John Sickels book excerpt on Chris Dickerson

Chris Dickerson, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Bats: L Throws: L HT: 6-4 WT: 212 DOB: April 10, 1982

I wrote last year that Chris Dickerson struck out too much and wouldn’t hit for average in the majors, but that his speed, willingness to take walks, sparks of power, and excellent defense would make him a valuable fourth outfielder. That’s still my analysis, and I don’t think you will see him hit .304 in a full season. I think he’s a .240-.250 hitter in the Show, so he’s likely due for a correction. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him hit .220 in 2009, causing everyone to get down on him, but then stabilize at his real level of ability in 2010. And his real level of ability is pretty good: he’s made strides turning his excellent tools into skills. He could help a lot of teams as long as his weaknesses are accounted for. Grade C+.

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I strongly encourage you to buy Sickels' Prospect Book. It's one of the most thorough resources out there for minor league prospects. I can't recommend it enough.

about 3 years ago Slyde 12 comments 0 recs |

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yeesh

you can tell he’s a scout.

“… I don’t think you will see him hit .304 in a full season. I think he’s a .240-.250 hitter in the Show, so he’s likely due for a correction. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him hit .220 in 2009, causing everyone to get down on him, but then stabilize at his real level of ability in 2010.”

How about “I think he’s a .240-.250 hitter in the Show, so I think that’s what he’ll hit in 2009.”

That’s just as bad as Dusty’s reasoning for continuing to start Corey Patterson: “Every time he doesn’t get a hit the odds of him getting one next time go up.”

FIRE DUSTY BAKER

by Blue on Jan 19, 2009 4:38 PM EST reply actions

I don't think he said that Dickerson will hit .220

just that .220 isn’t out of the realm of possibility. I think the general point he is trying to make is that anyone expecting him to hit .300 is probably going to be disappointed. Similarly, if he hits .220 and people give up on him, they are doing so too quickly.

At least that’s how I took it.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 19, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

John

actually isn’t a trained scout at all. He is just a guy who writes about baseball, will input his own opinions on what he saw while mixing in some stats.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Jan 19, 2009 5:52 PM EST up reply actions

C-Dick was showing some unforseen power at the end of last season...

Although he’ll most like revert to the back of his baseball card…I’d love to see him get a real shot in ST.

Mads, he is a crazy old man. Plus we have kinda had the same sabrametric evolution togeather.

Justin

by Madville on Jan 19, 2009 5:54 PM EST reply actions

His power

blossomed some over the last year and a half or so. I wouldn’t expect his numbers to revert back to his minor league averages, because he has developed over time…. but he isn’t going to hit 30 HR (like he would have been on pace to do with last years debut) either.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Jan 19, 2009 6:52 PM EST up reply actions

Finally a dose of reality

The C-Dick man-love reds blogosphere has been hyping him up all winter. It’s nice to see someone who has an opposing point of view.

by Dave from Louisville on Jan 19, 2009 7:25 PM EST reply actions

yeah, he showed us?

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 19, 2009 7:46 PM EST up reply actions

You see that, boy? Your old man was right, not Flanders!

We are doomed!

by Red Menace on Jan 20, 2009 2:30 AM EST up reply actions

save it buddy

by socalkid on Jan 23, 2009 12:01 AM EST up reply actions

you tell 'em

and hi, hello, and welcome.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 23, 2009 11:22 AM EST up reply actions

I dont think its an opposing view

If Dickerson can hit around .250 and add his traditional 60-88 BB with 20 HRs and plus defense in LF and you have an extremely valuable commodity that is salary controlled for the next 2 years.
You basically have a player that his worth around 8-10 million controlled for 500k. Certainly a projection that is worth the Reds committing 500-600 PA for next year.

by davidmac84 on Jan 19, 2009 9:06 PM EST reply actions