Reds' Prospects: Deal or No Deal
While watching A.J. Burnett pitch this afternoon, I had an interesting thought pop into my head; would I be happy with Homer Bailey if he became AJ Burnett? If I could guarantee that Homer became a 25-start-a-year guy who approximates a #2 when healthy, would I cash in any further upside he has?
Then, I started extending it to the Reds' other young players. What kind of career would you have to guarantee to make me cash in any further upside? I thought this would be a game that the rest of the board would find interesting. The question is, would you cash in the upside that the prospect has in order to guarantee the established player's career (Deal)? Or would you prefer to go with what the young guy gives you for his career, thinking that the upside of the young player outweighs the guarantee of the established guy's production (No Deal)?
Homer Bailey - AJ Burnett - A 25-start-a-year guy who is a solid #2 when healthy.
Johnny Cueto - Tom Gordon - Several years as a league-average starter, followed by a long career as a very good short reliever.
Jay Bruce - Jim Edmonds - 15 years as a 130 OPS+ guy, but only 5 seasons with 30+ HR, only 4 with 100+ RBI, and only 4 with 100+ Runs. Textbook "Hall of Very Good" guy.
Joey Votto - Eric Chavez - Several 30-100 seasons at his peak, but finished as a productive player by age 30.
Edinson Volquez - Jack McDowell - Several years of good, consistent production, contends for a Cy Young or two, done by age 30.
My initial answers would be Deal on Bailey and Volquez, No Deal on Cueto, Bruce and Votto.
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28 comments
Comments
Gut reactions
Bailey: Deal
Cueto: No Deal
Bruce: Deal, if we can give Bruce slightly higher offensive numbers to account for Edmonds’s better defense.
Votto: No Deal
Volquez: No Deal
Volquez is 25. I don’t think he’s done by age 30. Cueto ought to be a starter for awhile, and he’ll be a lot better than league average.
by Brendanukkah on Jun 7, 2008 2:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
bailey's the onloy one of those i would make a deal on
mostly because i think aj burnett is his ceiling right now.
I would have made the cueto deal last year, but after seeing how electric his stuff is, i actually think he’s going to improve a lot and maybe even challenge colquez for staff ace a couple years.
No way i sacrifice a possible ke griffey jr. for jim edmonds. bruse just makes such good contact that i think his minor league numbers will translate almost 1:1 into the majors. And as pitchers get more leery of him, he will draw more walks and drive that on-base percentage up. he has extraordinary power when he gets his line drives up, so I can see him turning out more like 10 30 HR seasons. He’s the last guy for whom i would sacrifice ceiling.
Im tempted to say deal on Votto, but your scenario has him being finished by age 30. that would only give him 5 or 6 more years of production, which is hard to swallow. if you mean eric chavez in length of career rather than age (chavez started in the majors when he was 20), then I might say deal.
i worry that volquez will be more fernando valenzuela than pedro martinez, but it’s just too exciting to think of the latter to give up for a guy who’s similar to Bronson Arroyo. In fact, I think Valenzuela should be the deal, who’s more comparable early and had a much better career than mcdowell.
By the way, for those who haven’t looked, guess what Volquez’s ERA+ is. No cheating.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 7, 2008 3:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i really need to start using the preview button
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 7, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His Raw ERA is 1.32
ERA+ is his ERA expressed as a percentage of league average, adjusted for park and league. The Modern single season ERA+ record is Pedro Martinez’s 291 in 2000; he had a 1.74 ERA when the league average was 5.07.
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey
by BLee2525 on Jun 7, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah but i didnt ask what it was
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 7, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's what it was before his last start
I just checked to see what it is now. Pretty good for a batting average.
by Brendanukkah on Jun 7, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
would lead our team
among qualifiers, that is
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 7, 2008 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mcdowell similar to arroyo
he played in a rock band, too! i think it was the same kind of music, if i remember correctly.
by Daedalus on Jun 7, 2008 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
I’m with boobs. Deal on Bailey, because I think he needs an MRI.
No deal on the rest, except for maybe Votto (if only because we have Alonso on the way).
Jay Bruce could be so much better than Jim Edmonds. Plus, Jim Edmonds is a jerk.
Cueto and Volquez could be truly great.
Hey Dusty...Are you sure you're OK? You might need an MRI.
by Paul Householder on Jun 7, 2008 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Deal Cueto, maybe Votto
based on your assumptions. I think Cueto can do better than Flash as a starter, but if a crystal ball told he wouldn’t I’d trade while his perceived value was high. Same for Votto. I think Homer’s stock has fallen enough we wouldn’t be able to get the value of a solid no. 2 starter, so keep him.
by ken on Jun 7, 2008 4:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i dont think you've mastered the premise of this excercise...
i think the tradeouts blee is offering are givens. That is, a mystical GM is offering you a.j. burnett’s career for homer bailey’s future, no questions asked.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 7, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ken gets an F in reading comprehension
Reverse may answers, I guess.
by ken on Jun 7, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
by Daedalus on Jun 7, 2008 4:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

"God has blessed me and I will continue to do my best for him. This is more important than anything I could do in baseball." -Albert Pujols
by shortstopv2 on Jun 7, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does the Cueto deal...
...include puking in the bullpen during big games, and getting his name in the title of a Stephen King book?
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Jun 7, 2008 4:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Deal on Bailey.
No deal on the others. Hey, where are the pretty models that are supposed to come with this game?
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 7, 2008 8:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bruce:
HELL NO. Jim Edmonds is the devil. He’s a dumbass. He’s a stupid moron who is an overrated fielder and only makes these “great” plays because he waits 5 seconds to start for the ball.
And he isn’t that great of a hitter either…
People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.
by crolfer on Jun 7, 2008 11:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
somebody forget their medication?
The Dusty Path to the World Series!*
*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.
by justin007000 on Jun 8, 2008 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow. This is going to sound very contrarian.
Bailey: No deal. Four seasons with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title; 110 career OPS+. Unless I’m missing something, Bailey should be worth alot more than that.
Cueto: No Deal. Gordon, as a starter, was never much better than league-average; while great as a reliever, those guys are much more hit-or-miss.
Bruce: Deal. Edmonds was/is more than “Hall of Very Good”; he’s Larry Walker (whom Bruce is often compared to) with an uglier decline. You also don’t mention his 8 Gold Gloves in CF. I don’t care who it is, if you trade a borderline HOF career for a guy with 3 weeks in the majors, do it.
Votto: Tougher choice, but still I’d deal if the career length was the same. Again, you don’t mention Chavez’s 6 GGs (compared to Votto’s “adventurous” defense), so unless he hits better than he has so far, Chavez’s career is more valuable.
Volquez: No deal (I’ve changed my mind twice here). Volquez has shown me enough to think he’ll have a longer peak than McDowell. Pitchers’ arms are always a worry, but I’d take the risk.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
by sidnancy on Jun 9, 2008 11:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
thats the most negative losing mentality I ever have heard a Reds fan say about our awesome young prospects, whats your life compare to…. I project that your not cool and your life isnt fun
Brent Jonathan Beck
by Brent Beck on Jun 10, 2008 7:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
your retarded
When it comes to Phil Mickelson...Marty's not a fan.
by chandrathan on Jun 11, 2008 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he doesn't get it
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Jun 11, 2008 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
dude's user profile page is a CV
apparently he means business
If you don't get a good-night kiss, you get Kafka dreams.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 11, 2008 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously, the word "hypothetical" is not in your vocabulary.
I project that you’re [sic] next post will contain a grammatical or spelling mistake.
Hey Dusty...Are you sure you're OK? You might need an MRI.
by Paul Householder on Jun 11, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs





















