Rainouts, Lefties, and The Next Big Thing

by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 20, 2008 11:24 PM EDT

i started writing this as a post at the end of the game thread, just a few thoughts that have been bouncing around in the ol' noggin. but it got pretty long so i figured i would just make it a fanpost. dont worry, i promise i wont make a habit of this.

Monday is a makeup day for a rainout. we havent had too many of those this year. its been a while since we had such a dry summer, hasnt it? in fact, the only other rainout we had this year was May 9th against the Mets, so we played a double header on the 10th. only two rainouts in the whole season...and some people STILL think global warming blah blah blah George W Bush.

am i mistaken, or have we gone the entire season up to this point without having a game started by a lefty pitcher? when was the last time something like that happened? i dont personally think we really need a left-handed starter (our righties are doing a good enough job) but its pretty rare to go 162 without one isnt it?

Jay Bruce is 21 years old. with a week to go, his line is .260/.320/.466 in ~400 ABs. he's struck out about 25% of the time, but he's also clubbed 21 homers so far. he's got an OPS+ of 101, which makes him about a league-average hitter. everyone (excluding crolfer) think for a minute about what you were doing at 21. this guy is a legit major leaguer and has only been legally allowed to drink beer for 6 months. in the preview to today's game thread, Slyde compared Cueto's season to the rookie seasons of some hall of famers. in that spirit, here's a few reasons why we call this guy The Next Big Thing:

Larry Walker at 23 - .241/.326/.434 419 ABs, 19 homers, ~25% K rate
Jr. at 19 - .264/.329/.420 455 ABs, 16 homers, ~18% K rate
Chipper Jones at 23 - .265/.353/.450 524 ABs, 23 homers, ~19% K rate
Johnny Bench at 21 - .275/.311/.433 564 ABs, 15 homers, ~17% K rate
Roberto Clemente at 21 - .311/.330/.431 543 ABs, 7 homers, ~10.5% K rate

Jay is listed as 6'3" 205 lbs; same as Ted Williams
Jay was born in Beaumont, Texas; same as Frank Robinson
Jay's first name is Jay; same as Jay Buhner

Jay Bruce alone moves the wheels of history.

well, maybe he's got a little help:

via lowerlevelseats.com

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Comments

I don't know how to look it up

but in the mid 90’s i think the Dodgers set a record and went multiple seasons without a left handed starting pitcher.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Sep 21, 2008 12:20 PM EDT reply actions

Jay Bruce

Is a monster in the making, no doubt about it. My one fear is that the Reds coaching staff doesn’t seem to help young players improve for some reason. (someone please prove me wrong on this, it would put my mind at ease)

I’d love for him to make more contact but that will come with experience hopefully. I’m just just scared to death that he will wither on the developmental vine under the tutelage of the current staff.

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Sep 21, 2008 7:12 PM EDT reply actions

well...

Dickerson improved in Cincy over minor league production. Hairston was off the charts better. Hanigan? Owings has batted .667, which is twice his career average.

by obc2 on Sep 21, 2008 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Your retarded

But I love you anyway.

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Sep 21, 2008 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions

just saying...

the walk rates on this team have sucked as of late. Some hitting coach who can enforce “be selective” would rock my world. And Hova’s.

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Sep 21, 2008 11:34 PM EDT reply actions

and yesterday they walked 6 times and lost

so maybe I have no idea what I’m talkin about…

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Sep 22, 2008 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Jay Bruce comparison

Jay Bruce has 21 home runs as a 21 year old. The last 10 guys to do that at age 21 or younger are below:

Jay Bruce
Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols
Andruw Jones
Alex Rodriguez
Juan Gonzalez
Ken Griffey Jr (twice)
Ruben Sierra
Daryl Strawberry
Cal Ripken Jr

All of those players also had at least 545 at bats except Strawberry who had 420. Jay currently has 389 players.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com and http://www.RedsPitchFX.com

by dougdirt on Sep 22, 2008 12:42 PM EDT reply actions

Jay-hova has 389 players?

That’s some big pimpin’.

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Sep 22, 2008 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Coincidence?

He learned from the best. Its no coincidence their names are so familiar

http://www.redsminorleagues.com and http://www.RedsPitchFX.com

by dougdirt on Sep 22, 2008 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions

god i hope he turns into Ruben Sierra

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Sep 22, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Ruben Scare-ya?

Ex-red, right? Or was that Ruben Mateo?

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Sep 22, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Sierra played breifly for the Reds early on in 1997

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Sep 22, 2008 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions

both

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Sep 22, 2008 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions

two lines

so, here’s two lines. Probably they will be ugly due to fontage, but hey…

AB / H / 2B / HR / BB / K / OBP / SLG / OPS+
389 / 62 / 15 / 21 / 32 / 101 / .321 / .465 / 101
500 / 143 / 29 / 21 / 56 / 100 / .360 / .478 / 115

Can you guess?

Yeah, you probably can. Top one is Jay. Bottom is Votto. So, why isn’t Joey getting more love? Not just on this list — it seems like Welsh and Brantley think of him as “Oh Yeah and Joey.”

by bbjones on Sep 23, 2008 12:45 AM EDT reply actions

age

AB / H / 2B / HR / BB / K / OBP / SLG / OPS+
464/119/23/17/ 52/122/.330/.425/—

That’s Votto’s line when he was 21 in high A ball.

by Red Menace on Sep 23, 2008 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions

yes

I love Joey Votto – probably my favorite current Reds hitter – but he’s actually closer in age to Brandon Phillips than he is to Jay Bruce, by over a year, and he’s only 8 months younger than Edwin Encarnacion. Votto’s still got a bright future, but based upon what we’ve seen this year, Bruce is likely going to be the better hitter when their careers are done.

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Sep 23, 2008 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions

i'm 37. I'm not old.

Okay, sure, but he’s only 24. It’s not like he’s a Keppinger, finally making it to the show after slogging the back roads in the bus for years on end. Only 8 months younger than EdE is pretty young!

Why, when I was 24, I could leap tall buildings in a single bound!

Seriously, though — for every Pujols who starts early and young, there is a Bob Horner who never really seems to grow into what they could be. I think the Bruce vs. Votto race will be a lot closer than conventional wisdom says. Still, as long as they are hitting them for the Reds, I don’t really care who wins!

[ Guess who lead the NL in AB/K this year, although he didn’t have enough ABs to qualify for the batting title? The one, the only, Jeff Keppinger. ]

by bbjones on Sep 24, 2008 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions