2012 Lineup???

by Colts Homer on Jun 5, 2008 11:41 PM EDT Comment 33 comments

Baseball America always does future lineups, and I find it interesting to see which prospects they think will be starters in the future. Since the draft was today, I am going to pump out mine. Note that this is pretty much expecting no free agent or trade additions, which is a ridiculous notion. It is still fun to look into the future.

C: Devin Mesoraco-He's a catcher who can actually run the bases. He's a five tool catcher, a huge rarity.
1B: Yonder Alonso-2012 will be his rookie year. He should have had a successful minor league career with his great batting. Fielding...well, good thing he's a first baseman.
2B: Jeff Keppinger-With Paul Janish improving, he switches positions. He has experience at 2nd with the Mets, so it isn't a drastic change for him. He's more of a batter than a fielder anyways.
3B: Todd Frazier-Tough one, but Frazier tore up the Pioneer league as a rookie, so much so that he moved up to single A at the end of the season. He doesn't have a lot of power, though.
SS: Paul Janish-Great fielder and a clutch hitter. What more can you want?
LF: Joey Votto-He played left field for 40 games in AAA. He will help give the Reds one of the best outfields in baseball with his power hitting.
CF: Drew Stubbs-A speedy hitter who can be a great leadoff man if he can cut back on the Ks.
RF: Jay Bruce-By 2012, he will be an MVP winner. Mark my words. He will win an MVP by 2012. He's just that damn good.

Batting Order
1. Stubbs
2. Keppinger
3. Votto
4. Bruce
5. Alonso
6. Janish
7. Mesoraco
8. Frazier
9. Pitcher

Rotation
1. Edinson Volquez-He's going to win the Cy Young in his first year with the Reds. He'll be the next Pedro without the dwarf kid.
2. Johnny Cueto-Hopefully he can cut back on his earned runs. Everything else is there.
3. Homer Bailey-Bailey is a beast. Plain and simple.
4. Aaron Harang-Harang gets no run support. That has annoyed me all season.
5. Matt Maloney-Maloney is pretty good for a 5 pitcher. He can also bat fairly well.

Closer: Josh Roenicke-He's been doing pretty well after his horrible Pioneer league season in 2006.

So, what you say?

0 recs | Comment 33 comments

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Comments

Alonso coming sooner

Yonder will be 25 in 2012. I certainly hope it won’t be his rookie year. He could conceivably make an impact next year.

Also even though they’re going to be our big boppers I doubt we see the three lefties bat consecutively.

by Red Menace on Jun 6, 2008 12:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by the way

interesting trade proposal

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Jun 6, 2008 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

/makes finger pyramid, nods

I made a similar offer for Utley.

I think this diary is looking too far in the future. A lot can change in four years. I’m really excited about 2009 and there’ll be a lot of changes we can speculate about.

by Red Menace on Jun 6, 2008 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

extends arms, cracks knuckles

I’ll have to sleep on this one. I’ll let you know in the am when I am supposed to be working

2009 I think will be a big year for the Reds.

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Jun 6, 2008 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm starting to think

2009 will be the biggest clusterf* of all. Dunn isn’t here and we’ll need better players at C, 3B, SS, LF, and CF. That’s a lot of changes to make between now and then.

FIRE DUSTY BAKER

by Blue on Jun 6, 2008 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe I'm crazy

But what if Yonder can play first in ‘09. That solves LF with Votto. And what if Edwin can improve at 3B. I think we could put something together at short when everyone gets healthy. CF and C and big problems.

by Red Menace on Jun 6, 2008 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually

Looking at the recent history of top 10 college hitters, Yonder in 09 is too optimistic. 2010 will probably be his debut.

by Red Menace on Jun 6, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

give him the wagner treatment

and bring him up once griffey is traded

When it comes to Phil Mickelson...Marty's not a fan.

by chandrathan on Jun 6, 2008 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Was he best available

I really would have seen them take an outfielder

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Jun 6, 2008 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you got to think the reds

were thinking joey votto is eventually a LF and that why they took the 1st baseman

"God has blessed me and I will continue to do my best for him. This is more important than anything I could do in baseball." -Albert Pujols

by shortstopv2 on Jun 6, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe smoak was better

but there were no outfielders who are as polished hitters as either of them

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Jun 7, 2008 3:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

janish

I have not been impressed with the young man yet. Been decent enough at the plate but his fielding leaves a little to be desired.

I would hope Alonso gets here quicker than 2012. I will be in my second season of retirement so that seems kind of far away right now.

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Jun 6, 2008 12:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No.

The outfield, catcher, and first base, I like. The other three infield spots are probably all wrong, IMO.

2B – Can Keppinger stay healthy? Also, how does Keppinger get the nod over Brandon Phillips? BP hit 30-30 last year, and plays gold glove defense. He’s beloved in Cincinnati, and still relatively young. He’ll still be a productive major leaguer in 2012.
I’d replace this with BP, and if for some reason he’s not around, Justin Turner, who’s been hitting well this year in Sarasota and is now in Chattanooga or Neftali Soto, who’s still a long way away but hit well in the GCL. He’s only 19, so he’s got plenty of time to develop.

SS – Janish? Yawn. I think he’s a terrific defensive player, but he hasn’t shown he can hit consistently in the big leagues yet. He’s never been projected as a starting SS, and I don’t see how that speculation would start now. He’s had a few clutch hits in his short tenure with the big club, but that does not make him a clutch hitter. I’d replace this pick with Chris Valaika or Zack Cozart, depending on their progression offensively and if they can stay at the SS position defensively.

3B – I don’t mind Frazier, but I think Edwin deserves some consideration there. He’s still young and improving, and could be a good RH bat in this lineup for years to come. Another guy to consider is Brandon Waring, who’s torn up everywhere he’s been so far.

The rotation is solid, except for Maloney at 5. 4 years from now, there will be lots of talent coming up that surpass the relatively average Maloney. No Daryl Thompson? Jordan Smith? Travis Wood? I’d put all three of them over Maloney.

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Jun 6, 2008 12:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

2B, 3B

I’d lock Phillips up for a few seasons and I still have great hope for EdE

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Jun 6, 2008 12:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yonder?

Um, does anyone have opinion on the signability of this guy? I’ve been out of town the last couple of days, and all I’ve read is that he wants $8mil to sign and a major league contract.

If that’s the case, was this a throwaway pick, a la Jeremy Sowers. I suppose it’s in the realm of possibility with all the contracts they’ve been eating lately…

by bobestes on Jun 6, 2008 12:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can't imagine Big Bob would do that to us

Does anyone know what the suggested slot money is, or what it was last year? The Reds record bonus was 2.5 million for Chris Gruler, but that was years ago and Uncle Carl was pinching his bananas at the time.

by Red Menace on Jun 6, 2008 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think we have to trust Bob and Walt with that one.

Especially with no other picks until the 3rd round, I would think that they’d have taken the signability into account and made the first round pick count. I can’t imagine the backlash if the first pick they signed was the 84th overall.

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Jun 6, 2008 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno.

1. Keppinger will be 32 by then. Given his difficulties at SS now, I’m not convinced he’ll be able to handle 2B in 4 more years.

2. Harang will be a free agent in either ‘10 (if we decline the option) or ‘11. He’ll be on the wrong side of his career signed to a long, expensive contract in ‘12. I would hope the Reds have better options.

3. Stubbs is 23 and not exactly killing high-A ball. If he’s with the Reds in ‘12, he better be Darin Erstad defensively, because that’s the only way he’ll have value.

4. If Janish is the answer at SS in ‘12, you’re asking the wrong question. He’s Juan Castro.

5. Can Frazier play 2B (he’s played everywhere but, it seems)? If so, I think EdE will still be a very good 3B – he just needs counseling.

Finally, I think drafting Alonso puts the Reds in a very bad position. As others have said, ‘09 could be a great year, but there’s no way they can sign Dunn now and keep Votto – one of them won’t have a position in ‘10. With Jr. gone and no real CF, if Dunn’s gone the outfield will be…who? Fropper? Another year of Patterson? Plus, I know Dunn isn’t exactly Carl Crawford out there but Votto seems to struggle handling 1B; what’s he going to look like in LF?

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Jun 6, 2008 8:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yes

"Glory is upon us, Reds fans! Glory!" ~ F.V. Alan

by Young Lefty on Jun 6, 2008 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i was wondering with the whole OF problem

even though voltron is a stud, i think it may have been short sighted for the reds to trade josh hamilton. the reds were definitely looking to win this year, but it seams to leave us with more questions than answers in ‘10

"God has blessed me and I will continue to do my best for him. This is more important than anything I could do in baseball." -Albert Pujols

by shortstopv2 on Jun 6, 2008 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nah

If Hamilton were here, we’d just be complaining about the lack of pitching.

"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays

by Slyde on Jun 6, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Two things about Hamilton

1. Much as I feared, it’s starting to look like we traded away the league MVP.

2. That being said, Hamilton being here presents two problems:
a. the starting pitching would be atrocious without Volquez
b. Bruce obviously is big-league ready; if Hamilton were still here, where would he play?

So in hindsight, it’s probably not a terrible thing that we traded him. But imagine Dunn/Hamilton/Bruce in the outfield for 5 more years…

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Jun 6, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

drool

"God has blessed me and I will continue to do my best for him. This is more important than anything I could do in baseball." -Albert Pujols

by shortstopv2 on Jun 7, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

id like to put this argument to rest. please.

yes, hamilton might be the AL MVP right now. But Volquez is the NL Cy Young right now. And without writers’ aversion to giving pitchers the MVP award, he’d be a front-runner for that, too. yes, we gave away the most talented offensive player we’ve had in a long time. We also got back the most talented pitcher we’ve had in a long time. It was an even trade. There’s no other way to look at it right now.

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Jun 7, 2008 3:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Come on

Really. Come on.

1. Hamilton “might be” the AL MVP??? Who else would even get a vote right now?

2. Volquez has, no doubt, pitched well. However, Brandon Webb is likely the NL Cy Young right now, and is much more likely than Volquez to continue this level of performance. Volquez has been pretty lucky (his DIPS ERA is more than double his real ERA). As for MVP, there is a long list of guys who are more likely (hell, there are two 2B whose last name starts with a U who are better candidates).

3. Volquez isn’t “the most talented pitcher we’ve had in a long time”; Harang is. Until he can get past the 7th inning, there isn’t even a question (which is another reason he won’t win the Cy Young)

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Jun 9, 2008 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

considering the placement of their respective teams

I think Carlos Quentin might get a few votes for MVP. Outside of the gaudy RBI numbers, Hamilton doesn’t have a whole lot on Quentin right now, and Quentin has had 47 fewer runners on base for him at this point. Other names that might be in play: BJ Upton and Manny Ramirez.

I don’t think Volquez will win the Cy Young, but I think you too easily dismiss him from the conversation. Just because his DIPS ERA is higher than his current ERA doesn’t mean that he is a worse pitcher than Webb. Their DIPS are basically the same (2.98 to 3.06). The only thing Volquez has done worse than Webb is walk more hitters and pitch fewer innings. He’s struck out more, allowed fewer hits (despite having a higher BABIP), and has basically the same HR/9.

His walk rate is killing his DIPS, but I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that Nolan Ryan consistently out-performed his DIPS as well. Not that Volquez is Ryan, but I’d bet that seasons of high walk and strikeout rates, with very low hit and home run rates don’t fit into the DIPS model cleanly.

And any talk of Volquez winning the MVP (by boobs) is silly. He may get a vote or two if the Reds stay competitive (much like Arroyo did in 2006), but they’d have to have an amazing run over the last 2/3rds of the season for him to get serious consideration.

As for Harang vs. Volquez, I would say this. Harang is the best pitcher the Reds have had since Jose Rijo – that includes the combination of talent and refinement. I would say Volquez is more physically talented than Harang, but Harang is a better pitcher. Volquez’s combination of fastball and change up is probably the most talent we’ve seen from a Reds pitcher since maybe Mario Soto – though Rijo’s fastball/slider combo was devastating as well. If Volquez can refine his control and become a pitcher in much the same fashion as Harang, I think he’d be a notch above Harang as a pitcher because his raw skill is a little better. What I’m saying is that he’s a step ahead of Harang at the same point in their careers. Now if he can stay healthy and continue to develop…

"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays

by Slyde on Jun 9, 2008 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno

Hamilton – I think you’re overthinking Quentin. Other than the Chicago voters, he doesn’t have a chance against Hamilton. Hamilton’s BA is 40 points higher, he’s got 34 more total bases already, the stupid RBI total, and he’s doing it while being a pretty good CF. He’s also among league leaders in 21 (of 30) “positive” batting categories that BBRef tracks; Quentin leads Hamilton only in walks, OBP, SB (he’s not among the league leaders in any of these 3), HBP and HR/AB (neither of which willgarner him any votes) – no matter his numbers, no one in his right mind is going to look at him right now and say “Quentin was more valuable than Hamilton”.

Volquez – I don’t disagree with your assessment, but my point was that Webb is more likely to continue pitching as he has (he’s outperforming DIPSby 15%) than is Volquez (a whopping 132%). Plus, Volquez hasn’t pitched “fewer innings” than Webb; he’s pitched about 83% of the innings. Finally, sitting over there in the corner while everyone else is getting all of the attention is Tim Lincecum, and his 2.15 ERA (and DIPS ERA better than either Webb or Volquez). Which all means…Volquez is certainly not the defacto NL Cy Young right now.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Jun 9, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree about Cueto

If he can give up less earned runs, he’ll be in good shape. Same with Fogg.

Bruce Bonser? Boone Bonser? Boot Bonser? BOOSE BONZER?

by Lakeman on Jun 6, 2008 11:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by Daedalus on Jun 6, 2008 6:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

you dont draft high picks only to trade them in baseball

maybe after a few years that guy doesnt fit into your plan, but you dont draft a guy with intentions of getting proven talent right away. that’s a basketball move

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Jun 7, 2008 3:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs