Completely Random Discussion Question: Should Vladimir Guerrero end up in the HoF?

Yes.

          .321 BA, 407 HRs, 1318 RBIs with a least a few more good years, he’s likely to hit 500 HRs and be in the top 25 in RBIs for a career. So, the answer has to be yes unless he’s on the juicer list.

I was of the opinion originally that he was nearly a sure-fire bet, but looking at the numbers, he’s pretty close to the line.
Career slash line: 0.321/0.386/0.568, 4.025 WAR
Average from ’02 – ’05: 0.330/0.407/0.585, 5.6 WAR

That’s a damn solid player, though not perhaps exceptional, but I think he’d get my vote. He does get points in my book for having an absolute cannon of an arm, at least when he was with the Expos, and anyone who swings at the pitches he swings at, and strikes out at the rate he does is just amusing.

jayson stark, peter gammons, and buster olney told me so

of all those HRs he be hitting and his exceptional arm. I mean, he is the type that would have a lot more assists, but his reputation precedes him. Fellas know better than to run on him. Plus that OBP is looking pretty gangster too. Couple more years of decent production and he would seem to be a shoo-in.

I know my assignments are not always up to par do to family problems. Is there any way I can increase my grade? I will do anything!

and for my argument, I give you the 1990s, summarized in a single picture:

Considering that he played 7 seasons on the horrible turf of Montreal’s dome (and surrounded by Montreal’s horrible lineups for protection), he might get a pass for declining more rapidly than HoFers typically have. Though maybe not in the MAJOR stats, he did lead the league in total bases twice, runs and hits once each, and intentional walks 5 times (maybe that esteemed “feared slugger” argument puts him over the top…and if not, there’s always the old standby: he’s-better-than-Jim-Rice argument). He just missed a 40-40 season (which would be only the 2nd clean occurrence of the event).

The HR, RBI, R, AVG, OPS+ numbers are really very solid, lots of doubles as well, with three or four more solid seasons they would make him a lock. Throw in nearly 200 SB and a great throwing arm and solid D and I think he gets the nod. Bonus points for not striking out much, 8 All-Star Games, 6 top-10 MVP finishes and an MVP award, and 7 Silver Sluggers, and yes, he gets in. Voters love those kinds of things. But his numbers make him worthy, IMO.

Video (language NSFC)

as others said, unless he ends up a confirmed juicer. So many top guys from his era are not going to make it in because of this. Take them out of the equation, and he’s one of the dominant players of his time.

he only had 3 seasons over 6 WAR and none over 7.5. he’s been very consistent and virtually injury-free (until his recent knee troubles), so he likely got all he could out of his career, but i dont see a high enough peak. he wasnt even the best RH corner OF of his generation.

and steroid shit is such a tired device. lame.

He looks goofey when he runs.

I say absollutely. And his HOF Stats are 3/4 for hall of fame (Grey Ink, HOF Monitor, HOF Standards). I also like kgard’s leading league in IBB argument, for the non-statsy among us. he’s a lock. Moises Alou is a comp, though, and I’m really curious about his case.

if he stays healthy, plays 140ish games per season he should end up close to 500 hr’s, 2800 hits, and 1700+ rbi. That should get him in.

If he gets hurt again and continues to spiral downwards he probably end up in the Hall of Very Good.

He’s an odd case of a very good player who was able to stay healthy and play well for quite a while, but he’s never been completely dominant. He’s no Pujols or Junior, and while he may have hung around the top five or ten batters in the league for a long time, he was never #1 in any category or seen as the toughest hitter around. But yeah, he’s been awfully good for a while.

I think I agree with Caleb that if he can play above average baseball for a few more years and get those career stats up near some nice thresholds, he’s a lock. I just don’t know if he really should be.

Then again, he’s better than Jim Rice.

Just kidding. Of course he’s in the HOF. Are you joking? I can understand if you guys need to make a discussion out of it, but c’mon! This is Vladimir Fucking Guerrero! Amdre Dawson wishes he were half as good as this guy.

When you look at the OBP (and thus OPS), don’t forget that he doesn’t walk. And when you look at that Batting Average, don’t forget that he’s getting those hits off pitchers who ar trying to pitch around him.

Oh and he’s got that sickeningly canon of an arm in right field.

Oh and he plays in the AL and yet still doesn’t DH (until injuries this year).

If people are mentioning Jeff Bagwell and the HOF in the same sentence, then Vlad is a first ballot inductee.

Oh yeah Wilton Guerrero’s brother
Mighty fine hitter, good fielder and is not Jim Rice…so I say why not? Yes he’s a little short in the home run department but if he can play 2 or 3 more years and hit 12 – 15 HRs a year and end up near or at 450 HRs, then definitely.

He’s someone who looks good simply because of his era.

I think it’s informative to look at his comparable list at BBRef – if he retired today, the only HOFers are 2 guys who played in eras of much lower offense, and 2 guys who played in eras of much lower offense and were Gold Glove level defenders. Of the “thru age 33” comparables, the only contemporary players played much longer (except for Juan Gone, who isn’t a candidate) and were (except for Manny) considered vastly superior as both hitters and fielders.
His OPS+ is only 47th all time, and is likely to fall as he seems to be nowhere the hitter he was before.

Finally, if the story of ARod teaches you nothing else, you should not assume that anyone other than David Wells is clean.

The actual voters tend to fetishize a few counting stats and awards, but we were asked to comment not on what WOULD happen, but what SHOULD happen. Even though many posters here have apparently endorsed the writers’ approach, I prefer that the conversation start with a more straightforward but more difficult question.

Has Guerrero been one of the very best players of his time? We can disagree about how many or few to include among the “very best.” Some like a big Hall, some like a small one. But start with this: how many players have been clearly better than Vlad over the past 15 years or so?

First, consider offense alone. Some who put up bigger numbers were definitely juicing: McGwire, Sosa, Barry, ARod, and Manny. Do with that what you will.

Who else has been better offensively? Albert and Bagwell, yes. Frank Thomas, for sure, if we sneak in what he did in the early 90s (more than 15 years ago). A similar sneak gets Albert Belle into the conversation, but he’s not obviously better.

There are a lot of close calls, including Berkman, Thome, Chipper, Helton, and Walker. (I’m ignoring Giambi, a close call who juiced.) Edgar Martinez is also a close call, more walks but less power.

When assessing these close calls, don’t fall into the trap of thinking that because Vlad is a free-swinger he does not walk. He has walked in 8.75% of his career PAs. That’s why his career OBP is 65 points higher than his career BA. And keep in mind that his BA—not the be-all and end-all stat, of course—is the fifth highest by a right-handed hitter to have played any games after WWII: Pujols, Foxx, Medwick, and DiMaggio are higher, and Foxx, Medwick, and DiMaggio played most of their games before the war. That should raise some eyebrows.

I’m probably missing some obvious comparisons, but the fact that Vlad has the 47th best OPS+ ALL-TIME should suggest that there won’t be that many players over the past 15 years who are better, even though the past 15 years have been an offense-happy time.

Then, let’s consider defense. I don’t think he gets special points. He’s only played a few games at a premium position (CF), and although he has a cannon for an arm, his range in recent years is not good, if we trust UZR. Of course, many of the others on our list get even fewer points for defense, as DHs and first basemen dominate.

He had speed, but he was never a great base-stealing (caught stealing too often). Do with that what you will.

It seems to me that if he is a top ten or so offensive player of his time—the fudge is there for those who want to quibble about the close calls or the steroids—he’s on the cusp of the HOF. Obvious top-five are in. So are those lower on the ranks who play premium positions (Chipper and Jeter should be shoo-ins). And of course there are deserving pitchers.

Some people will retreat to the big counting stats and cling to a small Hall. That seems to me to make a boring Hall. I prefer a Hall that has spots not just for the slam-dunk long-career with great ability or out-of-sight short-career guys but also for undeniably great players who gained fame for some special characteristic. I think that Vlad deserves to be famous for all time for his phenomenal ability to put the ball in play on pitches out of the zone. So if his achievement leaves him on the borderline, maybe this special bit of fame should push him in.