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Edinson Volquez and my attempt to explain a new graph

You might recall back in late Spring when I attempted to break down the hot and cold hitting zones for Brandon Phillips and Edwin Encarnacion.  While those graphs were all fine and good, I felt like they were lacking in any real pop, which is partly why you never saw them again.

Well, today I'd like to introduce you to a new graph that I've created.  I have no idea what to call it, but it is loosely based off of this famous image involving Ted Williams, so that's why it probably looks familiar to you.  It's still a little bit of a work in progress.  I expect to do some refining on it based on your suggestions and such, but I feel like it is both overwhelming and accessible enough to be released right now.  So, here it is.

Below you will see a graph of all of the pitches for Edinson Volquez in 2008 that registered with the Pitch F/X computers (3243 of 3389 pitches).  The pitches have been aggregated into circles that represent a specific zone around the plate. Width-wise, the circles are the size of an actual baseball, but for mundane reasons, the height of the ball is a calculated strike zone divided by 8 and usually comes out to about an eighth to a quarter of an inch smaller than the ball.  The balls on the perimeter represent every pitch that is more than the ball's radius outside of the strikezone, so obviously those balls are nowhere near representative size, but they make the graph look nice.

The colors come in three hues.  The red circles represent zones where the batter makes better than average contact per swing in that zone.  Blue circles represent less than average contact and gray circles indicate that less than 0.5% of the pitches in the sample were in that zone.  The shade of the circle also has meaning as circles with a darker shade mean that the batter swings more frequently at pitches in that zone, while circles with a lighter shade represent fewer swings per pitch. 

Finally, the numbers in the circle represent the slugging percentage of the batter(s) on pitches in that zone.  I feel like slugging is most representative of the type of contact being made by the batter, so that's why I chose it over the batting average in the Williams' picture.

Volquez_2008_all_medium

Star-divide

Click any image below to view a larger version above

Versus All Fastball Change Up Slider Curveball
RHB Volquez_2008_rhb_all_medium Volquez_2008_rhb_fa_medium Volquez_2008_rhb_ch_medium Volquez_2008_rhb_sl_medium Volquez_2008_rhb_cu_medium
LHB Volquez_2008_lhb_all_medium Volquez_2008_lhb_fa_medium Volquez_2008_lhb_ch_medium Volquez_2008_lhb_sl_medium Volquez_2008_lhb_cu_medium

The thing I really like about this graph is the ability to break it down by a variety of splits.  As you can see in the table above, I've broken down Volquez's season versus both right-handers and left-handers, but not only that, I've done it by pitch type as well.  (For those that are interested, I used the pitch type calculated by the Pitch F/X crew since I'm honestly not smart enough to use a pitch type algorithm successfully.)

If you click on the smaller images in the table, you should be able to view a larger version of that image.  I encourage you to look a his change ups, especially versus left-handers.  He was damn near unhittable with that pitch!  He's especially good when he kept it low in the strike zone, as you'd expect.  On the rare occasions that the batter actually hit it, they sure didn't do a whole lot with it.

I'll do more analysis on future posts with these graphs, but for now, I want to know your thoughts.  Are they understandable?  Is there something about them that you'd like to see changed?  Should we email Volquez and let him know that he should stop throwing his fastball on the inside part of the plate to right-handers?  Fire away with your suggestions/criticisms.

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Comments

Display:

Volquez's changeup is devastating to lefties

that’s my analysis.

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on Jan 12, 2009 8:14 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'll admit

the first time I saw that graph of his change up vs. LHB, I got a little giddy.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 12, 2009 8:45 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and to righties

i find it interesting that while the changeup obviously works best down in the zone, the fastball seems to work best just below the letters. i would have thought that would be a low-corner pitch as well.

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Jan 12, 2009 1:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We all bow down before your fiery intellect.

This is seriously a pretty awesome graph. The only thing that makes it confusing is the SLG%/hue mashup. It almost seems like a bit too much information…the smaller “maps” are easier to read for me.

..and yeah, cutter’s not working out so hot, is it?

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Jan 12, 2009 9:36 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I understand what you are saying

but I feel like having the color linked to the number was redundant.

One thing that might bring the color more in line with the number is if I eliminate foul balls as contact. I included them in contact because I feel like, especially from a hitter’s perspective, being able to foul off a pitch is an indicator that the hitter isn’t getting beat completely in that zone. Maybe the graph would make more sense if the color was tied to number of balls put into play (including home runs) rather than to contact. This may make more sense on pitcher graphs.

I’ll play around with it sometime today and see what kind of difference it makes.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 12, 2009 10:00 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BBTF's post's comments are food for thought

For someone like Volquez, you pitch your best pitches and kick butt. But what would someone like Brian Bannister, who’s not as gifted but is known (mostly through JoePo) as someone who really takes his time to study this sort of stuff?

These charts could way more useful (and far less sexy) for the Ramon Ramirezes and Matt Maloneys. What can you do to keep batters from hitting well against you?

Slyde, don’t think I’m trying to critique you, it’s pretty much the opposite. This has the potential to be REALLY REALLY mindblowing (as opposed to current PRETTY DAMN mindblowing) and I’m just trying to find out what could push it in that direction with you.

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Jan 12, 2009 5:13 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I want critiques

I want these things to be worth doing, so if you have changes you think will make it more interesting, please say so. I don’t want to do these graphs and then have everyone not care.

I plan to do more of these for other pitchers and hitters too, so hopefully we’ll get more insight for each. Eventually, I hope to have cards for every player on the Reds, and who knows, I may even do some for some of our opponents if I’m hard-up for material.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 12, 2009 5:21 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think this information would be most useful

if it were compiled and archived somewhere on the site with a sidebar link. It would be helpful to have this info to refer to as the season progresses.

All Mickey Mouse films are founded on the motif of leaving home in order to learn what fear is.

by Man Mountain on Jan 12, 2009 5:52 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you are about a month ahead of us

but that is part of the plan, my friend.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 12, 2009 5:54 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

figgerd

All Mickey Mouse films are founded on the motif of leaving home in order to learn what fear is.

by Man Mountain on Jan 12, 2009 5:59 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

wow. that is awesome

And I like having the extra data in there. You can sort of figure out one thing at a time, and keep going back for more and more. After you practiced looking at these things for a while, you would probably get pretty good at gleaning lots of information quickly.

Excellent presentation. I hope you have automated a way of generating them. :)

by bbjones on Jan 13, 2009 2:32 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

great stuff

There’s a lot there to absorb.

by ol Pete on Jan 12, 2009 11:57 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I wonder if it really is a cutter

or just a bad fastball that’s being identified as a cutter. Whatever it is, he threw it a lot more at the end of the year:
month – Cutter per start
April – 10.0
May – 9.1
June – 7.4
July – 9.8
August – 11.4
September – 13.8

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 12, 2009 1:47 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's about the time the league started to "figure him out," right?

Maybe they were just taking advantage of his overreliance on a subpar pitch. Sounds like a job for Dick Pole!

by Brendanukkah on Jan 12, 2009 1:53 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I wonder if it's a new pitch

and by August, since they were out of it, the team encouraged him to try using it more.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 12, 2009 2:25 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Actually, now that I look at it, nobody had more than a single off of his cutter

Even though hitters made contact on 67% of his “cutters”, he only gave up a .320 SLG on that pitch. Compare that to his fastball, where hitters made contact on 83% of the swings and posted a .493 SLG.

Here’s the breakdown by pitch type overall:

Pitch Type   Pitches   Swings   Contact    SLG
Fastball 1733 755 83% .493
Change Up 782 393 67% .460
Slider 385 180 59% .532
Cutter 321 69 67% .320

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 12, 2009 2:41 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

a pitch to contact?

All Mickey Mouse films are founded on the motif of leaving home in order to learn what fear is.

by Man Mountain on Jan 12, 2009 4:25 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm an idiot

It’s not a Cutter, it’s a curveball. The codes they use in the data are only 2 letters, and for some stupid reason I assumed that “CU” was cutter. And then I pulled my head out of my ass. Unless 25% of Bronson’s pitches are cutters, I’m pretty sure it’s a curveball. Stupid coding system.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 15, 2009 9:29 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

to bad coutlangus isn't there to warm him up

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Jan 12, 2009 3:45 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

too*

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Jan 12, 2009 3:45 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nice self-correction.

We might have cut you slack on that one, though. Just remember to heed the advice of this Senator:

I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck

by PeteyHendrix on Jan 12, 2009 4:18 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i am a better writer when i'm drunk

my biggest problem is my mind is faster than my hands. I see a lot of my mistakes after I click “post”.

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Jan 12, 2009 4:30 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There are a frightening amount of things I do better intoxicated.

Lion-taming is near the top of the list.

I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck

by PeteyHendrix on Jan 13, 2009 4:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

but i have evidence that I am a better writer when i am drunk

the paper that comes back with an A on the top of it, that I don’t really remember writing. Okay that has never happened but you get the idea.

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Jan 13, 2009 5:01 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

the title of this post

sounds like the name of a bad eighties band.

by Daedalus on Jan 12, 2009 2:53 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

actually it sounds nothing like rush

Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill

by chandrathan on Jan 12, 2009 2:57 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   2 recs

Hah

Nice

No bees? Then who will sting me and walk on my sandwiches?

by The Crushinator on Jan 12, 2009 4:13 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I want a new graph!

Sounds like you might have some Huey Lewis on the brain. Sports!

by Brendanukkah on Jan 12, 2009 3:03 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

the graph itself is pretty eightiesish

i’m watching game 4 of the 1989 ALCS. love the graphics and the music that comes up with the nbc logo. and those tight pants.

by Daedalus on Jan 12, 2009 3:08 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

im going to take the stance

that the graphs are not, in fact, “eightiesish”

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Jan 12, 2009 3:44 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

One that makes me feel like I feel when I'm with Slyde!

When I’m alone with Slyde!

I for one need more visual aid to make sense of it. If there’s no Teddy Ballgame standing next to the box at the peak of his physical shape, then I don’t get it…

He had alot to say.
He had alot of nothing to say.
We'll miss him.

by sukr on Jan 12, 2009 4:20 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i want that

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Jan 12, 2009 4:31 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

WHO AM I?!?!

I’LL TELL YOU WHO I AM: U2 SUX, AND CRAZY HORSE WAS AWWSUM! – THAT"S WHO!!!! I AM ARABIC FOR SUGAR!!!!!!!!!!!!! AND I’M GOING TO REPORT YOU TO THE OTHER BLOGS FOR TREATING ME THIS WAY……… :P

Anyone pass my email on to you, Redhawk? ;)

He had alot to say.
He had alot of nothing to say.
We'll miss him.

by sukr on Jan 12, 2009 4:55 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I just did

Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill

by chandrathan on Jan 12, 2009 4:58 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

poof

a sukr sighting….then he was all gone, like the batman.

by obc2 on Jan 13, 2009 8:24 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I was thinking more like Keyser Söze

After that, my guess is you’ll never hear from him again.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 13, 2009 8:26 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks dude

I have a new sig.

"I AM ARABIC FOR SUGAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!" -- by sukr on Jan 12, 2009 4:55 PM EST

by jch24 on Jan 13, 2009 10:54 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i'm not sure how to search an image as example

i typed in eighties circle design and got nothing. Can’t figure out which search term to use. I could go through bad eighties movies (the B movies, not stuff like Flashdance) and circle graphics would come up in them. The James Bond opening credits for Octopussy (1983) used such circles, if I am remembering the correct Bond movie.

by Daedalus on Jan 12, 2009 4:40 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't know how I missed this comment

but thanks. I had seen the post on BBTF earlier, but I still appreciate when external links get pointed out, especially from the bigger sites. Let’s me keep track of who is reading and linking to what.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 12, 2009 7:20 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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