who have we added to the pitching staff? Aaron Fultz? Are you saying adding Fultz makes up for losing Dunn?

Jeff Keppinger would donate both kidneys to get the Reds into the World Series.

The current 25 man roster is the best team the Reds have had going into spring training in a very very long time. At least the last 7 years. This is mainly due to a impressive pitching staff. Improvements in pitching >>>> loss of Dunn’s power.

Baloney. Look at the differences between the two offenses. It’s the same team as last year, minus Dunn, Freel, Hatteberg, Patterson and Griffey (plus a bunch of roster filler) and adding Taveras and Hernandez. You can’t say that offensively that’s better than last year.

And pitching? It’s exactly the same except Affeldt and Mercker are gone and Rhodes, Masset, and Owings are in. No real impact players there. How does the acquisition of no impact pitchers make up for the 40 HRs that are gone from the order?

Holliday and Giambi are his short-term investments in a winning record, because I doubt he thinks he can beat the Angels.

Why would Beane invest in a winning record if he doesn’t think he can beat the Angels? Doesn’t that go against your logic above?

We have a glut of young talent in the high minors. There is no reason to go into spring training with all of Maloney, Masset, Bailey, Owings, and Ramirez.

While that does seem like a surplus, starting pitching is a pretty volatile asset. You never know when injuries or ineffectiveness will plague your pitching staff, so having that pitching staff depth may not be a bad thing. Now, if trading one or two of those guys gets us what we need to win in 2010, then get it done. I’m just saying trading one of those guys because there are too many shouldn’t be a priority.

EE, Frazier, and Francisco cannot all play 3B in Cincy.

This is true, which is why there’s been talk about moving EdE off of 3B. Keep in mind though, Frazier and Francisco still haven’t played above A ball. They’re not forcing anyone’s hand yet.

Do we really need Hairston, Keppinger, Rosales, Castillo, and Richar?

No, but do any of those guys project to be everyday major league players? And Castillo is a catcher, technically, so I wouldn’t lump him into this crowd. But either way, are any of these guys worth anything substantial on the trade market?

If we are trading for an outfielder, why do we need Dickerson when we have Stubbs on the brink?

Because, as Stubbs has proved in the past, he’s not a sure thing yet. If anything, your moves are shortsighted. If Stubbs gets up to the majors and doesn’t produce, what do we do? If a guy like Dickerson is still around, there’s a solution there. When it comes to building a team around young players, having some depth there isn’t a bad thing. It gives you a little security blanket, and extra motivation for guys competing for playing time. Remember when we only had Brandon Larson to play 3B? I doubt the Reds want to go down that path again.

At this point, I’d be fine acquiring any of those three, except Bailey would be the guy I’d center the package around. He still has value, and is being seen by a lot of people as a “change of scenery” guy, and I can’t argue against that. His time in Cincinnati has been seemingly traumatic to the point where I don’t think he’ll have any success as long as he’s here. His attitude towards the media, the cans, and the town have shown that he doesn’t want to be here, and when the fans start to notice your bad attitude, it’s like pulling the trigger on the gun in your mouth in this town. Not to mention the recent analysis of his mechanics saying he’s pretty much a ticking time bomb. Better to get what we can now for him than to wait for him to have another bad year and turn into the next Gary Majewski.

I’m with you, all the way through not wanting to trade Bailey. But I would say our pitching is the same unless you feel like Owings/Bailey will make huge strides and Cueto will have a Volquez type season.

I do feel like we have a great young core and it’s time to understand who will help and who won’t thus trading those that won’t and getting something for them. I understand hedging bets but there is no sense in so much depth in some areas while having no one at the SS position in the minors that I am remotely sold on.

I personally don’t see Edwin at 3b being a part of a winning team so something needs to happen there. The guy’s bat is above average and may get better but his glove is murderous.
 
Where we mainly disagree is that ultimately if we have a winner record Dusty stays. I don’t know what the right moves are but I do hold out some hope Taveras sucks, the Reds don’t win in ’09, and Dusty gets fired because of it but our core continues to make big strides.

Winning seasons increase ticket sales and advertising revenue, therefore increasing profit.

Actually, winning seasons increase ticket sales and advertising revenue, therefore increasing GROSS INCOME. Whether that translates to increased profits depends on the management of that increase in gross income, taking into account how much advertising is also increased, and most importantly, how much those wins cost in cash. And winning does help attendance, but not always enough to make up for your additional expenses.

A short term 7-10 million investment that would possibly make this team have a winning record

How specifically can we spend less than $10M and project to 82 wins? I don’t see any available signings in that price range that get us there.

We have a glut of young talent in the high minors. There is no reason to go into spring training with all of Maloney, Masset, Bailey, Owings, and Ramirez.

I hate when young prospects are clogging up the system.

There’s a moment in the book Fantasyland where the author runs into Pokey Reese’s father on the subway. He becomes sure that his rotisserie team needs Pokey, but he has to convince his team statistician Sig Mejdal, former NASA scientist and future Cardinals consultant, to agree to the move. He tells Sig he has inside information that Pokey is a player he should target, but he knows saying Pokey’s father told him this will get him no where with Sig. So instead he says that Billy Beane advocated acquiring Reese.

The lesson: if you suspect your audience is sabermetrically inclined, claim that Billy Beane would back all the moves you’re pushing.

a winning season is not necessarily going to increase profits (or income or whatever). Fans aren’t suddenly going to be enamored with an 82 or 83 win team. Hell, in 2006 they flirted with .500 and were in the playoff chase all year. That was also the same year they were doing dollar dogs and half-price tickets in September.

It is going to take a serious winner (90+ wins) to generate any substantial excitement with the public for this team in 2009. Your plan does not get them there. I think it makes more sense to hold on to that depth for next off-season, when the needs of 2010 will be more apparent and when the Reds can hopefully add to a team that is more prepared to win big.

I sort of enjoy losing. It justifies my terminal bad attitude.

will suck this year unless Bruce, Votto and Edwin each take a big step forward. Here’s a fun bit of statistics.

.241/.308/.388 4.09

What are those? It’s the Reds team batting average, OBP, and slugging, along with their runs created per game on the road in 2008. A .696 OPS? That’s pretty sickly.

At home, the Reds numbers look like this:
.253/.327/.428 4.85

Not as miserable, but heres what Reds opponents did at GABP in ’08:
.272/.335/.456 5.27

So what have the Reds done to address the offensive issues? Replace the suckfest at catcher with Ramon Hernandez. Replace Corey Patterson with Willy Taveras, and replace Adam Dunn with Dickerson/Hopper/Hairston. Nice.

The Reds HAVE to get a power hitting left fielder. It’s really a must if they want to improve, or even tread water, next season.