Red Reposter - Should the Reds Trade Coco? Can They?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 19, 2009 8:06 AM EDT in News Comment 24 comments

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Bryan Price is your new pitching coach. I dont have any wiener jokes.

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Hall o' Famer Hal doesnt seem tremendously excited that the Reds hired Bryan Price to be the new pitching coach
He says he would have preferred Ted Power, who could jump ship for a better job in another organization, Mario Soto, who likely didnt want the job anyway, or former Reds pitching coach Don Gullett. Price seems like a solid pick to me though.
The Reds held the grand opening of their new spring training complex in Goodyear, AZ on Saturday
and Jim Misudek as the pictures to prove it
Jim also tells us Mike Lincoln pitched in the final game of the instructional league
No matter what you think about how overpaid he is, we all should tip our caps to this guy. After all the parts of his body he's had replaced over the years he's practically a Terminator.
Here's a sample from this week's "Ask Hal"
Q If the Reds really are cash-strapped, as you wrote, do you think they could trade Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo or Francisco Cordero? A team in the Reds’ situation can’t afford that kind of cash outlay for a closer, can they? — Paul, Dayton
A I’d trade Cordero in an eye flick and help him pack. Saves are the most overrated statistic in baseball. Most mean nothing. Get three outs in mostly easy situations and, wham, another save. Can the Reds afford to pay Cordero $25 million over the next two years while they try to build a competitive team? Don’t think so. Coco needs to go-go.

I would love to see Coco moved this winter, but I cant envision a situation where it could happen. It would take a good team needing an upgrade at closer and the money and penchant to overpay for it. The Phillies will probably look around after the year that Brad Lidge had, but Lidge will make just as much as Coco the next two years, and they also have significant monies tied into JC Romero and Ryan Madsen. So if they look for an upgrade, it will probably be a cheap one.

The Cubs and Angels could both be looking for new closers this winter as well. But even in the unlikely event that a partner is found, I wouldnt expect anything of intrigue to be coming back. The Reds need to free up the money and shouldnt kill a deal over a few middling prospects.
In minor trade matters
the Reds finalized the David Weathers trade last week. They got an undisclosed amount of cash. Thus unceremoniously ends an era in Cincinnati. Godspeed Stormy!
Red Reposter NEWS FROM HELL
As of Friday morning, the Yankees had yet to sell all of the tickets available for Game 1 against the Angels. I couldnt track down whether they eventually did or not, but it is really a black eye on the face of The Greatest Franchise in the World. The House That Caligula Built isnt looking too good, is it?
Speaking of the Yankees
Matt Carruth at FanGraphs says A-Rod is every bit the clutch performer that Mr. November is, and all his computer friends can prove it.

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Yeah that Yankee franchise is going down the tubes.

It’ll really be a black eye if there are a couple empty seats when they win the world series again.

by Brian B on Oct 19, 2009 8:35 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

I understand trading Coco from a financial perspective

But do we think this bullpen is good enough to compete:
Masset (I assume he’d be the closer)
Rhodes
Herrera
Burton
Fisher
Viola
Lincoln
Janish

Bray will be back some time, but coming off of TJ surgery, I wouldn’t put too much expectation on him. Looking at the minors, I think Klinker might be the only possible addition, if they are willing to put him in the pen. Honestly, I’m not convinced the bullpen is good enough without Coco. Not that I wouldn’t trade him, but whatever money is saved might just be spent replacing him.

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Oct 19, 2009 9:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

lol

That Janish kid is a bit raw, but hey, he was a closer in college. And he’s cheap!

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Oct 19, 2009 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And oh lord is he due for a good outing

by Brendanukkah on Oct 19, 2009 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i get what youre saying

and i agree that no Coco means a weaker ‘pen. but i dont think it is a foregone conclusion that the savings would be spent replacing him. a few savvy middle relief pickups could easily replace the 1.4 WAR that Coco put up last year. and Owings was very successful under the tutelage of Price in AZ, and you didnt list him above. remember, he’s not a starter.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 19, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he had a solid rookie year under Price

but in 2008 he had an ERA+ of 77, granted he was pitching hurt for some of 2008, but the same argument can be made about 2009.

i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.

by justin007000 on Oct 19, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But can the Reds replace his SAR (Saves Above Replacement)?

by Brian B on Oct 19, 2009 2:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

"Yeah, I really appreciate all the SARS Coco gives us"

IAN! I'm on traain!

by andromache on Oct 20, 2009 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

SARS is sooooo played

Swine Flu is in now. way in.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 20, 2009 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

With all the swine flu talk i learned a new abbreviation

DNR – do not resuscitate

by ol Pete on Oct 20, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

OK, so the Reds got Rolen to make a run in 2010. They may only be an LFer and/or SS away. Some more SP depth would be nice, too. So I figure it’s worth a shot to try to keep Cordero and keep the pen on lockdown. Yeah, he’s overpaid, but he’s doing a better job than anyone else could be.

I realize that there’s the whole “but ’09 was supposed to be the year. And ’08, And…” but dammit, I’m impatient and it’s October and I really want to see the Reds successful for once, so I have no problem blinding myself with delusions.

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Oct 19, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would hope they'd consider

Ramon Ramirez and the loser of the 5th starter battle before LIncoln and Viola. I think this Cordero-less bullpen could be acceptable:

Masset
Rhodes
Herrera
Burton
Ramirez
Fisher
Owings/Lehr/Maloney

Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Oct 19, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really don't think your bullpen is any better than the one I listed

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Oct 19, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you think Lincoln and Viola

would be better than two of Ramirez, Owings, Lehr or Maloney? I think mine is a marginal improvement, but improvement nonetheless. With how battered he is, Lincoln seems like a lost cause and Owings and other potential converted starters have better prospects than Viola.

Assuming a trade partner is found for CoCo, the decision turns on whether there’s a potential for a net improvement be dumping some of his salary. If rejiggering the bullpen after Cordero leaves means you’re in the hole about -1 WAR, then I’d have to think you’d need to be able to re-sign Gomes and acquire another piece, possible a SS, as a result of the trade freeing up money. Might this would require a yield of at least $5-6MM to make it worthwhile? I wonder how many teams are willing to take on half of his salary over the next two years.

Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Oct 19, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fine, maybe it's a marginal improvement...it's still not very good

And I don’t like straight +/- WAR math on the bullpen. For one, the leverage of the situation plays a big role in a reliever’s value. Putting a lesser pitcher into a higher leverage situation can do more damage than you would see by changing outfielder or 5th starters, for instance. Maybe WAR properly accounts for this – I’m pretty sure it has some leverage built in for relievers – but I still don’t think it’s as a straightforward as “we need to replace his 1.5 WAR.” Put Cordero on that 2006 team and they probably make the playoffs, even if he only brings 1.5 WAR to the table.

This doesn’t mean that he’s not overpaid. The problem is that he is both overpaid and very valuable to the Reds.

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Oct 19, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this is kinda my point

building a bullpen is still more alchemy than science. you cant just replace WAR for WAR, and most of that is because reliever value so violently fluctuates. so it’s quite possible to make one work with the Nick Masset’s of the world. Walt has found good bullpen pieces before and he should be able to do it again.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 19, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't trying to do straight WAR math

(-)1 WAR is a rough estimate of what would happen if Cordero left and the bullpen realigned. It may have been on the low end. In addition to having CoCo’s innings replaced by inferior players, I’d expect everyone downstream to perform worse when placed in higher leverage situations. Despite this, I’d hope the bullpen as formulated above could bridge some of that gap, to the tune of half a win or so, while we could expect Coco to not be quite as good next year as he was this year.

But of this to say, there are likely too many barriers to trading Cordero and having it be a move that actually improves the team. If you want the team to win in 2010, I think the standard would be whether a trade partner would pick up at least half of Cordero’s salary over the next two years – or enough to allow the Reds to acquire players that could exceed Coco’s value for next year. That seems like a tall order. It’s more reasonable to expect this could be strictly a cost-saving move and one that could aid in financial flexibility and investment in prospects. As a move to compete next year, it seems too fraught.

Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Oct 19, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hear Albert wants out of StL

Trade CoCo for Albert

by jsl413 on Oct 19, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It is hard to imagine that anyone but maybe the Yanks or Red Sox

some big market team would want Coco. His numbers are reall good…but boy it wasn’t pretty most of the time and I don’t see him improving with age. We may just be flat out stuck with him.

Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....

by Madville on Oct 19, 2009 6:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

would coco set up for Papelbon and Riveria?

i mean sometimes Walt is like a prison shower, you know it is gonna happen, but it isn’t a good thing.

by justin007000 on Oct 19, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You saw more than I did

but you know who didn’t look all that good? Joe Nathan, Huston Street, the Angels lefty, the Tigers guy, The White Sox chubster. From what I saw, Coco is badass, but maybe I didn’t see enough and am still stinging from how he gets up for the brewers. Now that I’ve thought about it, trade him.

by ol Pete on Oct 20, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno where these fans get off suggesting we trade

Harang or Arroyo… I’d hate to be stuck with another Elmer Dessens rotation. Even though they’re paid a lot, they’re definitely not overpaid.

As for trading Cordero, I don’t see how the Reds do it and make the team better. I don’t see how any team will be willing to take on that amount of cash. We also get stuck with a huge bullpen hole that will probably cost the team several games.

Seems like the best bet for the Reds is to hold on to Gomes and hope for the best with what they’ve got. There’s tons of upside on the team. If the management was wise, they would commit to have 2010 as a rebuilding year, but I know they lack the foresight to do it.

by cokane on Oct 19, 2009 10:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs