The Season hinges on this weekend

by TheC on Jul 11, 2008 12:33 PM EDT Comment 29 comments

The first half of the season has been incredibly frustrating, mostly, because the problems we're used to having - lousy bullpen and no hope for a rotation - aren't the biggest problems, but rather the one thing we could always count on - the offense - has been. In my mind, I had written this team off. The season was over about a month ago or so. Moslty, that is due to my coping mechanisms for dealing with disappointment that won't allow me to get my hopes up too high.

But I am going to try, one more time, to get my hopes up again. And that means this weekend is the most imortant series of the year.

The Milwaukee Brewers are starting to get it together and have now added the services of C.C. Sabathia. They are looking strong. If the season were to end today, the Milwaukee Brewers are your N.L. Wildcard team. The Cincinnati Reds - winners of 5 of their last 7 games - are heading to Milwaukee for the last series before the All Star Break. The Reds currently sit at 44-49 - five games under .500. That puts the Reds 7 games out of the Wildcard spot. If the Reds can take 2 of 3 this weekend, that puts the Reds 6 games back heading to the break. If they win all 3, they are only 4 games back. But if they lose this series... well.. the math here isn't all that complex. You don't me to keep counting on my fingers for you. They'll be in trouble if they lose this series. And then I think you can officially hang it up - look for trades, start developing the youngsters, even play Corey Patterson more.

So this weekend is big. Everytime someone says that, this team seems to go out and underwhelm. I hope this time it will be different. This team seems to have gotten so used to losing the last few years. I don't expect a pennant this year, but learning how to win big games would be a nice first step.

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It's over

I hate to say it, I do. But there is no way we’re catching the Cubs or Brewers this year.

I hope to see improvement and learning from the youngsters and a couple of trades (Ross/Arroyo/Weathers/???) to clear a little more payroll. I'm scared they're not gonna resign Dunn, which would make the offense downright atrocious.

sig lines are for suckas

by jch24 on Jul 11, 2008 12:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow

No idea how I did that.

sig lines are for suckas

by jch24 on Jul 11, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Come on now jch

The 2008 Reds aren’t dead yet. Sure, we’ve lost games because of managerial incompetence. Sure we’ve terribly harmed our opening day starter due to managerial incompetence. Sure, Corey Patterson has played substantially due to managerial incompetence. And sure, the offense has been beyond erratic. However, this team has a hell of a lot more talent than teams of the recent past. And while that might not make it to the playoffs this year, a winning record (remember those?) is certainly not out of the question.

Jeff, we hardly knew ye...

by chesirecat on Jul 11, 2008 1:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

what we're shooting for is a winning record ... and that alone would make me happy

by joshuar9476 on Jul 11, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because that's all that was promised to us, right?

All Bob said at the beginning of the season was that he was bringing winning baseball back to Cincinnati. I’m sorry, but 82-80 doesn’t make the playoffs most of the time. I don’t see what the winning record accomplishes without a playoff berth, except a lower draft pick. Now I’m not saying we should tank to get a top pick, but if we’re going to make a run, why settle for a winning record? That does nothing for me.

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Jul 11, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

yep

"As it says over the door to the Famous Writers' School in Connecticut: A Sullen Drunk Packing A Gat Is Not The Best Company For An Artist Finicky About His Style."

by Pops Daniels on Jul 11, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rec'd

This is my sentiment. I think back to the Halcyon days when Mr. Castellini forst bought the team. We rejoiced, no longer would we be bound by the financial shackles imposed by Crazy Uncle Carl. They’ve spent money alright, with all the foresight and responsibility of the US government. We won’t go down the list of dumbass signings, it’s pointless and angers up the blood.

I agree with Madville that our coaching staff is not what it should be. A novel thing to do would be to steal away another team’s young coaching talent as opposed to going the same “great guy, been with the organization for 136+ seasons” route over and again.

Dusty Baker as manager pissed me off at the time, and I’ve only been vindicated in those feelings thus far. Sure, there was a short period where I tried to talk myself into it but that time has come and gone. Dusty’s incompetence is crippling an already suspect team. Batting Junior third is inexcusable and everyone knows it including Jr. I can’t imagine him not having at least some modicum of guilt about it, and he should have volunteered to be moved down in the order by now. The baserunning is atrocious, and the bullpen management makes me want to cut myself.

Mainly I’m just venting. I’m pissed off. I deserve better than this as a fan and so do every one of you. Hell, even the Tampa Bay DEVIL Rays have figured out how to win. I’m no longer content to see 84 wins and a 2nd or 3rd place finish. I want PLAYOFF baseball, not just winning baseball.

sig lines are for suckas

by jch24 on Jul 11, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

yep

"As it says over the door to the Famous Writers' School in Connecticut: A Sullen Drunk Packing A Gat Is Not The Best Company For An Artist Finicky About His Style."

by Pops Daniels on Jul 11, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure this season is now pretty firmly unhinged.

We ain’t no last place team are we Pops ?

by Gray on Jul 11, 2008 1:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

Last year after 93 games, we were 38-55. (Look Slyde! I’m learning how to use Baseball-Reference.com) This year, despite the offensive woes, we are 44-49. That’s an improvement of 6 games. This team is actually more competitive than last year’s. This is not a bad team. I have to agree with a lot of folks here that it seems like Dusty hurts this team. That’s too bad and its not going to change in the second half. But maybe we’ll get a few breaks along the way and some of those double steals at inopportune times will actually work. OK…. I’m grasping here. But I would take 82 wins this year. I would be more despondant at season’s end if I felt like this team wasn’t getting any better. An above .500 record would be an improvement.

The season doesn't start until the Cincinnati Reds take the field! Reclaim The Opener!!

by TheC on Jul 11, 2008 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I’m with this line of thinking.

by Brendanukkah on Jul 11, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this is what i was thinking

i mean, few of us here at the beginning of the season really thought this team had a legit shot at the World Series (i just spent half an hour searching the RR library for that thread where we all predicted how the year would go and apparently we never did one about the Reds record. maybe we did. whatevs). but really, an 80-win season sounds about right for this team. but i guess the frustration comes from watching Dusty purposefully do obvious things to hurt the team. all the dumb double steals, sac bunting with our best sluggers, leading off with Corey Patterson for 2 months solid, mishandling a good bullpen, batting Jr 3rd, batting Dunn 6th or 7th, sitting Bruce so Hairston can play, and so on and so on and so on. this team is a ~.500 team, but im angry because with some sharp management and a little common sense, this team could be better. certainly not World Series-caliber, but better enough that we wouldnt have good, decent, intelligent fans throwing in the towel before the All-Star break.

please dont shit on my dreams. i dont want shit on my dreams.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 11, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't get me wrong

I want this team to improve. I just want the improvement to be due to the development of the young players not the bouncing back of guys who won’t be here. I want Patterson DFA’d and Weathers, Arroyo, & Ross/Valentin traded for whatever we can get (preferably a young OF or SS prospect but good luck there). I don’t want to see Josh Fogg or Matt Belisle get another start, let Homer struggle some or see what Maloney has to offer.

My biggest fear is that I’ll shift from being frustrated by the Reds to simply not giving a shit anymore.

sig lines are for suckas

by jch24 on Jul 11, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Holy Crap

You’ve given me a flash of insight. Seriously.

I was never a prolific poster on this iste, but I was at least fairly regular. I haven’t had much to say for a while now. I thought that other things, life things, were keeping me away. But now I realize that I might be in the process of subconciously shifting from being frustrated to simply not giving a shit anymore. And I’m a guy who saw his first game at Riverfront in 1978. I was at the first two games of the 1990 World Series for chrissakes.

Suddenly I’m very sad.

by ctnyc on Jul 16, 2008 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I more fine with jch's rant

But I’m not ready to give up entirely on this team. It does seem transparently obvious that a lot of mistakes have been made by Dusty and crew. But it is also obvious that the 2008 Reds aren’t the BRM. I can only hope that Jr. DOES decide that it would be in the best interest of winning to move down in the order. He’s got to know that moving to RF was a plus for him and the team, maybe he’ll recognize that moving down will be equally as productive. Maybe over the break Dusty will take some time and reivew some of his successes, like batting Dunn in the no. 2 batter’s spot in the lineup AND BECOME INSPIRIED.

But we will need an exceptional 2nd half from the young starters – a lot to hope for
Continued decent outings by Bronson – very possible
A return of the real Aaron Haranh – Very questionable at this point.
More of the recent David Ross – Possible
Griffey needs to have more time off – Doubful
Bruce needs to crank it up again – reasonable
Kepp and Jerry Jr. remain steady – Probable
Votto to continue to improve – very probable
BP to well be BP – He will
Dunn to continue being Dunn – unquestionable
EdE to emerge as a force – Only needs to play – Everyday – Dusty can make or break EdE.
Bullpen stay strong – Probable
A trade of Copat, Weathers, young prospects for a RH bat off the bench – I’m dreaming

IF most of the above happens and Dusty Baker can more good decisions that bad (highly improbable) then there’s an outside chance that this team could be in the thick of it when September rolls around.
However the loss of a Harang, has been and will continue to be (he he doesn’t return to form) very devastating.
Harang could win 10 games in the 2nd half.
Volquez – 8
Cueto – 7
Bronson – 6
Fogg/Thompson/Bailey – 5
BullPen – 5

that’s 41 wins = 85 for the season – Is it doable?

So where will the wins come from if we are to compete in part 2 of the 2008 eason?

WITHOUT THIS GUY METHINKS WE’RE IN DEEP POOP.

"When I got my award, I just wore my usual stuff," Dunn said.
"Was it for the Reds organization or all of baseball?" Bruce said.

by Madville on Jul 11, 2008 4:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmmmm... now you've got me thinking

It was better when I wasn’t being very rational about it. Listen… I am fully expecting the Reds to disappoint me here. I could see us getting swept this weekend and then this whole conversation is for not. The Brewers are hot now and feeling good about themselves after the Sabathia trade. We would really pull of a coup to take this series.

Going forward, thinking about your list gives me a stomach ache and a head ache. Can we get 10 wins out of Harang – and that’s, of course, assuming he even comes back healthy this year? I can see 8 out of Volquez and maybe even 7 out of Cueto. It seems like Johnny C is pitching better lately. But I don’t know about 5 from the fifth starter. Bailey’s start Sunday will be huge for a lot of reasons.

The season doesn't start until the Cincinnati Reds take the field! Reclaim The Opener!!

by TheC on Jul 11, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dusty is playing for draft picks

He’s thinking about the future!

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jul 11, 2008 5:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well we won tonight with Fogg etc... so that's 1. - 40 more to go

"When I got my award, I just wore my usual stuff," Dunn said.
"Was it for the Reds organization or all of baseball?" Bruce said.

by Madville on Jul 11, 2008 11:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

Let’s sweep these Brewers, and drum up some excitement going into the break. Time to step up, Homer.

I got 99 problems but a job ain't one.

by chesirecat on Jul 12, 2008 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just heard on the new that Leather pants and Jose are being investigated

by the FBI for improprieties in signing Dominican players. Jimbo may have been skimming some of the bonus money. What a class act.

"When I got my award, I just wore my usual stuff," Dunn said.
"Was it for the Reds organization or all of baseball?" Bruce said.

by Madville on Jul 11, 2008 11:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pretty good

So, we finish up the first half by taking 4 straight from the Nationals, and then going .500 on the road against 2 of the 3 best teams in the NL.

I think that’s pretty good, isn’t it?

It’s pretty rare that a team as bad as the Reds were last year becomes a playoff team the next year. (Slyde? 1991?) Despite the little things, where Dusty has cost us a few runs here or there, maybe even a game or two (plus whatever damage Corey Patterson has done), the team is getting better. And that’s a good thing.

Back in May my friend (a White Sox fan) called it: 2010 W.S.: Reds vs. Rays.

It could happen.

by bbjones on Jul 13, 2008 5:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You have to go all the way back to 2006

Detroit won 71 games in 2005 and then 95 in 2006.

Apathy - I could take it or leave it.

by Slyde on Jul 13, 2008 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2006 is like 1991

sorta.

still and all, that’s 60 team-seasons. That’s the ticket.

by bbjones on Jul 13, 2008 8:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Uh - Oh you're beginning to sound an awful lot like me...

I don’t think room for another partially incomprehensible yet passionate RR on this blog.
2006 and 60 team seasons = I drink only on bowling nights except when of course I don’t.

"When I got my award, I just wore my usual stuff," Dunn said.
"Was it for the Reds organization or all of baseball?" Bruce said.

by Madville on Jul 13, 2008 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and on days

ending in y.

All right, forget that part. I was wrong—turnarounds are not THAT uncommon.

But the team IS getting better. And that IS a good thing. And I’ll take a .500 or better season this year, serious contention next year, and a good post-season run in 2010 over the last 8 years.

by bbjones on Jul 14, 2008 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm incomprehensible and passionate

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Jul 14, 2008 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Sorry...00700

You are incompressible and passionate.
I’m vague and pissed off.
2 out of 3 from the Brew Crew = 1
should, coulda, woulda been 3 out of 3 with alittle help from our manager.
IMO the Reds only need 39 more wins to be in contention for the wild card.
I will take a .500 season if it means that Dustyevski goes away…but its sorta like a mediocre player having a great year and then getting signed to an expensive multi-year deal. We are damned if the Reds do well (despite their staff) and damned if they suck.
Ergo – the glass is neither half full or half empty – I just drank the whole thing!!!!