Ken Rosenthal is insane

by sidnancy on Jul 14, 2008 11:23 AM EDT

Maybe not clinically, but he's lost perspective, I think.

In his latest column, he addresses the Adam Dunn situation. In it, he states the Reds would "take a considerable risk if they fail to trade Dunn, then allow him to become a free agent" because if he accepted arbitration "he likely would receive a salary of at least $15 million."

Why is this a "considerable risk"? Dunn is currently 7th among MLB OFs in OPS. It's kind of tough to compare, because only 8 of the top 20 have signed free-agent contracts, but it's telling:

* JD Drew - $14M this year and next. Will be 33, career 130 OPS+.

* Pat Burrell $14M this year, FA next. 32, 120.

* Jermaine Dye - $9.5M this year, $11.5M next. 35, 112.

* Manny Ramirez - $20M this year, at least that next 37, 154(!).

* Carlos Lee - $12.5M this year, $18.5M next. 33, 116.

* Maglio Ordonez - $15M this year, $19M next. 35, 129.

* Johnny Damon - $13M this year and next. 35, 103.

* Carlos Beltran - $18.5M this year and next. 32, 117.

Now some of those guys are obviously better defensively. But of the guys who've hit as well as Dunn for their career (131 OPS+), Drew is older and a significant injury risk, Manny is significantly older and as bad defensively, and Ordonez is significantly older.

Please, someone, explain to me why one year of Dunn at $15-17M would be a "considerable risk".

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It wouldn't really

In fact, this might be a decent way to go. If you offer him arbitration, and he declines, you get two draft picks. If he accepts, you get the same talented offensive weapon at a reasonable price (as sidnancy has demonstrated) without the hassle of a long term contract. I’d love to see Dunn around for a couple more years, but there’s a good chance that any extension he would want would be at least four years. And there’s also a great chance that by the end of that contract, he’s going to stop being as valuable an asset at the plate.

by Brendanukkah on Jul 14, 2008 11:33 AM EDT 0 recs

4 years on Dunn

His contract would be over before his 33rd Birthday. It all depends on much of a cut he is willing to take for that extra year. A baseball players 32 year is not a bad year to have under contract. Dunn should still be Dunn by then.

by DisplacedFan on Jul 14, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

Maybe, maybe not

You’re right though, that a lot my misgivings stem from what he’d be paid in those final years. I don’t agree that he is overpaid now, but there’s a very good chance that we could be getting into another Griffey situation by the end (not nearly enough production to justify the high cost). It’s a tricky issue, but if a reasonable extension can’t be reached, then I see no harm in offering him arbitration.

by Brendanukkah on Jul 14, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

would you be willing to pay $50 Milliion to Dunn for four years

and expect 3 good years of production?

I think that is resonable in todays market, and I don’t think he will completly fall off the beam. I wouldn’t want him around at a high salary after that, because he seems like somebody who will decay in a hurry, but I think 4 more years is resonable. If Bush can could get 4 more years so can Dunn.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Jul 14, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

correction

i meant to say $65 million.

I did my math based on a 3 year instead of a 4 year contract.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Jul 14, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

four years at 65 million

either front loaded or even-pay per year, and I’d be giddy to see the reds make that deal

So hey, umm....do you guys mind if I have this fruit roll-up?

by chandrathan on Jul 14, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

even with the irrational hatred of Dunn

that is taken as gospel among most baseball douche bags, this makes no sense. a one year deal at 15 mil for a peak season from a bona fide masher is great. i dont want Dunn on a deal longer than 3 years, but if this is the kind of talk floating around about him then perhaps we could sign him to a very team-favorable extension. if it gets to arbitration, then the question is “which is worth more?”, 1 year of market value Dunn or two draft picks? either way, we cant lose. Rosenthal is dumb.

please dont shit on my dreams. i dont want shit on my dreams.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 14, 2008 11:49 AM EDT 0 recs

Dunn at $15m is a very good deal.

Dunn at $20m is still a good deal.
So you lock him up for 4 years and then prorate the entire deal. Say $75m divided by 4 = $18.75 per year. If you could get Dunn for 4 years at $75M – that is.

"When I got my award, I just wore my usual stuff," Dunn said.
"Was it for the Reds organization or all of baseball?" Bruce said.

by Madville on Jul 14, 2008 1:27 PM EDT 0 recs

that's nothing

John Fay included Dunn as part of a “Big Four” of high salaried players who are “struggling” this season, also including Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, and Ken Griffey, Jr. According to Fay, none of these four is “having even a mediocre year”.

Here’s the link to this rubbish:

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2008807130431

FIRE DUSTY BAKER

by Blue on Jul 14, 2008 5:04 PM EDT 0 recs

And the only negatives he has for Dunn

are that his batting average is 40 points below last year, and he has a low batting average with RISP. He just glosses over the team-high OBP and 24 HRs.

In truth there’s one glaring overpaid hole-Griffey-plus an unpredictable (but maybe finally turning it around) Arroyo and a hopefully-not-lost Harang. What a joke of a thesis for an article.

We ain’t no last place team are we Pops ?

by Gray on Jul 14, 2008 5:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

what a joke for a writer

Boobs should have fay’s job. I would love to see boobs everyday in the Enquier.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Jul 14, 2008 5:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

from your mouth to God's ears...

and yeah, this screen name is because of Pete Schoureck. But I only have it because Jacob Brumfield was taken.

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Jul 14, 2008 5:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

let's hug

by jacob brumfield on Jul 14, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think that...

boobs every day in the Enquirer might violate some Cincinnati decency laws.

Hey Dusty...Are you sure you're OK? You might need an MRI.

by Paul Householder on Jul 15, 2008 10:01 AM EDT up 0 recs

Maybe there's another Cincinnati-based publisher

that would be more appropriate.

by ken on Jul 15, 2008 12:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

"But none of the four is even close to the numbers on the backs of their baseball cards."

I haven’t looked at the back of a baseball card in a while, but…

A comparison on Dunn

           162-game average           Current Pace
AVG             .247                      .228
OBP             .381                      .380
SLG             .521                      .538
Runs             102                        78
1B                68                        45
2B                29                        20
HR                40                        46
RBI               96                       100
BB               113                       116
SO               181                       167
SF                 3                         7
GIDP               8                         7

The drop in runs aren’t his fault. The drop in doubles is made up by the increase in HR (same total bases). So, the big issue is the drop in singles. Well, his BABIP this season is just .237, the lowest in his career. And even though is line drive rate is down, his BABIP is still 50 points lower than we would normally expect. Add that 50 points in (as singles) and his batting line becomes .255/.399/.562 and his singles pace goes up to 57. I’d be happy with that season. I guess. Sure wish he’d hit more singles though.

Apathy - I could take it or leave it.

by Slyde on Jul 14, 2008 5:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

we all know that a single is worth more than a walk

because a walk just clogs the bases, where as a single is scrappy.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Jul 14, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

Nice work

I know it’s a bit counterproductive considering his power but I wonder if Dunn couldn’t really help his cause by bunting away from the shift just enough to keep them honest. That is, if he’s a capable bunter of course.

sig lines are for suckas

by jch24 on Jul 14, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

i have thought of that with both Dunn and Griffey

More for the long term, because if teams know that Dunn or Griffey could drop a bunt into no mans land, they will probably not give up the free base, get rid of the shift, and give Dunn and Griffey a few more oppurtunities to get the ball into right field.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Jul 14, 2008 5:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

But if teams take off the Dunn shift

then how will Brandon Phillips constantly try to steal two bases at once?

by Brendanukkah on Jul 14, 2008 5:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

Oh and another thing

Can we get an open thread of some sort for the break? Pretty please with Splenda on top? :)

sig lines are for suckas

by jch24 on Jul 14, 2008 5:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

My response over there, because it's easier than finalizing an article for submission to an academic journal...

What a joke of a thesis for an article. All four are not having subpar seasons, and in fact they have very little in common.
First let’s look at Dunn. He’s leading the team in OBP, sure, but also slugging percentage, by a wide margin. His .538 slugging percentage (not to mention those 26 HRs) compares pretty favourably to Brandon Phillips’s .476 or Encarnacion’s .481. All of this to say: he is well worth the money he makes. Why don’t you get it?

Arroyo has been subpar, sure. But hey, his ERA for his past three starts is 3.18, though his WHIP is still 1.47. Either of these is probably a better measure than his W-L record.

Next there’s Harang. Before that relief appearance he had a 3.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 74.2 innings (last year: 3.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). How is that not in line with his previous performance?

And this leaves us with one real overpaid flop, Griffey. You mention in passing that he always bats third. But you never address the biggest question: why is that?

We ain’t no last place team are we Pops ?

by Gray on Jul 14, 2008 5:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

"Favourably?"

Dude, now no one’s going to take you seriously.

by Brendanukkah on Jul 14, 2008 5:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

Ah, crap.

Firefox has beaten me into submission by spell-checking with the Canadian version recently. Favorably gets underlined, while favourably does not.

We ain’t no last place team are we Pops ?

by Gray on Jul 14, 2008 5:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

I have the Price Hill version

and it lets the word irregaurdless right on through, so don’t feel bad. And nicely written on the Fay thing. I’ll wager a small tropical island that Fay not only doesn’t give a damn, but he probably even called you a dumbass. So, in other words, you are absolutely correct.

"As it says over the door to the Famous Writers' School in Connecticut: A Sullen Drunk Packing A Gat Is Not The Best Company For An Artist Finicky About His Style."

by Pops Daniels on Jul 14, 2008 6:18 PM EDT up 1 recs