Dreaming of 2009
by Madville on Aug 8, 2008 10:55 AM EDT
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Stick a fork in them they are Dunn. The disappointment caused by injuries to key players and the incompetence of Dusty Baker is shared by all RRs everywhere. Would it have been a different season if Freel and Hopper hadn’t been hurt, if Jerry Jr. wasn’t a on and off the DL and if Keppinger hadn’t been hurt at a time when he was hitting pretty well? Who knows? Probably a little better…but the truth is that Dusty Baker has been extraordinarily awful as a manager, witness all the stupid decisions he’s made. Aaron Harang’s ‘injury’ is most likely Dusty based. However, that being said, this team is just not very good. When your best average on the daily starting team is Votto’s .281 and you’re forced to play Corey Patterson because there is no other outfielder available to play CF. When the leaders of almost all of the offense categories are 2 players, BP and Dunn and the leader in most of the pitching categories is 1 pitcher, Volquez, then it becomes apparent that this team is not getting enough from all of its everyday players and has an absolutely abysmal bench’ The bullpen has been acceptable, but like last year overworked. Only Volquez and to a lesser degree Arroyo (and to a lesser degree yet Cueto) go to the mound with a strong chance of winning (Recently Volquez is faltering). So what’s new, we all know this right? I think that the Reds must make some changes in the offensive makeup of the team. The pitching is not great but there is hope on the horizon – Harang bouncing back, Arroyo remaining consistent, Voltron and Jonny C have a year under their belts. Homer is the only unkown – he’s 50/50 in my estimation as to whether he’s going to get it together. The Red’s must part ways with Fogg, Affeldt and Weathers. The offense must be improved significantly. Dunn must be signed. Period. The bench players must be upgraded. Goodbye to Patterson, Valentin, Andy Phillips, Freel, Cabrera and either Keppinger or Hairston.
Jocketty needs to be finding a strong everyday CF, a shortstop that can field and hit (not one or the other, maybe Gonzo will return from the dead (doubtful) and a good hitting catcher (I’d be happy with Ross, but his rep is not great for calling a game). The 2009 Reds other challenge is fixing the bench. There is NO pop off this year’s bench. We must have on our bench, an acceptable RH hitter who also play outfield or 1st base. We only need one utility guy (I prefer Kepp he doesn’t get hurt all the time like Freel and Jerry Jr.) . Last but not least, we need a fifth starter (could be Homer?). We also desperately need a manger. We need one who utilizes the right information, who can run a tight, strategically well thought out game and one who doesn’t complain “This isn’t my and Walt’s team’ –this is Wayne Krivsky’s team”. What a tool. The chances of this happening could be better than we think as the Reds flail their way down to being 17 games out and in last place this has got piss Bob off royally.
So what do you think should be done, how and with which players?
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Good post, Mads
I pretty much agree with everything you have to say, except I’d be up for keeping Affeldt for another year. He’s been an innings-eating machine this season, and has been solid. And he’s not washed up like Weathers, so I think he can still contribute to the team next year.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
I don't normally get to watch the games
I just follow the numbers on GameDay typically. So to watch the three games against the Nationals was really eye-opening. It made me feel that defense was our biggest problem. It’s not even so much dropping the balls as it is lack of range. Keppinger is like a statue at SS. Bruce takes some really bad routes on balls. Dunn is what he is. The Nationals had just called up an entirely new infield, but they were all over the place making plays. Any ground ball in the infield was likely to be turned into a Reds out, whereas so many of the grounders the Nats hit trickled through to the outfield to prolong an inning.
Our pitching and hitting are no great shakes either, and there’s a whole lot of baserunning errors. It just seems like a very poorly coached team. I wonder to what extent actual coaching goes on at the major league level on any team, but this team needs more of it. If they were playing smart, good baseball and getting beat by better players, I could accept that. But they play bad baseball. It’s really tough to watch.
Biggest things we need:
A shortstop. This is a little unfair because there’s been injuries to so many players. I’d have to think that next year Alex Gonzalez is still the favorite to start the season. If he can play average defense and hit a little like he did in 2007, that’ll be a major step. But the position on the team this year has been terrible. I had long considered switching BP to shortstop to be a bad move, but when he’s clearly head and shoulders above any other option, why wouldn’t you try it?
A catcher upgrade. We have three catchers. The best of them is below average. We need a good catcher and can keep one of the three we have now as a backup. Why wait three more weeks til September to see what Ryan Hanigan can do?
Bench strength. Injuries have hurt us across the board. Trades have depleted our outfield. Our depth is just horrendous. You have either Corey Patterson or Jolbert Cabrera starting every day, and the other is the primary option off the bench. You have two catchers on the bench at any given time, and neither of them are good at hitting (or catching, really). You have Andy Phillips who apparently can’t hit well if he’s not batting regularly, but doesn’t have a position where he can play regularly.
There’s good players, but this is a bad team. One by one, I see people posting less and less on the site as they run out of enthusiasm for the season, and I can’t blame any of them. The summer doldrums are here, and each loss is hitting like a hammer blow. If Jocketty wants to remake the team, he’s welcome to start any time now.
What hurts the most
I felt at the end of last season, rightly or wrongly, that the Reds were heading in the right direction—that this season would show a marked improvement for the team.
But now I feel, rightly or wrongly, that the team is getting worse. If Dunn walks at the end of the year, it will be hard for the Reds offense to score enough runs to stay competitive, no matter the defensive upgrade they get in LF.
By changing personnel, the defense might improve and Jocko might find us a few more on base guys, but the hacking, the playing small ball with a 5 run deficits, and the silliness on the base paths is from up top. As is having unshakable faith in players who either suck at hitting or suck at the position they’re asked to play.
And that doesn’t look like it will change.
Kentuck Arts Festival: October 18th.
Details at Sinful Savage Tigers on MySpace.
by Man Mountain on Aug 8, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed on all points
I also want to make clear that by saying the defense needs to improve, I don’t advocate getting rid of Dunn. I want him here for as long as he’s willing to stay here.
by Brendanukkah on Aug 8, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Bruce in right and a good defensive CF would improve the outfield defense enough to keep Dunn
The Red Sox did alright with Manny in LF, though Dunn’s bat is no where near Manny’s.
All I’ve ever done was be Juan Pierre," he said. "I don’t know why, for some reason, they’re just sticking it to me this year."
I could actually get behind the idea of Coco Crisp in center
by Brendanukkah on Aug 8, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW
Chris Dial has Crisp as the worst centerfielder in the AL this year. Much Crisp discussion follows, but other ratings from The Fielding Bible and The Hardball Times suggest Crisp peaked defensively and is at best average now.
Dunn is the main man. I can only hope that he steps up and takes over this team like a good quarterback can.
And yessir – Defense and pitching do win games.
You can tell your uncle stuff that you could not tell your dad. That is kind of the role of an uncle. I feel very much like a father sometimes but sometimes I feel like a teammate.
Dusty Baker
I didn't think you were targeting Dunn
I do think that getting an excellent defensive left fielder would help the team, especially if EdE and Kepp are still on the left side of the infield, but if that means losing Dunn’s bat, I’m just not sure how they make up the offense.
If the Reds are serious about up the middle defense, they should really be pushing Stubbs hard. Have him lock down center and just hope to god he can learn to hit in the majors. But he’s a Krivsky guy, so…
Kentuck Arts Festival: October 18th.
Details at Sinful Savage Tigers on MySpace.
by Man Mountain on Aug 8, 2008 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
defense
Krivsky used to say that defense was the fastest way to improve a bad team. Dunno about the fastest, but it’s probably the cheapest. Even a Janish-type guy to put in as a LIDR would probably help. There’s no one on the team now who has a glove good enough for SS.
I suspect defense is underrated. Nobody agrees on defensive stats. And even if they did, how do you take into account the outfielder who lets an easy fly drop in, thereby sending the game into extra innings and depleting the pen for the rest of the week?
I did see an analysis once (wish I could find it again) that looked at the factors that improve your chances of winning in the post-season. They found only three: power pitching, a lights-out closer, and defense.
I guess it’s true: defense wins championships.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Well, if outs really are the most important thing in the game
And not making them increases your chance of winning, then it stands to reason that getting the other team to make more outs increases their chance of losing.
Yeah, but...
...you can’t win if you don’t score.
The analysis suggested that the reason defense wins championships is that it’s less vulnerable to the vagaries of chance.
In the long regular season, a team with good hitters can prevail, even if they have sucky defense. (See Yankees, New York.) Sure, the hitters go into slumps sometimes, but it evens out over the season.
In the short post-season, there’s no time for it to even out. If the hitters are slumping, the team is screwed. Slumping on defense isn’t as likely.
That’s also why power pitching is better than finesse pitching. Less chance of a bad night. (See Arroyo, Bronson.) Power pitchers are less likely to have those bad games where they just can’t get the ball over the plate (or get the call from the umpire).
Which isn’t to say it’s impossible to win the World Series with finesse pitchers or mediocre defense. Just that you’re more likely to win if you have power pitching and good defense. (While you’re not more likely to win it if you have a slugging lineup. See Yankees, New York.)
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
That was from Baseball Between the Numbers
Of all the statistics in our study, the one with the highest correlation to postseason success is opponents’ batting average. Certainly, preventing hits is very important in the playoffs—when you’re matched up against good offensive clubs, it’s vital to stop them from stringing together hits and starting rallies. But we also need to think about how a team can go about preventing hits. The best ways to prevent hits are: (1) to strike the batter out, so that he doesn’t put the ball into play in the first place and (2) to catch the ball when it is put into play.
Agreed that defense is something we need to take a hard look at this winter, particularly CF and SS.
by ken on Aug 9, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
also
Baseball Prospectus aggregates this in what they call “Secret Sauce.” The three factors are measured by their proprietary FRAA-Fielding Runs Above Average (defense), EqK9-Equivalent K/9IP (power pitching) and WXRL—Win Expectancy over Replacement Level pitcher for closers.
For subscribers here’s the introductory article
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5541
This free article looks at the best Secret Sauce playoff teams since 1969. Your 1990 Reds are #2!
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6871
I don't know why they need to part ways with Affeldt
I mean the guy has been solid. Any team that has a guy like Affeldt as the 10th or 11th pitcher on the staff is in pretty good shape as far as the bullpen is concerned.
Thinking of 2009 why did the Reds take away Bailey’s curveball? Why? He had a pretty good curveball. Are they trying to make him fail?
The Dusty Path to the World Series!*
*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.
Affeldt is only signed through this year
and after the solid performance he’s had so far i’d guess he’s in line for a raise. im guessing he’ll get 3 years and 10 mil and i dont want to spend that on a middle reliever when we have guys like Pelland and Herrera and Roenicke waiting for their shot. i like Affeldt, i really do, but he’s just not worth a big contract for this team.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 8, 2008 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
i'm not saying they should spend a lot of money on him
and you are probably right that he would cost too much. But I dont’ think the Reds should part ways with him just because. I did advocate trading him if they could get the right price.
The Dusty Path to the World Series!*
*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.
by justin007000 on Aug 8, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
he should be worth at least a pick if we let him walk
that’s probably better than anything offered at the deadline
by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 8, 2008 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Intersting that Slyde posted the non-accountability comment from Dusty at the same time I am looking at the production of this team
I. in case you don’t know!, am a big proponent of: at a good to great manager can quantifiably improve a team’s record. But a bad manager just sucks the life out of that very same team. I really wouldn’t put it past Castellini to dump Dusty if this team continues to lose and lose and lose. I never have been a fan of LaRussa but Walt and Bob love him and Tony does get the job done. Dave Duncan is a great pitching coach…HHHMMMM
You can tell your uncle stuff that you could not tell your dad. That is kind of the role of an uncle. I feel very much like a father sometimes but sometimes I feel like a teammate.
Dusty Baker
If you're offering Dave Duncan, I take him in a heartbeat
Tony falls under the Royce Clayton Memorial “Wait, I Have to Root For This Guy Now?” category.
by Brendanukkah on Aug 8, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
There are SO many ways this team could go
why am I always assuming they will pick the wrong one?
If you really want to move BP to short, then handle it the same way that Griff’s move to RF was handled…let him finish the season at 2b, and approach him after the last game of the season with your hat in your hand and get his thoughts on it.
I have no faith that Gonzo will come back to anything approximating his numbers prior to joining the Reds.
They might also want to look at flipping either EdE or Votto into the OF if they make the expected move of letting Dunn walk. I personally want Dunn signed because it makes the most sense, but that is precisely why they will not sign him.
See who is on the free agent or trade market in the offseason, target a few key players and make a bigtime run at them. See where it gets you.
Oh yeah, and if Dusty really said that, show him the door, too.
"I'd walk through hell in a gasoline suit to play baseball" - Pete Rose
i doubt PHillips would have any qualms
moving from second base to shortstop is more of a promotion (for lack of a better term) moving from center field to right field is a demotion.
The Dusty Path to the World Series!*
*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.
Would we be willing
to accept a “bought” run at a championship. Where veggie boy and Jocko go out and spend an assload of money on free agents and maybe some blockbuster trade(s) to run at 1 championship allways knowing that there will be a fire sale at season’s end.
I don’t think that would happen…..but, 82 wins seems so important this year. Why would the scenario above be out of the ????.
I think the ride would be fun but utimately disappointing,
I'm the only winner on this team. The rest of 'em, they're losers. Either by choice, or by birth.
by Willie Mays Hayes on Aug 8, 2008 1:50 PM EDT reply actions
Go the Marlins way?
I’d do it. I really like building from within, and winning with your homegrown guys, but I also like winning, period. With as many down years as we’ve had, and as many times as we’ve blown up a team, I’d certainly add one more if that meant a title was in the offing.
And isn't as if the Marlins
have as uncompetitive as the Reds over the period that they’ve been having their so-called “fire sales.” They’ve ended up getting good players back a lot of the time.
Kentuck Arts Festival: October 18th.
Details at Sinful Savage Tigers on MySpace.
The Marlins approach is turning out to be THE APPROACH that works if you ain't got a boat load of $$$$
You can tell your uncle stuff that you could not tell your dad. That is kind of the role of an uncle. I feel very much like a father sometimes but sometimes I feel like a teammate.
Dusty Baker
Betcha
Brandon Phillips is traded this offseason.
my Reds' To Do:
1. Fire Dusty
2. Hire Larkin(not necessarily as manager, but eh it may work)
3. Move Phillips to SS
4. Make a strong Free Agent signing (Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, take a shot at C.C.)
5. Resign Dunn
6. Dump Bako and, Valentine. Bring up Hanigan to share time with Ross. Dump Ross when Mesoraco is ready.
7. Infect Patterson with the plague.
8. Gauge interest of FAs Trevor Hoffman, or Todd Jones as possible set up men(replace Weathers)
9. Censor all comments made by Castellini that involve the words ‘win’ and ‘now’, allow him to open his pocketbook but give him no say on where the money goes.
10. Send an olive branch to Krivsky(Castellini on his knees weeping should work), offer him his job back, give him 30 assistants, two new sweaters, and a premium fruit basket.
11. Give Walt an office in the basement with Starting Lineup figures to play with and a gimic cell phone from verizons display case.
12. Hire Chris Sabo to kick every fan in the nads who believes ‘Adam Dunn sucks because he does not hustle’.
13. Hire Todd Benzinger to roam the stands at GABP offering free chili dogs to anyone who correctly identifies him.
14. Sign Milton Bradley, and give him free reign on the media (possibly supply weapons).
15. Finally, convince Volquez to pitch every day.
I'm with you 100% on Larkin
that’s a damn good idea. he needs to be back with the reds in some capacity
Politickin' in God's Country
Dusty is perfect for 15.
The Dusty Path to the World Series!*
*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.
But
I am a little timid about fitting inside of a catcher’s bat. Or, do you mean that the catcher’s bat should have a bad attitude or perverse sense of humor? What are you aiming at Mads?
Overserved and underwhelmed.
I mean I'd like our new catcher to be
insightful, humour, full of irreverent images of what it takes to hit the fuckin’ ball out of the park. Kinda like you do when you post on RR.
You can tell your uncle stuff that you could not tell your dad. That is kind of the role of an uncle. I feel very much like a father sometimes but sometimes I feel like a teammate.
Dusty Baker
I would like to add Coco Cordera to the 'Goodbye List"
He stinks.
You can tell your uncle stuff that you could not tell your dad. That is kind of the role of an uncle. I feel very much like a father sometimes but sometimes I feel like a teammate.
Dusty Baker
have you been drinking?
The Dusty Path to the World Series!*
*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.
Not a drop...
Coco is a very expensive combination of David Weathers and Danny Graves.For the amount of money he’s getting he’s blown too many saves or couldn’t keep the game tied like last night. He ain’t worth the dough.
You can tell your uncle stuff that you could not tell your dad. That is kind of the role of an uncle. I feel very much like a father sometimes but sometimes I feel like a teammate.
Dusty Baker
so the fire dusty movement has begun
where is the “managers don’t matter” crowd?
last time i checked, dusty didn’t have any at bats. last time i checked, we had two catchers that couldn’t hit, a shortstop with zero range, no bench, a bunch of rookies or almost rookies pitching, and until last week, two outfielders who couldn’t field to save their lives. and that is dusty’s fault?
corey patterson IS dusty’s fault. that is true. but who else could be doing a better job with these clowns? not even sparky.
it’s time to bring up some young ones. bring up dickerson, see what he can do. can’t be worse than what we’re fielding now. we only have three weeks until sept. call ups, so i guess we’ll have to put up with this pathetic team until then. might as well not waste our breaths complaining. in three weeks, though, it will be nice to see some of our prospects.
the managers don't matter crowd
I was going to chime in on Madville’s assertion that a great manager can quantifiably improve a team’s record. How do you prove that? A lot of circular reasoning seems involved which is why everyone thought Dusty Baker was a great manager in San Francisco.
And if we’re dividing into movements I was firmly in the we’re-screwed-form-the-moment-we-hired-Dusty crowd.
This deserves a longer response
But here’s my crack at it. To varying degrees a manager affects or controls who plays when, how the players perform, and the team’s overall attitude. Patterson (and maybe Ross) aside I don’t think he’s done a bad job on the first count in the macro sense. Encarnacion, Votto, and Bruce have all gotten the playing time they deserve. On the pitching side he resisted starting Fogg or Affeldt over Cueto and Edinson, although ST made that a no-brainer. But from an individual game perspective he makes plenty of mistakes – misunderstanding platoon splits, not using the optimal batting order, substituting for defensive reasons too often, and questionable bullpen management (the SD game being the prime example), among others.
I’m not sure how much to credit or dock a manager when it comes to player performance. It was suggested that Dusty handles older players well, maybe because guys like Bonds and Alou played well for him. That certainly didn’t rub off on Griffey. But again, I have a hard time faulting Dusty for that. I do think he’s affected certain elements of player performance, like the team’s hitting approach and baserunning philosophy. I feel like we’ve seen a lot more hacking early in the count this year and some poor baserunning (pick-offs, botched hit-and-runs, etc), and I hang that on Dusty to some degree.
The leader of men stuff obviously can’t be quantified, which isn’t to say that it doesn’t matter. We’re not in the clubhouse so it’s hard to say how well things are going in this department. But I’d be pissed at my boss if he blamed our collective performance on the fact that he didn’t hire most of us.
Run Johnny, Run
Dusty is encouraging his rotation to run – a lot.
Baker encourages them to run—and run a lot. He’s not talking about running on a treadmill or, as he says, on that “artificial stuff” like a StairClimber.“I don’t say that that’s not good, especially if you can’t take the pounding,” Baker says of treadmills and their fitness cousins. “But there’s no substitute for running.”
Strong legs lead to strong arms, Baker says. And the legs can only get strong through running—run, run, run, run and run, he says.
It’s part of the Dodger Way:
He hopes running will do for Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey what it did for his Dodgers teammates, Don Sutton, Tommy John and Rick Sutcliffe, not to mention Jenkins.“These cats would leave out before [batting practice] running up in the hills around Dodger Stadium, and they wouldn’t come back until the end of BP,” Baker says.
I’m a little suspicious about Sutcliffe doing all that running. But in general I think this is a good idea, though I wonder if he implemented this in Chicago.
Harang rides a mountain bike
because he says running tears up his knees.
The Dusty Path to the World Series!*
*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.
by justin007000 on Aug 11, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Who says negativity is dead?
If you want to look at it that way, sure, no one could win with these ‘clowns’.
But we also had the best first half pitcher in the league, several ‘a’ pitching prospects, the number one pre-season prospect in all of baseball come up, a pitcher who has been dominant for the last three years, Dunn, who has led in both home runs and walks during the season, and brandon phillips who put up 30-30 last years. “Who could lose so many games with these guys?”
Not that you don’t make serious points about roster construction – all outside of Dusty’s control. But there are many, many, many people who could win more games with our team.
Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.
Dusty is responsible for Corey Patterson
Many years from now, I hope that it is carved on Dusty’s tombstone.
“Here Lies John B. ‘Dusty’ Baker.
Devoted father, loving husband, pheasant enthusiast.
He was responsible for Corey Patterson.
‘And all the leaves on the trees are falling
To the sound of the breezes that blow
And Im trying to please to the calling
Of your heart-strings that play soft and low.’”
The world must never forget.
by Brendanukkah on Aug 11, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I think "pheasant enthusiast" belongs before "loving husband".
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
Could we slap the "phancybands" moniker on him too?
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Aug 11, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I've been a proponent of Managers DO Matter
Hence: Get a new one, this one sucks
You can tell your uncle stuff that you could not tell your dad. That is kind of the role of an uncle. I feel very much like a father sometimes but sometimes I feel like a teammate.
Dusty Baker
I am now not even DREAMING about 2009
With Dunn gone, Aaron Harang not able to pitch, Homer fucked, Hobbs (still gone)
No one to play short. One decent outfielder, And a less than steller BP and absolutely no bench, eben a decent manager can’t win with that shit, let alone Dusty Fucking Baker.
Where is my gun?
Goodbye big fella..I’m gonna miss ya!!!
You can tell your uncle stuff that you could not tell your dad. That is kind of the role of an uncle. I feel very much like a father sometimes but sometimes I feel like a teammate.
Dusty Baker
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