Checking out Bill James Projections for 2010

We're still a week away from the World Series, but now is as good of a time as any to start checking out projections for the 2010 season.  I've gotten my hands on the initial set of Bill James Projections for next season, so I thought I'd share them with you.  The full set of projections will be available with much,  much more in the 2010 Bill James Handbook, which comes out next month and you can pre-order here

I've broken the projections down a bit into groups, the first set being players who don't really have competition for their position (yet), and the following sets split up among players from 2009 who could be part of a position competition.  First, the "starters":

Starters
Name 2009 Projection 2009 Actual 2010 Projection
AVG/OBP/SLG AVG/OBP/SLG PA AVG/OBP/SLG
Jay Bruce .296/.351/.540 .223/.303/.470 574 .274/.340/.537
Paul Janish N/A .211/.296/.305 188 .223/.301/.319
Brandon Phillips .263/.313/.431 .276/.329/.447 613 .269/.322/.434
Scott Rolen .268/.356/.453 .305/.368/.455 482 .278/.357/.442
Joey Votto .307/.386/.536 .322/.414/.567 502 .311/.397/.550

The James projections were way off on Bruce, as most systems were.  As you can see though, they are still very optimistic about the young right-fielder.  I think that is justified since he suffered from quite a bit of statistical bad luck last season, but I think we all know that he still has some adjustments that he needs to make at the plate before he'll likely achieve that projection.  Offensively, Janish is a black-hole, but if he's the only one and he doesn't bat 2nd, his defense is well worth having in the lineup.  BP's projection is what it almost always is.  I'd like to see more power from Rolen, but I think that ship has sailed.  Votto is...well...awesome.

Left Field
Name 2009 Projection 2009 Actual 2010 Projection
AVG/OBP/SLG AVG/OBP/SLG PA AVG/OBP/SLG
Wladimir Balentien
.239/.312/.444 .234/.305/.385 160 .244/.316/.431
Jonny Gomes
.251/.356/.486 .267/.338/.541 278 .245/.331/.486
Darnell McDonald
N/A .267/.306/.400 174 .270/.321/.414
Laynce Nix
N/A .239/.291/.476 214 .257/.309/.467

Based on these projections, there aren't a lot of outstanding prospects for a typically high offensive position like left field.  I'd still like to see Gomes brought back, especially given these other options.  However, I'm also not convinced that Balentien can't outperform those projections.  I'm not sure if he's good enough for an everyday starter role, but I think he could potentially put up a little more power.

Center Field
Name 2009 Projection 2009 Actual 2010 Projection
AVG/OBP/SLG AVG/OBP/SLG PA AVG/OBP/SLG
Chris Dickerson
.268/.360/.454 .275/.370/.373 254 .276/.372/.429
Drew Stubbs
N/A .267/.323/.439 544 .267/.336/.390
Willy Taveras
.267/.323/.315 .240/.275/.285 277 .271/.322/.321

To be honest with you, I'd give Chris Dickerson the starting job in center field next year, if I thought he would stay healthy.  I wouldn't be upset if Drew Stubbs is out there, especially if his power surge last season is real (the James Projections don't think so).  Willy Taveras should be gone.

Catcher
Name 2009 Projection 2009 Actual 2010 Projection
AVG/OBP/SLG AVG/OBP/SLG PA AVG/OBP/SLG
Ryan Hanigan
.275/.357/.382 .263/.361/.331 344 .277/.361/.366
Ramon Hernandez
.253/.319/.411 .258/.336/.362 120 .260/.328/.405

Surely no one thinks that Hernandez is worth $8 million more than Hanigan next season.

What do you think?  Are they way off anywhere?  Does this change your opinion of any of the players?

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