Red Reposter - Did the Injuries Really Break This Team?
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 8, 2009 10:46 AM EDT
in News
161 comments
Now that the regular season is over, the Reposter will be scaled back a bit. There is no shortage of things to talk about during the season, but now that our favorite baseball team has shut it down for the winter few people out there on the mainframes are not talking about them. So I get a nice respite. I'll still try to keep the Reposter going a few times a week, but mostly I'll be catching up on the work that has been piling up for my real job over the past 6 months. Anyway, here's your stories for the day:
-
The over-arching narrative of this season we are hearing from the Reds and the media
is that injuries derailed an otherwise promising team. What do you think? Answer in the poll below! -
Greg over at RLN takes a glance at a list of possible non-tender candidates
MLBtraderumors talked about the other day. Greg sees a few guys who could help the Reds, just like the non-tendered Jonny Gomes did last year. Kelly Shoppach and Noah Lowry are a couple of guys I wouldnt mind taking a look at if they were let go by their respective teams. -
The Fay thanks those of you who read his blog for your patronage
so I'll take the opportunity to reciprocate and thank John for all of his hard work this year. This was the first season for the Reposter and without looking it up I'm pretty sure I linked to the Fay more than any other blog. The Reposter would be a ridiculous enterprise without him. Thanks John! He also says the biggest topics of the offseason will be the search for a new pitching coach, the search for George Grande's replacement on the tv (I'm crossing my fingers for Jim Kelch), and the decisions to be made on arb-eligible players like Jonny Gomes and Laynce Nix. Fay again says the budget may not stretch enough to fit Gomes and he could be non-tendered. -
The Fay is not permitted to disclose his votes, but he all but says he voted Albert Pujols as your NL MVP (he'd be crazy not to, right?)
But he also says Joey Votto has a good shot at earning one of his own one of these days. Votto was 3rd in the league in OPS with a .981 mark, behind only Pujols and Prince Fielder. His 4.6 WAR is nothing to sneeze at, but it puts him well behind guys like Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, and Ryan Zimmerman. But of course, Votto did miss a month. In Batting Runs, he ranks 7th. He is something special. -
Doug continues his State of the Farm series
by looking at 3rd base. Todd Frazier heads the list, despite playing only 4 games at the hot corner all season. Doug says the Reds already know he can play 3B, so they are trying him at other positions on the diamond to see if he can handle it. He split the season between LF and 2B and hit no matter which glove he wore. He also profiles El Nino Destructor Juan Francisco and Neftali Soto, who also made the pre-season Red Reporter top prospects list. In Centerfield, it's Yorman Rodriguez and In the corner outfield, Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco split the bill. -
Dave Cameron at FanGraphs ran the numbers to see how well WAR correlates with actual wins and losses
and it turns out that it does a pretty darn good job. Good enough for me to keep it as my standard go-to stat. I think the most exciting thing is that WAR is still evolving, as it does not yet include such nebulous things as base running and catcher defense. So we arent all the way there, but I think we're on the right track.
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I think the Reds should hire Dock Ellis to be the pitching coach.
I mean if he could throw a no hitter so fucked up on acid he couldn’t feel the ball, he has to know what he is doing. I think that kinda balls to the walls attitude will help this young staff.
Dock: Hey Aaron what is going on today?
Harang: Well Dock I’m not feeling the greatest, my allergies are bothering me.
Dock: Well Arron I threw a no hitter fucked up on acid, allergies are no goddamn excuse.
_________________________
Dock: Hey Bronson what is happening?
Arroyo: I don’t know Dock, my head hurts so fucking much, I guess I spent too much time with the ladies on the Nasty Hook last night.
Dock: Well I threw a no hitter so fucked up I couldn’t even feel my fingers, hangovers are problems for 12 year old sissy boys, are you a 12 year old sissy boy?
I think that kinda attitude is what this staff needs.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 8, 2009 11:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ummmm
I don’t think it’s gonna happen.
Definitely a good argument.
by Slyde on Oct 8, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
now you ruined my day.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 8, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bullshit
Bailey: Man, i can’t control my breaking stuff and my pinky hurts today
Dock: Fuck you Bailey, I’m dead and I could still out pitch you
Bailey: What the heck…?
Dock: That’s right mother fucker, I pitched outof my ass when I was so wasted by the Dts I didn’t know where the catcher was, and I still ruled,,,so why don’t you think I can’t whup your pansy ass just cause I’m dead…
Dick Pole “Dock Ellis dead? Damn..that fellow is a hell of a p[itcher, no wonder the Pirates struggled so much this year”.
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Oct 8, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Dick Pole's persona
is my favorite persona in Madville’s scenarios.
People always asking, 'Uncle Jemima, why you sell booze?' I say 'sell whatchu know' and I knows about booze.
by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Oct 8, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if you like mads writing vote in the pole before it closes tonight.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 8, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think someone should make a movie about that game...
i’ve heard legends that dock thought the ball was talking to him at certain points of the game telling him what to throw. i’d want the ball to have the voice of either gilbert gottfried or dave chappelle.
by GrooveLeg on Oct 8, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
would it be lke the Trainspotting version
Field of Dreams?
by Red_Poodle on Oct 8, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If only we still had Todd Coffey on the team
He could come sprinting out of the bullpen while “Lust For Life” played.
by Brendanukkah on Oct 8, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would like to file a formal protest about the poll
because I agree with both statements.
Injuries literally did cripple the team (nice pun, Scrabbles), but they weren’t that good to begin with and wouldn’t have made the playoffs anyways.
Regarding Gomes, I can’t even bear to think about the possibility that Gomes is non-tendered and Taveras is on the team making $4 million next season. Someone could write a book about how decisions like that contract are what don’t hurt the Yankees but kill small market teams.
I'mma let you finish, but....
by nycredsfan on Oct 8, 2009 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think what he's trying to say in the poll
With the first answer is that they missed the playoffs (and a winning record) because of the injuries, and if they would have been healthy, they’d at least have been a contender.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Oct 8, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
poll is a little silly
plenty of +500 teams that didnt make playoffs. I don’t see how you can argue that the Reds don’t go over 500 without the injuries, since they were a handful of games below.
by cokane on Oct 8, 2009 12:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i dont think the Reds are claiming the injuries kept them from being a .500 team (though it's quite possibly true)
the sentiment im getting from the Reds is that the injuries kept them from making the playoffs. i dont think anyone, regardless of what the FO says, thinks a .500 record is a “Goal”. nobody plays for .500. every team out there wants to go to the playoffs. when they say otherwise it’s just politicking.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 8, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well ...................
Willy T and EE getting injured might have saved the season from becoming a complete fiasco; the first because it was the only way to make Dusty stop playing the asshole and we eventually got a good look at what Stubbs can do. The second because otherwise he might have put up tolerable enough numbers to dissuade Walt from dumping him for Rolen.
by no1marauder on Oct 8, 2009 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah thank good we lost Stewart to avoid this season becoming a fiasco.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 8, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So What
I’m quite glad that the season didn’t turn out to be a fiasco and that the team showed some spark down the stretch. If we had bumbled in playing Pirate type ball, next season would look hopeless. As it is, we have some talented young players, a few rising stars and some good veterans with a record of recent success to build on. That’s worth a AA pitcher who might never make a difference in the majors to me.
by no1marauder on Oct 8, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
your eeg results are in...
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 8, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Narron'd
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Oct 8, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
old-school'd
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Oct 9, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what, you can't refute his argument?
this is lame.
Definitely a good argument.
by Slyde on Oct 8, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
as lame as “pole.”
Keep your shit off my whimsy.
by PeteyHendrix on Oct 9, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dick's pole?
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 9, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who cares if next season looks hopeless or not
The wins they got at the end of this season don’t count for next year, the only effect they might have is to give some hope to fans in the offseason. That has no effect on how they will perform next year.
And the sentiment that every prospect traded “might never make a difference” always bothered me. Votto/Cueto/Bruce/Bailey were all in that “might never make a difference” category at one time. Stewart could amount to nothing and I would still not like the trade, because he had established himself as the Reds best pitching prospect because of his high upside, not to mention him making it to AAA in his first full season (by the way, he’s a AAA pitcher, not AA). You don’t trade that kind of upside, especially for a starter, that would be like trading Cueto.
I was mostly unsure why the Reds, already out of contention, were so determined to aquire him at the trading deadline, when they probably could have waited until this offseason and gotten a more reasonable deal. Probably a desperate attempt by Bob to get a .500 season. Then they gave us that garbage about “replacing” that pitching talent with Leake, which is dumb because you want to stockpile that kind of talent, not have to replace it. I don’t hate the move as much as some, but I sure as hell don’t like it.
by sharks on Oct 8, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who cares ............
If next season looks hopeless??? I’d said the players care. I’d say the fans care. Hopefully, management should care. The 27-13 run at the end of this year might have been largely produced against the Pirates and teams playing out the string, but giving our young players a taste of major league success and ending the season on a big up note rather than blundering in at 95-100 losses has got to be a boost to their confidence.
Rolen is a big improvement in the lineup NOW and next year over EE. He’s a run producer (24 RBIs in 40 games with the Reds in 2009), an on base guy and a big defensive upgrade. And it’s an intangible which is hard to measure, but he adds a veteran presence to a young team. Put simply, his presence on the team makes it more likely we’ll contend next year.
Zach Stewart is a good prospect beyond question. But you can’t keep holding on to all your prospects if you ever expect to improve your major league team. The Reds need to show some improvement at the big level in the near future; 9 years of losing is enough. Rolen is ready to help the team in 2010; Stewart was not. Plus it’s not like we are devoid of pitching prospects in the system. The trade was a good one and sent a message to the players and fans that we’re going to try to win in 2010. Good for Walt.
by no1marauder on Oct 8, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess my point is
that winning now is really a fairly small victory compared to the big picture. I don’t want this team to just win a little at the end of a lost season to make me feel better, I want this team to be a good team throughout the season, every season. Winning a little now is certainly not worth spending all your prospects.
As for next year, yes, Rolen does improve the team. Let’s just hope that his age or injury history don’t catch up with him, which for what he’s costing the team next year I felt was pretty risky. I like him on the team, dont get me wrong, but giving up good pitching prospects for someone who might only help the team for one or two years is kind of counter intuitive.
I’m also not that happy with how people reference the Reds record since Rolen came over as proof that he’s some sort of magical force that got us winning (I’m not saying you’re one of them). People just ignore the contributions from Stubbs, Janish, Votto hitting better, Bruce coming back, Bailey and Arroyo pitching well, etc. had on the team. The talent overall improved, and Rolen contributed to that, but lets not discount what the rest of the team was doing.
It seems that the majority of Reds fans are just tired of losing, and so if the Reds were to compete one year and finish with a winning record they would all be happy, even if doing that meant they would just go back to losing every year again. I say screw competing for one year and falling off at the end, I want to compete every year and eventually build up to a championship caliber team, and trading away all your future players sure as shit isn’t going to guarantee that.
And, uhh…..this was interesting:
you can’t keep holding on to all your prospects if you ever expect to improve your major league team
since I’m pretty sure holding on to Votto or Cueto has kinda helped the team. I’m not against trading prospects, but why not wait until we’re adding pieces to a team in order to make a run in the playoffs, not at a winning record.
by sharks on Oct 8, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and i'll add
“it’s not like we are devoid of pitching prospects in the system” is an absolutely ridiculous statement. precisely the opposite is true. Mike Leake is the best pitching prospect we have. outside of him, only Travis Wood and maybe Brad Boxberger have any value as prospects. the pitching depth in our system was very shallow before we dealt Roenicke and Stewart, and now it is embarrassingly so.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 9, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was Thinking
of all the pitchers who have come up from AAA this year like Maloney, Fisher, Ramirez + Wood. Maybe “prospects” isn’t quite the word for these guys (except Wood) but we have a group of pitchers who spent most of this year in the minors who seem to be major league ready. Maybe we could trade Harang for some “prospects” of the type you are thinking of (promising arms but a few years away from the bigs at least).
by no1marauder on Oct 9, 2009 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or instead of trading Harang
why dont we trade Rolen for a pair of pitching prospects?
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 9, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Word "All" .....
was in that sentence for a reason. Given the weakness of the NL Central, if you achieve a winning season you’re almost in contention already. A few breaks here and there and you can win the division. I think the Reds still need a few more pieces (a good hitting SS who could bat #2 effectively and a veteran catcher with pop who could back up Hanigan or take over if Ryan stumbles again, etc.), but I think they are close to contender status. I never gave Rolen all the credit and agree that a lot of players came on at the end of the year. But Scott is a big improvement over EE.
by no1marauder on Oct 9, 2009 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Childish Sarcasm
is big on this site, I know. But in all seriousness, Rolen is a big upgrade at 3B while Harang has been a huge disappointment the last two years and I don’t think it would be that hard to replace his “production” of 2008-09. Dealing him would open up sufficient salary to make some moves in the FA market.
by no1marauder on Oct 9, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
in all seriousness
yes, Rolen has been a big upgrade at 3B. there is no denying that. but trades should not be judged based on whether or not they upgrade a position. they should be judged based on how they affect the team and the organization as a whole. is the team in a better position now or on the future to make a championship run? i would say no.
getting Rolen is a short-term move. he is only signed through next season and he is in the twilight of his career. he is the kind of player that good teams pick up when they need one more piece to get them over the top. so unless the addition of Rolen set the Reds up to make a playoff run (much like Matt Holliday did for the Cards), the trade was ill-conceived.
in the Reds’ case, they were more than just Scott Rolen away from making the playoffs. the addition of Rolen makes them a few wins better, but unless those are the 89th or 90th win, it really doesnt matter. the difference between a 59-win team like the Nationals and a 78-win team like the Reds isnt much: they both missed the playoffs all the same. so unless Rolen is that last guy to get you into the playoffs, he’s ostensibly worthless.
on top of this, the Reds poorly managed the trade negotiations. the Blue Jays were looking to dump payroll because their playoff run fizzled out, so they had great incentive to move Rolen. also, Rolen asked the Jays to be traded somewhere closer to home, so they had extra pressure to make a move. given these two facts, the Jays were in a very weak position to get good value in the deal.
in spite of this, they came away with two of the Reds best (and only) pitching prospects. Stewart was and still is a highly-touted prospect and Roenicke has closer potential. on top of these guys, EdE was a proven major-league bat with a fair contract. value-wise, the Jays actually came out ahead in the deal, and remember they were dealing from a weak position.
so not only did the addition of Rolen not help the team get to the playoffs now, it actually hurt their chances of doing so in the next few years. yes, Rolen made the team a few wins better this year, but those wins are meaningless unless they get you to the playoffs. and he likely wont be around or productive in the coming years when the team might actually have a chance at contending, when guys like Roenicke and Stewart could have been centerpieces of the team, or traded for that guy who could push them over the top. it was a bad move.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 9, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harang was trending upwards when he went down for the season with an apendectomy.
His ERA reached a season high of 4.52 on August 3, and dropped down to 4.21 after his last start on August, 21. In each of his last 5 starts he threw at least 7 innings. Harang started out the season strong and hit a bump after the rain delay game, but he seems to have gotten himself back on track, i am predicting 220 innings with and ERA around 3.80 and 180 Ks in 2010.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 9, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harang
Fell apart in July when we needed a #1 starter to stop the bleeding and keep us somewhere near .500. He made 5 starts from July 12th to August 3rd and lost all five with a 6.82 ERA. Arroyo threw two shutouts in the same period. Quite frankly, what we got from Harang in 2009 (all of 6 wins), we could have got from Kip Wells. I say ditch him and free some money to address our offensive needs.
by no1marauder on Oct 9, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I will bet $50 that unless Harang misses time for something unpredictable like a tonsillectomy
he will throw over 200 innings and keep his ERA under 4.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 9, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Faith
is a wonderful thing. I’d prefer to get some offensive help rather than pray that a guy who has had two sub-par years makes a sudden turnaround.
by no1marauder on Oct 9, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he had an ERA+ of 105 so he had a slight above par season
and his perhipals aren’t that different than they were in in 2005-2007. So he had some bad luck too.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 9, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
plus who fills the pitching needs if Harang goes
they have 5 guys for the 5 man rotation; Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Maloney, they have spot starters in Owings and Wood, the Reds don’t have the pitching depth to maintain a quality level of starting pitching throughout the 2010 season right now, Harang will leave a big gaping whole in that rotation.
Wins are a worthless stat. And do not reply with “wins and loses are the name of the game” or some worthless shit like that, because you know a pitcher can go out there and throw 9 innings of 1 run ball and lose, or he can go out there and throw 5 innings of 8 run ball and win.
If the Reds still had Stewart I’d be more comfortable with them moving Harang, but as of now, they have nobody to fill that hole. Even if EV is at full strength in 2011, I would like Cincinnati to pick up both Harang and Arroyo’s option because they could move one of the 6 (Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Maloney) to the bullpen as added pitching depth for 2011.
So just tell me how do you replace Harang’s production? Keep in mind that even last year Harang was a 2.5 WAR pitcher, while missing the final 6 weeks of the season. At his best in 2002 Wells was a 2.5 WAR pitcher.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 9, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What Production?
The guy can’t win and pitches like shit when it matters. He didn’t pitch an inning over the last 6 weeks and we got along just fine. If Wood is ready, bring him up. If not, use Lehr or Owings. Or pick up a back of the rotation FA. Harang is simply not worth anything near $12 million and that kind of money could go a long way to filling some of the offensive holes this team has. Stick your WAR where the sun don’t shine; if it says Adam Harang was a good pitcher in 2009 it’s about as reliable as phrenology.
by no1marauder on Oct 9, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
according to fangraphs Harang was worth $11M in 2009
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 9, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fangraphs
can pay him then. I’d prefer to see the Reds use their money to improve the team rather than keep paying someone who can’t win.
by no1marauder on Oct 9, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just explain why he can't win?
he has been unlucky? DO you actually think pitchers win-loss record means anything?
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 9, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So to recap:
WAR is only worthy of anal penetration as a stat
Fangraphs’ opinion of Harang is about 50% off or more
Harang’s above-average production could easily be replaced with a player costing less than $11M
Harang should be judged by a 5-start sample, as should Arroyo.
Kip Wells is capable of 6 wins for this team
Only 3 of our 50+ pitching prospects have any value at all.
I disagree on all these points, leaving me to find your evaluations to be lacking, since they are not backed up by numbers nor consensus.
Keep your shit off my whimsy.
by PeteyHendrix on Oct 9, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How's these numbers
12-32 with a 4.50 ERA over two years while making $24 million. That’s “above average production” to you stat geeks, but it looks like crap to me. At least we won 5 of Wells’ 7 starts (not that I’m advocating keeping Wells). Even if the starter replacing Harang was marginally worse in those 20% of games, the players we could add with the extra $12 million would make us stronger in 100% of our games. Run that through your abacus and tell me how it works out, Einstein.
by no1marauder on Oct 9, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it works out to equal that you are less than completely informed,
And that you enjoy insulting people when they don’t agree with you.
Thanks for keeping an open mind and having a rational discussion…er…well, maybe next time.
Keep your shit off my whimsy.
by PeteyHendrix on Oct 9, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 9, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you see slyde i was only saving time
because i knew how it was going to go…
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 9, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No need to stoop, justin.
Rational thought mixed with informed analysis is on your side.
Keep your shit off my whimsy.
by PeteyHendrix on Oct 9, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
his bad starts in 2008 came after Dusty misused him
you need to through that season out the window. This year was a bounce back, and who knows what he would have done if he wasn’t allowed to return after a 2 hour rain delay, and if he had a full season to pitch.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 9, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Utter Crap
Harang is making his money now for his seasons (2005-2007) when he was making jack and shit. He is still just as effective as he was, he was just overused and if you have watched him pitch, he is stellar and lights out through 5-6 innings and is always pulled two batters too late. Or, as in this season, the Reds score 1 run for him. If it wasn’t for the crappy bullpen in ’06, he probably would have won a Cy Young Award. You have to give him some respect for the blood he shed when he was barely making anything.
by Jack Armstrong started an All Star Game on Oct 9, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He can make his money
on another team. The Reds can try to improve without a bottom of the rotation starter getting paid $12 million. Everybody wins.
by no1marauder on Oct 9, 2009 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still Just as Effective?
Can you read a stat line? Compared to 2006-07, his WHIP over the last two years is worse, his hits per 9 is worse, his HRs per 9 is worse, his BB per 9 is worse, his K’s per 9 is worse and his ERA is worse. Can you stat geeks discern a trend here? “It’s all Dusty’s fault” is a bit lame under the circumstances.
by no1marauder on Oct 9, 2009 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
calm down with the "stat geek" stuff
I find that a bit lame, especially under the circumstances that you’re also using stats
by sharks on Oct 9, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
his k/9 and bb/9 is still within a standard deviation of where it was. His h/9 and hr/9 are both up, but the h/9 can be a product of luck.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2009 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Luck
How many mirrors did he break? How many black cats walked in front of him? His stats are worse in every category from 2005-07. At present, he’s a back of the rotation starter getting paid like and treated like an ace. For $12 million we could address a lot of the areas we need improvement and all that we would lose is the “unluckiest” man on the face of the Earth.
by no1marauder on Oct 10, 2009 5:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
okay do a side by side comparision
I combined Harangs 2006 and 2007 stats with a nifty feature at baseballreference.
In 2006 and 2007 Harang was 32-17, he threw 466 innings over 70 games (69) starts. His ERA was 3.75, ERA+ was 125, his K/9: 8.4, BB/9: 2.1 K/BB: 4.02, HR/9: 1.1, H/9: 8.8, and WHIP 1.208
In 2008 and 2009
Harang went 12-31over the course of 346.6 innings in 56 games (55 starts). His ERA was 4.52, ERA+ 99, K/9: 7.7 (down .7 from the previous period and his 2009 K/9 was 7.9 which is .5 from his K/9 of 2006-2007), BB/9: 2.4 (down .3), K/BB: 3.17 (down .85), HR/9: 1.5 (up .4), H/9: 10.2 (up 1.4).
Harang’s BB/9 and K/9 are aren’t too far from where they were too years ago. The biggest difference is his H/9. So I am predicting that Harang’s h/9 will be different in 2010. Honestly the water-cooler game was a microcosm of 2009. Remember that game? Harang gave up 4 hits in the first inning, I don’t believe any of them were hit with authority.
The reason trading Harang is bad is his value is rather low at the minute. A smart team will see that Harang’s stats should realign and he can probably keep an ERA around 3.9, but will know that the Reds (and other potential trade rivals) are presently undervaluing him. If you trade Harang for a bucket of balls you will regret it it when he throws 220 innings, and keeps and ERA of 3.9 next year in Yankee pin stripes (or whatever team he goes to).
If you are going to trade anyone, trade Arroyo, his value has to be up, and he was good and lucky in the second half.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Don't Care
If we are “undervaluing” Harang based on your faith-based approach to what we can expect from him in 2010. I don’t expect to get anything but prospects for him anyway. It’s a salary dump to free up $12 million to address our pressing offensive deficiencies. Arroyo keeps winning a bunch of games every year; I know you think that’s just luck but I respectfully disagree. We need one veteran performer in the rotation and Arroyo is superior to Harang.
by no1marauder on Oct 10, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
despite the fact that Harang has superior peripherals?
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harang
In 2009, had more k’s and less BBs per 9 innings than Bronson. It looks to me that Arroyo was superior in every other statistical category. Notably, Harang was barely above the league average in Quality Starts Pct. (54% v. 50%) while Arroyo threw a quality start in 70% of his starts.
by no1marauder on Oct 10, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so Arroyo was luckier than Harang
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
He was “luckier” to be a better pitcher than Harang. Just like Greinke was “luckier” to be a better pitcher than Harang. And Wainwright was “luckier” to be better than Harang. And on and on and on.
by no1marauder on Oct 10, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i give up
you can’t see any reason. But i’ll take a guy with a 7.9 K/9 over a guy with a 5.2 k/9…
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For my new non-sabremetric pal: no1maskerauder
Jean Cocteau: We must believe in luck. For how else can we explain the success of those we don’t like
Madville: Fortune falls good and ill on those who work the hardest. It is the way of fortune, the way of Mads is: work hard, be prepared and seize the good luck, Bad Luck ? Shake it off unless there is bone protruding.
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Oct 10, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
I quite like sabermetrics. You know perfectly well that a lot of sabermetricians aren’t thrilled with WAR; a measure that claims that a starter with a 6-14 W-L and a 4.24 ERA contributed more wins to a team than a closer who had 39 saves in 43 opportunities is badly flawed IMO.
by no1marauder on Oct 10, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or maybe, just maybe
your opinion is badly flawed. unless you are willing to consider that possibility then this conversation is pointless.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 10, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So far
The conversation from the other side seems to be a bunch of assertions without any evidence to back them up.
by no1marauder on Oct 10, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
you know i'm rec'ing that it is really funny
i am the one using numbers, you just keep throwing wins and loses out there. Harang had better peripherals than Arroyo last season. Odds that if you just simulate those peripherals (k/9, bb/9, k/bb, and hr/9) 100 times, Harang would have the better season the vast majority of the time. Arroyo had an incredibly second half, but he was also lukcy. It seemed that the balls hit against Harang seemed to have found more green than the balls hit in play by Arroyo.
Perhaps that also could be because the Reds defense was better of the last 2 months, with Stubbs and Janish out there.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hits Per 9 Inn
Arroyo 8.7; Harang 10.3. WHIP: Arroyo 1.266; Harang 1.411. What stat sheet are you looking at? Give up more than a hit and a half more per 9 and you’re probably going to have a worse year. As mentioned, Harang fell apart and Arroyo started pitching well in July before Stubbs and Janish became starters. And if you look at his splits, Arroyo throughout his career is a better pitcher in the 2nd half. “Luck” didn’t have much to do with it.
by no1marauder on Oct 10, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
bullshit
Hits can be a function of luck, for whatever reasons when Harang pitches more balls find holes. WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH THIS IF I WEREN’T SUPPOSED TO BE WRITING A TERM PAPER I WOULD BE DOING BETTER THINGS LIKE NO THAN ARGUING WITH YOU.
PITCHERS HAVE NO CONTROL OF WHERE THE BALL LANDS WHEN IT IS PUT IN PLAY! WHEN ARROYO HAS BEEN PITCHING THE BALL HAS BEEN GOING TO FIELDERS AND WHEN HARANG HAS BEEN PITCHING THE BALL HAS BEEN FINDING GRASS.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2009 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You Can't Be Serious
An assertion that ANY difference in the number of hits given up by pitchers is attributable solely to “luck” is the dumbest shit I’ve ever read. Perhaps the fact that 24% of the balls hit against Harang are line drives v. only 20% of Arroyo’s has something to do with the hit difference. Perhaps the fact that a higher percentage of balls hit in the air against Arroyo don’t leave the infield (14% v. 12% of Harang’s) might have something to do with the hit difference. Have you ever actually watched a baseball game? Sure doesn’t sound like it; good pitchers are harder to make good contact against. That’s been true in baseball since the beginning.
by no1marauder on Oct 10, 2009 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldnt say "solely"
but you can’t deny the fact that once the ball is off the bat, the result is mostly out of the pitchers hands. A bloop hit or a poorly played ball by an infielder is not the pitchers fault, and should be seen as bad luck.
This isn’t the first time I’ve seen the “good pitchers make it harder to make good contact” argument, and sure that sounds logical, but when using stats like ERA and Wins or hits allowed you have to take into account the fact that bad luck factors into those outcomes (not to mention how bad wins are since it depends largely on your offense and bullpen). I’m not stat savvy, but I know that’s why sabr guys are trying to come up with better measurements of a pitchers true ability by attempting to take that into account, and some of those stats have been thrown around here.
I’m not sure what to think of Harang, but he’s not a bottom of the rotation pitcher, he got jacked on run support a lot during the middle of the year. Also, from watching him his FB has lost a little, but he did say late in the year that he worked some on his mechanics in order to stay back better. From my experiences with hitting, you have to be able to keep your weight back and explode forward all at once to get the most bat speed, so I think that applies to pitching too. I’m completely willing to give him a shot at a turn around next season, plus he’s one of the few veterans we’ve got left, and since Rolen’s veterancy is somehow important you can’t just write off Harang as one.
Also retract a bit on the shots at other people like: have you ever watched a baseball game. It’s hard for people to want to take your arguments seriously with that stuff thrown in.
by sharks on Oct 10, 2009 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
@ Sharks
according to Fangraphs Harang’s average fastball was 90.4 in 2009, the same as it was in 2006, and better than in 2007.
Slyde wrote a piece on Harang in July or August saying that his fastball is fine, but his slider has lost some bite.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2009 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
interesting
I’m surprised it wasn’t higher in 06/07, i thought he hung around 93-94 most of the time.
by sharks on Oct 10, 2009 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he was topping out at 93-94
i always felt like his fastball was anywhere between 88-92, and on good days he can get it up to 94. If his slider regains its slide, he will be all the way back, if it doesn’t, he will be a slightly above league average pitcher.
I am betting if Dusty doesn’t do anything stupid Harang will put up a very solid season in 2010.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 11, 2009 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
On any single hit ball there is the possibility of “bad luck” from the pitcher’s standpoint. However, once you get a statistically significant sample this type of random stat noise should even out. Arroyo faced over 900 batters this year and Harang over 700. It is far more likely that the differences in h/9 is based on the differences in the types of balls hit.
You’re operating at a double standard ignoring things like the EEG post while complaining about my statement – quite simply I was shocked to hear anyone pretending to be knowledgeable about baseball making the assertion that differences in hits allowed is based only on luck. That assertion is ridiculous.
by no1marauder on Oct 10, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that assertion is ridiculous
would have been just fine. just some advice is all.
by sharks on Oct 11, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Point is
At present the Reds have no payroll room to bolster our offense by FA acquisitions. I think they need to, perhaps you don’t. If you agree with me that they do need to help the offense and if you think they can do so via free agency they need to dump some salary. They have 4 guys due to get $11 million plus next year: Rolen, Cordero, Arroyo and Harang. It wouldn’t make much sense to trade Rolen a couple of months after giving up two prospects for him. Cordero has done an excellent job as a closer and there’s no sure replacement for him. Of Arroyo and Harang, Arroyo is the better pitcher by the stats. That’s my reasoning; feel free to attack it at whatever point you feel it is weak.
by no1marauder on Oct 11, 2009 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
unlikely they trade Harang
because of some things written into his contract if he gets traded (his option becomes mutual and I think next yrs salary increases slightly, I’m too lazy to look it up). Also, we’re not going to get anything for him because his value is down, this also means that no one will take on all his salary. If the Reds want to give him a chance to get better then trade him, I’d would support that. But currently he will bring back next to nothing AND we’d have to pay a good size of his salary, possibly even part of his option year depending on how the mutual option works.
Plus, I am not thrilled with what we’d replace him with. Lehr? uhh…no. Owings? no, not a guarantee he pitches better than harang or even the same. Woods? I’m not sold. Wells? it hurt my soul to even mention him. Maloney will probably already be in the rotation.
Is Downgrading the pitching worth spending money on some vet, or god forbid, another Taveras? and you can only assume they would free up 6-8 mil. Is Gomes or Ramon better than a less than stellar rotation? Them on the team certainly didn’t push us over the edge this year. Hopefully they can find a way to resign one of them.
its so easy to say trade him, but you can’t convince anyone that it definitely improves the team. Is he worth 12 mil, no probably not, but I don’t think going nuts to unload him to sign some unexciting options on offense really improves the team that much. If you find the right deal (say him for Hardy or something) then sure jump on it, but I doubt it, and I’d rather keep him than settle for a crappy deal.
If I trade someone, I’d trade Cordero, his value is high enough that we would get something in return, the other team would pay a decent amount of his salary, and finding a fill-in closer is a lot easier than finding a fill-in rotation option.
by sharks on Oct 11, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok I'm not too lazy
Harangs salary stays the same, but his option increases to 14 mil and becomes mutual, and his buyout increases from 2 mil to 2.5 mil.
by sharks on Oct 11, 2009 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IF the "AND" is True
I wouldn’t support trading him. However, I don’t think a team like the Yankees or Red Sox are going to insist the Reds eat part of Harang’s salary given their need for a starter. Given Harang’s performance the last two years, it’s at least possible one of the candidates mentioned could equal his performance. And even if we suffered a marginal decrease in that rotation spot, $12 million could seriously increase the offense if spent correctly. I’m thinking an Orlando Cabrera or Mark Scutaro to play SS, a Rod Barajas or Miquel Olivo to split time at catcher and enough money being left over to give Gomes a decent raise. Surely that kind of an upgrade offensively is worth Harang’s spot being filled by one of the people mentioned. I vehemently disagree with the notion that you can more easily replace a top closer than a mid-level (at best) starting pitcher – I think we have plausible replacements for Harang already available.
by no1marauder on Oct 11, 2009 3:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is exactly my point
orlando cabrera/marco scutaro are not much of an upgrade, plus both would cost way more than they’re worth because they will be overvalued in a weak SS market this winter. Cabrera scares me almost as much as willy taveras did. -14.5 UZR? ugly, not worth his average offensive numbers (.700 OPS) and especially not worth the money/years he’ll get. Scutaro I could maybe live with, but his offense is nothing to be proud of (.721 OPS career). Both could easily be outplayed by Janish next year when you take defense into account.
The catchers you mentioned I’d be fine with for the right amount of money, but neither upgrades the offense much.
And lastly, no, the yankees or sawx would not pick up all his salary. You’re dreaming if you think someone will take on his contract. This is way more “faith based” than thinking Harang will bounce back next year. so again, I disagree that we’d be upgrading the team by flipping harang for those small offensive upgrades. I don’t see any plausible replacements, feel free to name some, about the only one I’d even consider would be owings, sort of, and the rest are waaaaay too risky if this team wants to make good on it’s promise to compete.
And I said fill-in, not replace. the amount we’re paying for a closer is insane considering we’re not competing for anything.
by sharks on Oct 11, 2009 4:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You Don't Seem
to be able to read a stat line either. Janish was by far the worst hitting SS in the NL; last in the league among starting SS in BA, SLG and 15th in OBP. Cabrera hit .284, slugged .389, had 9 HRs, 77 RBIs even stole 13 bases. Janish isn’t getting anywhere near ANY of those numbers. Plus Orlando is a classic #2 hitter. Cabrera came in late last season and was a bit out of shape, but he won a GG as recently as 2007. Janish’s fielding numbers in 2009 are a mirage; he fielded in the low .970s in 2008 and in the minors. He’s an automatic out that a team that finished 15th in BA can’t afford as anything but a utility player.
Barajas or Olivo can’t hit significantly better than Corky Miller? Please. Getting one of them and re-signing Gomes probably adds 20-25 HRs over a what Miller/Tatum and whoever else might play LF.
You vastly overrate Harang and vastly underrate the potential of the players mentioned. We’ve went 23-32 in Harang’s starts the last two years – a .418 Win Pct. How likely is it that anybody who replaces he would do worse esp. with an improved hitting team? Not very.
This “we’re paying too much for a closer since we’re not competing” argument is ridiculous. Followed to its logical extreme it suggests we might as well pull a Pirates and get rid of all of our players making above minimum. A strong closer is a critical piece of the puzzle if you’re going to contend and we already have one of the best in the business. We’re competing for the playoffs and division title next year if we get a bit more offense, so Cordero is needed. If we fall out of contention, we could deal him then and have 1/2 a year to audition someone else. That makes more sense then waving a white flag 5 months before spring training.
by no1marauder on Oct 11, 2009 6:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is becoming quickly pointless
you’re really not reading my posts very well.
I said I would be fine with the catchers, they’re just not that big a n upgrade. I also said Id be fine with scutaro, it just wouldnt be that big an upgrade.
fielding percentage? yuck. you use some of the worst stats to prove your points.
cabrera is not a classic 2 hitter, his OBP blows, its as good as janish’s was last year.
I really dont understand how downgrading the rotation and then expecting the offense to pick it up is helping. sounds like at best it would even out, plus you haven’t named a replacement for harang, probably because there isn’t one.
I dont vastly overrate harang, you vastly overrate his replacements, and his trade value.
and uh, pull the pirates, nice work putting words into my mouth, that doesnt help your argument. you’re good at the hyperbole’s I’ll give you that.
I’m not sold we’re competeing for anything next yr with some slight offensive upgrades, especially when your grand solution to replace harang is probably lehr. fail.
by sharks on Oct 12, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.296 to .318 OBP
as good as was a bad way to put it, but they both suck. but apparently you aren’t paying attention to what killed our offense this yr.
by sharks on Oct 12, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Apparently
You didn’t pay attention to how Cabrera played down the stretch. What killed our offense was the league’s 2nd lowest BA and too many dead spots in the lineup. I can’t even be bothered to respond to your repeated rubbish that I haven’t named Harang’s replacement: I’ve named several possible ones all of whom are unlikely to do worse than the Reds only winning .418 of their starts. And it’s just ridiculous to keep saying that an addition of Cabrera/Scutaro, Barajas/Olivo and the retention of Gomes “wouldn’t be that much of an upgrade” over Janish, Corky Miller and who ever we stick in left; that’s the worst hitting starting SS in baseball, the worst hitting backup catcher and God knows what we’ll get in the OF. You saying something over and over and over again doesn’t make it so.
by no1marauder on Oct 13, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More Cabrera Stats
.381 BA with a Man on 1st; .404 when he hits the ball to the right side. That sounds like a classic #2 hitter to me. I also thought a problem with our offense was we didn’t knock in enough runs; batting #2 Cabrera drove in 23 runs in the last 31 games. If you want to keep calling him a “slight offensive upgrade” over Janish, go ahead; but it’s just plain silly. BTW, I discussed UZR/150 numbers in the post below.
by no1marauder on Oct 13, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
last post
i agree we didnt knock in enough runs, but that was because we didn’t have enough runners on base not because we didn’t have guys to do it. This was mostly because our top two spots ranked last or close to it in OBP. Why dusty insisted on batting Janish there was beyond me, so I think blaming janish for how bad our 2 spot was is unfair and foolish. signing some old guy with an already poor OBP/OPS to bat there is not much of a solution. My solution to the 2 hole: Rolen. good OBP, smart baserunner, good situation hitter, and since you think RBIs from that spot are important, he gives you that too.
When I say not a big upgrade, I never said it wasnt an upgrade, people continue to insinuate that we didnt have RBI guys or whatever junk people come up with, and none of the bats you mention are that and its not unreasonable to feel that they might see a fall off in their production from last yr. too risky.
Cabrera is old, and will probably want a multi-yr deal. forget that noise, especially with such a low OPS. was he the perfect #2 hitter during his career? sure, but 1 month of good production from a soon to be 35 yr old doesn’t mean shit IMO. you’re cherry picking stats, and you’re doing that with the UZR ratings too, though I’ll admit I kind of did that myself.
and one last time: a pitchers winning percentage is garbage because it depends largely on your offense/defense/and bullpen. Every pitcher mentioned had worse stats than Harang did this year. Repeat: Every pitcher mentioned had worse stats than Harang did this yr. Why, on gods green earth, do you think they would outperform him or even equal his production?
we need another SS and another C, ok, i agree with that, hopefully we can find them somehow, because I’m not overly thrilled with our backup/starting C or with our backup/starting SS. how we’ll find them, I dont know but we’re going to need to, and hurting another part of the team to do so is not a very productive way to do it. I also said that collectively they are slight offensive upgrades. if dusty would have batted our SS(s) at the bottom of the order like he was supposed to it wouldn’t have hurt the offense as much as it did. and I want Gomes back, or did you not get that….
You saying something over and over and over again doesn’t make it so.
I could easily turn this around on you if i wanted.
point of the story is, we’re arguing over some pretty trivial stuff. Harang is going nowhere because of his contract, and we wouldnt free up enough to sign all the guys you mentioned anyway. Some sort of creative trade is more likely to shore up those holes, with a better percentage of success. Im crossing my fingers that cozart can be ready next year, which would give us a useable platoon at SS.
overall interesting debate, you do bring up decent enough arguments. respond if you like, but I wont.
by sharks on Oct 13, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rolen
batted .264 with a man on 1st, .231 when he hit the other way and is a lot slower than Cabrera. There’s simply no comparison. True, Orlando’s OBP isn’t ideal but you can’t have everything. If a better #2 hitter can be found with the players we have now, Cabrera would certainly be a much greater threat batting 7th or 8th than Janish is. Cabrera is, of course, the same age as Rolen and an article at MLBTradeRumors suggests that him and his agent are concerned about the market this off-season. Probably a 2 year deal around $9 million is possible. Overall, I’m think $4 million for a SS, $3 million for a C and say $2 million for Gomes; that’s $9 million for next year, considerably less than Harang’s salary.
I’ve already stated something that hasn’t been responded to but I’ll repeat it: Even if the starter replacing Harang was marginally worse in those 20% of games, the players we could add with the extra $12 million would make us stronger in 100% of our games. Personally, I think Wood or Klinker might be ready now and could very well outproduce Harang’s numbers. Of course it’s a risk, but you’ve given no indication on how you think they can plug the holes we both agree the team has without giving up some high paid value.
Right now Harang is a fairly valuable commodity given that a few big market team have holes in their rotation. Since the team that gets him is only on the hook for 1 year at $12 million, I certainly don’t understand your assertion that his contract makes him unmovable. A FA like Lackey is going to be looking for Burnett numbers i.e. 5yrs, $80 mil. Harang looks like a bargain compared to that assuming the team that gets him has as high of an opinion of him as FanGraphs.
Cozart’s hitting numbers at AAA aren’t much better than Janish’s. Valaika seems a better option if we have to stay in-house.
by no1marauder on Oct 13, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scutaro
would also be a big offensive upgrade though his numbers in 2009 were a bit higher than normal. Still he’s almost certainly good for a BA in the high .260’s at least, has a little pop 5-10 HRs, 60 RBIs and is a bit better getting on base than Cabrera (figure .340 v. .325). Janish is lucky to hit above .200 (he hit .245 in AA, so it’s not a fluke).
Defensively using UZR/150 you have to wonder whether Janish will really wind up fielding better this year than either. In 2008, Janish had a -12.0 while Cabrera was 13.1 and Scutaro 20.3. This year it flips around with Janish posting a 16.9, Scutaro 0.1 and Cabrera a -9.9. How likely is it that Janish will keep up that level of performance and the others will continue at career lows? Not very. And even if you want to assume that Janish is plus 15-20 runs on either, their offensive production dwarfs that difference.
Reasonable analysis suggests that Cabrera could be got for something like $4 million and Scutaro for a bit less. That would be worth filling TWO offensive holes: the #2 spot in the lineup and SS.
by no1marauder on Oct 11, 2009 6:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah i'm a little short tempered on the internet these days...
looks sheepishly.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You look divine is a sheepskin tunic Justin
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Oct 11, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
let me ask you this
what kind of evidence are you looking for? what would convince you to change your mind?
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 10, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like evidence..
E.G.
We don’t need stuff shrouded in opinion and mystery.
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Oct 10, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is really tiny
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fairy Time
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Oct 10, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
?
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fairies are really Tiny
can barely see the little fuckers
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Oct 10, 2009 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
From Branch Rickey
“Luck is the residue of design.”
by no1marauder on Oct 10, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excuse me, I don't mean to just butt in...but
I am no fucking stat geek
And therefore it is incumbent upon me to say irrefutably: Dusty as a manager cost this team several wins with his ridiculous misuse of the Pitching staff. Why do you think Pole was fired? Because Dusty is incompetent. Furthermore if you expect Harang to continue at the same high level year after year then you sir don’t pay much attention to pitching trends. And I’ll end my non-sabremtric response with a Rolen comment. He was alright, a good addition, but is just as likely as Harang to have a fair amount of down time in 2010…so I guess we’d better press Bob to trade him too.
No Childish Sarcasm from old Mads, motherfuckers.
I tried to find a nice picture of Jen Harang for further proof of why it is necessary to keep Harang but this is what showed up on the goolge search:
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Oct 10, 2009 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what asshole took that picture?
I absolutely LOVE Scrabble in that pic btw.
Sig lines are for suckas.
by jch24 on Oct 10, 2009 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This reproduction of the this specific picture is dissapointingly dark and brooding
kind of like the commentary by no1marauder.
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Oct 10, 2009 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah scrabbles is dreamy
Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,
by 'tHan on Oct 10, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ahhhhhh
you guuuuuuuuyyyysss! stop it!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 10, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And if
You had watched Harang pitch, you’d see he was so “stellar and lights out” in the 1st inning that he yielded 19 runs in 26 starts.
by no1marauder on Oct 10, 2009 6:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
are first inning runs more valuable?
I guess you wouldn’t have wanted this guy either?
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you
read the post I was responding to, you’ll see I was refuting the claim that Harang’s problems were only because Dusty stays with him too long; in truth, AARON puts us in the hole on a regular basis. I can’t get your link to work, but I do know that the team who scores first wins a reasonably high percentage of games, far more than 50%.
by no1marauder on Oct 10, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my link is to Glavine's first inning stats
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many years
did he only win 6 games in?
by no1marauder on Oct 10, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how many years did he pitch for sub-.500 teams
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Five
1988-1990; 2003-04. He won 7 in 1988 and that was on a team that lost 106 games. He went 14-8 on a last place team in 1989. The three other years he averaged 10 wins.
by no1marauder on Oct 10, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
3 years ago'd
he’s our best pitcher. although brandon arroyo is a close 2nd
Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,
by 'tHan on Oct 10, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is a lot to be hopeful about.
Check out how this team is constructed:
The veterans we have are expensive:
Cordero $12,125,000
Harang $12,500,000
Arroyo $12,250,000
Rolen $11,000,000 (Toronto Paying $1,800,000, St. Louis $4,000,000)
IF the Reds start well in 2010, we can perhaps ride those guys (in concert with our young studs) to the playoffs. IF the Reds falter in the first half, ALL FOUR of these players are tradeable commodities that playoff contenders bid against each other for, and each has a young replacement ready in the wings. This would save us around $20M pro-rated in salary and garnering a boatload of prospects, some near MLB ready.
Cordero – can be replaced by Masset or Herrera for a half-season tryout.
Harang and Arroyo – we have numerous young starters who could blossom.
Rolen – Juan Franscisco and Todd Frazier are waiting in the wings.
We can also trade Arthur Rhodes mid-season, if we aren’t in contention. This would leave for 2011:
1B Votto
2B Phillips
3B Frazier
SS Janish
LF El Nino Destructor
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce
C Hanigan
SP Volquez
SP Cueto
SP Bailey
SP Maloney (or a prospect received in trade)
SP Leake (or a prospect received in trade)
CL Masset
LHP Herrera
RHP Burton
LHP Viola
RHP Fisher
Add the talent received in trade, plus ONE free agent signing with the saved $20M, and we could be there. And that’s just the contingency plan.
Keep your shit off my whimsy.
by PeteyHendrix on Oct 9, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
really disagree about harang/arroyo
no need to trade them away, and their 2011 options are good even for the Reds’ budget. Trade them away in 2011 if we can’t compete? sure. Not in 2010, plus the Reds have a much better chance to contend in 2011 imho.
by cokane on Oct 9, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What Free Agent?
When is the last time the Reds signed a SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING Free Agent? The last two big names/big contracts I can think of are Cordero and Eric Milton. No, if they cut salary, it won’t be to sign anyone. Saved so much money by freeing Dunn and Griffey’s salaries last year, and how did they use that money?
by Jack Armstrong started an All Star Game on Oct 10, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
raises that were already slated to be given
Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,
by 'tHan on Oct 10, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and 2.5 mil to T Virus
1.5 mil to Lincoln, 3.5 mil to Weathers, 2 mil to Rhodes. that’s 8.5 mil right there. that is no small amount of money.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 10, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All Small potatoes
compared to what other free agents are signed for. None of those guys were supposed to be big impact players.
by Jack Armstrong started an All Star Game on Oct 10, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no
but it’s still a waste of money. we had in-house options who could have played just as well as these guys and made the league-minimum. free agency is not the place to go to get your fill-in role players.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 10, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i didnt have a problem with weathers or rhodes
since weathers was arb eligible as a type B and I felt we needed a lefty in the pen because herrerra wasn’t on anyones radar yet. the others, obviously, were some real bad signings.
by sharks on Oct 10, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which brings me back to my point
saving $20 million or whatever is not going to have any impact on improving the team
by Jack Armstrong started an All Star Game on Oct 10, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heer Heer
Saving 1.3 M and firing Dusty however would be very beneficial but only if a young relatively unknown manager was available to fire this team up, properly utilize the pitcning staff and put together a sensible batting order and lineup.
(Of course B.Bob wouldn’t really save any money as Ditsy is under contract, it just felt like a really good segue.)
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Oct 10, 2009 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
bob fired narron in 2007 narron was under contract through 2008.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2009 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
B.Boblikes 'Big' name managers
Jerry who?
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Oct 11, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Saving $20M will likely have SOME financial impact.
But I agree that we haven’t seen a FA splash here in a while.
But we could also get back an impact player in our trades, or enough prospects to turn around and flip them for an impact player.
Keep your shit off my whimsy.
by PeteyHendrix on Oct 11, 2009 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, sure, could you blame Dunn too?
This just in if you think injuries to 3rd basemen making 4 million killed the team, wait ’til next year when the injured 3rd baseman is making 11 million and I have to grimace every time I see the name Rosales in a line-up.
Oh, and for the record, not only did the Reds give up on red Reporter favorite Zach Stewart but Rolen OPS’d .766 for the Reds and Edwin OPS’d .748 (with a groin injury). 2.5 times the salary for .025 OPS and much improved defense! Welcome to you small market Reds.
Oh, in case no one noticed, I still hate that trade.
by timb116 on Oct 8, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What if you saw Francisco instead of Rosales?
by Brendanukkah on Oct 8, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the left fielder will need to cut off a lot of base hits.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 8, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be shocled to see Edwin back and batting left-handed
by timb116 on Oct 8, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ashocled is Old English for "shocked and livid"
It feel out of use in the 1800’s thanks to the evolution of the word “amazed”.
It’s true. Ask Charlie to look it up in one of his fancy books
by timb116 on Oct 8, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
weird that you would
post about EEE’s injury but not Rolen’s.
for the year rolen ops .823
for the year EEE ops .730
Maybe Rolen hamstrings the Reds with budget, but it was definitely time to give up on Edwin
by cokane on Oct 8, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You also really can't gloss over the defensive improvement in Rolen
Rolen accumulated 3.8 WAR all told this year. I know it’s a big “if,” but if Rolen stays healthy next year, it’s not unreasonable to think he would be could be worth 3.5 WAR, which would make him worth more than what he’s being paid. It was an ill-advised trade, but he’s been worth his salt so far.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Oct 8, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and nothing is said about EE/Rolen's defense
"I have found me a home"
by obc2 on Oct 9, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
that what the ’09 Reds lacked in talent, they made up for with injuries and mismanagement.
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
by Pops Daniels on Oct 8, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This comment should be greened
Pops nails it
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Oct 8, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i revised the poll a bit
is that better?
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 8, 2009 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
For the record, I wasn't trying to be a prick
I was just pointing out that a decision was hard for me because in some ways both statements were true. I thought it was lighthearted, then cokane called your poll silly and I felt bad.
I'mma let you finish, but....
by nycredsfan on Oct 8, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no yer cool
cokane is the jackass :)
and i admit the wording wasnt as clear as it could have been. and i tried real hard to not make it really bias. like my first draft of it was “are you swallowing this bullshit the Reds are feeding us?”
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 8, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
cool thanks for the negativity
im sure that attitude will attract newcomers ;p
fwiw — simplicity is the way to go:
“Did injuries prevent the Reds from competing for a playoff spot?”
1. Yes
2. No
just some advice for the future
by cokane on Oct 8, 2009 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the injuries kept the team from .500 and not the playoffs
so i voted no
"Some times you get lucky; some times you get Willy Taveras." - Teh Fay
by joshuar9476 on Oct 8, 2009 2:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree, it was not the playoffs that kept this team from .500
Definitely a good argument.
by Slyde on Oct 8, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
me fail english? that's umpossible.
"Some times you get lucky; some times you get Willy Taveras." - Teh Fay
by joshuar9476 on Oct 8, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um...
Every team has injuries. Good teams aren’t so paper thin that a couple of injures kills them.
Plus, we have to be honest. Votto didn’t really miss that much time, Bruce and (especially) Hernandez didn’t hit that well, and Harang hasn’t pitched like a top-of-the-line starter in 2 seasons. The problem with this team was that it wasn’t that good to begin with, and some of the players (Bruce, EdE/Rolen, Hernandez, Taveras, Harang) weren’t as good as we thought they’d be. The problem was one of talent, not luck.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
by sidnancy on Oct 8, 2009 3:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Votto missed 30 games all told
That’s not a ton of time, but it is significant, especially with who we had replacing him.
Harang was one of our most valuable pitchers this season pre-injury, and injuries to EdE and others hurt because, like you said, we were so offensively thin.
But I agree, the main problem was lack of talent.
I'mma let you finish, but....
by nycredsfan on Oct 8, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You shouldn't be so quick to validate WAR based on a high correlation with wins
It turns out that Pythag and even net OBP (OBP-OBP allowed) have higher correlations.
Does that mean that WAR is worse than Pythag or OBP? Of course not, it’s simply that WAR measures something different than wins, and shouldn’t be compared to them to validate the stat.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 8, 2009 8:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
right
i like WAR because i think it does a good job at reflecting a player’s true value. the fact that it correlates with wins is just one more bullet point in it’s favor.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 8, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
You would want WAR to have a good correlation with wins, but not too much either because that would mean it really isn’t adding much to the discussion.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 8, 2009 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just wanted to say that I'm a huge Conor Jackson fan
I’d love the Reds to pick him up if they didn’t have a full outfield to begin with…so unless a there’s a couple trades. But yeah, he’d be a good pickup. Mark it.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Oct 9, 2009 8:45 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree with this, so much so that I will recommend others view it
Sig lines are for suckas.
by jch24 on Oct 10, 2009 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't
Matt Klinker another possibility for the starting rotation at some point in 2010?
by no1marauder on Oct 10, 2009 10:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
maybe late in the year
word on the street is there are a lot of guys we need to protect from the rule 5 (heisey for one) and I don’t think he’s one of them, but I’m not sure about that. So it might be tough for him to make it on the 40 man, plus I’d give him a full year in AAA before I started pushing him toward the bigs, especially since he only made it into 5 games this year.
Anyone know what he throws? he pitched pretty well this year.
by sharks on Oct 10, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
doug had a breif write up on him at redsminorleagues.com in his minor league starting pitching report.
i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah i haven't caught up with his state of the farms
but it doesn’t mention his stuff, Im mostly curious how hard he throws
by sharks on Oct 10, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Klinker's Stuff
On a post on Redlegnation 6/24/07, Matt offered his own self-assessment: My strongest asset is the command of my fastball. Although I have hit numbers in the mid-90’s, I normally sit around 90-92 mph. However, I can normally work my fastball in and out pretty effectively. I also believe, with batters using wood now, my two-seam fastball is going to be a very successful pitch riding in on right-handed hitters.
- The weakest area of my pitching is the lack of a dominant off-speed pitch. My circle-change could definitely become a great pitch, but I never relied on it in the past. I throw a loopy 12-to-6 curve with shaky command. I need to improve the speed and consistency of that pitch. I am also trying to develop a split-finger to use mainly against lefties.
That was a while ago. He’s been striking out a lot of batters in the minors, so maybe he’s refined his off-speed stuff. He did go on the disabled list late last year, but he says there’s no damage to his pitching arm or shoulder. If Harang or Arroyo get traded, that would open a spot on the 40; if he keeps blowing people away at AAA I don’t see why we wouldn’t promote him depending on how the rotation is going next year.
by no1marauder on Oct 10, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Arroyo/Harang get traded, I think that would open up a spot for one of the rule 5 eligible draftees before Klinker, or probably Frazier.
Though I suppose that would depend on the timing of the trade.
Much obliged for the reference to that post, I would think his change is probably helping him a lot by now and good to hear he can hang around 90, which is what I had guessed given his K rate.
by sharks on Oct 10, 2009 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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