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Looking at the 2009 Draft: College starting pitchers.

NOTE:  We've asked TT to drop some knowledge on us about the best amateur players eligible for the upcoming draft.  If you would be so kind, please rec it so it stays atop the fanposts for a while. - CS

With interest in MLB’s June First-Year Player Draft dramatically increasing in recent years, Slyde thought a series on some of the top prospects between now and the start of the season might be in order. He was silly enough to ask me to do it and I gleefully obliged.

Remember, a lot can change between now and the first week of June. Some on this list likely will fall considerably and some not listed will jump into the top half of the first round.

Without further ado, for your perusing enjoyment, here is a look at the top college pitchers:

Star-divide

1. Stephen Strasburg-RHP-San Diego State.

Compares very favorably to David Price, but throws harder and features better fastball command, while lagging slightly behind Price with his breaking ball. He is 6-foot-5, 225 pounds. His signature performance cam when he struck out 23 in a one-hit shutout of Utah last season. Strasburg went 8-3, 1.57 with a 0.69 WHIP. In 97 innings he allowed 61 hits, struck out 133 and walked 16. Strasburg is very athletic and draws comparisons to Mark Prior. He was the only amateur on the U.S. Olympic team. He no-hit The Netherlands for seven innings and struck out 11. Strasburg works up-and-in and low-and-away very effectively. He sets up his 78-84 m.p.h. slider with his fastball, which ranges from 94-99 and consistently is 95-97. He adds and subtracts from his fastball quite well, has strong command of his pitches, including a developing change-up. He's very competitive and is said to have great makeup. A Scott Boras client, Strasburg won't come cheaply. Washington likely will have to pony up at least a $6 million signing bonus if it wants him as the first overall pick. Currently, the only way the Reds get him is if he slips because of his signing demands.

2. Alex White-RHP-North Carolina.

An enticing combination of a safe bet and a high ceiling, White features excellent stuff, including a heavy, above average fastball that’s generally in the 90-92 range. White has reached 97 in rare stints and maintains his low-90s velocity deep into games. He also throws a low-80s plus slider and relies on it quite a bit. When it’s not working, his walk total can get high. Scouts rave about his makeup and competitiveness. They’re excited that he is this good and has room to improve. White is very athletic and has played 1B and 3B. White (6-3, 195) is said to be close to MLB ready. White went 13-3 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.18 WHIP last season, allowing 78 hits, striking out 113 and walking 42 in 101 innings. Some very early mock drafts and speculation have White sliding to the Reds, but others have him going a more realistic No. 2 to Seattle.

3. Aaron Crow-RHP-Ft. Worth Cats (Independent League).

The former Missouri star turned down Washington’s offer of $3.3 million after last year’s draft. Crow wanted $4 million and likely still will, although he lacks the leverage he had in 2008. He is advised by the Hendricks Brothers. Crow consistently throws 92 and as high as 97. Crow’s fastball has late life and he commands it well. He is durable, despite a delivery that causes some scouts to wonder if he’ll be an injury risk. Last season at Missouri, Crow went 10-3 2.35. In 107 innings he allowed 85 hits, whiffed 127 and walked 38 with a 1.15 WHIP. He could be there at No. 8 if he proves he can get AAAA-type hitters out with Fort Worth.

4. Mike Minor-LHP-Vanderbilt.

The top southpaw college starting pitcher at the moment, Minor is 6-4, 210. He has above average command of a fastball that ranges from 88-91 and that has topped out at 94. Minor supplements his heater with an excellent change, an improving breaking ball and occasional slider. His pitching coach, Derek Johnson, is regarded as one of the best in the business. Minor doesn’t walk many but is hittable. Minor is a fine athlete and is projectable and competitive. His makeup and intelligence endear him to scouts. Last season he went 7-3 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. In 103 innings he allowed 99 hits, struck out 101 and walked 28. Minor is a pitch-efficient hurler likely to be available when the Reds select, although he currently doesn’t warrant going that high.

5. Kendal Volz-RHP-Baylor.

Volz has started and relieved. He likely will receive an opportunity to start in pro ball, but his future role appears to be that of a late-innings reliever, possibly a closer. He was the closer for Team USA last summer and didn’t allow an earned run in 14 innings while striking out 16 and allowing just six hits. Volz is a powerfully built, physical pitcher who commands very well a 92-94 m.p.h. fastball that has jumped as high as 95. More velocity is possible. Volz works off his fastball and features a hard slider that comes in at 82 with late break. His change is effective enough to get him a look as a starter as a pro. In 12 starts with Baylor, Volz went 3-6 with a 4.20 ERA. In 70 innings he allowed 75 hits, struck out 85 and walked 28 with a 1.46 WHIP. The tools outweigh the numbers in the eyes of scouts. Walt Jocketty doesn’t appear to be someone who will take a reliever in the first round, especially with a top-10 pick.

6. Kyle Gibson-RHP-Missouri.

A projectable 6-6, 195, Gibson could add velocity to his 89-91 m.p.h. fastball. The pitch has good tail and sink, making Gibson a groundball guy when he’s on. Gibson’s best pitch is an 84 m.p.h. slider he commands well and will throw in any count. It is an out pitch. Gibson was used out of the bullpen with Team USA. Gibson’s motion has some deception. Whether Gibson remains a starter as he climbs the pro ladder probably depends on how well he develops a change-up that currently is fringe-average. Gibson has a shot at being available at the eighth pick.

 

7. Andy Oliver-LHP-Oklahoma State.

A native of Vermillion, Ohio, Oliver was ruled ineligible late last season because of his "agents" perceived inappropriate contacts with the Minnesota Twins, who drafted him out of high school. It was a situation that many amateur baseball players have been in without being sanctioned and the NCAA re-instated Oliver. The Cowboys lefty features strong command of a 90-93 m.p.h. fastball that has hit 95. When Oliver (6-4, 205) throws in the mid-90s, however, the pitch lacks movement. Sometimes he relies too much on his heater. Oliver throws an average change and an improving slider that needs to progress if he is to be a starter as a pro. He is a strike thrower. Oliver moves his fastball around well and can pitch up effectively. Last season, Oliver went 7-2 with a 2.20 ERA, allowing 72 hits in 98 innings while striking out 96 and walking 36 in the hitter’s haven in Stillwater. Oliver probably still will be available when the Reds select, but he likely doesn’t warrant a spot that high in the first round.

8. Mike Leake-RHP-Arizona State.

A two-way player, some like Leake as a second baseman. Leake commands a fastball that ranges from 89-91 with heavy sink and plus life. His curve and change feature average or better potential, meaning with a three-pitch mix he’ll at least get a look as a starter as a pro. The concern for some is that at 6-1, 170 he might not be durable enough to stay in the rotation. Others dismiss such talk and compare him to Tim Hudson. Unlike with Hudson, Leake’s velocity noticeably dips as the game progresses. That’s enough to make some think he’ll be better off as a groundball-inducing reliever. Leake throws strikes and will throw any pitch in any count. Leake could be an excellent pick, but is a gamble at No. 8.

9. Tyler Lyons-LHP-Oklahoma State.

Lyons throws four pitches, beginning with a 92 m.p.h. fastball. His curve and slider are inconsistent, but when they’re working he’s very good. Lyons throws a change with decent fade and benefits from a deceptive delivery. At 6-2, 195 Lyons has a durable, projectable frame. He throws strikes. Last season he posted a 12-2 record with a 3.31 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in a hitter’s ballpark. Lyons gave up 111 hits in 108 innings, struck out 92 and walked 19. If his off-speed stuff develops, he could pitch to contact a bit less than he has at the risk of being less efficient. Currently, he would be a real reach for the Reds at No. 8.

10. Jason Stoffel-RHP-Arizona.

A power arm out of the bullpen, Stoffel has a passion for the game and the durability to take the ball on a regular basis. The top RHP in all of California high schools as a senior, Stoffel draws comparisons to former Arizona teammate and current Diamondbacks pitcher Daniel Schlereth. At 6-2, 205, Stoffel is dominant at times. His fastball ranges from 90-91 to as high as 94. He throws an effective curve and is competitive. Last season he went 4-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. In 34 games, all in relief, he saved 13 while allowing 34 hits and 15 walks in 48 innings. He struck out an eye-popping 79 batters.


Ten More to Watch: Ben Tootle-RHP-Jacksonville State, Jeff Inman-RHP-Stanford, Brad Stillings-RHP-Kent State, Alex Wilson-RHP-Texas A&M, Alex McRee-LHP, Georgia, Matt Thomson-RHP-San Diego, Joe Kelly-RHP-Cal-Riverside, Tanner Scheppers-RHP-St. Paul Saints (Independent), Scott Bittle-RHP-Mississippi, Sean Black-RHP-Seton Hall.

11 recs  |  Comment 45 comments |

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This is awesome

Thanks TT! You don’t know how much I appreciate this! I want more!

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 13, 2009 9:54 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Consistently great analysis

on amateur prospects. Thanks TT.

by Pops Daniels on Jan 13, 2009 10:04 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Interesting

I wanted the Reds to select Crow instead of Alonso last year.

by obc2 on Jan 13, 2009 10:11 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Glad your not running the draft

I wanted Smoak, but I am glad we got Alonso. Alonso looks like an animal. Terry Reynolds knows what he is doing.

by Dave from Louisville on Jan 13, 2009 10:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If he were running the draft

we’d have Lincecum right now.

by Red Menace on Jan 14, 2009 1:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i can back up that claim

Also, I'm given to understand that your mother is overweight.

by chandrathan on Jan 14, 2009 8:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

good work

thanks and i followed slyde’s orders and rec’d it.

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Jan 13, 2009 10:47 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Great work TT.

Looking forward to the rest of the series as well. Any inkling as to where the Reds are going to go with their first rounder this year, position or experience-wise?

"You are not my ass." - Reynard

by BK on Jan 13, 2009 11:07 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

With such a high pick, the old best player available

theory comes into play. Of course, signability is a factor, too, but the Reds have been willing to spend in the draft and internationally of late, so if someone slides to them there’s a chance Walt will make a pick without as much regard to money issues as we’ve seen in the past.

Walt’s history suggests college pitcher. He has overseen 14 drafts and has gone college pitcher six times with his first selection. Twice he has picked a high school outfielder and twice he selected a high school shortstop. He also took a high school catcher, a college first baseman, a college second baseman and a college outfielder. That high school shortstop, Cal Hayes, was a third-rounder, though, after the Cardinals lost their first two picks for signing Jason Isringhausen and Tino Martinez.

Here’s a look at Jocketty’s first selections by year:
1995: Matt Morris
1996: Braden Looper
1997: Adam Kennedy
1998: J.D. Drew
1999: Chance Caple
2000: Shaun Boyd
2001: Justin Pope
2002: Cal Hayes (third round)
2003: Daric Barton
2004: Chris Lambert
2005: Colby Rasmus
2006: Adam Ottavino
2007: Pete Kozma
2008: Yonder Alonso

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jan 13, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

4 of those players put togeather a prolonged big league career...

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Jan 13, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's not bad overall.

Morris, Looper, Kennedy and Drew all have been at least productive big leaguers. Caple, Boyd and Pope were misses. Throw out Hayes, as he was a third-rounder. Barton and Lambert have reached the big leagues and can be useful Rasmus has an uneven minor league record but figures to be all right. Ottavino has been a disappointment. Kozma has been OK and Alonso has great potential.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jan 13, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sickels still considers Rasmus an A- prospect

given how rarely he gives out anything about a B, that’s some strong praise. You’re right though, he’s been uneven in the minors. Then again, he’s still only 22.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 13, 2009 12:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I've always been harder on Rasmus

than I probably should be. Too lofty expectations on my part.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jan 13, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Walt has little to do with the draft

Walt seems to be the type on manager that will completely deligate the selection process to Terry Reynolds. Walt would only get involved once money is a factor. I’m sure Walt knows exactly who is one Terry’s board and he has had to defend each position accordingly, but why would you go against this guy.

Which is totally awesome.

Krivsky seems like a guy that would micromanage the draft….case in point drafting Merosco. I doubt anyone would say he was the best available talent at that point. That’s what drafting for need gets you.

by Dave from Louisville on Jan 13, 2009 10:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Generally the GM has the final

say on the No. 1 pick, although he leans heavily on the scouting department. That top choice has become so publicly visible and the GM has to defend it. Of course, often the draft guy informs the GM of what to say and so on. The other 49 picks he can lay at the feet of the scouting director.

I like Reynolds. So far, so good.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jan 14, 2009 9:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If we somehow got Stephen Strasburg

I would giggle like a schoolgirl for a week solid.

"I AM ARABIC FOR SUGAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!" -- by sukr on Jan 12, 2009 4:55 PM EST

by jch24 on Jan 13, 2009 12:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Mechanics might be an issue.

Kyle Boddy is a bit worried about his mechanics.

He says in the comments that he’ll be doing a more complete analysis later.

by cherub_daemon on Jan 14, 2009 11:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why are you such a jerk?

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Jan 14, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

did i miss it?

what pick will we have?

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Jan 13, 2009 2:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

unrelated

I have noticed that Marcel, CHONE and Bill James are both predict Cueto to throw about 150 innings this year, and Chone and Marcels predict Volquez to throw about 160 innings, while James predicts 190. are they predicting an injury? What is the science behind their method of predicting how many innings a pitcher will pitch? I also noticed they predict Bailey to log 120 big league innings.

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Jan 13, 2009 5:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

projection are always the system

they are intended to be accurate at the group level more than the individual level. It’s hard enough to predict a group, it’s damn near impossible to accurate predict an individual, especially pitchers.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 13, 2009 5:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I was just curious if there is any evidence

to believe that after the work loads placed on the arms of Volquez and Cueto last year that they will have some sort of injury problem in 2009.

I remember thinking at the beginning of 2007 that by 2009 this team would be damn good, now it is 2010 or 2011……

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Jan 13, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Reds Baseball!

Catch the excitement…in a year or two!

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Jan 13, 2009 5:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

sooooo rec'd

"I AM ARABIC FOR SUGAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!" -- by sukr on Jan 12, 2009 4:55 PM EST

by jch24 on Jan 13, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i hope it has a short left field wall

for all the power hitting righties we are going to sign…

it’s our number one priority!

Also, I'm given to understand that your mother is overweight.

by chandrathan on Jan 13, 2009 5:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It'll be a great anchor for The Banks

and the bustling entertainment district!

Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you.

by "Red" Moskau on Jan 13, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure any of the systems are that precise

I’m guessing that playing time is based more off of aging curves than anything. And I’d guess that it’s much more volatile for younger players since, well, there tend to be fewer players pitching at age 23.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 13, 2009 5:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

is it April 6th yet?

I hate the off season. I am longing for Aaron Harangs first pitch on April 6th.

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Jan 14, 2009 12:37 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

think Harang will be opening day starter

this is seriously kind of interesting…who would you give Opening Day to, Volquez or Harang?

Both have a good case, but I think it’ll be Volquez.

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Jan 14, 2009 9:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nah

Dusty understands the honor of pitching OD and he knows Harang is the cornerstone of the rotation and has “earned that right.”

Are you willing to make an avatar bet (just saw this done at BtB)? If Harang starts, you use an avatar of my choosing for a week. If Volquez starts, I’ll let you choose for me. An injury to either pitcher nullifies the bet and if someone else starts – well, I suppose we could let others get in on the action.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 14, 2009 10:02 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm going to take you up on this.

I just don’t see the Reds allowing a pitcher who had 17 losses take the mound opening day.

I really want Harang to go Opening Day, he’s my new favorite Red (that’s left). He’s always been a class act and a good soldier. But with this whole “youth movement” thing they got going on, I think it’ll be Volquez.

So you’re on. I said I’d never gamble online, but you’re on.

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Jan 14, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

don't bother doing a google image search on this one

you don’t have a shot.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 14, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Harang has seniority

This is one of the few places where it matters. The rotation gets all messed up during the year anyway, so even if Volton is the best pitcher, Opening Day is Aaron’s day. I’ll be kind of pissed off if he doesn’t get to start.

by Daedalus on Jan 14, 2009 1:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Kudos for the report

this is why i heart this sight. pump up the knowledge. Harangutang get’s the nod and BA gets 2nd because of earned starts and the kids are alright.

by SadbutTrue on Jan 14, 2009 11:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Harang starts the opener

who starts the frigid Game 2 night game? brrrrrrrr!

by obc2 on Jan 14, 2009 8:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The wagon will keep us warm

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 14, 2009 8:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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