Saber The Moment
Ok, so I am started to really getting into thinking about what is the best statistical measure of offensive ability.
I realize I had a very mistaken impression of slugging. I thought walks were included, and that slugging measured the average number of bases traveled by the batter with each plate appearance. That, of course, is not slugging at all. Slugging is the average bases traveled with each AB, only taking into account hits.
Which then brought me to why I was thinking wrongly about slugging: it seems like a better measure of offensive ability would be to measure (TB + BB)/(AB + BB) . If I am thinking correctly, this stat would give you the average number of bases a batter travels with each plate appearance on a scale of 0 to 4. Not sure if it already exists with another name, but for the sake of this post, I will call it a batter's "milage."
The challenge to this all seems to me how much to value getting on base and how much to value traveling more bases on average with each plate appearance. For example, a player that hits a home run every ten PA but gets out the other 9 would have a score of .4 on the "milage" scale. Another player, who gets 3 singles and a walk every ten PA, also has a .4 score on the same scale. Which player is better? According to OPS the first player scores .500 (.100 obp + .400 slg) and the second .733 (.400 obp + .333 slg).
Part of me thinks that what matters most is averaging more bases per plate appearance, partly because we know for a fact that the first player scored a run where the second player may or may not have. On the other hand, we know for a fact that the first player only scored one run, where the second player may have scored up to four. Similarly, we know that the first player drove in one run for sure, while the second player may not have driven in anyone. The second player, however, could have driven in up to 7 runners though (3 hits with runners on second and third, and a walk with the bases loaded).
I am actually learning a lot as I write and think about this now, and am starting to see the complexity of measuring individual stats in a team game. This was Bill James' struggle too right with the RC formula?
Speaking of James and RC, I was looking at definitions of Runs Created and not quite understanding why basic RC, (H + BB)TB/(AB +BB), is calculated the way it is, and not the way that I did "milage" above. Can someone explain that or point me towards a good simple explanation of the RC stat?
This is me diving head first into this world so please excuse the obvious ignorances to the history of a lot of these things. I probably should just read that book, what's it called? Money Ball?
I also make no claims at doing math well. I studied peace in college.
0 recs |
11 comments
Comments
Moneyball does talk about Runs Created, but isn’t at all up to date on sabrmetrics and doesn’t go into detail on them at all. A more recent formula (as well as more accurate for a team’s runs) is ‘Base Runs’. It’s meant to be calculated from the perspective of a team, not an individual, but that doesn’t stop a lot of people. (Posnanski comes to mind)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_Runs
I don’t know about how James came up with the Runs Created formula, but I believe David Smyth used a type of regression analysis. (Statistical modeling approach)
by RedStalk on Aug 22, 2008 12:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Your mileage stat.
Is very similar to OPS, really, excepting that OPS awards an extra point’s worth to each hit. In your system, BB and 1B are worth 1, 2B two, and etc. In OPS, a BB is one, a single 2, a double worth 3, etc.
Most statistical criticisms of OPS argue that OPS actually favors slugging too much – perhaps your mark would help rebalance those.
The other advantage of OPS is that we’re now familar with it – many people can intuitively feel how good an 800 OPSer is – much like the .300 line in batting average.
Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.
by andromache on Aug 22, 2008 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
more on OPS for anyone interested
The main criticism of OPS is that it takes two totals that are on different scales and adds them together thus giving undue weight to the higher figure (the slugging in almost all cases). And OBP is simply more important than slugging when it comes to offense. A lot of times statheads will talk about a player’s OPS being “on base-heavy” (good) or “slugging-heavy” (not as good). "Sure they both have an .800 OPS, but Bob Walker’s is OBP heavy while Joe Powers’ is mostly slugging.
There were attempts to promote a modified OPS that multiplied OBP by an amount before adding slugging, but these efforts have pretty much been abandoned for simplicity since most fans are familiar with the OPS scale now. OPS+ corrects this to a pretty good degree (by dividing OBP by league OBP and SLG by league SLG before combining the figures).
by Red Menace on Aug 22, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am not sure what you mean
when you say that “OPS awards an extra point’s worth to each hit.” Are you saying that hits count in both OBP and Slugging, where walks only count in OBP?
Tanzen!
by Verka Serduchka on Aug 22, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well yes, that would be the simple, obvious way to put it.
Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.
by andromache on Aug 22, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
isolated power
Another nifty stat to look at is isolated power (ISO). It’s simply slugging percentage minus batting average, so it only measures extra base hits.
.120 is average
.080 would be a singles hitter
.200 and above would be a slugger
Barry Bonds put up .400+ during his suspicious years
It’s a fancy brand-new stat that was created by a computer nerd named Branch Rickey.
by Red Menace on Aug 22, 2008 2:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think what is intuitve to me about the milage stat
is that it measures individually who gets closer, on average, to traveling all four bases, that is, scoring a run, in each plate appearance.
Tanzen!
by Verka Serduchka on Aug 22, 2008 2:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There are many new stats yet to be invented....
i would like to see something that includes batting avg w/ runners in scoreing position…something that takes into account that a walk is good, but not quite as good as a single… (ie you can score from second on a single but not a walk ) a stat that penalizes a player for grounding into a double play…
Perhaps something like total bases (including walks &hbp ) divided by outs made and with a side stat of RBIs per outs made. ( where a double play counts as two outs against the offending player)
If we could get really fancy.. i’d like to see a stat where the player gets extra points for success against good pitching vs shitty pitching ( ie a home run should count more if you hit it off of Jake Peavy than it should for hitting it off Glendon Rusch )
maybe we could call this stat CLUTCHYNESS !!
AKA redsfan68 Nobody listens to Andrew
by nlt-andrew68 on Aug 22, 2008 4:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
fangraphs
Fangraphs has something called Win Probability Added, which takes account of the particular game situation when each play is made. A HR late in the game when you are ahead by 8 runs is nearly worthless; a walk-off 2-run single is worth a lot.
by bbjones on Aug 22, 2008 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
HardBall Times
uses a Runs Created formula that incorporates park adjustments and hitting with runners in scoring position. Its also easy to sort by position/team or year.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/?view=batting&league_filter[]=2
The Park Adjustment makes a big difference for the Cincinnati players- with only Dunn and Phillips in the top 50 NL- well I guess only Phillips in the top 50.
But nice job by Brandon- gold glove 2nd basemen/ and is 4th in RC for 2nd basemen.
by davidmac84 on Aug 23, 2008 12:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Back in the '70s...
….someone came up with a similar statistical formula to your (TB + BB)/(AB + BB). It was called offensive average, I believe. Over the years, I modified it myself, measuring offense by bases (earned and debited), which is still weak in terms of accounting for situational externalities. Still, interesting post. Brings back wonderful memories of my readings of James’s Baseball Abstract back in the day.
by tonywf on Aug 24, 2008 2:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by 



















