Team MEMO: Stop attempting stolen bases
by Blue on Jul 19, 2008 12:34 AM EDT
27 comments
One stat often overlooked when analyzing the Reds offense is how many times they've been caught stealing. Here are some facts...
Reds stats (Rank)
SB - 61 (8th)
CS - 31 (2nd most)
SB% - .66 (15th)
- The only NL team with more CS than the Reds (31) is Houston (32). Houston has 23 more SB than the Reds.
- The only NL team with a lower SB% than the Reds (66.3%) is Arizona (66.0%). Arizona has attempted 45 fewer steals than the Reds. (SABR guys will tell you that it takes a success rate of 75% for an attempt to be worth the risk.)
The bottom line is, guys are trying to steal bases who have no business trying to. Now, I think I know who is responsible for this, but I shall let him remain nameless.
I propose a few new team rules:
1. If your name isn't Brandon Phillips (19 SB/4 CS, 83%) or Jerry Hairston, Jr. (15 SB/3 CS, 83%), you are not allowed to attempt a steal unless the pitcher forgets what he's doing and goes from the full windup.
2. If you are the manager, you are not allowed to give the third base coach the steal sign unless the runner on first base is named Brandon Phillips (19 SB/4 CS, 83%) or Jerry Hairston, Jr. (15 SB/3 CS, 83%).
3. If you are the third base coach, you are not allowed to relay any steal sign given by the manager to any player who isn't named Brandon Phillips (19 SB/4 CS, 83%) or Jerry Hairston, Jr. (15 SB/3 CS, 83%).
4. If you are the first base coach and see that the third base coach has relayed a steal sign from the manager for anyone who isn't named Brandon Phillips (19 SB/4 CS, 83%) or Jerry Hairston, Jr. (15 SB/3 CS, 83%), you must whisper into the baserunner's ear "don't do it", or shout "HE'S GOING TO STEAL!!!" to encourage the sign to be taken off.
There you go. That's four layers of security to keep your team away from several unnecessary and wasted outs.
Thoughts?
3 recs |
27 comments
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there it goes again...
what’s up with that phrase?
So hey, umm....do you guys mind if I have this fruit roll-up?
by chandrathan on Jul 19, 2008 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think somebody said it was a quote from a popular movie or something?
I’m not sure though.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Jul 19, 2008 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i heard something depressing
Artie Lange claims he gets a check for at least 900 every week from being in old school…
So hey, umm....do you guys mind if I have this fruit roll-up?
by chandrathan on Jul 19, 2008 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BP doesn't get a pass from me
How many times has he been caught trying for 3B against the Dunn shift? Those should count triple.
sig lines are for suckas
by jch24 on Jul 19, 2008 3:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
once, I believe
now curses on you for making me defend BP
It's a lousy night to be an atheist!
by Slyde on Jul 19, 2008 7:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BP gave an awesome interview to Doc on the pregrame before Thursday's game
anyone else hear it?
So hey, umm....do you guys mind if I have this fruit roll-up?
by chandrathan on Jul 19, 2008 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and admit it
it was pretty cool when it happened
sorry…I’ll go off fanboy mode now.
...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield
by Cy Schourek on Jul 19, 2008 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Once, really?
Was it so traumatic that it seems like three to four times? And you know you have a BP height chart poster on your door in the basement., admit it.
sig lines are for suckas
by jch24 on Jul 19, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's more of a length chart
if you know what I mean
It's a lousy night to be an atheist!
by Slyde on Jul 19, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dusty...
...needs to master “The Stare,” like Joe Torre. The one that means, “You have a green light, but if you go, you better be sure.”
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Jul 19, 2008 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dusty wants his team to be scrappy... Unfortunately for him they aren't...
People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.
by crolfer on Jul 19, 2008 12:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hahahahahaha...
Lemme see…
What if it’s Joey Votto on base? Ummm…Steal…? Not steal??
This is so difficult. Kind of like keeping people batting in the right order or having someone warming up in the bullpen when the pitcher on the mound might start melting down.
Hey Dusty...Are you sure you're OK? You might need an MRI.
by Paul Householder on Jul 19, 2008 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I got a hold of this guy, Floyd Del Rio Jones from Christiansburg, Ohio. He's a retired lawnmower repair guy and former baseball coach.
He one of the few remaining Masterbunters alive. Here he is shown explaining his Masterbunting style to a group of teenagers. For a very reasonable fee he’s agreed to come to Cincinnati and work with EdE, Jay, Joey, Dunn and Griffy Jr. However sources tell me that Dusty in not impressed. Quote “These guys are Major Leaguers, they must know how to bunt or they wouldn’t have made it the show”.
My Indian name is "Runs For Beer'
by Madville on Jul 19, 2008 3:10 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
When you can't hit it,
masterbunting is a fine alternative.
by ken on Jul 19, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
That must explain Dave Cone
When you’re a Met there’s no fans at the gate
‘Cause the best thing we’ve seen is Dave Cone...master bunt.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Jul 19, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gone green
That’s good stuff.
sig lines are for suckas
by jch24 on Jul 19, 2008 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
rec'd on "masterbunting style to a group of teenagers" alone ... well done
by joshuar9476 on Jul 19, 2008 3:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Heh.
Reminds me of my high school teacher who once said that Lincoln was a master debater…
Hey Dusty...Are you sure you're OK? You might need an MRI.
by Paul Householder on Jul 19, 2008 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
a kid from my high school went to Bates College
he was known as “master” for all of senior year.
...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield
by Cy Schourek on Jul 19, 2008 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sabermetricians
The break-even success rate for stolen bases is actually up for debate. Linear Weights innovator Pete Palmer set it at around 66-67%. 75% seems to be the upper bound, but a lot of people seem to think it is more around 69-71% and I’ve seen suggestions of 63-64%. I also believe that the breakeven percentage is lower for one or two outs than for no outs.
How many of the CS are on straight-up steal attempts and how many are on failed hit-and-run attempts?
by LooseCannon on Jul 19, 2008 10:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How many are results of a failed Masterbunter?
My Indian name is "Runs For Beer'
by Madville on Jul 20, 2008 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The upper bound depends on the situation
but The Book found that the “any situation” break-even point is 68.7% – but that is the bare minimum success rate and as they say it really should be up over 70% success rate given a general situation. However, if you are looking at the specific situation, the break-even rate varies greatly. For instance, down by two runs in the 7th inning or later? Every situation is at least a 75% BE rate, including a 90% BE rate in 9th inning or later. However, in tie ball games in late innings, the BE rate can drop as low as 60%. Unfortunately, I can’t find the SB breakdown by situation as of yet, but I know for certain there are several cases of attempting steals when down by 4+ runs (pretty much a no-no), though that is admittedly circumstantial evidence.
It's a lousy night to be an atheist!
by Slyde on Jul 20, 2008 7:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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