Mark Ellis just got cheaper
by sidnancy on Sep 12, 2008 11:47 AM EDT
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PrintUnfortunately, his shoulder is hurt, requiring surgery. He's out for the season.
I don't know if I like this. I've been firmly behind Slyde's drive to sign Ellis, as you know. But I'd think a shoulder injury could be problematic.
The good news is he's no longer a 4/$28M player; he could probably be had for 1 or 2 years at $4-5M each now, saving money for the inevitable Holliday trade/extension.
Thoughts?
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I'd do a one year deal with a 2-year option
say $5 million for the one year deal and $7-8m for the option years. Make them combined years so that it gives him the confidence of a 3-year deal, but the Reds the freedom to take a risk on someone coming off of surgery. If he’s healthy, then he basically gets the deal he thought he was getting. You could even make the option years automatically vest with playing time limits (say, once he reaches 140 games played). If he’s not healthy, then the Reds are just out a buyout.
I have no idea if this is even realistic. The nature and terms of contracts always baffle me.
"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling
Did he injure himself bunting?
That’s primarily what I look for in a second baseman. That said, I would still pursue him in the offseason. I don’t think the injury will be too bad, and like you said, it may just lower the pricetag.
Could someone explain
the fascination with Mark Ellis. When I look at his stats I see a guy with a low OBP, low AVG, not much power, doenst steal many bases, strikes out a lot (k’s may not matter, im just looking at his stats). So I just dont see why we would invest money in him when I would think we could get the same or better production at league minimum from Rosales/Valaika/Richar or even put Freel back at 2nd. I may be totally of base but I just dont see the appeal.
He's an excellent fielder
according to traditional and advanced metrics. Also, his hitting and especially power numbers are depressed by his ballpark and league. If you translate his 276/336/441 in ‘07 from Oakland to Cincinnati he becomes a 298/360/474 hitter, which beats BP’s 288/331/485 line. He’s a very good player, but like I say below I’m concerned about his ability to stay healthy going forward. Also, if the BP-to-SS experiment fails then we’d be in a real pickle.
i disagree
if the shoulder surgery were more severe, like a torn labrum or rotator cuff or any other serious structural defect i would agree. but according to the article linked, its just some cartilage damage. not “just”, i mean, any injury is bad, but you know what i mean. i would definitely take a chance on him, especially since the price has dropped. of course, this hinges on BP moving to short, and with Dusty at the helm that is seems highly unlikely.
"for integrity of races and the game" - Dusty Baker
by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 12, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Aging
This particular shoulder problem might not be a major issue. I don’t know (in Kremchek we trust), though any kind of shoulder problem would give me concern at least about the guy’s power. My bigger concern is that second baseman age poorly, partially due to their mixing it up with runners on double plays. Just from the linked article:
Ellis was initially hurt in July in Tampa Bay when breaking up a double play but remained on the field, and then he was injured further when breaking up another double play at Seattle last month.
Given the number of good and even great second basemen that fell off a cliff by or in their early 30s (Sandberg, Alomar, Baerga, Knoblauch, Alfonzo, Giles, Castillo, etc.), I wouldn’t want to bet on someone who’s already had durability issues beating the odds for more than a year or two.
Those numbers, if attainable, would look really nice in the lineup, especially with the plus defense.
Or maybe it’s just the removal of Keppinger’s that I really like.
I’m not entirely sure Dusty would have the wherewithal to move BP to SS, though. It goes against the Dodger way, it’s much easier to move a SS to 2B, durrr.
"Yes, and it's so important in this sport that the athletes be able to train in the same location." -Cynthia Potter, NBC Synchronized Diving Analyst
by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Sep 12, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Two reasons
1. Arguably the best defensive 2B in the game. Has rated higher than Phillips in range numbers for at least the last 2 seasons. Offensively, he’s average, but then so is BP. I believe having BP and Ellis up the middle would dramatically improve the Reds defense.
2. He’s cheap. He only made $5 million this season, and while he might get a raise (the injury mucks that up), he’s not likely to become very expensive because of his age and his perceived offensive value (Oakland really suppresses his offensive numbers).
I believe he is the most cost-efficient free agent player through which the Reds can make a serious impact on their roster. The Reds desperately need help on defense – it’s been killing them for several years now. Ellis won’t do much to improve the offense, but his net value is as good as anyone currently on the roster.
That being said, I probably wouldn’t dive head first to get him with this injury. I’d still want to pursue him, but I’d be creative with the contract and try to mitigate as much of the risk for the Reds as possible. He should definitely be cheap, but that doesn’t mean that they should sign damaged goods to a multi-year deal.
"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling
You should work on an article with Erardi
that says what the Reds should do this offseason. I’m not sure if I trust Bob just yet.
"Yes, and it's so important in this sport that the athletes be able to train in the same location." -Cynthia Potter, NBC Synchronized Diving Analyst
by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Sep 12, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
This already happened, if I recall correctly
I can’t find it anywhere on their site though.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Sep 12, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sure we will
we’ve done something like this already this year, but I imagine Erardi will want to do a more expansive version of what can happen. Honestly, at this point I’m not convinced that the Reds can realistically put a winning team on the field next year. But then, I’ve only just started looking at the possibilities and obviously I have no idea who is available in a trade.
"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling
I'll pass
Ellis has had problems staying in the lineup throughout his career and will be entering his age-32 season coming off of shoulder surgery. Given his history and the rapid aging generally seen with 2B, I’d be very concerned with a multi-year deal. Similar concerns with Orlando Hudson.
BP fanboy!
:P
"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling
Everyone seems to forget
that Seabass is still under contract and the Reds seem to buy that he’s still the shortstop when healthy. I do not. I didn’t like him to begin with, I’m just saying he’ll be out there next season.
Overserved and underwhelmed.
I may just be bitter but,
I think the Reds are going to get worse every year for the rest of our lives. There I said it.
by jacob brumfield on Sep 12, 2008 2:18 PM EDT reply actions
At least the Reds are aware of position changes.
"Yes, and it's so important in this sport that the athletes be able to train in the same location." -Cynthia Potter, NBC Synchronized Diving Analyst
by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Sep 12, 2008 2:21 PM EDT reply actions
Man, those commenters on Fay's blog are awful.
“SHOW HIM THE DOOR!”
"Yes, and it's so important in this sport that the athletes be able to train in the same location." -Cynthia Potter, NBC Synchronized Diving Analyst
by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Sep 12, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
They're all just Fay in cyber-disguise
Overserved and underwhelmed.
by Pops Daniels on Sep 12, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
"The guy has been here for 6 seasons and never gotten any better in the field."
6 = 3.5
The Large Hadron Collider has destroyed math.
"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling
Obligatory
http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/
Our problem this year has been offense and defense. -- MixFMKyle
I disagree.
http://www.cyriak.co.uk/lhc/lhc-webcams.html
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Sep 12, 2008 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
And I will be subscribing to that site's RSS feed
like I did with this one.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Sep 12, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
"Hadron. Apply directly to the forehad."
by Brendanukkah on Sep 12, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
"Hadron. Apply directly to the forehead."
...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield
Okay, so I tried
But couldn’t quite reach.
Our problem this year has been offense and defense. -- MixFMKyle
What if I talk dirty to you?
Overserved and underwhelmed.
by Pops Daniels on Sep 13, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and on topic
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again – If EdE has more HR than errors at the end of the year, I’m okay with that.
Our problem this year has been offense and defense. -- MixFMKyle
(I didn't think it would be this close, obviously)
Our problem this year has been offense and defense. -- MixFMKyle
How long does it take a veteran GM to learn about his team?
I love this quote from your link 3F3F regarding Walt’s take on moving players to other positions – “It’s too early in the evaluation period to say right now,” Jocketty said. “But it gives us some added flexibility.”
OH golly Uncle Walt I didn’t mean to rush you…here let me pull the blanky up under your chin and move the walker way from the recliner….
Christ on a hubcap.
You can tell your uncle stuff that you could not tell your dad. That is kind of the role of an uncle. I feel very much like a father sometimes but sometimes I feel like a teammate.
Dusty Baker
by Madville on Sep 13, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
on the topic of roster moves
what are we going to do with Cordero? spending 38 mil or so over the next 3 years on a closer seems to be incredibly wasteful (not that it wasnt when we signed him, but it is even more so now).
is he tradeable? it seems like the Mets, Tigers, Cardinals, Indians and some other teams will be searching for a closer next year and they cant all get K-Rod or Fuentes. i know he has a no-trade clause, but he would definitely waive it to go to a contender, right? i mean, he would be stupid not to.
as far as compensation, i dont care if its a strict salary dump. and that couldnt be too hard to do. i mean, he is still a top tier closer, even if he spent the past year floundering uselessly. we should probably get a decent prospect for him as well, but just dodging the bullet would be enough for me. there are a number of things Walt needs to address this winter, but for me this is a top priority.
"for integrity of races and the game" - Dusty Baker
by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 12, 2008 4:29 PM EDT reply actions
Ellis offense
should be pretty solid at GABP.
Hardtimes as a stat Props which uses ratios like fly/ground and percentages like line drive% to try to predict an OPS hopefully factoring out some of the luck factor.
When applied to M. Ellis is OPS is adjusted to .798 08/ .768 07/ .761 06 and .801 05- the stat does a nice job reducing the fluctuation in Mark’s performance.
Also when you consider a huge park effect coming from Oakland to Cincinnati- I dont think it is unreasonable to project Ellis around 800 OPS +/- 25.
His defense is stellar and consistent by any measure. Ellis has been the best defensive 2nd basemen in the past 5 years.
Age is the big concern- but keeping contract length to 3 years should solve that problem.
But this would be a big step in resolving a big issue with the Reds. The next step would obviously be to move EE from 3rd base.
Have Gonzo and Kep cover 3rd base/ Phillips SS/ Ellis 2nd base and I do believe the Reds could be in for a TB jump in their defense. As long as Baker curbs is nature to abuse starting pitchers.
Dusty can't help himself...he's Pitcherphile...just can't stop abusing young Starting Pitchers
You can tell your uncle stuff that you could not tell your dad. That is kind of the role of an uncle. I feel very much like a father sometimes but sometimes I feel like a teammate.
Dusty Baker
Go for Ellis and hope Gonzo comes back well
but Dusty won’t let BP move to 2b. so unless they trade BP, he’ll stay at 2B
You can tell your uncle stuff that you could not tell your dad. That is kind of the role of an uncle. I feel very much like a father sometimes but sometimes I feel like a teammate.
Dusty Baker
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