Are the Reds finally trying to stop running two plans at the same time?
by Slyde on Jan 7, 2009 9:15 AM EST
in Off-season
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PrintI haven't mentioned it before, but I encourage you to read Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke?'s series The Road to 17, where WHYGAVS author Pat Lackey reviews the seasons since the Pirates last winning season in 1992 and tries to get a grasp on how it has all happened. Obviously it's a little heavy in Pirate details, but there are parallels to the Reds situation that might be a cause for concern - and no, I'm not just talking about Cam Bonifay.
For those not interested in reading the whole set of posts - he does one for each year - here is a quick summary of the last 2 Pirate GMs:
The reality is that the past two GMs here failed not because they were terrible talent evaluators (Bonifay was a good scout before becoming the Pirates' GM and is still a scout in the league for the Reds and I'll still argue that Littlefield was actually incredibly good at what his primary goal was, which was staying employed), they failed because they misplaced their priorities. Instead of focusing on what they thought the Pittsburgh Pirates needed to do to get better, they both fixated on what they thought other people wanted to see from the Pirates, be that the fan base, the ownership, or whoever else.
This paragraph resonates with me as a Reds fan. The last 5 years seem to have been a jumbled mess of varying goals with similar outcomes. Whether it was committing to rebuilding and then spending money just to look like it wasn't rebuilding. Or building for the future while telling the public that the priority is to win now. It never seems like the Reds have a clear, stated goal about the direction of the organziation. In an attempt to placate everyone, they've managed to make nobody happy.
And it was with that in mind that my first reaction to the word that Hairston will be the starting shortstop next year was one of frustration at the impending failure of the move. On the surface the move seems shortsighted because 2008 was a clear outlier in Cherry's career. But then I realized that this move isn't shortsighted. This move is definitely looking at the long term. That is to say, Jocketty is not playing for 2009. Signing Cherry to play shortstop is in essence Jocketty saying, well, we need someone to play the spot and Hairston is cheap.
This doesn't mean that Jocketty hasn't made mistakes this off-season. Given that Burrell's agent contacted the Reds (i.e. he had some interest), it's a shame they couldn't have worked out a reasonable 2-year deal with him, even if it wouldn't be quite what the Rays gave him. But it looks clear to me right now that Jocketty's goal was to be conservative this off-season and give the farm system another year to mature.
And you know what, I'm cool with that. Not because it is necessarily the right thing to do in terms of planning, but because it is an actual plan. As we've seen, trying to keep your feet in two different streams only gets you knocked over. Committing to a single path, even if only for one year, may do wonders for this organization over the long-term. Sure I'd like to win now, but I'll be much happier to win for a long time starting a year from now.
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I have sensed less panick
in the moves made by the organization since Jocketty took the GM job. You can tell that he is rthe one unning things. With O’Brien & Krivsky, you had two guys trying to prove themselves as first time GM’s. Whenever something went wrong, they tended to overreact. This was probably due to the fact that Castellini was in their ear. Jocketty probably looks at this job as his last. He has won a WS, a pennant and 7 division titles. He really has nothing to prove. The main thing driving him is a vendetta against the Cards. Even if we start slowly this year, I don’t worry that Castellini will influence Walt’s decision making. Now, whether or not his plan will work is another story, but it nice to feel like we are heading in on e direction as Slyde says..
"I'm standing at the plate thinking, Where are my hands? Where's this, where's that? Before I know it, the pitch is there and I'm completely out of rhythm." -
-- Adam Dunn
by Joe Nolan's Glasses on Jan 7, 2009 9:33 AM EST reply actions
of course
the downside, for which I only blame Castellini at this point, is that we are a week into 2009 and the best we can come up with is trying to get excited about 2010. I believe that if Castellini had allowed Krivsky to run with a long-term plan rather than pushing the “win now” plan, the Reds would be a lot closer in 2009 than they are now. I don’t think Krivsky is brilliant or anything, but I also don’t think he was ever really in charge of the organization like a GM should be.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
if you attribute all the shrewd moves he made
to krivsky and all the bad moves to pressure from castellini, then sweaterpants was a terrific gm. of course, you cant do that, but i think a lot of his bad signings can be attributed to that pressure.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
yeah, I'm personally thinking about the moves of 2006
I think Krivsky was frazzled by “contending” so quickly.
I don’t blame all of the bad moves on Castellini. Every GM makes bad decisions. I do blame the lack of coherent plan on the fact that Krivsky and Castellini had differing goals.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
I agree
I think it’s pretty clear that Walt and his gang of CReds are not playing to win in ‘09. I’m OK with that because it’s also pretty clear that we don’t have the personnel to do it. In years past, under former GMs, this would have led to spending more money on aging vets in hopes that we’d win a couple more games and simultaneously torpedo the future. All of Walt’s moves this offseason, however, have been short-term fixes that will allow the minors to develop further and the young guns in Cincy to learn & improve.
This is why I’m in favor of pursuing Baldelli at a low price, especially given what Burrell got. Sign Rocco to a low money, short-term contract, with team options, to fill the gap in LF. If he shows signs of being on the rebound, the team can tack on the extra years, but if he still blows, there’s not much lost. Nor should this block any young talent or Votto moving to LF in the near future. Do it!
Youth wins games; veteran presence wins championships!
Slyde, you're better at this stuff than I am, so...
why shouldn’t I feel the sense of urgency Walt does not. Volquez and Cueto are both shoulder injuries waiting to happen (especially, Cueto). The window on their cheapness is rapidly closing (Volquez will be eligible for arb at the end of this year and Cueto at the end of 2010, if he stays in the Majors and makes super 2). Will the Reds keep two pitchers nearing their prime and wanting 12 million per season, one of whom has a ticking time bomb attached to his shoulder?
Although, my head believes Walt is right to watch this team/organization for a year, the rest of me says the pieces were in place to move now and go all 1991 Braves on the NL Central.
Oh well, I’ve waited 13 years since the ‘95 playoffs, what’s one more. By the time the Reds are ready, maybe Walt will be show himself to be the genius who turned Adam Dunn into a number two starter (Buck) and a number four starter (Owings)!
Cueto's shoulder is a ticking timebomb?
I have not heard anything positive or negative about his mechanics. Maybe we should ask Kyle Boddy over at DLM for an analysis. I think with some of the lower level pitchers like Loktzer the Reds maybe able to have a revolving door of starting pitching, at least I hope so. LeCure and Loktzer may not be Cueto and Volquez but they are fine pitchers.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
by justin007000 on Jan 7, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
don't we all
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
by justin007000 on Jan 7, 2009 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
Is Cueto a ticking time bomb?
I don’t see it. Is he really any more risky than a typical young pitcher?
As for the primes, we’re still a long way from that. Sure it’d be great to compete now with young pitchers, but Cueto is 5 years from free agency and Volquez is 4 years away. You can turn over some serious minor league talent in that time span. I don’t think it is any more risky to wait one more year than it is to spend now at the risk of blocking cheap players in the future. There is risk on both sides, but I think it’s safe to say that the Reds weren’t one or two players away from being competitive (short of Pujols).
I think if the Reds could have gotten Matt Holliday in an acceptable deal, then maybe the off-season would have gone another direction. But, given that there aren’t a lot of game changers that can be had for a reasonable price, the more prudent move is to play long-term at this point.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
Cueto's 5'10
and throws 95 miles an hour. Do the math. While I can name a bunch of short, power armed guys off the top of my head, I can do because they are outliers: Pedro, Billy Wagner, etc
As for price tags, I’m looking at arbitration, not FA. Generally, the Reds start balking at the arbitration level rather than FA. Maybe new ownership doesn’t, but I still the cheapness. Call it PTSD.
Finally, Holliday, Dye, Burrell, Manny (adam dunn), would have all made a difference and Baldelli could too. Frankly, why they still havcen’t pulled the trigger on the Dye deal is baffling. All this team needs to get to scoring parity is 20 net runs. Dye does that.
We will have to agree to disagree while I continue my disdain for the ninth year of rebuilding and hope the Reds young pitchers, who were in Top Thirty in MLB pitcher abuse points can stay healthy until the Reds decide to win. Frankly, I am unworried over veteran pitchers being on such a list, but young kids who never threw 225+ innings (counting spring training and winter ball) before? well, that’s frightening
Short, power-armed guys are outliers
but that doesn’t necessarily make them any more of an injury risk, does it? Is there evidence that he puts excessive stress on his arm? I’ve never heard one way or another. The fact that he’s a freak among freaks doesn’t make me any more or less suspicious of his future health. I can’t really think of a comp that got injured outside of Tom Gordon, but the sample is so small that I think either side will be arguing based on one or two instances, which obviously doesn’t prove either side.
Generally, the Reds start balking at the arbitration level rather than FA.
When have the Reds balked at arbitration? I can’t think of any examples, but I’m willing to admit that I may have forgotten such situations.
Frankly, why they still havcen’t pulled the trigger on the Dye deal is baffling.
Well, all I can say is that we don’t know for sure what the White Sox are asking for in return. Rumor was Bailey + a prospect. If that prospect was someone like Stubbs or even Francisco, then I think that’s too much for one year of a player who at best will get the team slightly over .500.
I agree with your last paragraph. Hopefully Dusty will be practical when using the young pitchers this year, but I doubt it. For what it is worth, I have never seen a study that indicates a clear link between PAP and injuries. Not saying it’s not there, just that I’ve never seen it tested. That’s the problem with all of this pitcher injury stuff. Being a major league pitcher is inherently dangerous, and some guys are just freaky/lucky enough to stay healthy while others never had a shot.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
See, we come full circle
where again, I agree with you. You can’t really be a successful MLB pitcher without earning PAP. Perhaps, BP should rename it to Pitcher USE Points? In any event, and I cannot source this with an actual link, but I did read pitchers who rank that highly in their first full season have terrible second seasons (not severely injured, but often nagging strains and pulls).
I can remember Brandon Webb’s second season and Prior really began struggling in 2004. Certainly, those two anecdotes don’t make science, but let’s hops no one panics if Johhny and Eddy regress a bit this year.
Honestly, if Cueto regressed from last season, his ERA would be in the sixes and they would send him down, thus delaying the arbitration clock (which I and Baseball Mogul players may dread more than actual GM’s).
PS. Lastly, when you and cut and paste my “prose,” could you at least correct my typing errors?
It’s not that I think I’m not aware I’m a terrible typist, but it’s still terribly embarrassing to find one is only half as bright as one imagines one is.
Reminds me of the disappointment that greets me in the mirror every morning — “Hey, I forgot I now looked like that! How sad.”
sorry
I didn’t really read what you typed. :)
I know there are some anecdotal arguments and examples of the “increase by 30 or more innings” threat, and I don’t doubt that overusing pitchers is dangerous (I wouldn’t want to have a lot of money riding on CC Sabathia right now), but Cueto threw roughly the same number of innings during the regular season that he threw the prior year. Volquez threw about 15 more. Obviously this doesn’t include all of the throwing they do outside of the season, but frankly we don’t have any idea of what is normal and what isn’t with that.
And if it makes you feel any better, Cueto’s xFIP last year was 4.62, so theoretically, regression for him would be an improvement.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
i haven't read articles about PAP and injury correlations
but I read an article last winter that said that many of the pitchers who at the top of that list drastically lose effectiveness, in 2006 Willis with 4th, Livan Hernandez was first, Schmidt was 5th (injury), Zito was 8th, also for shits and giggles Arroyo was 6th, and Harang was 3rd.
In 2005 4 (or 5 if you count Harang) out of the top 6 guys on the list have lost significant time due to injury, or have lost a significant amount of effectiveness; Livan was first, Big Z 2nd, Prior 3rd, Harang 4th, Zito 5th, and Schmidt 6th. The two guys who haven’t been seriously injured or fallen off a cliff yet were Harang and Zambrano, and both pitchers missed time last year with arm trouble.
2004 has a top 6 of Livan, Schmidt, C Zambrano, V Zambrano, fucking Al Leiter, and Russ Ortiz, all of those guys accept for Zambrano have fallen off a cliff or suffered a severe injury (but Leiter also turned 39 in 2005).
2003 top 6 were Javier Vazquez, Kerry Wood, Livan, Prior, Mark Redman, and fucking Al Leiter. In 2003 the 26 year old Vazquez had 4 straight seasons of 200+ IP with an ERA+ over 100, sense that season he has posted an ERA+ over 100 once, and one season of an ERA+ of 100. Redman (29 at the time) looked pretty good posting an ERA+ of 117, and feel of the cliff, never posting an ERA+ over 100 again, but he was pretty average to slightly above average prior to that season, and he turned 30 in 2004, so that year may have been an outlier.
in 2002 the top 6 were Randy Johnson, Livan, Burnett, Russ Ortiz, Steve Sparks, and Colon. Burnett only threw 23 innings in 2003 because of TJ surgery, Colon has only topped 100 innings three times since then, and Steve Sparks is an odd man on that list because he posted an ERA+ of 77 that season for Detroit but that team was pretty terrible so he might have been left out there to die when the bullpen was tired, although he only threw 189 innings over 32 games and 30 starts.
That is all the further I feel like going back right now. That is a small sample size, and is a quick and dirty look at heavily used pitchers since 2002.
PS:
In 2008 the top 6 were Lincecum, CC, Halladay, Verlander (why? he wasn’t that good last year, but is only 25, and has the talent to be a top of the line starter), Cain, and Santana.
Lets see how Lincecum, CC, and Cain age. I don’t think it is far to judge Verlander because he already has shown a drop off in performance.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
you amaze me
I think I will now start giving lists in random order, to honor your memory.
Otherwise, thanks for the input. I can buy the idea that abuse leads to a drop in effectiveness. The question is what is considered abuse? Volquez was 17th and Cueto was 27th in PAP, but the number 8 pitcher (Ben Sheets) has over twice as many PAP as Cueto and nearly 50% more than Volquez. So, while I think Lincecum (nearly 6 times as many PAP as Cueto) and Sabathia (nearly 4 times as many PAP as Cueto) are risks, I’m not sure usage last season is necessarily a red flag for Volquez or Cueto.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
because it's relevant (and i wrote it)
i’ll link to the bit i did in September on PAP. i think you hit on the key note here; just because a pitcher is in the top 30 of PAP for the league isnt a big deal. what is a big deal is the level to which he was abused. Lincecum may be a legitimate rubber-arm freak, but i wouldnt bet on him for next year. ditto for guys like Cain, CC, Verlander, and Sheets. but Volquez, Cueto, Harang, and Arroyo, even though all were in the top 30, should be all right. it’s still an inexact science, but that doesnt mean we cant draw inexact conclusions.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 7, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
that is why I went with the top 6
because as it was stated above any almost any affective starting pitcher who doesn’t miss a large part of the season due to injury will be in the top 30.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
my take
from that thread. The gist is that the raw numbers in PAP have fallen across the board. A high league ranking shouldn’t necessarily raise alarms anymore.
Kind of like how GABP might be the 18th best park in the majors but 15 years ago it would be top three (only reversed, if you follow).
That being said
Lincecum and CC were so far ahead of everyone else that I feel kinda scared for them.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
atleast CC has been around the majors for a while and got a big contract
LIncecum could break down all Mark Prior style on us and not get his chance to see $100M.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
by justin007000 on Jan 8, 2009 10:10 AM EST up reply actions
Pitch speed correlates much more to strength of a player's midsection
than it does to height. The reason Pedro and Wagner are outliers is because they are short and skinny. Cueto is far stockier than either. If he has the requisite quick hip rotation then throwing 95 shouldn’t be any concern at all, no matter his size.
All Mickey Mouse films are founded on the motif of leaving home in order to learn what fear is.
Is it just me or are people prone to believing power pitchers are more likely to be injured than finesse pitchers?
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
I imagine that it's probably true
All Mickey Mouse films are founded on the motif of leaving home in order to learn what fear is.
It feels like it should be true
You figure that there arm moves faster so they are more likely to tear things. But something tells me that may just be folk legend.
but I don’t know how something like that could be measured.
There are thousands of for instances, but maybe we just remember the injuries to power pitchers more. Most of the good or highly touted pitchers throw hard. So when an A.J. Burnett, Paul Wilson, Kerry Wood, goes down we follow his injury and his rehab. Where as when a Bobby Livingston or Josh Hall goes down with a serious arm injury, they were borderline talents to being with so nobody really cares.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
Part of the problem
is that, in a general sense, all major league pitchers have “power arms” where throwing mechanics are concerned. Anyone who can throw over 75 mph (I don’t think that’s the exact number, but it’s something close) has an elite arm.
So, from a physicist’s standpoint, therefore, you’re always dealing with athletes who can throw an object exceptionally hard. Even so-called “finesse” pitchers.
The reason most pitchers get arm injuries is because the energy they are creating in order to throw a ball with maximum speed or spin isn’t being dissipated in the most effective manner, i.e. at the end of the “whip” as it leaves the fingers. Instead, much of that energy is being released elsewhere in the whip — at the shoulder, elbow or wrist for example. Thus, the harder a pitcher is trying to throw with poor mechanics, the more energy that is created to put stress on the wrong body parts.
All this is to say I think you’re correct that injuries to power pitchers are more newsworthy simply because of their velocity and higher profile in the game. There’s probably some confirmation bias at work, but it also seems reasonable that the more energy created in throwing, the greater the potential for stress related injuries. This is why pitching when tired is such a dicey thing. Pitchers tend to lose their mechanical discipline while trying to maintain their velocity.
I think we all remember watching Cueto do this a few times last season. And it is something to be concerned about with him IMO.
All Mickey Mouse films are founded on the motif of leaving home in order to learn what fear is.
I can buy that
can we take it this way, and back to mechanics. A power pitcher with bad mechanics is more likely to injure himself because his arm has to decelerate at a faster pace than a guy who does not throw that hard.
So if a guy has good mechanics it does not really matter how hard he throws because when his arm decelerates it does not put stress on the elbow or shoulder?
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
Wow,
I have an elite arm. Nanny-nanny boo-boo.
Slyde: "You're like the Ike Turner of RR commenters."
It's called physics
albeit physics with eyes. It’s also received wisdom from scouts from time immemorial to now. Then, again, we’ve come to doubt received wisdom lately, haven’t me (me included).
So, we’ll see,
but one thing I can guarantee, if Cueto ever sees Dr. Andrews, I’ll be back here crowing about (and crying over the loss).
Ah, bittersweet, my favorite emotion
I think it is more mechanics than physics
A guy like Roy Oswalt or Roger Clemans throws hard and has good mechanics and stays healthy. Mark Prior has terrible mechanics and is injured.
Also to go with my argument of above of that there are more good power pitchers than finesse pitchers… Good pitchers will be more likely to be abused, because unless the bullpen was trashed the night before, why would you leave Josh Fogg in for the 7th when he gave you 6 okay innings and seems to be tiring?
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
disregard the title of the post because mechanics are physics
but the rest is worth reading in my less than humble opinion.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
There are a number of scouts
who claimed Prior had perfect mechanics and practiced them. Still, I think I’ll amend my argument (before I am figuratively beaten into a weeping pulp) to say all pitching is dangerous (see Slyde above) and I just think this club relies so much on two youngsters and those young ‘ins are, percentage wise, bound to fail BEFORE Walt’s clock for contention is ready.
That’s what i worry about.
PS Josh Fogg can bring the mid-70 heat like few middle schoolers around
don't feel bad
I think there is respect for your opinion on this one. This is not just people thinking you are an idiot. I think there is enough gray area/unknown on this subject that it’s worth discussing. I appreciate that you brought it up. We haven’t talked about this in a while and it’s better than talking about losing in 2009. :)
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
The human eye is too slow
to catch much of what’s important in pitching mechanics.
There’s also a wealth of baseball literature out there that suggests relying on received baseball wisdom has been more damaging to pitchers than any other facet of the game.
Now, I have no idea if Cueto relies too much on his arm or not. He might. I’m just saying that looking at his stature isn’t the best way to figure out what his pitch speed should be.
And if Cueto is overthrowing it’s more likely that his elbow will be the “ticking time bomb.”
All Mickey Mouse films are founded on the motif of leaving home in order to learn what fear is.
Fine by me
If it’s his elbow from the way he throws and the difficulty of a slider, then those are fixed within 12 months and a cheap Cueto returns to the 2011 Reds ready to be the second or third starter on a playoff team.
Sure, it would hard on him, but I’ve completely commodified him, just like MLB does.
Shoulder injuries, though….they are still very scary
will somebody go to driveline and ask for an analysis of Cueto
I would but I already asked for Bailey.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
I emailed Kyle
Saber-scouting did a profile of Cueto last March. Here is the part on his mechanics:
Mechanics – Simple and quick, similar to Octavio Dotel. High 3/4 arm angle, clean and easy arm action with some deception in delivery—doesn’t show the ball in the back. Does a better job than most power pitchers of keeping his front shoulder loaded and not flying open. Some concerns with him spinning of to 1B more times than not and also would periodically land on stiff front leg and have borderline violent recoil (you can see this in the video as well). [Note: it was nowhere near as common of a recoil as in the video–I would guess he’s a little lazy early in camp for the video] Given there have been no noted injuries since signing in 2004 despite size and finish, he could just be a freak. Is a good athlete as well.
Unfortunately, Dotel isn’t the picture of health, but he was a heavily used relief pitcher, which is a totally different beast.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
my sentiments exactly
2 mil for Hairston is chump change, and the 1 year deal tells me Walt really likes Valaika. i hate to see Hairston starting at SS because that is going to be messy, but if it means Valaika will up sometime this season then i love it. O-Cab would have been more costly, and it would mean Gonzo is a sunk cost. now when (if) Gonzo or Valaika are ready then Hairston can be a utility guy. Walt’s done some disagreeable things this winter (2 years to Taveras, Rhodes, and Lincoln), but none that are really bad. im starting to see the plan and i think im going to like it.
also, it seems Walt has no faith in Kepp as a SS, which is great, but perhaps this means EdE moves to LF and Kepp plays 3B? i mean, if we really are dedicated to treading water in ’09, why not?
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 7, 2009 11:39 AM EST reply actions
I wouldn't mind a Dickerson/Kepp platoon in LF
CDick hits righties pretty well and Kepp rakes against lefties. Plus, I like the name Dickinger.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
by Slyde on Jan 7, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm a big fan of CDickRun
And have been absolutely ITCHING to break out an animated gif.
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
what if I told you that I pronounced the "g" in Dickinger like an "h".
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
but slyde:
in an attempt to placate everyone, they’ve managed to make nobody happy.
That is what Democracy is all about, you communist.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
So now, instead of simultaneously trying to win now and build for later...
the team has moved to stop winning now once and for all.
I guess that’s something…
We want to build long period of time. I didn’t come here for the shot run.
The human mind can work some amazing logic
when trying to protect against depression.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
Jocketty indeed does feel he has something to prove and enough left in the tank for the 2 to 3 years more to do it.
Like many older successful professionals Uncle Jocko is not ready to be put out to pasture. I think he relishes the challenge to take the once weak and flabby Red’s franchise and turn it into a winner. Obviously, Jerry Hairston Jr.‘s signing is a stop-gap short term move. The only reason that I can think of that UJ would announce him as the ’starting shortstop’ is that it may have been necessary to agree to that ‘possibity with Cherry to get him to sign. I think Walt is in a position to really drive this franchise, and will do so with a ’near/long’ term approach. Walt is not going to show his hand to the media, to the players or surprisingly to RR. 2009 has been designated as a foundation year, The year where moveswill be made to make a run in 2010-2011. Not only does the team need to fill holes SS, OF, C and possibly 3B there are also questions regarding the pitching. I’m not too worried about Harang but I do have real concerns about Cueto.
The 5 biggest challenges that Uncle Jocko faces are:
1. Dusty Baker
2. Dusty Baker
3. Questionable future choices of Vet. Presence Players
4. No RH power bat
5. Dusty Baker
I am prepared to look at 2009 as a ‘work in progress’. It could be frustrating on the W/L side of things but as we get into the strategic planning part of the game it should be pretty fun and interesting to watch it all unfold..
Lingus and Peppermint Panties can blow me.
M. Ville
wow madville
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
by justin007000 on Jan 7, 2009 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
when did i miss that we resigned hairston
and then when was this idiotic announcement made about him playing short?
http://www.redreporter.com/2009/1/6/711047/welcome-back-cherry
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
Something Cherry lacks at short.
We want to build long period of time. I didn’t come here for the shot run.
by Gray on Jan 7, 2009 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Another reason I like this signing
All the reasons stated above above short term and best available cheap guy…….
And this is also a weird way Dusty-proofing a roster with the lead-off spot. We have two or 3 (if you count C Dick, which Dusty doesn’t) that can lead-off. So if willy T sucks it up, Dusty cna’t use the excuse “He’s the only lead-off guy I have.”
I still think if Walt gets Dye or Nady this team has a legit shot at a winning record. I would also argue the if we do get Dye or Nady, this is the best team a Reds GM has put on the field in a LONG LONG time. That’s something to be optimistic about.
by Dave from Louisville on Jan 7, 2009 12:21 PM EST reply actions
What is Dusty's deal with Dickerson anyway?
I know last year he played out of his mind, but does he really not deserve any shot to win job in ST?
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
Dickerson broke up with Dusty's daughter
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
by justin007000 on Jan 7, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
So he's one of these guys?
Where’s Captain Planet when you need him?
"Yes, and it's so important in this sport that the athletes be able to train in the same location." -Cynthia Potter, NBC Synchronized Diving Analyst
by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Jan 7, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
Atlanta, GA
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
by jch24 on Jan 7, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not holding my breath for Dye or Nady, Dave
I don’t disagree that the 2009 team looks improved but it will take more than Jermaine Dye having a near career year for the Reds to win more than 79-82 games. More than
Dye= a strong all around SS, possibly a catcher, possibly a 3B and an above average performance from the pitching staff and even then it appears iffy at best if the Reds could make it to the play-offs. Its a B*tch if I’m wrong but T*ts if I’m right.
Lingus and Peppermint Panties can blow me.
M. Ville
Then Dickerson/Baldelli platoon in LF could be successful
Then you could C Dick/Bald left field.
by Dave from Louisville on Jan 7, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
That nickname
sure does make them look bigger but it could also make them too young to play ball.
Slyde: "You're like the Ike Turner of RR commenters."
We know what internet sites your looking at!
by Dave from Louisville on Jan 7, 2009 7:37 PM EST up reply actions
I rec Barey Legal and www.Smurfuck.com
Mads, he is a crazy old man. Plus we have kinda had the same sabrametric evolution togeather.
Justin
you make me look so insightful sometimes
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
by justin007000 on Jan 7, 2009 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
Rickey's gonna be upset
Rickey’s not going in unanimously. Rickey can’t understand how the guy can vote for Matt Williams but not Rickeyor Mark McGwire. Rickey is perflummoxed.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
hmm
he should have his voting privileges revoked
Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill
by chandrathan on Jan 7, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, the contest is over
Corky Simpson, you are the worst baseball writer in America.
"You are not my ass." - Reynard
by BK on Jan 7, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
Dude votes for Tim Raines
and NOT Rickey. That make no sense whatsoever. I guess he’s just leaving Rickey off to be a dick. Or maybe he’s senile. He leaves McGwire off because of the PED issue. Fine. But the ultimate homer that he is, he votes in D’Backs legend Matt Williams, who was NAMED in the Mitchell Report. Brilliant.
What a dumbass.
For the record, over at Posnanski’s blog, I voted for Rickey, Blyleven, and Raines…that’s it!
You went full retard. No one ever comes back from that. - Sgt. Osiris
by cesarhernandez on Jan 7, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
You have to vote for Trammell
If he doesn’t get some serious support, Larkin’s not going to make it either.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
I'm torn about Larkin
If not for the injuries, he’s a definite Hall of Famer. But he did fight injuries throughout his career. He’s definitely a borderline case.
You went full retard. No one ever comes back from that. - Sgt. Osiris
by cesarhernandez on Jan 7, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
Kinda like Madville?
He’s definitely a borderline case.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
I'm starting to think you are obsessed with Madville
are you jealous of his infatuation with crolfer?
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
the ladder
I think he is our most colorful poster.
I used to think he was an asshole, now i just kinda think he is a crazy old man. Plus we have kinda had the same sabrametric evolution togeather.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
Asshole - whoa that sounds kinda pornoesque!
Colorful yes, interesting at times, coherent on occassion, winner of the Pro fotball pick’m in 2008 always.
Lingus and Peppermint Panties can blow me.
M. Ville
could that be your new sig?
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
Okay, seriously,
WTF is going on with the quality of catchers in the majors. The Royals just signed Vance Wilson. Moeller, Zaun, Bako, etc. are all able to land jobs every year. I’m going out and buying tools of ignorance for my two young sons posthaste. Something needs to be done about this.
"I'm standing at the plate thinking, Where are my hands? Where's this, where's that? Before I know it, the pitch is there and I'm completely out of rhythm." -
-- Adam Dunn
by Joe Nolan's Glasses on Jan 7, 2009 4:25 PM EST reply actions
don't go out and buy tools of ignorance for my two young sons posthaste.
because if you buy catching gear you might be able to make $400K this year plus per Diem.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
my=yours
i did a copy and paste job there.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
I have no idea
what you mean.
"I'm standing at the plate thinking, Where are my hands? Where's this, where's that? Before I know it, the pitch is there and I'm completely out of rhythm." -
-- Adam Dunn
by Joe Nolan's Glasses on Jan 7, 2009 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
i wrote in the headline
don’t go out and buy tools of ignorance for my two young sons posthaste., and it should have been your sons…
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
I guess I should have read this earlier
1. How’s this for an explanation for what Jockety’s doing vs. what O’Brien and Krivsky did: He’s not afraid of being fired. It’s not his first GM job (and he was at least superficially good at his previous one); he and Castellini go way back (so he isn’t trying to impress anyone). So he goes in to Bob’s office, says “We need to do X, Y, and Z; if we don’t, we’re going to continue to be a bad team. If you don’t agree, find someone else to do the job” and Bob says “OK”. I don’t agree with most of his moves this off-season, either (even if the youngsters all progress as planned or better, Burrell at $8M/yr for 1-1 1/2 yrs has to be worth quite a bit on the trade market), but at least I can agree with his reasoning.
2. Pitching mechanics seem to be a funny thing. I remember when Prior came up, and was lauded for having “perfect” mechanics; now, it seems his “reverse W” delivery (why isn’t it called “M” or “elbows high”?) is a recipe for disaster. I wonder if anyone really knows the difference between what will and won’t lead to injury. Also, I looked at PAP last year, and agree that it’s become kind of worthless – almost no one pitches enough to be truely “abused” anymore (with one glaring exception, but I think Harang will recover).
3. I still think trading for Dye would be a mistake, even for Bailey straight up. Acquiring him might add a couple of wins (though I doubt it – thanks to Dickerson and Hairston playing out of their heads, the Reds LFs were pretty damn good last year), but (1) only for 1 year (2) if he doesn’t regress to his career norms (or worse – he’ll be 35) (3) at the cost of a very good pitching prospect (plus possilby more).
4. That writer in AZ is exactly what’s wrong with HOF voting; of course, he’s also why you only need 75% to get in.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
I agree with #1
I think Jocketty has a much longer leash than Krivsky.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
It's not just that, I don't think
He isn’t trying to prove anything, so he doesn’t have to impress the boss.
It’s not quite right that he doesn’t care whether he’s right or wrong; it’s that (in his mind) he knows he is right and if he’s fired it’s OK because he can get another GM job tomorrow.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
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