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The Case For Edwin Encarnacion

since Adam Dunn saddled up and rode west, it seems the ire of frustrated Reds fans has fallen upon the young shoulders of Edwin Encarnacion.  he is mired in a miserable slump, hitting .185/.250/.370 over the last month.  this frustration began to boil over last night with the safety squeeze play, which mostly wasnt his fault anyway.

many solutions have been proposed for this situation.  some just want to trade him, others want to move him to LF or 1B, and still others would probably prefer to see him tossed off the bridge.  "his defense hasnt improved!"  "he isnt clutch!"  "we need a right-handed bat to anchor this lineup, and Eddie just isnt cutting it!"

2xetizo7_medium

via mlb.mlb.com

 

 

some of the allegations leveled against him are unwarranted, some are pretty well dead on.  he is still a big question mark over at the hot corner (even though that was all Bako's fault last night) and he is a pretty streaky hitter (evidenced by his .620 OPS over the last month after a few months of a .900 OPS prior). 

with a number of infield options coming through the reds minor leagues like Frazier and Fransisco and guys like Rosales and Keppinger already in the majors, Eddie could have some competition for his job if the front office sees to it.  Eddie was named by Walt Jocketty a few months ago as one of 5 "untouchables", but im not so sure that confidence will survive the season.

with the Reds in Chicago and the Cubs sitting proudly in first place, it got me thinking about what they have that we dont. 

 

T1_aramis_si_medium

via i.a.cnn.net

 

 

Aramis Ramirez is one of the top third basemen in the National League, posting better than a 125 OPS+ the past 5 seasons.  while he may not be a gold glover, he's no slouch with the leather either.  the comparison between Encarnacion and Ramirez has been made before, as both were very young and still very raw when they came up to the bigs. 

Ramirez debuted in that magic summer of '98 for the Pirates and was underwhelming as a 20 year old.  for the next three seasons, in varying amounts of playing time, Ramirez never posted an OPS over .700.  he broke out as a 23 year old in '01 with a line of .300/.350/.536 in 603 ABs.  his defense was shaky, but nevertheless the Pirates saw him as a cornerstone of the organization. 

but he could not shake that "inconsistent" label.  his next season, still only a 24 year old, he was ghost.  with an OPS+ of 72, he was a huge disappointment to a Pirates franchise embittered over his unfulfilled promise.  his defense was not improving either, leading some in the Steel City to call him a fluke. 

in '03 as a 25 year old, Ramirez played in 96 games for the Pirates with a league average OPS and below average defense before they finally gave up on him and traded him to Chicago for what amounted to be a small hill of beans.

then something happened.  in '04 everything came together for him.  he became the Aramis Ramirez he was supposed to become in Pittsburgh, the one we have all grown to hate.  that season, his age 26 season, he began a string of 5 consecutive seasons with an OPS+ over 125.  he hit more home runs, struck out less, walked more, and played a solid defense.

Edwin Encarnacion is just 25 this year.  he has been around since '05 when he was a 22 year old, but most will say he has had ample opportunity to improve upon his game.  last year he hit .289/.356/.438, and played markedly better defense after a May demotion to AAA.  it appeared that Eddie was going to be the right handed bat this team so sorely needed in the middle of the order.  but this year, his defense is still shaky, if not bad, and his batting average has dropped significantly.  he's hit a career high 22 homers this year, but he's also on pace for a career high in strikeouts, leading some to call for a trade.

the stories of these two players is very similar.  both were rushed to the majors.  both had "breakout" years followed by disappointment.  both have struggled with defense and consistent hitting.  the difference is, the Pirates gave up on Ramirez too early, and the Reds still have a choice.  we are a few years from competing, according to Bob and Walt's letter.  let's hope the Reds have the patience with Eddie that the Pirates lacked with Ramirez.  lets hope Eddie is still around in 2010 as the Reds run for the pennant, mashing home runs, striking fear into the hearts of NL Central pitchers, and drawing favorable comparisons to the Cubs anchor at the hot corner.

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I read the heading and clicked on the link for one reason only . . .

to post a picture of Aramis Ramirez. Thank you Mr. Scrabbles for saving me the trouble. Keep up the good work. You are rec’d sir.

by Brian B on Aug 20, 2008 11:07 PM EDT   0 recs

It would be nice if Edwin mirrored Ramirez

but I tend to doubt it. I would think Aramis has a pretty unusual career progression.
I break out year at 22 and then a big fall back year as a 23 year old. He had a couple Edwin type years at 24 and 25 and then sustained excellence from 26 to present(Plus .900 OPS with top tier defense).
Edwin by contrast has been extremely consistent. Average to slightly below average offensive for his position(.800-.820 OPS) and by most accounts horrible defensive play.
When you adjust for park effect and he really hasnt had significant injuries in his career- I would think what you are seeing now from Edwin is what he is which isnt that valuable.
Personally I think Keppinger has more upside than Edwin even though Jeff is 3 years older.
Jeff was 840 OPS 2007/ 820 preinjury this year. Plus his big weakness is range which would be minimized by moving to 3rd base. I think you can project him as .820-.850 OPS with average to above average play at 3rd base. I just dont see the same type of projection for Edwin. Maybe the best move is to give both Jeff and Edwin one more year- I highly doubt this Reds team is going to be contending next year- and then see if one or both is in the long term plan for 2010 and beyond.

by davidmac84 on Aug 20, 2008 11:33 PM EDT   0 recs

Edwin's 2008:

He already has more walks than he’s ever had in a single season.

He already has more home runs than he’s ever had in a single season.

He’s on pace to have a higher slugging percentage than he’s ever had in a single season.

And yes, it could be argued that comparing these statistics is sabermetric folly. After all, 2008 will have been only his third full season in Major League Baseball.

"Being a human cannonball is not just a job, Pee Wee. It's a career."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Aug 21, 2008 12:10 AM EDT   0 recs

Edwin HR/BB rate up- Batt Ave down

add it all up and he still hasnt matched his first full season starting.
And its hard to say 3 full seasons starting is a small sample size.
Interesting, the player most similar to Edwin according to Baseball Reference was the former Red Jorge Cantu which is a more realistic comparision than Aramis Ramirez.
And also brings back another horrifying decision- keeping Hatteberg instead of Cantu at the end of last year.
I’m just not very optimistic that Edwin will break through to the next level. But also I think is trade value is withering away this year. The conservative move would be to give him another year and hope he moves beyond a replacement value player. But at this point- I would look to move Edwin in the off-season. If you can trade Griffey to a contender at an age when he has no defensive or offensive value anything is possible.

by davidmac84 on Aug 21, 2008 1:05 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

regardless of whether or not Edwin is really improving (i think he is)

the general perception is that he isnt improving enough, or that he never will. im still clinging to Walt’s “untouchables” list as a source of hope.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 21, 2008 10:11 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

There's a lot of ways he could go

At the plate, his career trajectory could look like Eric Chavez, it could look more like Adrian Beltre, or perhaps Fernando Tatis, to name three other recent third basemen with some power who came up to the majors at a relatively early age.

Beltre with worse defense and better offense, especially in the getting on base department, is about what I would be willing to expect from Encarnacion without getting my hopes up. How acceptable is that?

by LooseCannon on Aug 21, 2008 12:40 AM EDT   0 recs

Cantu/ former Red Willie Greene

are the reasonable projections. Beltre at 25 was 2nd in MVP voting racking up a 1000 OPS hitting in Chavez Ravine. And then dropped off the face of the earth after signing a big contract with Seattle.
Tatis was .950 at 24 and .860 at 25 before ominiously declining at age 26.
Chavez is a special case having his career sidetracked by injury. Before injury he was a gold glove 3rd basemen playing in a horrid hitters park.
I dont think giving Edwin one more year would be a horrible decision- but I wouldnt mind seeing the Reds trade him either. Ultimately the organization has to decide if he can break out of this plateu and if he ever can be a competent defensive 3rd basemen.
I really dont consider Edwin young anymore not to be concerned by his lack of improvement.
 I dont see the offense to justify moving Edwin to 1st base or a Corner OF slot.
And he is at the service level where the Reds will have to start paying him decent money. And the one cardinal sin of mid-market teams is overpaying for average talent.

And then the Reds have to pray to the Gods Votto starts improving.
Its probable not true- but the Reds seem to have an inordinate number of position players that never have improved from their 1st couple years in the majors.

by davidmac84 on Aug 21, 2008 1:20 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

who on the current team is better offensively than Edwin?

I’m more a hello man and a welcome man than a good-bye man. And to me Adam Dunn was more a person than a player.

by Slyde on Aug 21, 2008 9:26 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I would take a healthy Keppinger

over Edwin. And also this makes the point.
Losing organizations keep players like Edwin because hes one of our best and end overpaying for mediocre at best performance.
When you look at total performance- fielding Edwin is rated last by Hardball times Revised Zone rating by an alarming margin. Jorge Cantu never known for his glove is at .668/ Edwin is at .631.
Keppinger is the worse defensive Shortstop by the same rating. But in partime play at 3rd the last 3 years rated . 778/.740 and .700 which would put in the top 5 of defensive 3rd basemen.
If you rank the 3rd basemen by OPS- Edwin comes in 6th in the NL at .813. But if you adjust for park effect Cantu(.807) and Reynolds(.808) would jump ahead of Edwin. And even Kouzmanoff is hitting .850 away from SD. Being charitibal to Edwin I would rank him 8th best in offensive and dead last in defense.
So the real question is can Edwin jump his performance next year when he has been an extremely consistent player for the Reds without any significant injuries. And if he can not improve- he is not worth keeping.
I definitely think the Reds should at least explore moving Edwin this offseason. If they keep him I would keep him at 3rd base- because his offensive performance doesnt warrant a move to LF or 1st Base.

by davidmac84 on Aug 21, 2008 10:44 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I would take a healthy Keppinger

I’m a Kepp-fan, but his career OPS+ is 91 and he’s 28. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt that his injury is what has killed his season so far, but even before he got hurt his OPS was .819 in only 163 PAs. I’m not sure why you’d be willing to put a guy who’s career 162 game average is 27 doubles and 10 HRs at a power position like 3B, but you don’t think Edwin’s bat (36 doubles/23 HR avg) measures up to others at 3B.

Losing organizations keep players like Edwin because hes one of our best and end overpaying for mediocre at best performance.

Well, if he really is average, then the Reds will likely still get three cheap years out of him. Heck, BP is only making $14.75m over his arb years. Do you think Edwin will make that much given the amount of press the two players receive? Do you think Edwin would be overpaid if he made $10-12m over the next 3 years?

And losing teams fail because they don’t build complete teams. My point in asking the question about who is better offensively is that too many people take the path of “Player X can hit, but he’s not good enough to carry the team so he should be dumped.” If Edwin produces more runs on offense than anybody else in the lineup, and the lineup still sucks, the solution is not to dump him. The solution is to find better players to put around him. He’s not worthy of being the central player in a lineup, but he’s perfect for the supporting piece role. This sudden push to dump him next baffles me.

When you look at total performance- fielding Edwin is rated last by Hardball times Revised Zone

You don’t have to make this argument to me. I’ve been advocating a position change for Edwin for the last two months.

Being charitibal to Edwin I would rank him 8th best in offensive and dead last in defense.

That’s fine. But who do you replace him with? Keppinger has played the equivalent of 28 games at 3B in the majors in his career. I agree that he’s probably better defensively but I would not go so far as to say that he’d be top 5 defensively. Frankly, we know very little about his abilities at 3B based upon 28 games spread over 3 seasons. And offensively, what does he do better than Edwin besides hit more singles and ground into more double plays?

So the real question is can Edwin jump his performance next year when he has been an extremely consistent player for the Reds without any significant injuries. And if he can not improve- he is not worth keeping.

I wouldn’t call him extremely consistent. This season his walk-rate increased dramatically as have his walks per strikeout. His power has taken a big leap forward (his IsoP is .229 compared to a previous high of .197). His batting average is down in part to a low BABIP, but that low BABIP is due in part to his low line drive rate. This is the only thing that concerns me right now about his performance at the plate. He’s seen too many line drives replaced by infield popups. He definitely needs to reverse that trend. In general though I would say that this season is definitely a step up over last year.

If they keep him I would keep him at 3rd base- because his offensive performance doesnt warrant a move to LF or 1st Base.

I think this is a bad statement. If they keep him, then it doesn’t matter where he plays because his offense will be in the lineup regardless. If they keep him, they should put him wherever he can perform the best defensively. Why sacrifice 20+ runs a season on defense just because his offense doesn’t match up to another position? What if they put him in LF and his defense is average. Doesn’t it make sense to get the most out of the players that you put into your lineup?

I’m more a hello man and a welcome man than a good-bye man. And to me Adam Dunn was more a person than a player.

by Slyde on Aug 21, 2008 11:28 AM EDT to parent up   1 recs

You misunderstand some basic concepts

Defensive Spectrum.
Of course it matters greatly that Edwin cannot play 3rd base. As you move down the defensive sprectrum from 3rd Base to Left Field- more players can play LF so the average bench player offensive level is higher. The only 3rd basemen worse than Edwin in the last 2 years has been Ryan Braun whom was over 1000 OPS and over 900 this year.
But when you are squarely at 800 OPS in a hitter bias park that doesnt warrant a move down the defensive spectrum.
Replacement Value.
His Edwin worth 10-12 million over 3 years – are you insane. At the very most the Reds should try him for one year in Left Field. Maybe the position change will ignite his dormant offense but committing to more than one year right now for Edwin would be like signing Mike Stanton for a couple million. Isnt that the definition of a losing organization.
To put numbers around Edwin’s value- his Win Shares over Bench Player is at 1. Which using Harball Times calculator puts his value @ 600,000. That may be surprising but just in one local example the Reds let go Jorge Cantu whom signed for 500k and is right now a better 3rd basemen than Edwin.
The Reds have 3 valuable position players: Phillips for performance right now and Votto and Bruce for their potential based on age/ minor league track record.
I dont think it would be a horrible decision to move Edwin for a one year trial at LF. It would be a conservative move. But it doesnt change the fact that Edwin right now is a the slightest margin over replacement value after 3 years of injury free starting almost every day baseball and that doesnt warrant any type of financial commitment by the Reds in either dollar amount or length of contract.

by davidmac84 on Aug 23, 2008 12:47 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You misunderstood most of my argument

I know all about the defensive spectrum. I completely understand offensive value needing to increase as you go down the spectrum. I also said that “If they keep him, then it doesn’t matter where he plays because his offense will be in the lineup regardless.” I am in no way advocating moving Edwin to LF in place of signing a more potent bat. However, if they plan to keep Edwin in the lineup – which I think they should – then it doesn’t matter where he plays. The only reason you don’t move him to LF is if you have somebody better offensively that can’t handle another defensive position.

Nowhere did I say that Edwin should be locked up for 3 years. I said that he won’t cost more than 10-12 million over the next three years through arbitration.

I am very familiar with Edwin’s value over replacement players. I also know that the majority of Edwin’s value is taken away by his terrible defense at 3B. This is exactly why he should be moved from 3B. Yes he loses offensive value moving down the spectrum, but that’s only about 3 or 4 runs. If he’s merely average defensively, then he nets back another 10-15 runs with the defensive change. A net improvement of 10-15 runs is worth about $5 million on the free agent market according to calculation done by Tango. Unless the Reds are going to acquire a major bat to play LF – somebody significantly better than Edwin offensively – then it may not make sense to spend money on a marginally better player when you could potentially improve your team just by moving a guy who is only going to be making about $2 million.

Obviously all of this is predicated on the Reds plans. If they are going to trade for Matt Holliday or sign Pat Burrell, then there is no way you move Edwin to LF (unless Bruce is going to play CF). But when they are weighing their options for next season, one of those options should be trying out Edwin in LF to see how he fares defensively. As I’ve mentioned above, it would likely be a net benefit to the Reds.

Frankly though it probably doesn’t matter because this team is going to need some major help on offense next year. And unless Votto and Bruce are going to start posting an OPS over .900 they will have to sign a major bat, which is pretty much limited to Manny, Dunn, Burrell, and Teixeira on the free agent market.

I’m more a hello man and a welcome man than a good-bye man. And to me Adam Dunn was more a person than a player.

by Slyde on Aug 23, 2008 7:15 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You mean Griffey c.2008?

I agree, but we can take assurance in the fact that Manny wouldn’t come to Cincinnati unless we offered him 2x the money

Politickin' in God's Country

by chesirecat on Aug 23, 2008 1:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

alright

I will give you your one year of Edwin in Left Field. I will deputize you as my Doc Rodgers to my Jimmy Bowden and you know I was dying to fill that left field slot with Willy Mo for 2009.
Okay 2009 we have moved Edwin to left. I think Edwin’s athleticism is overrated but its not unreasonable that he can be a Dunn like LF which is actually right around league average. Lets say he kicks is OPS up to the 850-900 range(it would be interesting to see how players did offensively the year after they moved to an easier defensive position).
Beside offense which is difficult and expensive to fix- the other glaring weakness for the 08 Reds is having the worse 3rd/SS defense Kep doesnt have the range to play SS. But I would be surprised if he isnt at least average defensively at 3rd base and when healthy will give you 800-825 OPS.
Now we move Phillips to SS and the FA signing is Mark Ellis.
Why Mark? He will be much cheaper than a LF signing ie Pat Burrell. He gives you another gold glove middle infielder. And his home park is killing his offense. He has been 800+ 07 and 08 in his away games- the move to GAB should do wonders for him.
With improved infield defense, maturing Cueto, a healthy Harang whom I think is strong enough right now to pitch in relief next week along with a couple starts and pray Arroyo keeps it together and you may have close to a Tampa Bay improvement in defense.
With the offense- you need Votto and Bruce to take the big step up and just by removing Patterson from the lineup you will have a big positive next year right from the start.
I dont think the Reds will be a playoff team in 09 with these changes but it would be a solid foundation and put them in position to add one big piece offensively in 2010.

by davidmac84 on Aug 23, 2008 10:26 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

you dont think Bowden ever stole

an idea from the Doc- thats how we got Willy Mo.
Its a give and take- I relented on Edwin- he gives me Kep at 3rd and I am definitely down for Mark at 2nd.

by davidmac84 on Aug 23, 2008 11:42 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm okay with Kepp at 3B

since there isn’t anyone coming up next season and it shouldn’t be any great shakes to kick him out if Frazier is ready in 2010. It would be great if the Reds could pick up another bat (perhaps in CF? no idea who though). But yeah, next year relies on Bruce, Votto, and EdE otherwise. I think BP Is who he is. EdE might take a step forward, but I’m not expecting any sort of major breakout. I think he has an .850 OPS in him. Not great, but what’s scary is that could lead the team next season, though hopefully it won’t. I’d really like to see Votto blossom and Bruce start to control the strike zone better. But, as has been said in this thread previously, does anybody have any real confidence in the coaching staff to help any of these players improve (outside of Mario Soto with the young latin pitchers)?

I’m more a hello man and a welcome man than a good-bye man. And to me Adam Dunn was more a person than a player.

by Slyde on Aug 23, 2008 5:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If If If If

What if Hilary Clinton had wings and could fly?

Lot of ifs there david, I’ve been around Cinti. sports teams long enough to know that your logical approach to fielding a decent team is …..well too logical.

You can tell your uncle stuff that you could not tell your dad. That is kind of the role of an uncle. I feel very much like a father sometimes but sometimes I feel like a teammate.
Dusty Baker

by Madville on Aug 23, 2008 7:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I like EE

But not at 3B.

Have they ever tried him in the outfield?

There’s a vacancy in LF now…

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 21, 2008 1:17 AM EDT   0 recs

.308/.500/.615.

like the vacancy in my heart.

Kentuck Arts Festival: October 18th.
Details at Sinful Savage Tigers

by Man Mountain on Aug 21, 2008 9:53 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Well, those are decent little numbers there.

Who is that? Jesus?

It's so watery - and yet, there's a smack of ham to it.

by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Aug 21, 2008 10:02 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

In a way...

That .500 is actually .514 (as of this morning), MM. That OPS+ of 190 isn’t too shabby either.

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Aug 21, 2008 10:09 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Do unto others as you would have Dunn unto you.

"Being a human cannonball is not just a job, Pee Wee. It's a career."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Aug 21, 2008 10:45 AM EDT to parent up   1 recs

Rec'd

It's so watery - and yet, there's a smack of ham to it.

by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Aug 21, 2008 10:49 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh yeah, great post Scrabbles.

You sir, get a rec.

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Aug 21, 2008 10:45 AM EDT   0 recs

My 74 cents...

First, I think davidmac84 is off base. EdE is better offensively than Keppinger. Period. In his 4 years in the majors, Kepp’s OPS+ has been 80, 86, 128, and 72; which one is not like the others. Further, dm84 states "Personally I think Keppinger has more upside than Edwin even though Jeff is 3 years older", using his OPS from last year and his pre-injury performance this year. What missing, though, is that Kepp was much like Patterson this year – his numbers are skewed by a torrid first few games (5 XBH, 4 BB in 39 PA to start the season; 6 HBH, 8 BB in the next 124 PA before his injury). EdE has also been pretty unlucky this year. His BABIP was .310 going into this year, but is only .258 this – thanks to a .230 vs. RHP (89 points lower than last year!) (again, Kepp’s ’07 is out of line with the rest of his career, by quite a bit) . So you have a guy who’s 28 years old, has shown an ability to hit in only a select 315 PA chunk of his 833 PA pro career, and he has "more upside" than EdE?

However, he touches on something that I immediately thought of when reading the lead-in. Maybe the reason EdE hasn’t progressed enough to satisfy people has little to do with him; what if the Reds’ coaches just suck? Name one hitter/defender on this team who’s better than you’d expect given his pre-Cinci numbers. BP? He was the prize of the Bartolo Colon trade; his attitude in Cleveland was his biggest problem. Meanwhile, EdE hasn’t improved a lot over the past 3 years; Dunn, good as he was, never hit any better than he did as a 24 year old; Freel never progressed (though he didn’t play regularly until he was 28); after a great first 3 months in the bigs, Votto’s OPS since May 29 is .693; even though he’s had 2 nice hitting streaks in that time, Bruce’s OPS since the All-Star break is only .662.

So maybe Ramirez didn’t improve when he moved to Chicago because of "change of scenery" or "something just clicked" or other touchy-feely bullshit. Maybe he improved because the hitting coach (and apparently fielding coach) is pretty good, or at least able to relate to him. Maybe if Cinci, and specifically EdE, had such a coach, we’d see the break-out we’ve all been waiting for.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Aug 21, 2008 11:37 AM EDT   0 recs

yeah, the "shitty coaches" thing kinda keeps me up at night some times

how much money do you think a team could save by shelling out big bucks for a good coaching staff? Not a “name” coaching staff like Dusty’s dudes, but like, really getting some sharp minds in there? Save a whole heck of a lot on FA’s, no?

Also, another thing that I forgot to mention: Encarnacion had a .938 OPS in 78 games in Louisville before being called up his age 22 year. I don’t think you can say he was rushed. This was after he tore up AA the year before, so the Reds got Randa to cover 3b for a bit until Encarnacio was ready. Randa was then traded for Justin Germano and Travis Chick. Mehs all around.

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Aug 21, 2008 11:43 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The coaching thing bothers me as well

Primarily because it’s such an unknown quantity to fans like us. I simply don’t know enough about the coaches themselves or the job of coaching at the major league level.

I do know, however, that the Reds have been notoriously understaffed in terms of trainers, weights and conditioning instruction, advanced scouting and researching. We’ve been told these deficiencies have been addressed but who knows.

As sidnancy pointed out, it’s hard to think of a player the Reds have had over the past few years who has really improved his skill set after becoming a regular member of the major league club. It’s frustrating to watch a defensive clusterfuck like the squeeze play the other night or watch the whole lineup hacking only to have Chris and George say something like “No one is more frustrated about that then the coaching staff” or “that’s something that Dusty and his coaches have tried to get across to the players.”

Well maybe it’s time someone else tried.

Kentuck Arts Festival: October 18th.
Details at Sinful Savage Tigers

by Man Mountain on Aug 21, 2008 1:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Meant to add

I had mixed feelings about seeing Eric Davis in the dugout the last week or so. On the one hand, it was awesome to see one of my childhood idols back in uniform (and looking young and healthy!), but it made me worry about why he was there.

George and Chris mentioned that he was brought in to help mentor the younger players. That’s all well and good, but I worry that such decisions are PR ploys made in lieu of actually hiring a real, qualified, day-to-day coach. That these Reds greats of the past will make good press and, who knows, sprinkle fairy dust on the current players. But does it actually them become better players.

Bob certainly knows how to erect the facade of winning franchise — big-name manager with a winning record, big-name GM, sucking-off the BRM and 1990 Reds at every opportunity, fireworks, sending the fans a golly-gee-willikers email — but I’m still not sure he knows what a winning franchises look like behind the scenes and away from the glare of the spotlight.

Kentuck Arts Festival: October 18th.
Details at Sinful Savage Tigers

by Man Mountain on Aug 21, 2008 2:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed

I have mixed feelings whenever people advocate Larkin for a managerial/coaching position. It’s nice to develop links to the past (although it would be a shame when he would inevitably get Tony Perezed), but I have no idea if he has the aptitudes for the job.

by Red Menace on Aug 21, 2008 2:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

oh yeah, thought of players who improved when they became Reds

Harang is the only one I could think of that counts as “young and developing”. Hatteburg and Aurilia are worth mentioning, thoguh.

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Aug 21, 2008 5:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

when looking at Keppinger

the first obvious point is last year was the first time he had 200 AB at the MLB level.
I would agree .870 is unreasonable but I believe is track record supports a projection around .800 plus/minus 25 basis points.
Interesting looking at Minor league states Edwin was .803 with 2423 ABs/ while Kep was .797 at 2183 ABs. I dont think the record supports either Edwin or Kep being better offensively- I would project both around .800 OPS with Edwin deriving more value from HRS/ and Kep deriving more value from Batting Average. I believe a study has been done showing similar OPS- the player that derives more of the OPS from BA is more efficient in creating runs.
The other point on Edwin is he has been amazingly healthy only one DL stint in his complete career for 15 days which can be a positive but also paints a picture that Edwin is what he is .800 OPS/ horrible defensive 3rd basemen@ at a service level where is salary is going to start accelerating.
The one thing I would bet my wife’s life on is that Kep would be a significant defensive upgrade to Edwin. Hell Jorge Cantu would be a defensive upgrade.
Before I started looking at the numbers I liked Edwin a lot more as a player. But at this point I would say the only 3rd basemen he is clearly better in the NL is Jose Castillo.

by davidmac84 on Aug 21, 2008 12:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That's a pretty serious wager.

It's so watery - and yet, there's a smack of ham to it.

by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Aug 21, 2008 1:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I just had her life insurance updated

Its a risk I am willing to take.

by davidmac84 on Aug 21, 2008 1:21 PM EDT to parent up   1 recs

Well played.

It's so watery - and yet, there's a smack of ham to it.

by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Aug 21, 2008 1:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Big, huge difference
Interesting looking at Minor league states Edwin was .803 with 2423 ABs/ while Kep was .797 at 2183 ABs. I dont think the record supports either Edwin or Kep being better offensively

Sure, as long as you completely ignore the part where all but 372 of EdE’s AB occured before he was 22, and that Kepp had exactly zero MiLB AB by that age. In other words, the record absolutely supports that EdE will be better offensively, because everything he’s done has been at an age 3-4 years younger than Kepp at the same age.

Keppinger progressed through the minors until, at age 24, the Mets game him a chance. He stunk. After some additional seasoning in AAA, the Royals gave him another chance at age 26. He stunk. The Reds gave him another chance. Hit hit very well for a year and 9 games; since then, he’s stunk. As I said above, other than a select part of his pro career which is way out of whack with the rest of his history, there is no reason to suggest he’ll ever be a major-league hitter.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Aug 21, 2008 2:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Oops

…than Kepp at the same age level.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Aug 21, 2008 2:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

you have a broad definition of chance

116 ABs with NY Mets and then a whopping 60 ABs with the Royals.
The fact is when Kep has been healthy and given a reasonable chance(ie more than 200 ABs) he has produced at least at the level of Edwin just in a different fashion.
If you look at both players numbers in the minors they have similar progression. Obviously at 22 you would have considered Edwin a much better prospect. But when you are player that after 1500 MLB ABs is a worse player than he was when he was at 23- the projections of both players at their respective younger ages becomes meaningless.
I guess at what point do you accept Edwin as the player he probably is- the player he was been at almost every level. A horrid fielder that produces a .800 OPS in a home park that is definitely top 10 in park adjustment.
The compelling reason to prefer Kep over Edwin is I guarantee you will significantly improve your 3rd base defense while taking a very minimal risk that Edwin will actually become a significantly better offensive player than Jeff.

by davidmac84 on Aug 21, 2008 3:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You have a broad definition of both "worse"

Unless by “worse” you mean “not worse”, especially as his strike zone judgement seems to be getting better.

You’re still ignoring how Keppinger hit after the first 9 games of this season (before he was hurt). You’re also still ignoring that EdE has been exceptionally unlucky on BABIP this year.

The problem for mid- or small-market teams is not in signing mediocre talent like EdE – a team full of league-average players would be pretty good. The problem is in seeing a guy like Kepp (especially one who’s 28 years old) do something over 250 ABs completely out of line with everything else he’s done and expect that to be his new talent level. That’s what made Ryan Freel a millionaire.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Aug 21, 2008 3:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

So I just looked a little closer, and thought more about it

And you make even less sense.

No doubt, EdE and Kepp have equivalent MiLB numbers. You even admit that EdE’s numbers project better, because he played against that competition at a much younger age. It’s the pro numbers that we seem to be quibbling about.

EdE has more than twice as many MLB PAs as Kepp; over that time, his OPS is 60 points higher (OPS+ 13 points higher). If an additional 900 PA (nearly 1 1/2 years) of significantly better performance doesn’t point to EdE being better offensively, and doing that while being younger pointing to “projecting better”, I’d like to know what it would take.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Aug 21, 2008 4:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

One last comment

Digging even deeper:

32 games. 6 weeks.

On July 16 last year, Kepp came in as a pinch hitter against Atlanta and drove in the game winner in the 9th; on August 25th, he had a 3-5 day with 3 runs in a win against Florida, capping a 32 game run in which he hit .390/453/.593. The rest of ‘07, both before and after that streak, Kepp hit .271/.346/.356; for the entire rest of his pro career, he’s hit ..270/.322/.360.

If not for those magical 142 PA, no one in their right mind would think Keppinger an every-day player in Major League Baseball. Yet you’d want to dump a guy who’s proven to be at least an average hitter, with many flashes of brilliance, and give the job to Kepp.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Aug 21, 2008 5:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

My take?

There’s no reason to trade EE unless some team gives an awesome trade offer. Maybe even that high OBP, great D SS I’ve had my heart set on for so long. But he’s under the Reds’ control for three more years, and I don’t see why they shouldn’t take advantage of them.

I thought he’d really break out this year. above average D, 880 OPS, that sort of thing. He hasn’t, but I still like him. He has power, he’s competitive, he seems like he knows what he’s doing. There’s also been a couple of times when he’s gone out to Volquez or (more often) Cueto on the mound to chat them up. I think having a Dominican field player, especially IFer, can be a huge help.

Basically, I don’t see what you’ll lose by giving EdE another year at 3rd. Sure, keep Kepp around, but Kepp ain’t the answer any more than EdE is. I’m an idiot/huge believer in team chemistry. Encarnacion seems to be the sort of fiery, take-it-to-people sort of player that everyone hated Dunn and Griffey for not being. Next year he gets to be a bit of a leader…let’s see how that works out.

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Aug 21, 2008 11:38 AM EDT   0 recs

This year Eddie's been batting deeper in the order.

6th – 7th a lot. I wonder if he’d maybe see some better pitches w/RISP if the team had a big bat behind him in the order. I am hopeful for EdE but that’s all. This was the year that I thought EdE would bust out and although he’s improving somewhat offensively I would trade him in a minute for a more consistent RH batter, or for a RH batter with better power numbers.

You can tell your uncle stuff that you could not tell your dad. That is kind of the role of an uncle. I feel very much like a father sometimes but sometimes I feel like a teammate.
Dusty Baker

by Madville on Aug 21, 2008 1:33 PM EDT   0 recs

Just a further note:

Today EdE’s 6th, followed by a couple of big time stinkers – 7th corey, 8th Bako…there’s two guys that would be better served playing for the bats, a la Toothache.

Here’s a shot of Barry Larkin with Chad.
Larkin “Who fuck did you blow to get on this team anyway?”
Chad “Waynr’s wiener was my meal ticket”

You can tell your uncle stuff that you could not tell your dad. That is kind of the role of an uncle. I feel very much like a father sometimes but sometimes I feel like a teammate.
Dusty Baker

by Madville on Aug 21, 2008 1:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd give Edwin one more year at 3B

Based on what I’ve seen his fielding deficiencies are the type that can be fixed – inaccurate throws, how he charges slow rollers, etc. His range, which is more athletic/instinctual and harder to teach, looks okay, though I’d like to objective analysis on that.

If by 2010 it’s clear that he can’t handle 3B then we need to think about moving him to LF. Or trading him, if Votto and Alonso develop nicely.

by ken on Aug 21, 2008 2:00 PM EDT   0 recs

(even though that was all Bako's fault last night)

Edwin shouldnt be free from blame at all in that matter, he had the ball he is the 3rd basemen, he looked back at the runner, if we would have noticed fat-Soto was so close to the home plate, he would have actually held him and done his job instead of listening to Bako`s dumbass, yes catcher is the general of the field, but when there is a split second and you see where the runner is (or at least when you look at him you are supposed to see where he is) you should get that run-threatening out, and Bako shouldnt even be getting enough attention to be listened to. Bako however is an idiot and get some of the blame, but not all, that was just stupid.

by Reynard on Aug 21, 2008 8:48 PM EDT   0 recs

Is Edwin really "horrible" at defense?

I have heard that word thrown out a few times here, mostly by d-mac. I am not saying Edwin is a stellar defender but is he really “horrible?” Perhaps I have been a bit out of touch with observing his defense the past couple of months but I remember after a rough start he seemed to get in a groove in May where it seemed he was making a run saving plays once or twice a week.

Perhaps other people who have been watching Edwin’s defensive development closely could comment?

Perhaps other people who know what defensive stats tell the best statistical story about a players value in the field could also comment (with maybe a tutorial or link about measuring defensive prowess with stats)?

Tanzen!

by Verka Serduchka on Aug 22, 2008 1:14 AM EDT   0 recs

He's pretty bad

As Ken said the things he does poorly seem correctable while the things he does well stem from his great athleticism. But he’s very bad right now.

Here’s a summary of some of the freely available defensive stats out there. I’ll add JinAZ’s work.

by Red Menace on Aug 22, 2008 1:42 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Interesting Charlie

I like to first state that earlier this season I said Jeff K would be a better option at 3rd then Edwin and I’ll like to take that one back.

2nd thing when looking at Edwin’s numbers I don’t really think we can say that his career will be anything like Ramirez’s though. I understand your point was to say that we shouldn’t give up on a promising young player. I just think Edwin is going to be a solid MLB player like Jorge Cantu and Ryan Zimmerman{Yes I know baseball reference has them both as his top two comparable hitters} but not a All-Star caliber player like Ramirez.

What Reds fans need to get past is that not every player can be great and appear to be blue collar. Are Edwin and Dunn going to be at an All-Star game the rest of there career? Most likely not. however; this should not reflect how what they do well {Hit} and how important that is.

Norris Hopper's #1 fan!!!

by Zach K on Aug 22, 2008 9:28 AM EDT   0 recs

Ryan Zimmerman when healthy

will be one of the best, if not the best, defensive 3rd basemen in the game.

Kentuck Arts Festival: October 18th.
Details at Sinful Savage Tigers

by Man Mountain on Aug 22, 2008 9:33 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He's also the face of the franchise

Of course, the Nationals don’t have much else. Of course, the Reds