Look me in the eye and tell me I'm satisfied. Are you satisfied? Reds finish season 78-84.
by Brendanukkah on Oct 4, 2009 8:25 PM EDT
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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game
Brandon Phillips. The quest for 100 RBI came up just short, but The Franchise did have two doubles, 3 RBI, and a run scored. Honorable mention for Drew Stubbs (three hits, two runs) and Homer Bailey (six shutout innings, fourth win over the Pirates).
Key Plays
- The Reds struck fast in the first inning. Drew Stubbs led off with a single, and Paul Janish sacrificed him to second. Joey Votto walked, then Brandon Phillips launched a double to score Stubbs. Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce made weak outs to end the threat.
- The Stubbs-Phillips connection paid off again in the third inning, as Stubbs and Votto singled, advanced on a wild pitch, and Phillips got his second RBI of the game with a ground out. Get 'em on, get 'em over, get 'em in.
- Homer Bailey was pretty solid all afternoon, but in the fifth inning he gave up a leadoff triple and a walk. Then he struck out the side. Bad. Ass.
- The Reds put the game to bed in their half of the fifth inning. Paul Janish walked with one out, then stole second. He went to third on Joey Votto's infield single, and came around to score on Phillips's double to the wall. Scott Rolen then slammed a triple, bringing in Votto and Phillips, before scoring himself on a single by Jay Bruce. It hasn't seemed like it most of the time this season, but we've got the makings of a pretty solid offense.
- Juan Francisco walked! ROAR. Then Stubbs and Votto singled to load the bases with Phillips up, trying hard to reach 100 RBI. Sadly, he grounded into a double play instead.
Other Notes
- The Reds finished with 78 wins, and in fourth place in the NL Central. That's an improvement of four wins and one place over last year.
- Brandon Phillips was the only member of the Opening Day lineup that didn't spend time on the disabled list... and even he had "fractures."
- Phillips wound up just short of 100 RBI, and Francisco Cordero was just short of 40 saves. Yes, they're two of the most worthless stats, but round numbers are always exciting. Incidentally, Phillips's 98 RBI were the second most by a Reds second baseman. Joe Morgan had 110 in 1976.
- Drew Stubbs had three hits and a walk today to finish the season with a .267 average and .323 OBP. Big deal. Joey Votto had three hits and a walk today to finish the season with a .322 average and .414 OBP. Big deal. Juan Francisco finished the season with a .429 average and .520 OBP. ROAR.
- Final attendance at Great American Ball Park was 1,747,919 this year, the smallest number since 1986.
- The Pirates only committed 73 errors all season, a franchise record. It led the majors, and provides a clear correlation between defense and winning.
- Of course, the Pirates were also shut out a major league-leading 17 times, which provides a clear correlation between not scoring runs and losing.
- The Reds finished the decade with one winning season.
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How about Votto?
Finishes in the top ten in MLB in BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS.
His OPS is 4th overall in the majors, behind only Pujols, Mauer, and Prince Fielder, higher than Texiera, Miguel Cabrera, and Derrek Lee.
I knew he was kick-ass, but looking at those numbers it’s evident he’s ridiculously kick-ass. Congrats to Mr. Bagodonuts on a season well done.
P.S. What do those numbers mean for his future contract negotiations? $$$$$$. We should try to extend him NOW (Braun-Hanley-Longoria style).
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Oct 4, 2009 8:39 PM EDT reply actions
it means we should definitelyt give Joey many dollars
to keep wearing a Reds uniform. Maybe Slyde or Brendanukkah could give some actual figures lol Those are impressive stats and really speaks to his focus,intensity and ability. Even with all the stuff he went through this season, including a difficult slump, he finished in the top of the class.
Votto made $437,500 this year
I don’t know as much as some do about reasonable raises, but I do know that the Reds will be on the hook for $12.5 million to Harang next year, $12 million for Cordero, $11 million for Arroyo, $11 million for Rolen, $4 million for Taveras, and $3.5 million for Dusty. Votto’s certainly earned a raise, but I think they’d like to keep his payments as low as possible, at least for next year.
There’s also the question of what to do with Yonder Alonso, who has a major league contract and will be paid $4.55 million through 2012.
SS prospect
at least I sure hope thats what we get for him.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Oct 4, 2009 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions
any deal they make
isn’t going to pay him cash up front
If he signs for, say, 6/60, he’ll still only see ~500k next year and then start taking in the money from then on out.
And if I was the Reds, I wouldn’t sign him yet. Give another year of guaranteed arbitration and to see if Joey’s not pulling a Beltre. And another year to make a decision on Yonder. Joey just can’t get appreciably better than he is now, there ain’t that much room for improvement. So if you’re going to pay up, do it next season, I say.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
agreed
as much as i lurve me some Joeh, it’s bad business to cut a deal for a guy at peak-value. let him play for the minimum another year and see where we are.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 4, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions
You much of a discount do you need...
…to satisfy yourself that your probably savings are worth the risk of your uncertainty.
I ran some VERY quick numbers, and based on a fairly conservative projection of Votto moving forward (assuming no additional improvement, 3.5 WAR true talent level, fairly aggressive aging given his age, etc), we can expect that he will earn somewhere around $37 million over the next 5 years. That’s one more year at slave wages, plus three arbitration years, plus one year of free agency.
So if his probable value is $37 million, how much below that value do you need Votto to take a discount to satisfy the risk you’re going to assume in terms of flareout, catestrophic injury, etc? $30/5? $25/5? $20/5? That’s what the Reds need to decide at this point.
my question is:
If his probably value is 37m from 2010-2014, is it much MORE than 37m from 2011-2015?
If you give another year, you can see if Yonder is going to be a major league force and where he fits on the field (or in a trade), you can see if Joey can play 150+ games a season, etc.
I just can’t see Joey improving that much more. And if he does, I mean, awesome. But I’d wait one more year to see what the gameplan may be.
The same would not go for Cueto, who I would be trying to sign long-term. Bailey, Bruce (and obviously Edinson) could afford to wait, too, I think
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
$8 million more (again, by a pretty quick and dirty estimate)
But you get less of a discount each year a player gets closer to free agency. So while he’s worth $8 million more (market-even deal) over five years if you sign him a year from now, you might get him signed for $15 million less if you do it now. He also might put together a banner year next year, which would raise his projection, and cost you even more. But if he has a poor year, … frankly, it probably won’t hurt his projection all that much compared to what I have him at right now.
I don’t really see the point about Yonder. He might make it. He might not. If he does, and you’ve already signed Votto, then you have an above-average player with a below-market contract available to deal. That’s a nice chip on the trade market.
I’m much more inclined to lock up position players than pitchers to this kind of deal, because your injury risk is so much higher for pitchers. But even then, there’s a number where I’d sign Cueto or Bailey long-term. It might be getting so low, though, that they’d opt to risk it and go year-to-year. Bruce is in a similar spot, simply because he doesn’t project very well right now. I’m comfortable forecasting that he’ll improve given his minor league history and scouting merits, but by how much? I’m not sure it’d be enough to get him to sign for a discount.
-j
Another take
If you let him get to his arbitration years, he’ll already be set to make enough money to live comfortably for life (he could make ~$6 million his first arbitration year). So, you lose a big part of your bargaining position, which is that you’re offering a lifetime of financial security in exchange for a deal that should be a lot less than what you’d make going year-to-year.
-j
by JinAZ on Oct 4, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Makes a lot of sense
I suppose a better way to phrase what I was arguing is “Is it worth buying an extra year at market price later on to have another year of flexibility?”
I think that Yonder does make a big difference, from the team’s perspective…if you give up a huge prospect, you better get a huge return, which is a lot of stress to put on the GM’s back. But maybe Jocketty has the stones to handle it.
And yeah, your “Another take” response made a ton of sense, so I’m willing to concede these after all.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
Of course, they know when the contracts will expire.
I get that Votto would rather get at least some of that money up front, but otherwise, the expiration of those contracts is pretty irrelevant. They know when that will happen, so waiting provides them no additional information.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
If you sign him now, you get him for below-market value...
…on his projection, which will be below his average performance of the last two years. Smart teams do this. Players will take a big cut because you’re guaranteeing them more money then they’d ever need, even if it’s less than they’d likely make if they go year-to-year. They get security. You get a below-market contract. You can insure your risk by doing the same with your other good young players (Bruce, Cueto, etc).
That assumes, of course, that Votto wants to sign. I remember Neal Huntington saying that some guys prefer to go year to year so they can make more money. But I’d think that most would gladly trade a few million per year for a guaranteed multi-million contract. The first million you make is more important than the next 20 million…
-j
Great recap
I like the choice of pic, I was concerned about Berry when he went down, it was a nice dodge!
i was concerned about the Reds when Berry got up
The Reds need a new manager, one like Putin.
by justin007000 on Oct 5, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
"# # Final attendance at Great American Ball Park was 1,747,919 this year, the smallest number since 1986."
GABP was around in ’86?
People would hang around outside Riverfront in the spot where GABP would be built
Who are you, Gray?
veggie burgers for everyone!
if they’re on special
Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,
by 'tHan on Oct 4, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
27-13 over the last 40 games!
Several dozen fans watched some great baseball!
Where have you gone, Johnny Vander Meer?
even though alot of it was against the Pirates
it was still good enough for one of the best records (or the best?) over that period of time
and the Astros
sans Oswalt, thank god.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Oct 4, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions
how come
none of the players’ named linkified?
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Actually it was because when I went to run the auto-tagger, it kept glitching out
by Brendanukkah on Oct 4, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
even when I don't run auto-tagger
The names all linkify.
That’s why I was wondering how you got it not to.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Season's just starting..
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
Seasons in the sun
The man who will one day be President is, at this moment, lying in his cradle, trying to find some strategic way to get his big toe in his mouth.
-Mark Twain
great pic
does Bubbafan do football pictures?
Don't pick a fight with an old man. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.
It does look almost good enough to be a Buubba-Pic
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
My offseason wish is that END gets traded so the nickname will go away with him
roar
Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,
But he's my only friend, the END
by Brendanukkah on Oct 4, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Can you picture what will be?
The man who will one day be President is, at this moment, lying in his cradle, trying to find some strategic way to get his big toe in his mouth.
-Mark Twain
I think it is incumbant upon all of us peons to thank the main Mods for keeping the Dream know as RR alive.
A special Madville Del Rio congratulatory handshake to Slyde for putting up with the non-sabremetricssludge like me…in fact I am in favor of an international RR party.
The party chairs- obc and jch69 need to meet and put together an international RR get together at Slyde’s house.
What do you say gang? We can pay for it by putting on a show! Sully and Poodle c’mon throw something together!
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
I suppose I could get the band back together
Needless to say, this didn't work and everybody died.
by SullivanSmith on Oct 5, 2009 1:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Does anyone else get the song referenced in the headline?
“Unsatisfied” by the Replacements. Best song by the best American band of the ’80s (and beyond).
Also my little shout out to Fat Vegas Alan
He suggested that should be the theme song for this year.
one day he will actually stick around
The Reds need a new manager, one like Putin.
by justin007000 on Oct 5, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Round numbers are great!!i!
And Brandon and CoCo hit them.
Brandon had 50 RBIs (base 19).
Coco had 30 saves (base 13).
Once we get over our Earthian/homo-sapiens base-10 hegemony, we can see that everyone gets to hit a round-number milestone!
Heck, even T-Virus got 50 swipes (base 5).
I just listened tothe MLB.com season review
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=6956387&c_id=cin&topic_id=
They suggested Taveras might be an important piece of our team next year. Whathave they been watching?
Additionally, why do some broadcasters have an issue prnouncing “Votto”? Just say “lotto” with a “v”. Sometimes broadcasters say it like "vot"+"toe". These types of issues are hot button debate topics to consider in the offseason
I think
those announcers are using the original Italian pronunciation, or something close to it.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I can accept that
if they are going for authenticity, I guess. Can’t say I’ve had much experience with Italian pronunciation. The only case I can think of is the painter “Giotto” and I guess it does sound more like the way the announcers are doing it.
In any case, no one has as much trouble with “Votto” as GG had with “Hairston”.
I swear
it sometimes sounds like the Yankees announcers are calling him “Harriston.”
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Your Point?
Jerry Harrison Jr. is the last living link to the Negro leagues playing the Majors.
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
From Fox Sports this morning:
“In fact, of the five one-game playoffs in the Wild Card Era, the hosts have won four.”
Season-ending grumble, growl, snarl.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Oct 5, 2009 7:55 AM EDT reply actions
FUCKING AL LEITER!
and rain delay on sunday night, and not being able to take 2 out of 3 from Milwaukee, and Steve Parish and HIEROWauisormpsoipmadrfuopasmdrufp.
The Reds need a new manager, one like Putin.
by justin007000 on Oct 5, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
i still gotta hand it to him for throwing 135 pitches
and shutting out a team that hadn’t been shut out since april 30… but yeah, fuck him.
and edgardo alfonzo. fuck that guy too.
The Reds will never travel far
without a little Big Star
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Oct 5, 2009 11:50 AM EDT reply actions
Personally
This is my choice of song for the offseason. Ain’t too much for Joey Votto to be raking in the fall.
by Brendanukkah on Oct 5, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
very good
You can work up a mean, mean thirst after a whole (season) of nothing much at all.
by martinpecial on Oct 6, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
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