Lineups

by sidnancy on Jul 30, 2008 8:58 AM EDT Comment 33 comments

Boy, was last night’s lineup brutal. It makes one wonder how Dusty gets paid so much money.

But it got me thinking about batting orders. I know batting order doesn’t matter much – The Book says so – as long as you have the right people in the order (another discussion altogether). But they only looked at 2 things: the optimum order, and what would happen if you put the worst hitter in any spot. The optimum would look something like this:

2nd best hitter (or best, if nearly equal to #1 and high OBP)

3rd (or 4th, if great baserunner)

5th

Best (or 2nd, if high SLG)

4th (or 3rd, again if high SLG)

6th

7th

8th

9th

Dusty’s lineup last night, though, looked like this (by OPS vs. RHP):

8th

7th

Best

6th

3rd

4th

5th

2nd

9th

In the end, it probably didn’t matter much last night, but this is the type of batting order Dusty uses repeatedly. So you have to wonder – how many runs is Dusty costing this team by turning the batting order almost completely upside down?

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every once in a while dusty runs out a great line up

that seems to notice that Ede is actually hitting the cover off the ball, that Dunn getting on base with a walk is good when there are folks behind him that are above the mendoza line and doesn’t treat Bruce like a lead off man just because he plays CF. it makes complete sense and I feel good about the team at least going into the game but then nights like last night happen and suddenly you can’t remember the last time a struggling SS didn’t hit second. i want to ask cubs and giants fans if they experienced the same thing, it just doesn’t seem logical continually running out these line ups that don’t make sense.

by OURob on Jul 30, 2008 9:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

before he came to Cincinnati, this is how his lead-off and 2nd hitters broke down

Lead-off hitters:

Pos   GS  Pct
CF  1686  76%
2B   204   9%
RF   162   7%
LF    56   3%
3B    50   2%
SS    44   2%
1B     1   0%
C      1   0%

Second hitters:

Pos   GS  Pct
SS   725  33%
2B   706  32%
3B   460  21%
CF   153   7%
RF    54   2%
LF    45   2%
1B    38   2%
C     21   1%
DH     2   0%

It's a lousy night to be an atheist!

by Slyde on Jul 30, 2008 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Was the 3B hitting second

Mainly Rich Aurilia I’m guessing?

sig lines are for suckas

by jch24 on Jul 30, 2008 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bill Mueller, actually

Aurilia never played 3B under Dusty.

It's a lousy night to be an atheist!

by Slyde on Jul 30, 2008 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah

I got my “professional white guys” confused.

sig lines are for suckas

by jch24 on Jul 30, 2008 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

SS is it Omar and Gonzo ?

by OURob on Jul 30, 2008 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Vizquel never played for Dusty

It’s Aurilia (310), then Jose Vizcaino (108), the other Alex Gonzalez (77) and then a multitude of suck that includes Neifi Perez, Ramon Martinez, Royce Clayton, and Cesar Izturis. Of the names listed, only Aurilia and Martinez have a career OBP over .320.

In fact, of all of the players that Dusty has batted 2nd more than 50 times (12 in total), only Bill Mueller (.373 career OBP), Todd Walker (.348 OBP), and Mark Grudzielanek (.345 OBP) have career OBPs over .330 (Kepp will join that group with 5 more starts batting 2nd). Mueller has the most starts batting 2nd under Dusty (394), so I’ll give him credit on that, but other than Mueller, it really seems like Dusty is more than willing to give up an out in the 2-hole with his best hitters coming up. That’s probably okay when your best hitters are Barry Bonds or Derrek Lee, but with the group that the Reds have in the middle of the order, they could probably use that extra out to get the job done.

It's a lousy night to be an atheist!

by Slyde on Jul 30, 2008 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whatever you guys do

Don’t say the name of the first guy in the ‘multitude of suck’ group two more times, please. I’d hate to have his rotting carcass show up like Beetlejuice.

sig lines are for suckas

by jch24 on Jul 30, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was speaking with a friend of mine on Monday

A Cubs fan I’ve known for a long time who actually lives down the street from me, but who I haven’t really talked to since the Baker hiring. At some point I started bitching about things, and he was chuckling at the familiarity of it.

He said that it was extremely frustrating to watch, but the Chicago media did a great job of vocalizing many of the fans’ more reasonable frustrations and keeping after him.

So, basically, we’re fucked.

Kentuck Arts Festival: October 18th.
Details at Sinful Savage Tigers on MySpace.

by Man Mountain on Jul 30, 2008 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

*whom, and

he said the key to the rest of their season is Jeff Samardzija.

So, they’re probably fucked too.

Kentuck Arts Festival: October 18th.
Details at Sinful Savage Tigers on MySpace.

by Man Mountain on Jul 30, 2008 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, they are handling the Brewers so far...

It's a lousy night to be an atheist!

by Slyde on Jul 30, 2008 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's not to say it's over

I just really expected the Brewers to go in there and kick some ass.

It's a lousy night to be an atheist!

by Slyde on Jul 30, 2008 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this gets me thinking

about how slow most are to accept a new point of view when it comes to baseball. Last night Chris Welsh called OPS “the new, trendy stat.” That’s about the last thing OPS is, but how many inside baseball people actually know that? Of players and managers, what percent actually subscribe to a bill jamesian view of the game? 5 percent? Less? About the best we get are some good quotes from Brian Bannister and some NL Central managers batting the pitcher 8th. That’s about it. And just about everyone I meet and talk baseball with is an old-school type. Which is fine (my interest in the game is of the old-school variety, I think), but why are these people so resistant to a different school of thought, and one that isn’t even new? It makes being a baseball fan difficult for me at times.

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Jul 30, 2008 9:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

what... it only took a hundred years for batting average to catch on.

by OURob on Jul 30, 2008 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Still waiting for a grit % and the veteran leadership %

pete rose to tony perez "how can anyone as slow as you pull a muscle?"

by dunnateher on Jul 30, 2008 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The good folks at Brew Crew Ball have calculated such a thing

I was trying to come up with the numbers for the Reds, but ground ball % threw me off. Then I started doing other things.

by Brendanukkah on Jul 30, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OPS

I think part of the hesitancy to accept it is the inability to quickly calculate or approximate it. If Dunn goes 3 for 12 in a series, you instantly know that he hit about his normal BA, .250. Throw in two walks, a double, and a HR, and you need Excel to figure out his OPS.

by ken on Jul 30, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i use google to calculate it

i start with the hits then add 1 for doubles and 3 for home runs and divide by the ABs for SLG, then i add one to the hits and ABs for each walk and divide again for on base. then i add those numbers up. So yeah, it’s not real simple, but hey, did everyone know that google is a calculator?

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Jul 30, 2008 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Google?

Isn’t that a porn search engine?

Bend over and drop your pants, Mr. Babar.

by Slyde on Jul 30, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No sir

That would be Booble or Pornotube. Or so my friend told me.

(Both links NSFC, duh)

How can such a good looking man be so bad at getting to first base?

by jch24 on Jul 30, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

google has more porn than those two combined

or so your friend told me

So hey, umm....do you guys mind if I have this fruit roll-up?

by chandrathan on Jul 30, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where is obc/Slyde/Ash/sukr/snohio, anyway?

Bunch of pervs, those people.

How can such a good looking man be so bad at getting to first base?

by jch24 on Jul 30, 2008 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ash and Sukr hate us and don't think we're cool anymore

OBC will pop up when you least expect him with a fanpost

Slyde is here…he’s always here.

Snohio is unpredictable.

So hey, umm....do you guys mind if I have this fruit roll-up?

by chandrathan on Jul 30, 2008 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is it me...I mean - Ash ...I can change

Look I’m coooool – Cold even

I often think how different the world would be if Hitler had not been turned down when he applied for art school. - George Carlin

by Madville on Jul 30, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only thing you can predict

is my unpredictability.

And how did I get dragged into the pornography discussion? Just because I am a systems admin and know ways around filters and what not…

Oh yeah, and I am 6 days late for this discussion. Work’s been a bitch lately.

Hey, if I had some place to go I certainly wouldn't be in 'Cleve-Land'. -H.T.Duck

by snohio on Aug 3, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

um

I’m right here.

Bend over and drop your pants, Mr. Babar.

by Slyde on Jul 30, 2008 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was implying

That all you people are pervs, and corrupted ‘tHan and myself.

How can such a good looking man be so bad at getting to first base?

by jch24 on Jul 30, 2008 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cuil it!

by Red Menace on Jul 30, 2008 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would like to reiterate a comment I made on another Diary re: Lineups -

Batting order alone could win some games
Line ups too. Not to mention not knowing your players well enough to know who can or can’t bunt. the list goes on. I believe a manager can make a significant difference in how a talented but under performing team plays. How the BP is used, how long a struggling starter is left in the game, when to get a reliever throwing, double switches, improper defensive changes, allowing unprofessional ABs…the list goes on and on.

I often think how different the world would be if Hitler had not been turned down when he applied for art school. - George Carlin

by Madville on Jul 30, 2008 2:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The only thing that needs to be said about Batting Order/Lineups

Dusty Baker is a fool. These lineups will not get any better until he is gone, because we know Fay, sMarty, Doc or anyone else won’t rip him for the awful lineups.

At least with Narron changing the order everyday we got to see an okay one every once in a while. Now we have Griffey batting third every single night. We have a dipshit steering the boat.

by kennythered on Jul 30, 2008 9:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dusty knows only the important stuff...He is a Jedi Buntmanster

You can tell your uncle stuff that you could not tell your dad. That is kind of the role of an uncle. I feel very much like a father sometimes but sometimes I feel like a teammate.
Dusty Baker

by Madville on Aug 4, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A crazy line-up?

1. BP
2. Dunner
3. Ede
4. Votto
5. The Bruce
6. Kepp
7. Ross
8. P
9. Dicker/Cpat

when Cherry is back

1. Hudson Jr.
2. Dunner
3. Ede
4. Votto
5. BP
6. The Bruce
7. Ross
8. P
9. Kepp

crazy huh?

pete rose to tony perez "how can anyone as slow as you pull a muscle?"

by dunnateher on Aug 4, 2008 8:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Crazyman?

Your line up/batting order looks like a producer to me.

You can tell your uncle stuff that you could not tell your dad. That is kind of the role of an uncle. I feel very much like a father sometimes but sometimes I feel like a teammate.
Dusty Baker

by Madville on Aug 4, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs