Farmers only: Stubbs and Mesoraco get their thangs on

by Rick House on Jul 11, 2008 1:48 AM EDT in News

All in all, a nice day for our No. 1 picks from 2006 and 2007.

Stubbs

Triple-A: The Bats scraped together a couple runs and shut out Buffalo. Adam Pettyjohn scattered six hits to get his first win in more than a month. Shaun Cumberland doubled and scored in his first start for Louisville.

Double-A: In his first game for Chattanooga, Drew Stubbs went 4 for 5 in the Lookouts' 9-8 loss. Stubbs doubled and scored a run and now leads the team with a very sustainable .800 batting average. He was hitting only .261 in Sarasota with a disappointing .406 slugging percentage, although he maintained a respectable .366 OBP. But if he puts up an .800/.800/1.000/1.800 line in the majors, that should be good enough to start in center. Justin Turner and Danny Dorn added 2 hits apiece.

Mesoraco

High A: Alexander Smit struck out 8 in 7 innings but took the loss as Sarasota fell 3-1. The Reds managed just 3 hits.

Low A: Devin Mesoraco's grand slam highlighted his 1-for-4 day as Dayton won 5-2. It was only Mesoraco's 4th homer on the year. In the Dayton Daily News story, Mesoraco acknowledges he's been swinging at bad pitches of late. "I've been trying to relax," he says. Kyle Lotzkar went 5 shutout innings, striking out 7 and walking 2. He's still 18 and kind of totally awesome. He should be our next stud throwing prospect.

Rookies: Billings lost 7-5. ... Alexis Oliveras had 4 of the G-Reds' 15 hits in a 7-3 win over the Red Sox. Evan Hildebrandt gave up a couple earned runs. BTW, I'm nicknaming Yen-Wen Kuo "Stat". ... The Dominican Reds scored 10 in the first and won 19-5. They did that without a home run all game.

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seems like a nice day

this is what I like to wake up to in the morning. Well, among other things. But its a good start.

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Jul 11, 2008 9:11 AM EDT reply actions

The grand slam was the highlight of his 1 for 4 day?

well, if you say so.

Also, if anyone is in the vicinity of NC this weekend, I’ll be burning two pure white oxen and pouring libations in hopes of Drew Stubbs be major league ready next Spring Training. Bring your gold mixing bowls.

He's doing it. He's eating a tire!

by Man Mountain on Jul 11, 2008 9:51 AM EDT reply actions

You should invite the witch that Cherry is paying.

Don’t invite the catcher witch, though. Her magic seems to wear off about 1/3 of the way through the season.

Hey Dusty...Are you sure you're OK? You might need an MRI.

by Paul Householder on Jul 11, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions

They don't even know it's comin'

Michael: Now, the soldiers are paid to fight; the rebels aren't. Roth: What does that tell you? Michael: They can win.

by havanaconnect on Jul 11, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions

C. Trent has some interesting Dunn tidbits on his blog

Link here

As he notes, fielding metrics are far from exact or authoritative, but what are they saying about Adam Dunn?

My eyes told me Adam Dunn, despite a bad error on Wednesday, had been much better defensively this season. But I was curious. So, I went to Baseball Prospectus and looked up his fielding numbers.
What I saw there surprised me. They surprised me so much that I emailed Will Carroll and Joe Sheehan, two of the sites excellent baseball thinkers and writers, and asked if my interpretation of the numbers were correct. Basically, I said, “is it just me or do these numbers say that Adam Dunn has been slightly above average this season defensively.”

The response from Joe:

“That interpretation is correct.”

Adam Dunn is still no slouch on the offensive side of things either. C. Trent notes in a bit of a throwaway:

The magic bullet Joe refers to, VORP, is purely an offensive statistic - it’s Value Over Replacement Player. Yesterday, Dunn was leading that category for the Reds with a 21.7 - just a smidge over Brandon Phillips’ 21.6.

And to drive the point home, C. Trent notes that Dunn’s home run yesterday went 485 according to Hit-Tracker, which makes it the longest home run of the season. I caught the replay of it on Baseball Tonight – what a thing of beauty!

We also need to rain on shortstop’s parade for a minute. The wind was definitely blowing out at Wrigley yesterday, and many of the homeruns we hit were wind-aided. The dingers by Phillips, Votto, and yes, both of Ross’s would have been home runs in 0 other parks.

by Brendanukkah on Jul 11, 2008 11:56 AM EDT reply actions

Dunn's HR

The BBTN guys had a great observation: the people on the roof of the building across the street stood up, thinking they had a chance to catch it. He killed that thing.

sig lines are for suckas

by jch24 on Jul 11, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Pretty impressive.

For all of the haters that have knocked Dunn and his defense all season, this is pretty refreshing to see, especially from a media guy. Props to CTR for bringing this to the public.

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Jul 11, 2008 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Another Dunn article

Fangraphs.com has an article up about Dunn. Basically, it says the same stuff that most of us already know – Dunn is good, people that hate him are stupid, blah blah.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/looking-at-what-dunn-has-done

by D-Rock on Jul 11, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Surprised they didn't mention it in the article

but Dunn also leads the Reds hitters in WPA. Then again, that WPA is only good for 30th in the Majors, so it’s nothing to brag about. Damn this offense sucks.

I want a hamburger. No, a cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake. I want potato chips...

by Slyde on Jul 11, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought his season wasn't even mediocre

Are you telling me that John Fay is wrong? Poppycock!

I want a hamburger. No, a cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake. I want potato chips...

by Slyde on Jul 11, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

BP's defensive metrics

seem very unreliable.

http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/10/player-value-part-3a-fielding.html

Suggested reading for anyone looking into calculating any type of defensive numbers.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com and http://www.RedsPitchFX.com

by dougdirt on Jul 11, 2008 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

Though to Sheehan’s credit, he pointed this out to Trent: Note, however, that zone-based stats are more robust tools for measuring defense. FRAA and the like are ratings derived from the basic stats.

The problem is that most of the newer stats aren’t publicly available, or only sporadically available. I’m surprised that BPro continues to not publish defensive stats based on zone and play-by-play data.

The one that is publicly available is The Hardball Times’ RZR, which rates Dunn fourth out of the eight qualifying NL LFs. Dunn has fewer out of zone plays than all but one of the eight, however.

by ken on Jul 11, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

FWIW

Justin’s method has Dunn at -2.1 RAR on fielding and 25.7 RAR hitting for a total value of 23.6, if I used his calculations properly. I think Phillips is still the highest rated Red with 19.0 RAR on offense and 6.2 RAR on defense for 25.2 total. I think Votto is 2nd at 17.1 RAR hitting and 7.6 RAR defensively (though I have my doubts on the accuracy of that number, I think something is miscalculated on 1B) for a total of 24.7.

I want a hamburger. No, a cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake. I want potato chips...

by Slyde on Jul 11, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

BTW

that was all on offense…I didn’t calculate pitchers, but I’m fairly certain Volquez is the highest rated Red.

I want a hamburger. No, a cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake. I want potato chips...

by Slyde on Jul 11, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Too lazy to look this up

Is there a RAA in Justin’s system as well, or is replacement the only baseline?

Votto’s number sounds high but MGL’s ratings were also very bullish. He does seem to have very good range, and his weaknesses (pickin’ and getting the ball to a pitcher covering first) don’t show up in these ratings, I believe.

by ken on Jul 11, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Defensively RAA and RAR are the same thing

according to Tango and therefore Justin. :)

I want a hamburger. No, a cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake. I want potato chips...

by Slyde on Jul 11, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions

That makes sense

I never understood why you’d set two baselines for defense, when replacement level subs are just as good or even better fielders than the average starter.

by ken on Jul 11, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

You left out C Trent's best zinger:

An awesome story from Louisville’s C.L. Brown on Chris Dickerson helping the Bats go green. It was in that paper yesterday, and in honor of that, the Enquirer went Green today and recycled stories from Louisville and Columbus instead of producing new content for their front page. Good work.

by ken on Jul 11, 2008 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions