If you've been reading Beyond the Box Score at all lately, you know that Sky Kalkman is working on putting together a projection spreadsheet for every team in the league with the purpose of compiling the data and projecting the final outcome of the season. Since this is similar to the projection sheet that I've put together, I volunteered to head up the Reds projections.
We've done community projections on here in the past and they always seem to fizzle out before we get through each player, so this time I've decided to sweeten the pot a little. At the end of the season, I will gather up all of the projections and the person who has the best record at projecting players (minimum 20 different players projected) will win a prize package valued at approximately $150. Prizes to be determined after I find out if I get any free stuff thrown my way. If no free stuff, I will dip into the RR slush fund for something real nice, or at the very least a gift card. Projections will be rated based on how close you come in each category, including plate appearances. Hopefully this will perk your interest and encourage you to read on and get involved with this project.
So, now that I hopefully have you interested, let me tell you what I'm looking for. Lower down the page you will see an input form to choose a player and enter his projected plate appearances, batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. When it comes to plate appearances, try to think in terms of what will happen, not what should happen. Even if you think Willy Taveras should be on the bench, realilze that is not a likely scenario at least to start the season. However, if you believe that Taveras might play himself out of the lineup, then by all means project that. But please try to be realistc.
Another way to think about it is, if you think there is a 75% chance that Chris Dickerson will reach 500 PA, but there is also a 25% chance that he'll only get 200 PAs, then put 425 PAs as a compromise. This way we can keep a balance between best and worst case scenarios.
When it comes to playing time, try to get your overall plate appearances to around 695 per position (if one spot goes a little high, try to adjust another down a bit). It doesn't have to be precise, but again, try to be realistic.
As for the other numbers, below I have included the 30th-70th percentile probabilities for each player based on the CHONE projections. This should give you an idea of what is an optimistic projection for a player vs. what is pessimistic. You can feel free to use those or go out on your own how you see fit. It's your opinion, so use it as you please.
I have tried to include all players who will potentially see some playing time in the bigs in 2009. I did not include anybody who has not played above Single-A yet. You do not need to project every player, just players that you think will play for the Reds. For the contest, you will not be penalized for players you do not project, but you do have to project at least 20 players to be entered. Only your top 20 best projections will be used.
NOTE: Jerry Hairston Jr. will be included with the outfielders.
Thank you for participating. Keep an eye out for the other positions in the coming weeks.