What would Billy Beane do?

by JJ on Jul 21, 2008 2:14 PM EDT Comment 17 comments

As an Oakland A’s and Cincinnati Reds fan, I often wonder what the Reds would be like if they had Billy Beane running the team. If BB had taken over after last season, I can see him realizing that the team was more than 1-2 players away from contending and that the minor league system needed some additional strength. Here’s what I can picture happening:

Harang to Arizona for a similar haul as he got for Haren (includes Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez, who are on the MLB team, and Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, and Aaron Cunningham).
Arroyo to another team for prospects similar to those obtained by Blanton (includes Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman, and Matthew Spencer)
Griffey to another team for a minor prospect
Never invited Corey Patterson within 100 miles of Cincinnati
Trade Dunn near the trading deadline and called up Jay Bruce
Kept Josh Hamilton – I just don’t think he would have traded away such an enormous talent. The only way Volquez would be a Red would be if the Rangers would have taken Joey Votto for him.
A Josh Fogg-ish pitcher would be in the rotation, but so would Smith, Eveland, Cueto, and Thompson/Bailey.
Not signing Francisco Cordero.
All in all, reducing the club’s payroll significantly, leaving more room for large bonuses for draft picks and Latin ballplayers, and giving flexibility going into next offseason.

The thing I love about BB is that he makes pre-emptive moves. The A’s weren’t going to win this year without a couple big-name free-agent signings, which just weren’t available last offseason. So, BB, knowing the weakness of A’s farm system, acted to shore it up with short and long-term solutions. Yes, Aaron Harang is a stud, 2008 injury notwithstanding, but so are the 6 players Oakland got for Dan Haren, including the 2 whose MLB pitching performances are not that far behind Haren’s.

The thing that frustrates me about Reds’ management is that they seem to be stuck between wanting to win now (“Going for it”) and building for the future. As Billy Beane shows us, there is a way to succeed at doing both.

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I would love for Beane to be in Cinci. Sadly, I do not expect the steal of the century this time around. Harang and Griffey both should be traded, but I’m not so certain on Dunn. I’d like to see if we can catch up to the Cards and Brewers, and I think Dunn would be necessary for that.

If Dunn, Griffey, and Harang are off the payroll, then the Reds should either make a splash in free agency and try to draw a big name or sign a bunch of young players who may have underachieved previously. I prefer the latter.

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by Colts Homer on Jul 21, 2008 4:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why should Harang be traded?

It's a lousy night to be an atheist!

by Slyde on Jul 21, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree on some

Arroyo won’t likely net the same types of prospects as Blanton mainly because Arroyo gets expensive after this season while Blanton still has 2 years of arbitration.

Griffey wouldn’t have gone anywhere. Who would want him and why would Griffey want to go there? His 10-5 rights makes him very difficult to trade.

Corey Patterson is basically the same player as Jay Payton, for whom Beane traded. The only thing I would guess is that Patterson wouldn’t be making $3 million

I bet he still trades Hamilton, who had plenty of question marks at the end of last season. The Reds needed pitching depth and there wasn’t anybody else that was going to bring high quality pitching on the roster.

I agree that he would not have signed Cordero, but I also agree that the bullpen would be a pit of suck this season.

I like Beane as much as the next stathead, but you are essentially saying that Beane wouldn’t have made any mistakes and everything would have worked out better. The situations in Oakland and Cincinnati are completely different. Beane’s also had success in Oakland because he has been there for a long time, implementing his own plan. The big problem is not that the Reds don’t have Billy Beane, it’s that they’ve had 5 different people play GM in the last 5 years. How can anybody gain any traction with that kind of turnover?

It's a lousy night to be an atheist!

by Slyde on Jul 21, 2008 4:30 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

The Patterson question

Patterson’s an interesting case. Krivsky has come right out and said that he was Dusty’s call. Beane strikes me as the type of GM that wouldn’t be swayed by a big-name manager. So I guess I’d agree that Beane wouldn’t have gotten Patterson, even though he has signed Patterson-esque players in the past. And if Beane did trade Hamilton, then he would have needed someone to play outfield. I wonder if Kenny Lofton would have been a possibility, but probably not. It’s seemed that Kenny’s contract demands, be they money or time, have been too rich for any team, and I don’t think Beane would have been the one to budge.

So the good thing about Beane is that he has a plan, sticks to it, and takes proactive steps to achieve it. I would hope Jocketty could be that type of guy, but I’ll settle for him being forceful enough to bring in the players he wants, and not the players Dusty wants.

by Brendanukkah on Jul 21, 2008 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's clear that Beane is the one in charge of the A's organization

I don’t know if we could say something similar about a single person in the Reds org.

It's a lousy night to be an atheist!

by Slyde on Jul 21, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, Beane is in charge and does a very good job.

I like him, but he’s not bullet proof. He’s made his fair share of mistakes, as any GM would with his tenure. (Go to mlbtraderumors.com and search for Billy Beane trade history). Usually, though, he comes out on the better end of deals. He’s drafted well and has a so-so free agent signing record.

I really like it that he recognizes that his team either is a contender and he takes steps to win it all, or that his club has no shot and he rebuilds. He doesn’t fool around with anything in between. That’s the way to run a franchise. If the Reds had recognized that years ago …

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jul 21, 2008 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

big reason why A's are over 500?

Whatever Justin Duscherer is drinking. Like Sudsbury police locked in the back of a semi, I did not see that one coming.

Eveland pitching like a big-leaguer hasn’t hurt either…another thing that is pretty shocking and I doubt many folks were expecting.

So yeah, either Beane has insane scouts, a mean pitching coach, or great luck this year. Just, uh, don’t buy too high on Duscherer, yall.

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Jul 21, 2008 5:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs