Sea Bass's season is over before it begins

by Slyde on Jul 2, 2008 4:35 PM EDT

Alex Gonzalez will have surgery Monday to correct the compression fraction in the left knee.

"It's tough decision," he said. "But I've been working hard and I don't see progress. The MRI is the same as May."

Gonzalez has missed the entire year. He said the rehab program is five to six months.

Surgery was an option all along. "It was a last option," Gonzalez said. "But for months, it don't get better. I'm not even close."

Luckily I think insurance pays his salary for this year, but that's a pretty damn big question mark to have going into next season. You have to wonder if the Reds would be willing to eat $6 million and go out and get another shortstop (which I think they should), or if they will keep their fingers crossed that Gonzalez can play next year.

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I've been resisting this move for a long time now

But I think, the season going the way it is, now is a good time to give Brandon Phillips an extended look at shortstop. He came up as a shortstop, and his defense at second suggests that he’d have better range than Keppinger or Hairston. Janish could fill in defensively, maybe, but certainly not with the bat. I love Phillips as a second baseman, but really if we’ve got a guy who’s more naturally a shortstop playing second base and a couple of guys who are more naturally second basemen playing shortstop, isn’t it worth switching them and seeing what happens?

If Gonzalez was healthy, I would say that the starting shortstop position is his to lose. But he hasn’t been, and he won’t be. I think now is the proper time to try Phillips at short. Keppinger/Hairston can play second, and Kepp can fill in for Encarnacion on occasion, and Hairston can play in the outfield. Lord knows what happens when Freel comes back, but we’ll sort that out then. You don’t have anything to lose, as far as this season goes, and we might find that this is a better look for us going into the future.

by Brendanukkah on Jul 2, 2008 4:52 PM EDT 1 recs

I agree

70+ games should give us a good idea of Phillips can handle shortstop. I’m not an expert on defensive analysis, but it seems like the runs gained by moving Kepp or Hairston from SS to 2B will likely be greater than those lost by moving BP the other way.

Plus, I’m a big fan of trying to sign free agent Mark Ellis in the off-season and playing him at 2B. He’s very comparable to BP both offensively and defensively and I think the two of them would make for some killer up the middle defense with pretty good bats to boot.

I want a hamburger. No, a cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake. I want potato chips...

by Slyde on Jul 2, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

This is a great idea

but I suspect Dusty’s not the one to implement it.

by Gray on Jul 2, 2008 5:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

sorry to hear about Sea Bass. he seems like a nice guy.

Ive been saying all along that BP needs to be our SS though. i never thought we should have signed Sea Bass to begin with, as a servicable 2B would have been cheaper. but this news just gives us the reason to try it. as for signing Ellis, im not so hot about it. I think Kepp should get a look at being the everyday 2B. he’s no Mark Ellis, but he would be much cheaper.

Stephen A. Douglas was a great debater, but Abraham Lincoln was the Great Emancipator.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 2, 2008 5:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don't know

Looking at Justin Inaz’s numbers, Ellis would be the most valuable non-pitcher on the Reds right now, and it wouldn’t be close. I think you’ve got to look at places where you can make a big impact for minimal dollars, and to me that’s Ellis. Yes he’d be more expensive than Kepp, but he’d also be much more productive. Plus, he only makes $5 million right now and he’s incredibly underrated, so there is a very good chance the Reds could bid high for him and still get a nice deal.

Comparatively, to make a big impact on the outfield, they will most likely need to spend big on someone like Dunn or Burrell – I’d imagine at least $5 million more a season than Ellis.

I want a hamburger. No, a cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake. I want potato chips...

by Slyde on Jul 2, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

I meant to link to Justin's site

http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2008/06/total-value-ytd-through-23-june.html

I want a hamburger. No, a cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake. I want potato chips...

by Slyde on Jul 2, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

wow those numbers are impressive

i think we fans here in Cincy get lulled into thinking solid league-average dudes like Kepp are really something. i love the guy, but having him and his versatility on the bench would REALLY be something. but first off, we need to petition Baker to move BP to SS.

Stephen A. Douglas was a great debater, but Abraham Lincoln was the Great Emancipator.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 2, 2008 6:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

I know lots of people around here are big on Keppinger

but what about the impressive season Hairston’s having so far? Sure, he’s only seen 170 PAs, but he’s hitting an impressive .331/.378/.483, plus he has actual speed—13 SB and only 2 CS. Since we know Dusty is going to make whoever’s batting leadoff run all the time, it helps to have someone who can actually pull it off.

Does nobody really believe that he can keep it up, or what? By comparison, Keppinger is hitting .315/.372/.427 (198 PA) with 2 SB, while Ellis is .255/.348/.422 (326 PA) with speed comparable to Hairston’s. Sure, Ellis is an above average fielder at second, but wouldn’t Keppinger and Hairston be in that league, too?

We ain’t no last place team are we Pops ?

by Gray on Jul 2, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hairston is a blip

i applaude the guy for his good season thus far, but he is playing pretty far above his career norms. he’ll come to earth before the season is over. my biggest fear is that he doesnt fall to earth until August/September and then Dusty wants him signed for the next 2-3 years. can anyone say Ryan Freel?

Stephen A. Douglas was a great debater, but Abraham Lincoln was the Great Emancipator.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 2, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

You don't buy into the theory

that playing with a busted rib for two years hindered him?

by Brendanukkah on Jul 2, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

I was skeptical of this at first

but I’ve really started to wonder if there’s something to it. Hairston isn’t just hitting well. His swing and approach at the plate look pretty damn good to me.

If I screw up the courage, I might just go look up his plate coverage numbers using Slyde’s favorite new widget. But, if I had to guess blindly, I’d say he’s been impressive in that regards as well.

He's doing it. He's eating a tire!

by Man Mountain on Jul 2, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hairston is a blip, but Keppinger is for real?

We ain’t no last place team are we Pops ?

by Gray on Jul 2, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

yes, i would say so

Kepp’s numbers in the bigs are commensurate with his performance as a hitter from college all the way up through the minors. he has flat out hit at every level. his career minor league OPS is .793, and his career major league OPS is .809. so i can definately see him putting up a few seasons at .800 OPS. thats downright BP-esque for a middle infielder. the reason the Mets and Royals passed on him was because his defense was suspect. i guess they didnt think he could stick as a 2B and didnt have the stick for a 3B. Hairston is having the best season of his career thus far. his best year was in ‘04, when he hit .303 .378 .397 in only 287 ABs. this year he is hitting .331 .378 .483 in 151 ABs. so its not even close. and when you compare it to his career line of .257 .327 .365, you can take it to the bank that he will fall back to earth sometime soon. again, i just hope its soon enough that Dusty wont want to sign him to a Freel deal.

Stephen A. Douglas was a great debater, but Abraham Lincoln was the Great Emancipator.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 2, 2008 8:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

Keeping both Keppinger and Hairston makes a lot of sense

Both have shown the ability to hit, play multiple positions and (esp. Kepp) play at an acceptable level in the starting lineup. this doeesn’t mean that BP shouldn’t be the everyday SS, or that we shouldn’t look at a guy like Mark Ellis. These two guys (Kepp and Jerry Jr.) have shown repeated plate discipline, the ability to put the ball in ball and can play well enough in the field.If they’re not everyday players they’d sure be exceptional role players.

"When I got my award, I just wore my usual stuff," Dunn said.
"Was it for the Reds organization or all of baseball?" Bruce said.

by Madville on Jul 3, 2008 12:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

A's

Any idea if they’re going to try to resign Ellis? I believe their most recent 1st round pick, Rickie Weeks’ brother, is also a 2B. But I don’t know if they have anyone ready to step in for Ellis if they lose him.

by ken on Jul 2, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don't think the A's will let him walk

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080625&content_id=3002601&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb&partnerId=rss_mlb

by kennythered on Jul 2, 2008 6:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

I figured they would resign him

but what fun is it to wish for mediocre players? And as long as he is set to be a free agent, I’ll keep pining for him.

I want a hamburger. No, a cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake. I want potato chips...

by Slyde on Jul 2, 2008 7:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well, I'm still crossing my fingers for Garret Anderson.

by ken on Jul 2, 2008 7:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

to sign elsewhere?

I want a hamburger. No, a cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake. I want potato chips...

by Slyde on Jul 2, 2008 7:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

Garret Anderson?

by kennythered on Jul 2, 2008 8:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not really

He just seems like a Dusty kind of guy.

by ken on Jul 3, 2008 7:14 AM EDT up 0 recs

...

Phillips at SS, Frazier at 2B? or would he be a butcher at 2B?

by kennythered on Jul 2, 2008 8:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

probably

I keep reading that he’s a future 1B or LF.

I want a hamburger. No, a cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake. I want potato chips...

by Slyde on Jul 2, 2008 8:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

rec'd

And I would really hope that this is the next idea that our resident deep throat whispers into John Erardi’s ear.

He's doing it. He's eating a tire!

by Man Mountain on Jul 2, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not trying to dump on Kepp or Hairston

but I agree with Slyde, Ellis would be a huge upgrade. Look at Boston and the depth they have on the bench. That is what makes a good ball club. Even their get away day lineups are good. Kepp and Hairston’s versatilty are very valuable, but I wonder if they would be everyday regulars on any of the teams leading their divisions right now.

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Jul 2, 2008 5:51 PM EDT 0 recs

If we could hold onto both Keppinger and Hairston

and have Freel and Hopper back, it seems like one of them could play regularly and we’d still have a pretty decent bench, no?

We ain’t no last place team are we Pops ?

by Gray on Jul 2, 2008 5:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

like this year?

I want a hamburger. No, a cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake. I want potato chips...

by Slyde on Jul 2, 2008 7:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

No

I like all those players, but none of them plays shortstop at even the average level.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jul 2, 2008 8:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

That's why we'd need BP at short.

We ain’t no last place team are we Pops ?

by Gray on Jul 2, 2008 9:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

and that is why we need Eddie Van Halen

He's doing it. He's eating a tire!

by Man Mountain on Jul 3, 2008 12:17 AM EDT up 1 recs

Rec'd!

by Brian B on Jul 3, 2008 12:19 AM EDT up 0 recs

MM, this is thru a couple of days ago (it got chopped off when I posted it in a reply)

I think Cherry’s play at this level is a blip. He has a line drive rate of 30.5%. Even in his healthy years he was 6 or 7% lower than that. Given more at bats, I think you’ll see that number and the corresponding results go down.

That being said, if he can be an average bat over the course of a season, he’s not a bad player to have around. I wouldn’t be locking him in to a starting spot at this point though.

I want a hamburger. No, a cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake. I want potato chips...

by Slyde on Jul 2, 2008 7:30 PM EDT 0 recs

you're killin me smalls

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Jul 2, 2008 10:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

I am always skeptical when it comes to injuries

but when he was progressing in spring training, I didn’t think we would see him this season. It just seemed like he kept aggrevating it. Too bad his time in Cincinnati has been a bust.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Jul 2, 2008 11:06 PM EDT 0 recs

2009 2B and SS Free Agents

Second basemen
Ray Durham (37)
Mark Ellis (32)
Marcus Giles (31)
Mark Grudzielanek (39)
Orlando Hudson (31)
Tadahito Iguchi (34)
Jeff Kent (41)
Felipe Lopez (29)
Mark Loretta (37)
Aaron Miles (32)
Jose Valentin (39)

Shortstops
Orlando Cabrera (34)
David Eckstein (34)
Adam Everett (32)
Rafael Furcal (31)
Cristian Guzman (31)
Cesar Izturis (29)
Felipe Lopez (29)
Edgar Renteria (33) – $11MM club option for ‘09 with a $3MM buyout
Juan Uribe (30)
Omar Vizquel (42) – $5.2MM club option for ‘09 with a $0.3MM buyout

Not a whole lot of good choices, but plenty of guys willing to accept a ton of cash for suckitude.

by jacob brumfield on Jul 3, 2008 12:08 AM EDT 0 recs

Juan Uribe is only 30!

He was a member of the fateful fantasy baseball team in college that spurred me to seek out the wispy frontiers of Deep Stats.

He's doing it. He's eating a tire!

by Man Mountain on Jul 3, 2008 12:21 AM EDT up 0 recs

I'm for signing Eckstein to play second

Because we all know when you sign that man, you get the heart, soul, and desire of ten men conveniently packaged in a to go sized box.

by jacob brumfield on Jul 3, 2008 9:22 AM EDT up 0 recs

He's like White Castle Sliders

I want a hamburger. No, a cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake. I want potato chips...

by Slyde on Jul 3, 2008 10:47 AM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah!

Because who doesn’t want Dusty using him to lead off while he’s OPSing around .700, pinch hit with him in clutch situations (a la C-Pat), and see Paul Daugherty verbally fellate him week after week in his column?

(I don’t want to see that. I don’t.)

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Jul 3, 2008 11:01 AM EDT up 0 recs

the best part

when dusty’s son isn’t available to play bat boy, we’ll already have a four-footer in an oversized uniform on the 25 man roster to keep things cute

by jacob brumfield on Jul 3, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up 0 recs

too bad griffey won't be around

for him to insult.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Jul 3, 2008 12:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

I dunno

“Not a whole lot of good choices”? Really?

If you move Phillips…
Orlando Hudson hits as well as Phillips, and is generally considered the best defensive 2B in baseball.
We’ve duscussed Mark Ellis.

If you don’t/can’t…
Rafael Furcal might be available for less than you think, since he’s been hurt all year (and everyone exept the Dodgers thought he was hideously overpaid in his last contract).

There’s three “good choices” right there.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Jul 3, 2008 1:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

good choices...

just not for the Reds.

Hudson is looking to be the highest paid second baseman and he has said he wants a long term deal. Ellis, as stated, wants to stay home. Furcal is decent but not for the dough he’ll still comand.

Hudson would be great to have(imagine the DP combo with BPhil!), but we are going to need money to lock up Votto/Volquez/Cueto/Bruce down the road. I would love to see Castellini out bid the large-market teams, but I just don’t see it happening. I think our better alternatives are to run Freel and Kepp out at 2nd w/Phillips at shortstop or trade a reliever (Affeldt, Weathers) for a promising young 2B or SS.

by jacob brumfield on Jul 3, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don't see the connection

Votto, Cueto, and Bruce are 5 years away from free agency; Volquez is 3 years away (after this year). As of right now, the Reds have contracts committed to only two people – Cordero and Phillips – for ‘11 (plus $4M total buyout for Harang and Arroyo, one of whom will still be here by then). In other words, only 2 (possilby 3) guys will still be on the books by the time any of the first 3 are even arb-eligible, and all they’re on the hook for right now is a total of $2M in buyouts to BP and Cordero before Volquez becomes a FA. So contract status should have nothing to do with the decision.

Meanwhile, only Krivsky would trade Affeldt or Weathers for a “promising young 2B or SS”, especially since either can be had for free after the season.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Jul 3, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

Jeff Kent seems right up Dustyevski's alley

If Dusty had his way

Copat CF
Hairstunned ss
Griffey rf
Kent 1b
BP 2b
Kepp 3b
Bruce LF
Bako C

Good line up to play the game the ‘right way’...no relying on the long ball. Lets ‘manufacture ’ runs.

"When I got my award, I just wore my usual stuff," Dunn said.
"Was it for the Reds organization or all of baseball?" Bruce said.

by Madville on Jul 3, 2008 12:32 PM EDT 0 recs

How about..

JJ Hardy? Heard he could be available in a trade with Escobar behind him. He is a very solid defender and also has some pop in his bat. It could take a three way deal to get him but I see no reason why we couldn’t jump into a 3-way deal with Cle and Mil.

by kennythered on Jul 4, 2008 1:58 AM EDT 0 recs