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2009 Reds Community Projections - Outfielders

Time for our next round of community projections.  If you haven't submitted your infield projections you can do so through this link.  Just a few quick reminders on the why and the what:

  • These projections are being done with the intent of generating a whole team projection for Beyond The Box Score's project.  When all is said and done, we should have a reasonable idea of what record the community expects to manage this season.
  • Don't forget that there will be prizes for the best prognosticator at the end of the season.  The only way to qualify for the prize though is to be sure to submit at least 20 player projections.  Only your best 20 projections will count toward the prize, so there is no risk in projecting more than 20 players.
  • The hardest part for projection systems to judge is playing time, so this is where human estimates tend to work better.  It is important that you try to be realistic on playing time projections.  Try to think in terms of what will happen, not what should happen.  Even if you think Willy Taveras should be on the bench, realize that is not a likely scenario at least to start the season.  However, if you believe that Taveras might play himself out of the lineup, then by all means project that.
  • After the jump you'll see the 30th through 70th percentile projections from the CHONE projections for each player.  Feel free to use those as a guide or to go out on your own.  I have tried to include any current players in the organization who might see playing time.  Let me know if someone is missing.

Feel free to discuss your projections in the comments.  I'm interested to hear how you all think each player is going to perform.

Star-divide

Player 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th
Jay Bruce
.259/.312/.459 .266/.322/.484 .276/.334/.509 .286/.346/.536 .295/.357/.560
Shaun Cumberland
.225/.277/.316 .232/.285/.334 .241/.297/.356 .249/.307/.370 .257/.319/.393
Chris Dickerson
.218/.305/.368 .229/.319/.395 .238/.330/.419 .244/.339/.437 .252/.350/.455
Danny Dorn .224/.286/.384 .237/.303/.413 .249/.319/.447 .260/.333/.482 .273/.349/.517
Jonny Gomes
.237/.334/.464 .246/.346/.479 .255/.357/.507 .266/.370/.533 .274/.382/.561
Jerry Hairston Jr.
.246/.302/.351 .254/.316/.370 .265/.328/.395 .275/.342/.422 .284/.353/.441
Chris Heisy
.231/.279/.322 .244/.296/.349 .256/.310/.382 .268/.325/.410 .281/.341/.439
Sean Henry
.228/.280/.338 .238/.296/.363 .249/.309/.387 .260/.323/.414 .271/.337/.439
Norris Hopper
.274/.315/.339 .279/.324/.342 .290/.339/.364 .299/.350/.382 .311/.364/.409
Laynce Nix
.237/.290/.423 .246/.301/.449 .253/.312/.466 .263/.324/.491 .273/.336/.518
Drew Stubbs
.209/.277/.295 .218/.290/.316 .229/.306/.344 .242/.322/.375 .254/.337/.402
Willy Taveras
.261/.310/.318 .268/.319/.332 .273/.328/.341 .282/.337/.361 .287/.345/.368

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Very nice interface, Slyde.

You may want to specify a format for the averages (i.e., use decimal points or not), since different people might do it different ways.

I think this is going to generate a huge amount of response. You may even want the averages to be in .005 increments and make them drop-downs and have the “name” and “e-mail address” blocks automatically fill-in once someone has put in a response. The PAs could be in 5 PA increments as well.

No, I'm not Reynard's Ass either.

by Paul Householder on Jan 28, 2009 11:18 AM EST reply actions  

that'd be nice

but I can’t do any of that, except for dropdowns and I figure people can type. It’s not a big deal if they don’t put decimals since I’ll know what they mean and can fix it.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 28, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions  

sorry slyde

i didn’t even think about decimals.

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Jan 28, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions  

/justin'd

No, I'm not Reynard's Ass either.

by Paul Householder on Jan 28, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

As for my predictions...

I think Willy Taveras is going to be The Suck. He is going to hover around .260 with few walks and slug like Juan Pierre. Nevertheless, he is the center fielder and unfortunately quite durable, so Dusty will give him 600 PA.

I am somewhat optimistic about Jay Bruce.

No, I'm not Reynard's Ass either.

by Paul Householder on Jan 28, 2009 11:19 AM EST reply actions  

does anyone else find it strange

that Bruce and Gomes are so close in projection?

My millions are unconventional!

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 28, 2009 6:01 PM EST reply actions  

Gomes has a much wider range of possibilities

higher upside, lower downside. Interesting that the ‘veteran’ has the wider range than the younger player.

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on Jan 29, 2009 8:57 AM EST up reply actions  

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