but I’m a sadist, so you know….

appears to be available

The only thing that pisses me off about the situation is that it guarantees another reprinting of Atlas Shrugged.

before I realized that he was a) traded to the A’s and b) has sucked epically. But I’d be for some scouring for a RH LF…I imagine Holliday would cost us too much prospects-wise. And I’m not going to root for Burrel.

I couldn’t find anyone half-assedly looking around. But Juan Castro has gotten 91 ABs in Baltimore. Remeber: it could always be worse.

Your 2009 Cincinnati Reds (with what I’d pay free agents):

C: Rod Barajas (2 yrs/$6M)
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Mark Ellis (3/$20M)
3B: Edwin Encarnacion
SS: Brandon Phillips
LF: Matt Holliday (4/$80)
CF: Rocco Baldelli (2/$6M, $4-5M in incentives)
RF: Jay Bruce

Bench:
Ryan Hanigan
Alex Gonzalez
Jerry Hairston
Chris Dickerson/Drew Stubbs
Sean Casey (1/$1M)

Starting Pitchers:

Aaron Harang
Edinson Volquez
Johnny Cueto
Bronson Arroyo
Matt Maloney/Darryl Thompson

Relievers:
Francisco Cordero
Bill Bray
Jared Burton
Josh Roenike
Will Ohman (2/$7M)
MLB minimum fodder
MLB minimum fodder

How did we get Holliday, you ask? Why, by trading Todd Frazier, Homer Bailey, and Kyle Lotzkar. Throw in Danny Dorn, Chris Dickerson or (if you get Baldelli and are convinced he’s healthy) Drew Stubbs if we have to. The Reds’ system is gaining some depth; I say use some of it to get a game-changing hitter in his prime.

Ellis/BP/AGon give you 3 players for 2 positions; Hairston can fake playing anywhere; maybe the Mayor can impart some defensive wisdom on Votto.

Ryan Freel? Trade him for either a decent prospect or payroll relief. Someone has to love his scrappiness.

As near as I can figure, that would keep the payroll around $90M plus buyouts give or take, up from $74M this year. However, if Harang straightens out, Volquez and Cueto turn into the reliable 2/3 starters we hope, and Votto/Bruce continue to improve, I’d like this team a lot. A whole lot.

(I know this may deviate from previously stated opinions. Tough.)

No chance on Holliday and with his price tag I would not want him. He wants to test the free agent waters so it will take a whole lot of money to get him here.
I have also heard people talk about making a run at CC, which we couldn’t handle the bidding war of LA and NYY among others.
I also like the idea of Baldelli on the cheap but only expect 70 games out of him for one or maybe 2 years. Even if he were willing to do this I would expect him to stay in TB on the cheap or go home to NYY or BOS before Cincy.
I like Ellis a lot but no way the Reds will move Phillips and it would make way too much sense. Also if it takes a 4 year deal give it to him. He may decline defensively but I could see him take a Grudzielanek type career path.

So basically I think this would be very realistic:

C- Hanigan and Bako. I could see us shelling out the cash for IRod, sadly.
1B- Votto
2B- Phillips
SS- Gonzalez/Hairston/Keppinger
3B- EdE
LF- Dickerson
CF- Taveras or Edmonds with Freel until Stubbs is ready. This is scary looking but I just know it is going to happen.
RF- Jay Bruce
SP- Harang Volquez Cueto Arroyo and a cheap FA or maybe a decent free agent thats over priced, exmpl: DLowe, Garland, Dempster, Moyer, Lieber, etc.
Bullpen- CL – Francisco Cordero
RP – Jared Burton
RP – Bill Bray
RP – Mike Lincoln
RP – Some mix of Carlos Fisher/Justin Lehr/Josh Roenicke/Danny Herrara/ Jon Adkins/ plus maybe resigning Affeldt and Weathers.

What I would like to see is

C- Hanigan plus trading for someone who is young with upside: One of the TEX catchers, John Jaso since they have Navarro. Maybe Jeff Mathis from LAA, since they have Conger and Napoli to fill in. Just don’t sign a FA catcher, there really aren’t any that are better than Hanigan.
1B- Votto
2B- Ellis, great for our defense and his pop will fit well in GABP. Give him the 4 years
SS- Phillips, he will embrace the move, after all he wants to be Barry Larkin.
3B- EdE, He will be fine there and provide us with a slightly improving bat and improving defense.
LF- JRivera, He will be 30 and cheaper than most with really decent upside and a solid bat. It would only take a 1 or 2 year deal with incentives. I would rather take a shot on him rather than putting Milton Bradley out there with a costly multi year deal and the risk of injury. Kick the tires on Pat the Bat, Bradley, and maybe moving Votto out here if Alonso can’t play anywhere else.
CF- CDickerson, I think he can be Coco Crisp-lite. With Stubbs coming up pretty quickly.
RF- JBruce

Bench:
Freel – I think he gets traded, after all Kenny Williams proved there are GMs dumber than Jocketty
Hairston – I’m not a huge fan but he deserve something for how he performed when he was healthy this year
Stubbs – Get him up early and let him split time with CDick. He is ready defensively and he will probably get on base at a good clip for a young guy.
J Mathis – Solid defense, there have always been questions about the bat.
Maybe bring in Wily Mo Pena or Craig Monroe for a power bat off the bench if they are very cheap. Also add a left handed bat. I always have loved me some Sean Casey.

SP
Harang- If we handle him very gently the rest of the year he will be back around his old self
Volquez- See Harang, only he will be what he is this year
Cueto – Hopefully takes the next step like Lincecum like some have compared him to
Arroyo – He is what he is and it would make him a great number 4 starter, just too bad he is way over paid.
5th starter – We have some pretty good options in our organization. Owings?, Maloney, Thompson, Masset, and so on. Don’t say Homer. We need to do to him what the Rangers did for Volquez then get him to the majors, don’t trade him.

’Pen
Cl- Cordero
Bray, Lincoln, Burton, Roenicke, Danny Ray, Resign Affeldt, Majic Man for come clean ups, and pick up some good arms on the cheap. I also wouldnt mind Juan Cruz

We should not just start trading our organizational depth until we KNOW we are a few pieces away. I like to think we are close to competing but I don’t KNOW if we are and if we start dealing off all of our depth for one player like Holliday and are unable to resign him we leave ourselves pretty screwed.

Corey
Fogg
Hobart
Bako
Coco (no chance)
Dusty Bakedbrain (no chance)
sMarty (no chance)
clownboy – please Bob please please please….
Homer Bailey (trade bait)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (love the guy but he’s way too injury prone)

Staying would be:

1B – Votto;
2B – Keppinger
SS – B.Phillip
3B – Encarnacion (his last chance to blossom)
 C – Hanigan ( plus any free agent but toothache or Bako)
LF – OPEN FOR A BANGER (or if not available keep Jerry Jr.)
CF – Chris Dickerson
RF – Jay Bruce

Bench:
Ryan Freel
Alex Gonzalez (very much a wild card)
Drew Stubbs (good glove, not much offense)
Javier Valentin (I know…but how can you not include the greatest PH in Red’s history?
1 day a week catcher (someone with good defense and a lot of MLB experience)

SP – Edison Volquez
SP – Aaron Harang
SP – Bronson Arroyo
SP – Johnny Cueto
SP – D.Thompson (This guy should blossom in 09)

CL – Francisco Cordero (needs to get his shit together)
RP – Jared Burton
RP – Jeremy Affeldt
RP – Bill Bray
RP – Mike Lincoln
RP – David Weathers (although next year may be the year his arm falls all the way off)
RP – Josh Roenicke

Batting order for the 1st game of 2009

Dickerson – Kid has shown some talent (time will tell)
Bruce – #2 position will help him to be more disciplined
BP – at the beginning (but as time goes by he should be switched with Bruce)
Votto – Maturing into a good hitter, will drive in some runs
RH BANGER – (Who i don’t know _ you’d have to give up too much for Doc Holliday)
EdE – last chance
Hannigan – see what the kid can do, don’t expect too much
Kepp – he’s been pretty steady and would be ideal for 2b

I don’t see the Reds going out and getting anything more than a fairly inexpensive FA Left fielder.Maybe a 3b and move EdE to left.

My team looks too much like this year’s, but I think that’s how it will shake out. Removing Cophat and Bako from the everyday lineup will make a big difference. The starting rotation could be very competitive as well as the BP. If the Reds don’t go FA for a BANGER then I would be in favor of keeping Hairston Jr. in LF and bat him 1st, C-Dick 2nd and move Bruce down to 6th.

Jesus…If I’m right the Reds will be dependent on great pitching, good defense and good OPB. We’ll see about power and OPS.

- Baldelli is a Krivsky move, so it will not happen
- Is Holliday worth the price?
- If Walt is going to go big, why not go real big?
- Why is everyone ruling out this guy? He’s got homies.
- Two ’09 free agents everyone is overlooking.

Well, at least the replacement players will hustle.

So what does the team look like for next year? I think I’ve got a pretty good glimpse already: THE SAME. Let’s break it down:

Current Reds
C Ryan Hanigan®
1B Joey Votto (L)
2B Brandon Phillips®
SS Alex Gonzales®/Jeff Keppinger®
3B Edwin Encarnacion
LF TBD
CF Chris Dickerson (L)
RF Jay Bruce (L)

Bench:
IF/OF Ryan Freel®
OF Norris Hopper®
IF Adam Rosales®
C Wilkin Castillo (S)

SP Edinson Volquez®
SP Aaron Harang®
SP Johnny Cueto®
SP Bronson Arroyo®
SP Micah Owings®

CL Francisco Cordero®
RP Bill Bray (L)
RP Jared Burton®
RP Homer Bailey®
RP Daryl Thompson®
RP Danny Herrera (L)

Where are the holes that Walt Jock-ER-TEE (pronunciation key by George Grande) will have to fill with his giant GM phallus? Well, there are positions to be addressed (think left field, not Cleveland Steamer), and there is the clubhouse. I often think the clubhouse talk is all garbage, but in this specific case, we have yet to eradicate the loafing, aloof poison that was Junior and his influence. That’s going to cost us extra money.

Catcher Ryan Hanigan ain’t gonna cut it, and the free agent class is limited. I say we bite the bullet here and sign Pudge Rodriguez to an overpriced, too-long, 2-year deal. This will give a great influence to Hanigan and Castillo, as well as the young Reds starting staff. He will also bring veteran leadership and a working knowledge of the Spanish language. Yeah, that does make a difference to Volquez, Cueto, Cordero, Alex Gonzales (maybe), and Edwin Encarnacion. And it’s about time the Reds get a Spanish-speaking catcher who can order chicken mole without having to explain that his mustache is NOT a shout-out to Hitler (Javy, we still love you and your giant, dumpy body.)

That still leaves us a little lefty-heavy in the lineup (Votto, Bruce, Dickerson), so a righty-hitting OF is the next step. We could even get a first baseman and stick Joey Votto in LF if the player was right. Walt will likely make a go at the too-old Jim Edmonds to play center. But Jim is too old these days to be an everyday starter at age 39. So we have to throw Edmonds into the geezer free agent bin, along with Moises Alou, Frank Thomas, and Cliff Floyd. We’ll also need to avoid "headcases", as we need veteran leadership, not spoiled, moping millionaires. So out of the picture go Manny Ramirez and Milton Bradley, which is a shame. Those two sluggers would treat pitches in Great American Ball Park like Ike Turner preferred his ladies: lightly battered.

That leaves us with a select group of two players by my measure: 1B Mark Teixeira and LF Pat Burrell. Both would kill pitching at GABP. Pat plays LF about as well as Adam Dunn…or Joey Votto. Meanwhile, Teixeira is an excellent first baseman, sporting a .996 fielding percentage in over 800 games. Votto in LF and Teixeira at 1B is an upgrade defensively.

There’s your 2009 Reds starting 8:

CF Chris Dickerson (L)
SS Jeff Keppinger®
2B Brandon Phillips®
RF Jay Bruce (L)
LF Pat Burrell®
1B Joey Votto (L)
3B Edwin Encarnacion®
C Pudge Rodriguez®

We’ll need a lefty bat for the bench to match our new star pinch-hitter, Micah Owings®, who carries a career .895 OPS. That’s a big, sexy number that reminds us of el grande burro.

Maybe that’s enough…but it seems a little light to me. But that’s a pretty cheap and easy way to get there, as Pat/Pudge or Tex/Pudge will likely combine to make about as much as Griffey/Dunn did. I wish Pudge was Mexican, so I could make a Tex/Mex joke here, but the truth is that Pat/Pudge and Tex/Pudge are funny sounding enough that no joke is necessary. I’d also like to see Arroyo & Alex Gonzales traded for a lefty starter, but I don’t see that happening.

I know a lot of you have a boner for Mark Ellis, but his OPS this year is 695. The average starting 2B in MLB since 2000 has a OPS of 770. BIG difference. Does his defense make up THAT BIG of a difference? He turns 32 next year. BP has said he doesn’t want to move to SS, and we have A-GON and Kep under contract for next year for a combined approx. $6M. Put down the bong, boys…this will not happen without a preceding trade.

How will Walt do this offseason? Well, it’s hard not to defer to the success he’s had and trust him. Then again, I trusted Ryan Freel to drive me to a strip club once, and that quickly became a total Training Day situation. So my judgment simply can’t be trusted…which is why it seldom is.

Help us, Obi-Walt Kenobi. You’re our only hope.

1ST. Alonso
2ND.Votto
SS….Phillips
3RD.Edwin
LF…..Manny (Being Manny)
CF….Bruce
RF….Holliday

That is what you call a bad defense………but screw it we have to do something to counter the offensive BS that is the DH and the AL

SP
1.C.C.
2.Volquez
3.Harang
4.Bronson
5.Cueto

RELIEF
Burton
Bray
Herrera
Maloney
Affeldt
Cordero (setup)
K-Rod (Closer)

With this lineup we still could be as good as these teams……..
Bo Sox, Yanks, Rays, Diamonbacks, White Sox, Mets, Cubs, Phillies……
(insert team serious about winning baseball games here)

to post more on my posts I will just end with this…we will not be a .500 team next year