WAR), which topped his previous best season of, well, he was never really that good before then. He is exactly the type of player the Reds should shy away from, if you ask me. It's not normal for players to suddenly get better and turn in All Star performances in their early or mid-30s. He is a high risk for a fall-off from his 2009 season, but baseball doesn't tend to pay players that way. I'm guessing that Scutaro will get paid as if he has found a new level, and I'm also guessing that won't turn out to be a good contract.
When I would take him: That's not to say that I wouldn't consider signing him. I wouldn't give him anymore than 2 guaranteed years though, and I wouldn't want any of his years to be worth more than $6 million. On the positive side, Scutaro increased his plate discipline dramatically last year, and that seems to have had a great affect on his output. His BABIP actually appears to be in line with expectation, so I wouldn't say his season was obviously fluky at the plate. However, the Reds don't exactly have a reputation for fostering patience at the plate. Defensively, he appears to be good enough that if he can stay around league average offensively, he could be worth 2-2.5 wins. I'm just not convinced that his offense is real yet.
Miguel Tejada
The real issue with Tejada is salary expectations. He has averaged $12 million a year over the last 4 years, and I would imagine that he's not going to be willing to take an overly dramatic paycut next year unless the market forces it on him. He is likely the best offensive option for shortstop available this off-season. He definitely doesn't have the output of his, ahem, prime years, but he's been slightly better than average over 2 of the last 3 years, and I think he's a safe bet to be somewhere close to average in 2010. The big concern offensively is that he only walked 19 times in over 635 plate appearances last year. Dusty Baker may like that, but it scares the bejeezus out of me. He did balance that with just 48 strikeouts, so at least he's putting the ball in play. And he's probably still good for 30+ doubles and 15 HR, which could give the offense a little bit of a boost. Defensively, he's below average (probably around 4 runs below average), but I think it's well enough known that he's not a defensive master that Baker would likely use Janish as a defensive replacement for him.
When I would take him: With Tejada, the Reds best hope is that he has too high of expectations for what kind of money he can get and he is forced to take a one-year "prove yourself" deal. If I'm Jocketty, I'm lurking around Tejada, ready to swoop in and make a deal at the first sign of this possibility. I'm not too worried about the money on a one-year deal because I think Tejada would make Gomes somewhat expendable, though it'd definitely be nice to have both. I'm not sure I would do multi-years for Tejada, mainly because I expect he'll be changing positions in the next year or two.
Jack Wilson
Wilson actually has an option that still needs to be declined, but I have a hard time believing that the Mariners want to pay him $8.4 million in 2010. Wilson might be an odd choice for the Reds to consider because he's basically a slightly better version of Janish, but he'll likely cost a few million more. However, Wilson is a somewhat better hitter than Janish, and has been much better at times. That potential could make him attractive as a free agent, especially since his worst season after his rookie year is still considerably better than what Janish has done as a big leaguer. Defensively, Wilson is close to as good as his reputation, and that's the most you can ask for a player that makes announcers go ga ga over his defense. The downside of Wilson is that there is no way you'll get Baker to move him out of the 2-spot in the lineup.
When I would take him: Something that I haven't mentioned yet, but is actually very important in these considerations is the type of free agent each of these guys are. Cabrera, Scutaro,and Tejada are all Type-A free agents, which means that if their respective teams offer them arbitration and they decline and sign with a new team, the new team will have to give up their first round pick. The caveat to this is if that pick is in the first 15, then they'd have to give up their 2nd round pick. So, if the Reds, who have the 12th pick in the draft, sign any of the previous players, they'd likely have to give up their 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft. It's not a enormous sacrifice, but still a big consideration. (EDIT: It appears that Cabrera is not a risk to be offered arbitration as his contract states that the Twins cannot offer arbitration to him, so signing him will not mean draft picks. Thanks to Thundering Turtle for the clarification.)
Wilson is not a Type-A free agent. He has however managed to be a league average players (about 2 WAR) over the last 3 seasons. This is because the Elias Rankings that determine the type of free agency don't take defensive value into account. Wilson is a very good defender with at least some possibility to be a decent, though not great hitter. Since the Reds wouldn't have to give up any draft picks, that should make him even more attractive. I'd consider him over Janish mainly because I think Wilson has a better chance to be average at his position. I suspect though that he'll be looking for a multi-year deal. Even if the deal is a cheap one, I really wouldn't want someone like him blocking Zack Cozart, who frankly looks like a much younger, cheaper version of Wilson.
What do you think? Do any of these guys do it for you at shortstop?
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In Cabrera's favor, no draft pick compensation will be necessary.
His contract stipulated that the Twins were prohibited from offering him arbitration. Good move by his agent, as it prevents the potential loss of a high draft choice from scaring teams away from signing Cabrera.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Nov 10, 2009 8:11 AM EST reply actions
Slyde, that was a great read and analysis
I like the Jack Wilson idea, but I doubt he signs a less than year deal and I can’t see a reason to give him that kind of commitment.
I agree
I’m not certain that I’d take any of these guys – all of them have big questions marks, mostly doing with age – but I think all 4 are worth considering, and I would hope that Jocketty would inquire about all of them. I just don’t see Janish cutting it everyday at shortstop and Cozart and Valaika are not ready to replace him.
Definitely a good argument.
I hope this doesn't sound snippy...
So what would you do?
You’re “not certain” that you want a free agent but you’re also opposed to relying on what we’ve got. Slyde, get us out from between this rock and that hard place!
"If you have a spaceship and are looking for a hilarious astronaut with an irregular heartbeat and thirty million dollars, I am prepared to leave as soon as tomorrow."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 10, 2009 9:21 AM EST up reply actions
None of this would have happened if he hadn't made such a big deal
about lolcats.
by Brendanukkah on Nov 10, 2009 9:48 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The problem is that I have no idea (NONE!) of the free agent prices are going to be like this off-season
So, this is probably the the top contract I would give to each player:
Cabrera – 1yr/$4M, with maybe an option for a 2nd year at $4M
Scutaro – 2yr/$12M, with up to 2 more option years, but I don’t think there is any way the Reds spend that amount of money
Tejada – 1yr/$8M, I wouldn’t give him multiple years because of the money, so this would be based on him signing late out of desperation
Wilson – 2yr/$9M or 1yr/$5.5
I have no idea if these numbers are realistic at all. They definitely aren’t valued at the market price on FanGraphs, but I don’t think every player is worth the same amount to every team. The Reds have a better than replacement level option at shortstop who is real cheap, so it’s not necessarily like they are screwed at the position. To me, that says, don’t overspend, but try to be competitive with your offers.
Definitely a good argument.
Something I forgot to mention on Tejada
He’s still owed $2M each of the next 2 seasons from a signing bonus – a number that will be paid by either Baltimore or Houston. So, he might find himself asking for a reduced rate anyway, since he’s gonna be getting paid a bit as it is.
Definitely a good argument.
I wonder if Houston will offer him arb
It’d be risky given how much he makes now. I don’t think the 20% rule applies to those who could be FAs, but if Tejada asks for 11M after a .314/14/83 year, he’ll have a good shot at it.
I really don't think the Reds will go for any of those amounts, except maybe Cabrera
and he’s the one I want the least.
That’s why I was so bummed about Hardy. I don’t see a FA SS in the works for this team on this budget.
If I hear the word 'perky' again, I'll puke-Katie Couric
Nice avatar.
You do seem more perky since the bet.
People always asking, 'Uncle Jemima, why you sell booze?' I say 'sell whatchu know' and I knows about booze.
by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Nov 10, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
Janish
I may be giving Janish too much benefit of the doubt, but I think his hitting has been depressed by (1) flukishly low babip’s (under .250), and (2) inconsistent use by Dusty. He’s a decent contact hitter with some speed and plate discipline. Given a steady job and better luck, I think he’ll put up bad but not embarassing numbers. Bill James projects him at as a .276 wOBA for next year, which is about the same as this year’s. I think something closer to .300 is realistic.
As for his fielding, I think you’re slightly understating his comparative advantage in the NL. Last year, only Furcal and Theriot were well above-average (among next year’s starters), and Furcal’s UZR was way better than his prior few years. If Janish starts I think he’s among the best in the league along with Brendan Ryan and maybe Theriot. I’d like to see Janish get the nod for next year (particularly because I don’t see us contending) and then see how Cozart does with a full year in Louisville.
But if I had to pick one of the four as a one-year placeholder, I’d go with Tejada because he can still hit. His UZR last year was abysmal but might be flukish – he was almost ten runs positive the year before. Plus, isn’t he BFF’s with Raymon? Bring him back and the clubhouse chemistry will be palpable! Like you said about Cabrera, he’s trending down consistently at this point. Scutaro’s likely to regress, and Wilson hasn’t hit since ’07.
I agree
I think he’s bound to perform better than he has so far, given a daily starting job. The question is, how much better? Also, can he maintain his defense enough to make it worth it? I honestly think he’d be the most cost effective solution next year, but if you desperately need a bunch of offense from your SS, then you’d need someone else.
Problem is, I don’t trust any of the FAs either. Also, if Fay and others assume Gomes won’t be offered arb., what makes anyone think any of these guys will be pursued, even if it’s for only 2-4 million?
If I hear the word 'perky' again, I'll puke-Katie Couric
I agree on Tejada
but the question is, what kind of “chemistry” would he be bringing to the clubhouse? Get it? Because he did steroids, and that is from chemists? Is this thing on?
ZiPS has Janish at .239/.310/.340, which is basically what he’s done over the last 3 seasons combined. I’m not convinced that he can put up a .300 wOBA. I’m not sure what I’m understating about his defense. I said he’s probably one of the top 5 defenders in the league.
Definitely a good argument.
Glad my chemistry joke wasn't too subtle
If you boost Janish’s ’09 babip to about 300, his average rises to about 250. Which would have increased his raw OPS by about 100 points and put him in the .300 wOBA range. Hopefully Janish also gets a boost from seeing regular playing time. The defense quibble was minor – I put him in the top three rather than five in the league. Just sounds a little better.
Janish
got regular playing time from the middle of August on and hit .176 in September/October. His BaBip is lousy because he hits too many fly balls and doesn’t have any real power. People are dreaming to expect him to shoot up 40 points in BA; he couldn’t hit .250 in AA, why do people keep thinking he’s going to do it in the bigs when we have 300+ ABs telling us differently?
300+ AB isn't enough sample to tell us if a guy who hit .211 is really a .270 hitter
I’m not arguing that Janish is a good hitter, but you are using small sample sizes against small sample sizes and then stating that the one that supports your side of the argument is right.
Definitely a good argument.
I should clarify
The real argument against Janish isn’t that he didn’t hit .250 in 400 double-A at bats. The best argument against Janish is that even at his best, he was a below average hitter in the minors.
I just get tired of people arguing that their 300 AB sample is the real thing, not someone else’s small sample example.
Definitely a good argument.
Shrug
The data is what it is; the Janish sample size is all we have as far as his hitting goes. Speculation by other posters that he will magically improve his game is completely unwarranted by his history including his most recent history i.e. the end of last season when he was given the SS job virtually every day for almost two months and regressed offensively.
we have his minor league numbers
Which are probably a better representation of what he can do, simply because the sample size is much larger.
He’s not gonna be A-Rod, I think everyone agrees on that. But it’s likely he’ll hit better than he has so far, given a larger sample size. At 27, he’s just reaching his hitting peak. (And on the downslope defensively, probably, but that’s another story.)
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
That's the thing
the data is what it is, but not necessarily what it will be. The whole point of the sample size argument is that we don’t have enough MLB data to determine what Janish’s true MLB offensive level is. I’m not convinced that he’ll be much more than a .240/.310/.340 type hitter, but that’s based more on his minor league numbers than what he did last season.
BTW (to all involved in this discussion), based on his batted ball distribution in 2009, a normal BABIP for Janish would have been .284, instead of .247. That would have given him a .242/.324/.336, which frankly is still not very good. However, I don’t think it is such a big leap to think that he can become a .250+ hitter with a bit of luck. The issue is that he has no power, so it will be a fairly empty .250.
Definitely a good argument.
What Data
Supports the idea that a .245 AA hitter is going to be a .245 MLB hitter? It seems to me a 30 point difference such as Janish has displayed is something that can be expected. Janish doesn’t have a big major league sample size because he has been accurately gauged to be a weak bat; give him a nice, big sample size and the overwhelming probability is he’ll stink.
Why is it that his AA numbers only matter?
He had 400 plate appearances in double-A. He had 2017 plate appearances overall in the minors and was a .261/.351/.382 hitter. You are regressing a player from one season of minor league data that was 2 years ago. I’m regressing him from his whole minor league career. (Technically, it is ZiPS that is regressing him, not me) And if he had had a normal BABIP based on his batted ball distribution, he would have batted .242 last year. You have to agree that there was some bad luck in his numbers last year, no?
Definitely a good argument.
No, I don't
He hits a very high percentage of balls in the air and has no real power – I doubt his “batted ball distribution” shows how many weak fly balls he hits. That translates to a low BaBip. I guess he’s had bad luck ever since he got out of A ball. You’re using his A ball numbers to juice up his minor league totals, but I see no reason to consider that because he had one good hitting year in the low minors that means that he can be a decent hitter in the majors. The guy was the worst hitting regular SS in the NL last year and will be again if the Reds are foolish enough to make him the starter. So everybody else is going to have to cover his ass apparently because we’d rather toss $3-4 million fucking dollars to Ramon Hernandez than get a SS who knows how to use a bat.
You haven't weighed in
on who you think we should get.
I’m not convinced Ramon’s salary would buy us a SS who’s an improvement on Janish.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I'd prefer
Cabrera as I think he’s a good second place hitter (he killed the ball with a man on first and hitting to RF) and I really don’t think his D has deteriorated that much. Give me a .280 hitter with some pop and a little speed. Plus I think he can be got with $3-4 million for a one year.
by no1marauder on Nov 11, 2009 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
I've never said he could be a decent hitter in the Majors
All I’m arguing is that 2009 isn’t necessarily indicative of what he will do next season and that it’s not unreasonable to think that he could hit .250 (and again, it would be a weak, empty .250). It wouldn’t be “magical” as you have described it.
Definitely a good argument.
this is my thinking
i dont think any player available is going to be worth ~$3 mil more than Janish, so i think we should stick with him. especially with such a tight budget, we need to maximize the efficiency of every available dollar. that probably means bringing back Gomes and Corky Miller and calling it an offseason.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 10, 2009 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think that team is competitive next year
not that I think the Reds will be competitive signing any of these players by themselves, but bringing back the same team and hoping for different results won’t get us anywhere.
Definitely a good argument.
likely not
but otherwise i think they are just wasting money for marginal gains. unless they dismantle the team, shed the big contracts, and get heaps of ML-ready-talent in return, and get extremely lucky, they wont compete. otherwise…
we wait for next season
by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 10, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
I'm tired of that story
And I don’t believe they are THAT far from being competitive. I think if you add Tejada and bring back Gomes, they could in the division race.
Definitely a good argument.
Wilson
I think that Seattle will exercise Wilson’s option. They arent really a team that needs to be thrifty like the Reds, Pirates or Brewers might need to be. And they dont have anything ready to go at SS to fill the void left.
I think for Cincy, the best bets, if they pursue a FA SS, is to either sign Cabrera to a 1 year deal or a 2 year one for Tejada. At the very worst, they will be standings neutral acquisitions. And at best, the team improves by anywhere from 1 to 3 games.
Jannish looks like a he could be a better choice than any of the 4 candidates talked about here.
He’d be OK if the Reds were stronger and more consistent offensively.There are still some big ifs for 2010for Jannish to be usable:
Will Stubbs hit (will he have to share with Wily)
Will Gomes get signed and can he produce well for 162 games
Will Hanigan hit like he did before he got hurt
Will the real Jay Bruce please stand up, please stand up
Will Joey Votto continue his torrid pace.
If these 5 guys produce at consistently high levels then obviously Jannish is the man. Tough decisions for Walt. I’d sure be looking for a SS if I were him.And don’t forget the SS bats second.
I gave up working out. My philosophy: No pain... no pain. ...
Mads.
Excellent summary
Does C-Dick fit into the Gomes/Stubbs question?
If GoStubDick is our LF/CF combination, is that enough offense to sustain a Janish as SS?
"Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!"
by "Red" Moskau on Nov 10, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
Would the improvement
be worth the dollars? I don’t think so. This is a team that will live and die by its pitching, and the best thing they can do to support that pitching is to keep a strong defense. Jannish makes this maybe the strongest infield defense in all of baseball. This team isn’t gonna slug their way to wins, even with ARod at short. Stick with what you do best.
The man who will one day be President is, at this moment, lying in his cradle, trying to find some strategic way to get his big toe in his mouth.
-Mark Twain
Execpt first base
Lets face it. Votto does have an Achilles heel, and its D. We should hire that guy with the flaming bow and arrow from the DirectTv commercials.
It's not THAT bad
I thought he was around league average defensively?
Fangraphs has him at 10.5 UZR/150 at ‘08 and -2.1 in ’09, so with SSS and all, I figure he’s still pretty legit
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
Votto
had a reputation for being bad on defense in the minors. But he’s been serviceable enough since he was called up. SSS, of course.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I like Crosby
I would guess they give one of the Juan Castro, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Ramon Martinez, or John McDonald types a minor league deal and let him try to win a roster spot. Out of this list I like Crosby the best option, given he’s 29 and a former rookie of the year looking to make a rebound. Sounds kind of like Gomes to me…
Crosby's numbers for 7 seasons show him as an older probably less mobile Jannish
.238/.305/.378. with an OPS of .683 which is slightly better than PJ. But Jannish is way the better fielder. I don’t see Crosby as a significant enough offensive improvement and that’s what the Reds need – offense. improvement ay SS, LF, CF, C and RF.
"What's wrong with being a boring kind of guy?"
George W Bush
And that's REALLY the question...
I know Slyde is just giving us a well-framed scenario to discuss, but the question Uncle Walt has to answer is “How do I get more offense into the lineup?”
Mads astutely recognizes that 3B, 2B, 1B are locked up and not an option.
SS is open because of PJ’s tiny little bat.
C is open because Hanigan had a low RBI total and his BA/OBP plummeted as the game total added up.
How many OF positions are open? Depends on whethery you think Bruce is an everyday RF (me-thinks “Yes”). If Stubbs (lack of seasoning/flukey HR rate?) and Dickerson (injury-L/R splits) aren’t 140+ game options with enough offensive production, does Gomes give you enough to compete when he’s mixed in? If not, then you have 1-2 OF spots available— but not long term because you have to fit Yonder/Francisco/Frazier/Votto into the LF/1B slot soon.
And the question evolves to: “Is there a SS/C/OF FA with enough bat at the right price to let this team improve/compete next year?”
With the picture Slyde painted, I’m gonna’ troll through the C and OF FA’s before I sign one of this group.
"Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!"
by "Red" Moskau on Nov 10, 2009 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not convinced that Crosby will hit
any better than Janish. Even if he does, the drop off in defense probably negates it. If the Reds can’t acquire someone with a significantly better bat, then Janish is the guy for 2010.
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by Thundering Turtle on Nov 10, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
Are there any decent non-JJ Hardy trade targets
either at the MLB level or in MLB-ready prospects blocked by someone in the big leagues? The move might end up amounting to another rebuilding half-measure that sacrifices talent needed to compete for next year, but maybe they could get lucky. I’m guessing there aren’t as many Jonny Gomeses or Wlad Balentiens floating around that play a good SS.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 10, 2009 11:12 AM EST reply actions
The Minneapolis paper reported today
that the Twins want Cabrera to return and move to 2B. Not sure if he’ll do that, but could be.
There’s not a lot on the trade market, either. Cristian Guzman probably could be had, but he’s expensive and the Nats want him to move to 2B, so that’s telling about his defense. We’ve knocked around Reid Brignac, Erick Aybar and the like before. They’d be difficult to acquire.
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by Thundering Turtle on Nov 10, 2009 11:22 AM EST reply actions
Go after Aybar
With both Izturis and Aybar on the roster I think the Angels could be convinced to give up one of them.
Phillips and Harang for Kendrick, Aybar and Wood.
The Angels get a SP and a great 2B. They don’t have much of a drop off at SS with Izturis. They get rid of Kendrick. There seems to be no room on the roster for Wood.
Then turn around and trade the farm for Webb and Montero (Alonzo, Heisey, Mesoraco, Frazier and Wood if necessary).
SP still with the Reds (Webb, Arroyo (2010), Cueto, Volquez (2011+), Leake, Bailey)
Position players long term: 1B Votto, 2B Kendrick, SS Aybar, OF Stubbs, Bruce, Dickerson, Francisco, Wood, C Montero, Hannigan
Short Term: 3B Rolen
That would be a competitive enough staff to compete every year.
It'd be great to trick the Angels into giving up Aybar somehow
but no way do they part with the middle infield of their playoff team and a former top prospect who still has tons of upside for Harang and Phillips. Wood is out of options also, so you’d have to find a place for him to play him for it to be worthwhile.
I agree it would yield a decent team in the short and medium term, but the first trade is implausible and the second would essentially wipe out any progress the farm system has gained on the assumption that Montero, Bruce, Kendrick, Aybar et al. would be reliable fixtures for the team.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 10, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
Stick with Janish
He is solid on defense and mediocre at the plate, however that is how most shortstops are. We have plenty of pop around the infield with Votto, Phillips, and Rolen. I say stick with Janish and bring up the best prospect to back him up. That saves salary cap space and could allow for a different position (starting pitcher in my case) to be sought after.
Mediocre
is somewhere near average. Janish was last among regular NL SS in BA, SLG and 2nd to last in OBP. He is the worst hitting SS in the league by far. The team needs to increase its offensive production and SS is the one position where this can be rather easily done at a reasonable price. I personally don’t believe that OC has all of a sudden become a terrible SS because there was a big shift in his UZR from 2008 to 2009.
The barely spoken issue here is that we have a potential good SS who could be ready by September in Cozart
It would be really dumb to sign anyone to more than a 1 year deal, and anyone worth having is going to require more than that.
If I hear the word 'perky' again, I'll puke
This is my thought as well.
If I’m Walt, I go after Tejada for a one-year deal, knowing full well that I probably won’t need him after that’s done with. He provides another tough out in the middle of the lineup, and won’t kill you defensively. Janish becomes a textbook defensive replacement, and Cozart comes up in September to much fanfare and accolade.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Nov 10, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
I'm all for prospects
but Cozart doesn’t inspire me as someone that I avoid blocking at all costs.
Definitely a good argument.
Not necessarily
But we’ve already been burned on 2-year deals, namely the one for one Willy Taveras. Do we need a long-term solution at SS?
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Nov 10, 2009 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe,
but even though it’s far from definite, I REALLY don’t want another situation this time next year like we have with Taveras/Stubbs this year (I know, I know, Dickerson too)
Plus, “avoid blocking at all costs” implies we’d be foregoing signing a legit above average player in favor of Cozart, which clearly wouldn’t be the case. Also, if we go with Janish this year, and both he and Cozart prove to be bad options in a year, we could potentially go after a real SS, not some 2 year overpriced stopgap. It’s that kind of shit that keeps holding this team back.
If I hear the word 'perky' again, I'll puke
by nycredsfan on Nov 10, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I've never heard Katie use that kind of language!
"Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!"
by "Red" Moskau on Nov 10, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
Taveras seems to be an especially bad situation.
I’m not sure every 2 year deal is as bad as that one has turned out to be.
"If it wasn't this, it'd be something else."
Mike Lincoln, Mike Stanton
but let’s not forget Arthur Rhodes.
Al Gore didn't invent the internet. But he did more for the internet than probably anyone you'll ever meet.
by PeteyHendrix on Nov 10, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
but a bad-fielding Tejada can be moved to LF
I actually had that idea back when the Reds looked good this year. I wouldn’t be opposed to a 2-year deal for Tejada with the understanding that if Jannish or Cozart become revalatory, he can move to LF
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
Mads...
you’re actually kinda like Athur around here.
"If you have a spaceship and are looking for a hilarious astronaut with an irregular heartbeat and thirty million dollars, I am prepared to leave as soon as tomorrow."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 10, 2009 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
Fan Scouting Report
As a contrast to the three-year UZR that Slyde reported, here are Fan Scouting Data. I find these particularly helpful where we either have a small sample, or we’re concerned about a big age-related drop-off in fielding skill.
Orlando Cabrera – 39 & 40 out of 61 (rated at MIN and OAK), rating is 3.31 compared to average SS at 3.56. Below average.
Marco Scutaro – 17 out of 61, rating is 4.11 vs. average 3.56. Above average.
Miguel Tejada – 33 out of 61, rating is 3.54 vs. average 3.56. Average.
Jack Wilson – 7 & 8 out of 61, rating is 4.38 vs. average 3.56. Well above average.
I love that the two “orlando cabreras” and the two “jack wilsons” were rated in identical fashion by two independent sets of fans. Another indication that these data are pretty darn reliable. And they also match up well to what UZR tells about these guys, though they’re noticeably more optimistic about Tejada. And that’s coming from Houston fans, who have seen quality defense before in Adam Everett.
The data do indicate that Cabrera may be slipping. And keep in mind that historically good, aging fielders tend to be rated well a few years longer by the Fans than UZR thinks is appropriate. So his 2009 UZR might be right, in which case the Reds need to stay away.
I still think that the thing to do is move Phillips to SS and give Frazier a go at 2B. But I’ve said that before, as have hundreds of others.
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
by JinAZ on Nov 10, 2009 12:53 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Link to FSR
Meant to include this above, forgot.
http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/index6.php?prim_fld_cd=6
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
This is cool
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 10, 2009 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
I'm basically at the point that I weight Fan Scouting Report data equally with UZR
UZR is more objective, but you need massive samples (3 years?) to get reliable data. FSR data is more subjective, but by focusing on skills rather than overall assessments, I think it’s better than most folks give it credit for. And it seems to be more reliable, especially when dealing with small samples.
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
I'll admit that I don't trust the FSR
not that I think it is wrong, but I’m just not comfortable with the wisdom of the crowds concept as a comparative metric, especially for more lower profile players. That’s why I don’t reference it much. It’s totally a comfort factor.
Definitely a good argument.
also
most, if not all, of the participants in the FSR are stat-savvy folks like yours truly. im aware of Bruce’s UZR numbers and, whether im conscious of it or not, it affects my judgment of him.
all that being said, i still like the FSR. i dont like it as much as standard metrics, but it has it’s own 2 cents.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 11, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
There's that
And there’s also relying on people watching the games on TV. Especially with outfielders it’s hard to gauge whether a guy made a great play or if he got a bad break on the ball.
BTW
According to twitter, Orlando Hudson is going to win the Gold Glove at 2B this year. Does this mean we can move BP to shortstop? As an aside, I wouldn’t mind signing Hudson and then moving BP to SS.
Definitely a good argument.
Boo
I know that it’s hard to lose a GG once you get a few, but I thought Brandon’s award last year would break the O-Dawg stranglehold. FWIW Hudson and Phillips have the same number of errors (9) and fielding pct (.988) this year. Phillips played in six more games at second.
Nice read Slyde
I’d say Wilson would be the way to go until Cozart shows up for class. Janish, as much as I do enjoy watching him work, Is the quent-essential LIDR.
A possible upgrade in the OF
Corey Patterson filed for free agency! We ought to get him, he’d be better than Willy T!
"If it wasn't this, it'd be something else."
Is a vomit sandwich really better than a shit sandwich?
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Nov 10, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe, maybe not...
But if you’re eating either one, you’re in trouble.
"If it wasn't this, it'd be something else."
Sounds like another trip to the Mt. Adams Grill is in order to find out!
by Brendanukkah on Nov 10, 2009 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
That's really, really not a good idea.
Our service became noticeably worse when the waitress overheard us cutting down the burgers we ate. And we didn’t even have any loud bitches with us!
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Nov 10, 2009 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
BK - once agin distills everything down to one single sentence.
Geunius
"What's wrong with being a boring kind of guy?"
George W Bush
I'm holding out
for Austin Kearns.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Wilson might be off the table soon
MLBTradeRumors.com: Mariners make offer
People always asking, 'Uncle Jemima, why you sell booze?' I say 'sell whatchu know' and I knows about booze.
by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Nov 10, 2009 2:18 PM EST reply actions
FWIW
This article at BtB puts Tejada well above average for SS production offensively. Scutaro was well above last year, but only slightly above for his career. Cabrera was just below average and Wilson is a tick above replacement level. Janish has been below replacement level offensively for shortstops.
Definitely a good argument.
Great work, Slyde...
You’re using up all the good topics before we even get out of November!
Given the picture you’ve painted, I pass on the FA SS and look to the OF and C for a 1-2 year offensive upgrade— emphasis on OPS over speed.
If I have to pick a SS, I make like Tom Hanks:
"Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!"
Jocketty said on the HSL tonight on WLW......
……that they were close to re-signing Ramon Hernandez at catcher, which gives them more offense. He said they needed atleast either catcher or SS to give them some offense, and that if Ramon signed, they could probably live with Janish because of his defense. Also alluded it would be a stopgap until Cozart is ready, and then pointed out how well Zach is doing in the AFL. Good stuff.
um
Is Ramon really an improvement over Hanigan?
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
ZiPS projections
Ramon: .255/.324/.385
Hanigan: .267/.347/.357
ZiPS puts the odds of being a better player slightly in Ramon’s favor, but then also gives Hanigan a 10% better chance at hitting .300 or posting a .375 OBP.
I’m fine with the two sharing the position, especially if Hernandez is making less than $4 million, but I’m afraid that with Dusty it will be a 75/25 split in Ramon’s favor, and I don’t think that is a good decision.
Definitely a good argument.
You're prolly right that Dusty will play Ramon at C more than he should.
But don’t forget about the need for someone to play first when Joey gets dizzy.
"If you have a spaceship and are looking for a hilarious astronaut with an irregular heartbeat and thirty million dollars, I am prepared to leave as soon as tomorrow."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 10, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
I would hesitate to say that Yonder's ready to play at the major level.
The guy spent most of last year recovering from an injury. I’d prefer to give him some time in AAA first.
Actually, I’d prefer to let him build up a reputation in AAA so we can trade him at the deadline.
"If it wasn't this, it'd be something else."
I'd love it.
But I doubt you could convince Walt and Dusty that he’s veteran presence-y enough to handle a couple-few weeks of hot NL Central pennant-chasing action.
"If you have a spaceship and are looking for a hilarious astronaut with an irregular heartbeat and thirty million dollars, I am prepared to leave as soon as tomorrow."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 10, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
Cozart is doing well in the AFL
but he also posted a .758 OPS in double-A last year. We as a group probably could stand to rein in the excitement for him a tad.
Definitely a good argument.
Don't be ridiculous.
Unwarranted optimism is what gives us hope.
"If it wasn't this, it'd be something else."
"If you have a spaceship and are looking for a hilarious astronaut with an irregular heartbeat and thirty million dollars, I am prepared to leave as soon as tomorrow."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 10, 2009 9:51 PM EST up reply actions
Good Lord your sense of humor is too sophisticated por moi
"What's wrong with being a boring kind of guy?"
George W Bush
Problem with all this analysis - overdone
I like the way that all the numbers forecast the future when over and over, they are proven wrong… drew stubbs hits 3 HR in 472 AB in AAA, Janish hits 7 in 365… they both bat for avg around the same…. stubbs hits 8 HR in 180 AB at 2nd half of season and never in his career is he a HR hitter… Janish hits 1 and bats .211 for the year,… Stubbs is the 2nd coming, Janish of course cant hit… we have proof..
A-Rod (1 of many examples) hits, .204 first year, .232 2nd year, over 200 ab cum.. and he is the worlds best baseball player.. maybe Seattle should have traded for someone else, after all he couldn’t hit MLB pitching. those stats PROVED it.. no HR his first year.. poor average the 2nd year. Just think if they didn’t use him in year 3? Well it’s Janish’s year 3.. I am not claiming he is A-Rod, all I am claiming is stats are for pencil pushers … I played pro ball and barely scratched the minors,,, there are so many factors to consider.. the diff between .250 and .300 is minuscule, yet in $$ and reputation it is worldly .. BA is not a good indicator of player value, its a marketing tool. You have to measure defense, attitude, clutch, speed, contact, etc.. all these knuckleheads that claim a .260 hitter that has 10 yrs in the majors would benefit the Reds more than a .210 hitter with less than 1 year have absolutely no clue. in addition, the past is NOT an indicator of the future, typically the opposite.. rookies continue to surpass history and many 35+ veterans slide below history.. and cost much much more.. in fact, along with the MLBPA support, they are paid more for name recognition, yrs, and not actual performance. So all I can say is keep playing with the numbers, its meaningless, and unless you have looked these guys in the eyes, say with them on the bench, and know thier work ethics, you cant use any of the aforementioned BS in this blog to compare these guys..
by ahhh on Dec 10, 2009 6:28 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
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