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Breaking Down Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce busted on to the scene last year at the end of May and didn't really cool off for the first 2.5 weeks of the season, after which he was hitting .382/.468/.632 and looked pretty much invincible.

And then the league started to figure him out and Jay went cold for the next 2.5 months, posting a .217/.244/.368 over his next 270 plate appearances with 74 strikeouts and just 9 walks.

He did manage to put up a solid month of September and finished the year with a respectable line of .254/.314/.453 - not bad for a 21-year old rookie.

Let's see if we can take a look at our sparkling new graphs and learn a little about Bruce's successes and struggles.

Bruce_2008_all_medium

Star-divide

Click any image below to view a larger version above

Versus All Fastball Change Up Slider Curveball
RHB Bruce_2008_rhp_all Bruce_2008_rhp_fa Bruce_2008_rhp_ch Bruce_2008_rhp_sl Bruce_2008_rhb_cu
LHB Bruce_2008_lhp_all Bruce_2008_lhp_fa Bruce_2008_lhp_ch Bruce_2008_lhb_sl Bruce_2008_lhb_cu
  Additional Graphs:
First Pitch of the At Bat | With the Bases Empty | With Men on Base

The new yellow area behind the circles represents a cluster of power for the hitter. You'll see once we start looking at other players that Bruce actually has a small power cluster for somebody who posted decent slugging percentage.  This is likely because of Bruce's high strikeout rate.  As you can see in pretty much all of the graphs, Bruce fails to make contact quite a bit on his swings, especially right in the middle of the zone.  When he does make contact, though, he hits the ball hard.  And that's what he was doing the first couple of weeks with the Reds, until he faced his first knuckleballer (Tim Wakefield) and then went into a tailspin.  (I have no proof that the knuckleball affected him, but that's pretty much when Bruce started making much less contact.)

Some thoughts on what I see based on these charts:

  • Bruce likes to swing the bat.  He's no Brandon Phillips, but there are very few pale circles on his chart.  The good news is that he tends to lay off pitches that he can't handle, but the bad news is that he has some serious contact issues.
  • Bruce killed fastballs from right-handers, as you might expect, but struggled against fastballs in the strike zone from left-handers.  In fact, he did much better on fastballs out of the strike zone that he did within the zone.  This table shows his slugging percentage on fastballs:

    Versus In Zone Out Zone
    RHP .598 .571
    LHP .343 1.500

    This is likely a sample size issue as much as anything (he only swung at 43 fastball from lefties outside the zone), but one thing I noticed about all of these charts is that Bruce showed some serious pop on pitches up and off the plate last season.
  • While he has some pop up and out of the zone, he really struggles with the low-and-away pitch.  This is especially evident in the changeups from right-handers.  As you would expect, righties like to hit that lower outside corner with changeups, and I imagine that this was one of the huge adjustments for Bruce from the minors.  Look at the graph for right-handed change ups.  I doubt you see that much consistency in the minors, especially from a quality change up.  Hopefully this is an area that Bruce will naturally improve in with more experience.

    The following chart shows the breakdown of pitches by each zone.  The inner 4 squares represent the quadrants of the strike zone and the 8 outer squares are pitches outside of the zone.  Each square lists the percentage of pitches in that area, the percentage of pitches swung at in that area, the percentage of swings that made contact, and Bruce's slugging percentage on pitches in that area.

    Pit: 5.6%
    Sw: 32.6%
    Con: 45.9%
    SLG: 1.000
    Pit: 3.5%
    Sw: 28.2%
    Con: 48.5%
    SLG: .667
    Pit: 8.3%
    Sw: 45.9%
    Con: 72.7%
    SLG: 1.102
    Pit: 10.6%
    Sw: 84.6%
    Con: 80.6%
    SLG: .714
    Pit: 8.8%
    Sw: 75.3%
    Con: 84.9%
    SLG: .361
    Pit: 3.5%
    Sw: 17.6%
    Con: 81.0%
    SLG: 1.600
    Pit: 10.6%
    Sw: 41.7%
    Con: 73.6%
    SLG: .338
    Pit: 16.8%
    Sw: 69.8%
    Con: 76.7%
    SLG: 1.102
    Pit: 10.2%
    Sw: 63.9%
    Con: 80.6%
    SLG: 1.600
    Pit: 5.7%
    Sw: 17.3%
    Con: 63.6%
    SLG: .800
    Pit: 11.2%
    Sw: 28.4%
    Con: 34.6%
    SLG: .240
    Pit: 5.9%
    Sw: 28.9%
    Con: 26.3%
    .SLG: 000

    The good news is that there is a small margin of error, as Bruce crushes low pitches that are left in the zone. As he continues to develop his zone judgment, this area could turn into a strength if he can learn to lay off the pitches out of the zone.  I'm surprised more pitchers haven't tried to bust him up and in more often.  If you can get the ball in that upper-right quandrant of the strike zone, you can probably get a pretty quick out on Bruce as he tends to swing and tends to make contact, but that contact doesn't appear to be all that strong.
  • More good news is that Bruce doesn't appear to have an excessive amount of trouble with breaking pitches.  So often you see youngsters get overwhelmed by breaking stuff, but Bruce seems to do alright  (.649 SLG, though his contact rate is only 63%).  

Overall, I'd say the biggest concern for Bruce has to be the lack of contact made over the heart of the plate. His power numbers still look very good there, but I'd sure like see a lot less blue in the center of those graphs.

I'm still learning to read these graphs, just as you are.  Let me know if you see anything that sticks out that I haven't mentioned.  I'm also more than happy to break the data down even further, so if you have questions, feel free to ask.

0 recs  |  Comment 40 comments |

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he's not too good on the first pitch

is this just youthful over-exuberance? perhaps he should be given the DanO imperative and be forced to take.

im really impressed with the way he handles the breaking pitches. most power hitters his age dont have a clue.

im really loving these graphs. keep up the good work pal!

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 16, 2009 12:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Good Stuff, Slyde

Keep this up you could be like an assistant hitting coach or something.

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Jan 16, 2009 12:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

and now the coaching staff for the Reds...

on the first base line Billy Hatcher
on the 3rd base line Mark Berry
in the dugout hitting coach Brook Jacoby
in the bullpen pitching coach Dick Pole
and behind the laptop Nerdy math guy coach Slyde!!

90 wins in 09!!

by Caleb on Jan 19, 2009 9:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Semi Bleak

Hatcher is the Best
Berry should retire
Jacoby – er that’s Joke Obi
Dick Pole – His name says it all.
Slyde – only bested by Hatcher

Dear God please make tHommy get better…..

by Madville on Jan 20, 2009 3:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What uniform number would be appropriate for a sabermatrician?



Too irrational?

I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck

by PeteyHendrix on Jan 19, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

80085

Has to be.

"I AM ARABIC FOR SUGAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!" -- by sukr on Jan 12, 2009 4:55 PM EST

by jch24 on Jan 19, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

put that shit in a calculator

it looks like it spells boobs

Made from 100% recycled awesome,

by chandrathan on Jan 19, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

rec for you

you should totally request this number Slyde

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 19, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bruce vs lefties

I don’t expect his chart versus lefties to look like this next season at all. I think that is where Jay really breaks out this year, in his ability to hit lefties. Like most lefties, he is likely going to still struggle on the inside half of the plate against other lefties, but I think the rest of the chart starts looking better next year. Jay never struggled against lefties in the minors really, and I think we saw an adjustment period to them in the majors. Will be interesting to watch and see.

by dougdirt on Jan 16, 2009 1:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

My first thought was how I was impressed with the way he handled breaking balls

Outside of the low and away changeup, he had a high contact rate and a good slg on off-speed pitches. He’s got 6 4.000’s on RH offspeed pitches!

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on Jan 16, 2009 1:47 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I counted 8

of course, those are typically just cases where the home run was the only pitch that ended an at bat in that zone. But your point still stands. He hit 12 of his 21 HR on off-speed pitches, all from right-handers. His 3 homers off of lefties were off of fastballs. Six of 11 doubles off of RHP were also on off-speed pitches.

For someone with hands as quick as Bruce’s, that is a very promising sign. Now he just needs to increase his volume of HR and doubles overall.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 16, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

who gets a four day weekend?

Also, I'm given to understand that your mother is overweight.

by chandrathan on Jan 16, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

mlk+inauguration

I get neither. My employer doesn’t care about black people.

"I AM ARABIC FOR SUGAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!" -- by sukr on Jan 12, 2009 4:55 PM EST

by jch24 on Jan 16, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

mine either

but have you seen the buy american commercials we are running?

Also, I'm given to understand that your mother is overweight.

by chandrathan on Jan 16, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nope

So bad they’re good?

"I AM ARABIC FOR SUGAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!" -- by sukr on Jan 12, 2009 4:55 PM EST

by jch24 on Jan 16, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i've got the dvd of them

it’s insane the response they are generating

Also, I'm given to understand that your mother is overweight.

by chandrathan on Jan 16, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

date American campaign

brought a pretty good response also, fyi.

by obc2 on Jan 16, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

are these real?

can we please get some youtube action?

Or is my sarcasm meter off?

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Jan 16, 2009 6:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i have my inauguration ticket in hand

it is pretty.

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Jan 16, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It was part of a segment called "The Stooge Report"

No part of that segment should ever be taken seriously.

"I AM ARABIC FOR SUGAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!" -- by sukr on Jan 12, 2009 4:55 PM EST

by jch24 on Jan 16, 2009 5:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

me taking it seriously isn’t the issue, it’s other people I’d worry about. there are just certain lines you shouldn’t cross. seriously, it’s not too hard to pay attention to national news

by sharks on Jan 16, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

But it's not my or your responsibility to worry about other people

Each person is individually responsible for deciding whether or not to believe something they hear on talk radio. If they’re willing to believe everything they hear on the airwaves, they deserve the consequences.

"I AM ARABIC FOR SUGAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!" -- by sukr on Jan 12, 2009 4:55 PM EST

by jch24 on Jan 17, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

true

but do we, in turn, deserve the consequences of their actions? im thinking of all the hysteria a few years ago when, you know, they were lying to us about WMDs and terrorists and “it’ll be easy” and all that. so many people believed all that, even when it was pretty obvious to those of us with brains that they were all lying. and now all of us are paying for it. is that justice? or is that irony?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 17, 2009 6:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

very good point

for some people it’s easy to see he was probably just joking around. I’ll admit I do it with my friends, but only in good taste, I’ve even made racist jokes around friends of that certain race (obviously, they have to be good friends for that kind of stuff to fly).

problem here is this guy is broadcasting these things to anyone out there to hear it, it’s recorded, it’s remembered, people hear these things, talk about them, and do make snap judgements, because thats the way people are, its human nature. anyone with that kind of exposure just needs to watch what they say and how they say it. its no different than if it were a TV announcer saying it in my mind. it’s unprofessional even in a comedic sense.

he’s a moron for saying it, I’m not implying he meant it, just saying he’s dumb.

by sharks on Jan 17, 2009 6:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i got the 4 day weekend

because my car wouldnt start this morning. -10 degrees was just too much for the ol’ girl, even with a jump. so i spent the day watching The Big Lebowski and writing a bit. all in all though, not too different than a regular Friday at work.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 16, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This is great stuff

I’m curious what this chart looks like for some of the real bangers in the game: Manny or Pujols.

Youth wins games; veteran presence wins championships!

by ben nevis on Jan 16, 2009 5:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

i was wondering that exact same thing

slyde, it would be great if you could give us some benchmarks so that we have some perspective

"I never should have given up the animation rights."

by BobbyO on Jan 16, 2009 6:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yes

I’ll work on it. I’ll try to get a variety of players and break them down so that you see how different styles of players look.

Thanks for the suggestion ben and Bobby

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 17, 2009 7:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ummmm……nvermind, shit. forgot there was a break. I’ll try actually reading the whole article next time

by sharks on Jan 16, 2009 5:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

According to this chart below, #44 can handle the high, hard one

but shows little significant contact away, as McCain warned.

I’m not sure where the clusters of power are, but starting Tuesday we may begin to find out.

I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck

by PeteyHendrix on Jan 18, 2009 11:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

it didn't wait for Tuesday

I think we, collectively, should petition Washington for a bailout of the Reds. That way we could compete in the free agent market and also maybe get one free beer token per fan per game. If Larry Flynt can so can we. Yes we can.

90 wins in 09!!

by Caleb on Jan 19, 2009 9:17 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

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