2008 Draft, Open Thread: Reds select Yonder Alonso
by Rick House on Jun 5, 2008 3:22 AM EDT
in Events
214 comments
[Note by Rick House, 06/05/08 12:44 PM EDT ] Edited to add poll. -Rick
It's that time.
The time when each team is reminded how bad they were the previous season by being compensated with picks as terrific as they were terrible and horrific. We were the 7th-worst team in baseball last year, so we're rewarded with our highest pick since 2004, when we took Homer Bailey with the seventh pick. (Bill Bray went 13th in that draft. Not the 13th round; 13th.) This is gonna be a rough sketch of our possible first-round pick at No. 7. Please feel free to post draft news, including late-round selections and profiles, as there are a lot of you who know much more about amateur baseball than me.
Draft essentials
WHEN: 2 p.m. today
WHERE: Lake Buena Vista, Fla.
TV: ESPN2, first two rounds plus compensation picks
In my non-expert opinion, the Reds should be down to Crow, Gordon Beckham, Alonso, Matusz, Lawrie or Posey at this point. The Rays will probably take Posey or Tim Beckham at No. 1, and the Pirates are probably going with Alvarez at No. 2. Kansas City should follow with Hosmer or, if available, Posey. Baltimore is likely looking at Tim Beckham or Matusz, and the Giants will pick up Posey if he's still on the board. If not, they could go with Gordon Beckham or Crow, but the pitchers' stocks seem to be falling. Florida could then take local kid Alonso or go with catching phenom Skipworth. Alonso or Smoak could still be available, and unless Lawrie really wowed the Reds in a private workout on Tuesday, from what I'm reading, I have to think we're most likely to take Yonder Alonso with the 7th pick.
I'd be disappointed if we take Kelly, worried if we take Crow, surprised if we got a crack at Posey and pretty pleased with anyone else. Gordon Beckham doesn't seem to get scouts too thrilled, but he wouldn't be a bad pick. I'm really hoping for Alonso, Posey or Matusz at this point, and since I don't see a way Posey falls all the way to 7, I'm pulling for Yonder.
Profiles and videos after the jump...
| Player | Position | Origination | Video | Bio |
| Pedro Alvarez | 3B | Junior, Vanderbilt University | Pedro Alvarez | Won't fall to us. The Bucs will probably take him at No. 2. Enjoy! Went No. 2 to the Pittsburgh Pirates. |
| Tim Beckham | SS | Griffin (Ga.) High School | Tim Beckham | Likely won't fall to us, either. A possible No. 1 pick. Went No. 1 to the Tampa Bay Rays |
| Buster Posey | C | Junior, Florida State University | Buster Posey | Would be an absolute steal if he falls to No. 7, but don't count on it. Some mock drafts have him going No. 1 to the Rays. This season he has 24 home runs in 63 games with a .468 batting average, and he's also got a reputation for terrific defense. He would fit into our system great, and wouldn't really be in competition with Devin Mesoraco (he's way ahead of Devin at this point.) He's also the ACC Player of the Year. If he falls all the way to 7, there should be no question as to who to pick. But I can't see a scenario in which he goes lower than fifth. Giants select him at No. 5. |
| Kyle Skipworth | C | Patriot (Calif.) High School | Feature , Interview | Unlike Posey, he isn't a good fit for the Reds. Even though we need depth at the backstop, I can't imagine we'd take a project high school catcher two years in a row. Pass. Goes No. 6 to the Marlins. |
| Gordon Beckham | SS | Junior, University of Georgia | Gordon Beckham | (No relation to Tim.) Some think he's a more natural fit for second base. Put up big offensive numbers at Georgia this season, with 24 homers and batting nearly .400. Could do a lot worse. |
| Brian Matusz | LHP | Junior, University of San Diego | Brian Matusz | One of the two top college pitchers might be available at No. 7. The Orioles reportedly are considering him at No. 4, but they also like Justin Smoak. Would likely be a candidate to fill out our rotation by next season. Goes No. 4 to Baltimore. |
| Brett Lawrie | INF | Brookswood Secondary School, British Columbia | Brett Lawrie | This is who Baseball Prospectus has us taking. His legend grew when he hit 8 homers in 8 games against pros in the DR. He's also a Canadian, which the Reds seem to love. Had a special workout on Tuesday, so his slot might depend on what happened then. Like Mesoraco last season, his stock is soaring right now. |
| Eric Hosmer | 1B | American Heritage (Fla.) HS | Eric Hosmer | I don't see us taking a prep bat. But according to Baseball America, Hosmer is at the top of San Francisco's draft board (No. 5), so if he and Posey don't go in the first four picks, Posey could slip to us. He's a Boras guy, so hope that Kansas City and Baltimore don't want to pay his price. Goes No. 3 to Kansas City. We have no shot at Posey. |
| Yonder Alonso | 1B | Junior, Miami University |
Yonder Alonso | Is less versatile defensively than Votto, so should we take him he would likely be our first baseman of the future, moving Votto to the outfield. Would be looking for money well over slot, so we might have to break our signing bonus record (Chris Gruler, $2.5 million, 2002) to get him. BP has him "at the top of (the Reds') board." Got him. I think this was an excellent pick. Keith Law is now saying he's surprised we took him because of the money he's asking for. Open your checkbook, Bob, and break in your outfielder's glove, Joey. |
| Aaron Crow | RHP | Junior, University of Missouri | Aaron Crow | Had a million strikeouts in 100 innings this season, making him perhaps the top arm in the draft, but some have issues with his mechanics. I don't know a lot about the topic, but the comparisons (Mark Prior, Francisco Liriano) are enough to scare me away from this pick. Still, John Sickels has us taking Crow, and he's been the guy linked to us most often. |
| Justin Smoak | 1B | Junior, University of South Carolina | Justin Smoak | A switch-hitter with plus-power (23 homers in 63 games), this guy's a stud at the plate. Like Alonso, he's not a great defender, but that's not a big worry of mine for a first baseman. Several services have him falling past No. 7, but none I've seen have us interested in him. I'm not sure why; with Alonso, he looks to be the best college first baseman in the draft, and with our coming dearth in the outfield, moving Votto to left seems to make a lot of sense. |
| Casey Kelly | SS/RHP | Sarasota (Fla.) High School | Casey Kelly | His family connection (father Pat is the SaraReds' manager) seems to be the only reason we're considering taking him this high. He's a terrific athlete (he's signed to play quarterback for Tennessee next year, adding to concerns about whether he'll even pursue a baseball career), but most services have him going around 15th. Sickels originally had him going 30th to Boston. This pick would be very disappointing to me. |
0 recs |
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mechanics
Chris OLeary’s take on Aaron Crow’s mechanics that Doug Dirt brought to our attention has sufficiently scared me off him. Question though—what’s the mechanical red flag that caused teams to back off Tim Lincecum? I remember he was billed as an injury waiting to happen which caused certain clubs (sob) to pass, but in his inverted W primer OLeary says Tiny Tim does it the right way and could be “a 20 year guy” (sob).
by Red Menace on Jun 5, 2008 3:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re:Lincecum
was it what this scout called his “controlled fury”? that is, just that his body is creating all kinds of crazy torque, making it look like he’s about to erupt out of his skin and jerk his head violently to the side. Basically, just an agressive delivery. As that scout says, “Might scare some, doesn’t scare me.” The fact that he scared the Reds is … well, it’s too bad.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 4:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
With all the jokes about his arm falling off
(I’ve made them out of bitterness) I think that concerns started with his lower body mechanics. The last second stepover on his front leg—some (like the CBWannabe link you posted) think it helps him create velocity and changes the eye-level of the hitter; some think that this stepover breaks the continuity of his movement and puts too much stress on his front knee and groin. His motion also causes him to dip his shoulders as he squares to the plate.
No matter how strange a delivery is, some major league pitcher will make it work for him. It looks like Lincecum is a good enough athlete to pull this off, but I can’t see many coaches teaching this delivery.
Some muthafucka’s always trying to ice-skate uphill
by Man Mountain on Jun 5, 2008 4:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Back issues
I know little about pitching mechanics, but the way Lincecum contorts his whole body, especially his back, has always looked troubling to me. But I haven’t seen too much discussion by CBW and other mechanics gurus about this, and the only post I can find (from a Reds blog I’m not familiar with) dismisses the issue.
by ken on Jun 5, 2008 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Something bothers me about Beckham
but I can’t quite put my finger on it. I actually saw him play once this year, and he reminded me of Todd Walker: a SS with a lot of power coming from a small frame. Walker’s power took a dip with the switch to wooden bats, at least in the majors.
I suppose if a team could know ahead of time that a draftee would have Todd Walker’s career they’d take him, but it seems like there might be a surer bat there at 7.
Some muthafucka’s always trying to ice-skate uphill
by Man Mountain on Jun 5, 2008 4:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jonathan Mayo has the Reds taking Gordan Beckham, however,
he also has Cleveland taking Georgia RP Josh Fields at 26 and Arizona taking the very same Fields at 29.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 7:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does size matter that much?
These days, people seem to expect power hitters to look like Barry Bonds or Big Papi. But Hank Aaron was kinda scrawny. And the guy most likely to eclipse Bonds’ record, A-Rod, is not that big, either.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Jun 5, 2008 7:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A Rod
Is 6-3 225. That’s a fairly decent sized ball player. Definitely wouldn’t consider him scrawny. Anything but.
by DisplacedFan on Jun 5, 2008 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But...
...when he was the age of these kids, he was only 180-190 lbs.
He used to look like a SS. Now, he doesn’t. Yankees fans often say they don’t think he’d be able to move back to SS, because he’s so much bigger and slower now. Dunno if I buy that, but he has bulked up.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Jun 5, 2008 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His wife is also Scary.
Hey Dusty...Are you sure you're OK? You might need an MRI.
by Paul Householder on Jun 5, 2008 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matsuz all the way
If he isn’t there, then it will suck. Probably Beckham, but he disturbs me. Looks like he will struggle with wood.
by Johnnypronto on Jun 5, 2008 5:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What does Dick Pole think?
Hey Dusty...Are you sure you're OK? You might need an MRI.
by Paul Householder on Jun 5, 2008 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bend it Like Dick Pole
that’s what I say.
by Brian B on Jun 6, 2008 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One vote for Gerrit Cole, who’s much better than where he’s projected, better top end than Crow IMHO, and, given our lack of a second rounder, his ties to Boras shouldn’t matter as much moneywise.
by IgnatiusJReilly on Jun 5, 2008 8:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Remember the $2 million the Reds gave Juan Duran.
That could factor significantly into holding down what the Reds are willing to spend. That could absorb the money fromnot having a second-round pick.
I’m split on Cole, but considering who is available, think taking him at No. 7 is too high. I like his fastball - 93-96 and at times touching 98 - and his curve. He maintains his velocity, which bodes well for him as a starter. His inconsistent command and mechanics,however, might suggest reliever. He’s said to be immature and is rumored to be asking for a $6 million signing bonus.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BA is speculating that Cole
well could be selected by the Yankees at No. 28. Apparently, Detroit considerd Cole but is going to pass.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buster wants to go fishing
Per Goldstein, Posey is pricing himself out of the Rays’ budget: “Late this evening, multiple sources have indicated as to Buster Posey’s draft-eve asking price, and it’s a doozy at $12 million. Right now, that looks like more than enough to make up the Rays mind, and they’ll likely be taking Tim Beckham unless that number reverses dramatically in the next 12 hours. The real question is to the reason for the number, as some believe it’s a posturing maneuver to drop Posey to a team with deeper pockets, though many feel that strategy would backfire, and somebody with a early pick will call the bluff.”
Even if he did fall to no. 7, I can’t see the Reds matching that kind of demand.
by ken on Jun 5, 2008 8:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Baseball America says it's Gordon Beckham.
BA has the top 10 as:
TB: Tim Beckham
Pit: Pedro Alvarez
KC: Eric Hosmer
Bal: Brian Mtausz
SF: Justin Smoak
Fla: Buster Posey
Cin: Gordon Beckham
ChiW: Yonder Alonso
Was: Aaron Crow
Hou: Kyle Skipworth
BA reports the Reds prefer Matusz, but don’t expect himto be there, and won’t rule out Posey. Lawrie is a possibility, but Beckham is preferred.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 10:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was just about to post this scoop
Curse your lightning fingers, Turtle!
Here’s the link from mlb.com.
by Brendanukkah on Jun 5, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kieth Law quick mock yesterday
Law
1. Buster Posey,
2. Pedro Alvarez,
3. Eric Hosmer,
4. Brian Matusz,
5. Justin Smoak,
6. Kyle Skipworth,
7. Tim Beckham
by DisplacedFan on Jun 5, 2008 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
meant to add
that is the only place I’ve seen Tim Beckham. Weird.
by DisplacedFan on Jun 5, 2008 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And we know that the Pirates are taking Alvarez.
Royals on the metaphorical clock.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Jun 5, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well played, .gif monkey.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Jun 5, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Best day of the year
The Reds pick is going to be determined by the Orioles and possible the Marlins with who they take. The Reds won’t let Matusz go by them, but he probably won’t be there. They have some interest in Posey but with his rumors 12,000,000 bonus demands I can’t see them taking him. Honestly, I wouldn’t pay him half that price. That leaves Beckham and Alonso. If Beckham is there and Matusz isn’t, he will be the pick and I will rejoice.
http://www.redsminorleagues.com and http://www.RedsPitchFX.com
by dougdirt on Jun 5, 2008 11:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mark my words:
Aaron Crow will be a star,
People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.
by crolfer on Jun 5, 2008 11:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Got it.....
He has a good chance to do that if he can stay healthy, but he has two serious flaws in his delivery and one that isn’t likely to be fixable without reworking his entire delivery which sometimes can cause as much issue as the original one did due to the muscle memory and muscles being built to throw a certain way. I hope he goes on to be a great pitcher (for an American League team), the stuff is there…. I just really question whether his elbow won’t snap.
http://www.redsminorleagues.com and http://www.RedsPitchFX.com
by dougdirt on Jun 5, 2008 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In one of the, well, we'll say most unique draft projections,
Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune has the Reds taking Brian Matusz. Rogers’ top 7 is as follows:
TB: Posey
Pit: Alvarez
KC: T. Beckham
Bal: G. Beckham
SF: Smoak
Fla: Skipworth
Cin: Matusz
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 12:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think the Reds would love to see that happen
They have Matusz ahead of Beckham for sure. Of course given that TB has already said they are taking T Becks…. it throws a wrench in there.
http://www.redsminorleagues.com and http://www.RedsPitchFX.com
by dougdirt on Jun 5, 2008 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
everyone's pretty much coalescing around the idea that the reds want beckham
he doesnt seem all that thrilling to me, although there’s a lot to like about a college junior with good defense at short who hits 24 homers in 62 games.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 12:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he looks like a stoner...
People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.
by crolfer on Jun 5, 2008 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
(I know a fair amount of them, so they're easy to pick out)
People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.
by crolfer on Jun 5, 2008 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i added a poll
and voted for beckham
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I voted for Lawrie, even though he might need more seasoning
[I promise I’ve been funny on occasion before]
by Brendanukkah on Jun 5, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought Gordon was not related to Tim
Marty was talking about what a big day it will be for the Beckham family with the two brothers going in the top 10.
by Red Menace on Jun 5, 2008 2:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He's not.
Marty was wrong.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Jun 5, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A comparison:
Tim:
Gordon:
You can totally see the resemblance.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Jun 5, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Anything happen yet?
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Jun 5, 2008 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Link to DraftCaster on MLB.com
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2008/draftcaster.jsp
It’s working now.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Jun 5, 2008 2:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
pirates take alvarez
this next pick could decide a lot
by Rick House on Jun 5, 2008 2:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
They didn't go cheap.
Good for Neal Huntington.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this tv coverage is ridiculous
they stop the “clock” during commercials
by Rick House on Jun 5, 2008 2:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Interviewing guys on the phone
is lousy, too, especially when we can’t hear them. Aaron Hicks is said to be the only likely first-round pick actually in attendance at the draft site. MLB is better than the NFL, but on draft day there is no comparison.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kansas City takes Hosmer
another Boras guy
by Rick House on Jun 5, 2008 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
KC takes Hosmer.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Jun 5, 2008 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
baltimore takes matusz
Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.
by andromache on Jun 5, 2008 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
baltimore takes matusz
this is chalk. i smell gordon beckham
by Rick House on Jun 5, 2008 2:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How's he smell?
Does he smell like a champion?
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Jun 5, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No surprises so far.
It gets interesting now with the Giants.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You don't think they like Alonso over Smoak?
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Jun 5, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shit, I thought you were talking about our pick.
My bad.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Jun 5, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To steal a line from a Giant fan,
with McCovey Cove the Giants could have “Smoak on the water” for several years.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would have gone with "Bottle of Smoak"
But I was listening to the “If I Should Fall From Grace With God” album on my way into work this morning.
by Brendanukkah on Jun 5, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
liquid smoak?
pete rose to tony perez "how can anyone as slow as you pull a muscle?"
by dunnateher on Jun 5, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we're gonna get a shot at alonso
but i think we’re gonna pass him up for backham
by Rick House on Jun 5, 2008 2:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That leaves the Reds to decide from among
Beckham, Alonso, Smoak and Crow. I’m hoping Alonso or Smoak, but my money is on Beckham.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 2:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fish take Skipworth, Reds on the clock
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Jun 5, 2008 2:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ESPN just scrolled that one of the last nine Reds first round
picks have playedin the majors—Ryan Wagner. Ever hear of that Bruce fellow, gentlemen?
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 2:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
votto?
sowers?
Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.
by andromache on Jun 5, 2008 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
huh, i totally thought votto was first round.
oops
Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.
by andromache on Jun 5, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
marlins take skipworth
alonso and smoak are right there.
by Rick House on Jun 5, 2008 2:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
god this sucks
i dont dislike beckham, but is he really that inspiring for a No. 7 pick?
by Rick House on Jun 5, 2008 2:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Alonso! Yes!
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Jun 5, 2008 2:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
YES! YES! YES!
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 2:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Grab a outfield glove Alonso
Dude is a good hitter, but bad 1st basemen. He makes Votto look like a star.
Goodbye Adam Dunn.
by Johnnypronto on Jun 5, 2008 2:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
From BPro's chat:
Bryan Smith (11:55:19 AM PT): The top Cape prospect finds a home in the top ten, which proves to you college players that it pays to hit with wood when you can. Yonder Alonso is such a talented hitter, though, I think he could hit with a tennis racquet. Alonso has the best approach for any player in this draft, and it’s really not close.
by ken on Jun 5, 2008 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This pick is also being called
the “first big surprise” of the draft. The White Sox are now set to take Beckham, allegedly.
by ken on Jun 5, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
me too
he kinda reminds me of a slimmer, more athletic Travis Hafner (circa 2006). he hits with real authority. having the likes of Bruce, Votto, and Alonso in the middle of our lineup is really exciting. now if only he was right handed…
If you don't get a good-night kiss, you get Kafka dreams.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 5, 2008 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent character from what I hear, too.
That’s why he’s a Red and not a Bengal.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More on Alonso:
Here are some items from various sources regarding Alonso:
Has been consistent for three seasons at Miami. Minnesota drafted him in the 16th rond out of HS. Drove in 69 runs as a freshman. Very patient power hitter. OBP fans will love him. He makes consistent contact. As a sophomore hit 18 HR w/a .376 average. Born in Cuba, Alonso came to the U.S. when he was 9.
Alonso is regarded by many as the draft’s best combination of power and average among 1B and, really, among all hitters. He has a very professional approach and has power to all fields. Alonso is limited to 1B and while not a gold glover, plays it just fine. He has an adequate arm and is a below average runner.
Alonso is 6-2, 215 and a junior. He was rated the No. 2 prospect in the Cape Cod League last summer after going 4-12-.338. He’s from the same HS as Mike Lowell. Alonso has consistently played well in big games.
This season, Alons has a 21-66-.370 .536 .767 line. In 189 AB, he walked 69 timesand struck out 30 (I know, BB don’t count as AB).
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 3:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
what?
this is the stupidest thing i’ve ever said
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dont know
changing your handle because you thought “boobs” was too “unprofessional” wasnt the sharpest move either, IMO.
If you don't get a good-night kiss, you get Kafka dreams.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 5, 2008 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Houston took a reach, taking Jason Castro-C-Stanford.
That’s a bigger surprise than Alonso.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 3:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That has to be a signability pick for a team unwilling to go over slot.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Houston doesn't seem like a very aggressive franchise
when it comes to the draft.
by ken on Jun 5, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They're not, at least not lately.
They had a horrendous draft last year. Ownership doesn’t allow the GM to go over MLB’s recommended slot for players and they’ve made some befuddling picks of late.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
signability?
Wasn’t he asking for $8 million?
Oh, I think you were talking about Castro.
by Brian B on Jun 6, 2008 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Milwaukee takes Brett Lawrie and lists him as a catcher.
I thnk he’ll be a 3B or LF, but we’ll see. Good gamble by a team with a lot of extra picks.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 3:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey Rick.
If you’re still around, I’m really enjoying this today. There aren’t a lot of folks who get into the draft. I appreciate your work and your input.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 4:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
very welcome
thanks really goes to guys like you, doug, geki, etc. who drive the conversation around here when it comes to amateur baseball. You were the one who first mentioned Alonso at RR, and that got me really excited about the guy.
Funny, take a look at that link. Mayo nailed the top 7 more than a week ago. Very impressive.
by Rick House on Jun 5, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks to you, Turtle
Having knowledgeable and friendly seamheads like you around makes this a lot more fun and productive. I just took a look at Fay’s blog. Lots of thrashing in the dark.
Some muthafucka’s always trying to ice-skate uphill
by Man Mountain on Jun 5, 2008 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alonso in action -- hot, sexy aluminum on rawhide action
Newest Red Yonder Alonso will be playing with the top-ranked Miami Hurricanes in a super regional game against Arizona.
It’s the flagshipl game tomorrow, Friday, at 7pm eastern on ESPN.
Some muthafucka’s always trying to ice-skate uphill
by Man Mountain on Jun 5, 2008 4:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks!
Good heads up, too. That makes watching the game a lot more interesting.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he shouldn't play
what if he gets hurt?
When it comes to Phil Mickelson...Marty's not a fan.
by chandrathan on Jun 5, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey IgnatiusJ
Gerrit Cole just went to the Yankees at No. 28. He’s a good value there. I feel for the kid. I’msure he’s already being billed by NYY fans as the next Whitey Ford.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Twins went with Miami RHRP Carlos Gutierrez.
Real surprise there. He was rated much lower. Minnesota took a similar coourse with Ben Revere last year. It’s tough to go against their scouting department, but this is an interesting pick.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 4:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Cleveland makes a questionable pick.
Lonnie Chisenhall-3B-Pitt CC. He was kicked off the South Carolina team after a larceny conviction. I hope the kid just made a dumb mistake and bounces back well. The Indians usually put a fair amount of weight into character.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pitt CC
Funny, my dad works there. I’ll have to ask him about Chisenhall.
It’s a big baseball area, with ECU in town as well.
by ken on Jun 5, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's ironic as hell.
A buddy of mine pitches there, and last I talked to him, was looking to get drafted sometime tomorrow.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Jun 5, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pete Levitt
I’d say he’s more of a late round project if he gets drafted. I think he’s more likely to transfer to D-I.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Jun 5, 2008 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fuller was Chisenhall's partner in crime
at South Carolina.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't mind that
It’s just the Indians front office trolling Eric Wedge.
Hard truth: Your eyes lie.
by AngG on Jun 5, 2008 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Casey Kelly a Red
Sock. Boston picks the HS SS from Sarasota. His dad is a coach in the Reds organization and there were rumors Cincinnati would take him at No. 7. He’s a SS/RHP and also a Tennessee football and baseball recruit. I doubt Boston can’t get him signed away from the Vols.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 4:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
espn says smoak is better than alonso
what you guys say?
When it comes to Phil Mickelson...Marty's not a fan.
by chandrathan on Jun 5, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ESPN lets Steve Phillips headline its draft coverage
Some muthafucka’s always trying to ice-skate uphill
by Man Mountain on Jun 5, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keith Law agrees, fwiw
Also, the BPro guys were mixed. Bryan Smith really likes Alonso, while Goldstein was much higher on Smoak: I like Alonso a lot, but no way, no way at ALL he should go over Smoak. I don’t get that at all. Somebody is going to get a steal with Smoak.
by ken on Jun 5, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was just being glib
I was able to see both players this year in regional coverage, and Smoak had a ton more hype in the college baseball world and is physically imposing at the plate. You’ve got to like the switch-hitting ability.as well.
What bodes well for Alonso, it seems to me, is his success coming out of the Cape and his patience at the plate in the ACC, which has a reputation as an “aggressive” “run-manufacturing” conference compared to the SEC and PAC-10. Of course, Miami’s been doing it’s own thing for a long time.
Some muthafucka’s always trying to ice-skate uphill
by Man Mountain on Jun 5, 2008 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see Alonso as more of a slugger than is Smoak,
not that Smoak can’t hit for power. Smoak is better defensively. Smoak likely will hit for a little more average, while Alonso likely will provide more power. Both are very capable of getting on base.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i love that everybody's piling on the alonso votes now that we drafted him
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 5:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My Lawrie stands alone
If anyone doubted that I’m forever talking out my ass, that should cement things.
by Brendanukkah on Jun 5, 2008 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Twins opened the Supplemental by taking Shooter Hunt
from Tulane. My Thundering Herd knocked him around pretty good in the Conference USA Tournament. Speaking of the Herd, Kansas City took HS LHP Mike Montgomery. If he works out as well as their last Montgomery, Jeff, they will have done well. Jeff, by the way, is a former Marshall pitcher.
Now that I’ve plugged good ole MU more than anyone wants to hear, can you name the player the Reds received when they traded Montgomery to KC many years ago?
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 6:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You are correct. sir.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Houston's getting a lot of heat again
for taking Jordan Lyles-HS-RHP. He wasn’t in Baseball America’s Top 200 and ranked as just the seventh-best player in South Carolina. A closer look shows he’s a good one with a lot of projection. That pick might actually be a good one, although I think there were better options available.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 6:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How about the Pirates rolling the dice on Tanner Scheppers?
The Fresno State RHP was viewed by many as a top-10 talent before a shoulder injury sidelined him late in the season. I never thought Pittsburgh, who can rival Cincinnati for most injured pitchers, would draft him. High risk, high reward. That’s one way to try to turn around a franchise.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 6:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
how long before we pick again?
i dont have a list in front of me, and i dont see reds anywhere on the drafttracker. do we even have a second-round pick?
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 6:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
With what would have been the Reds pick in the second round
had they not signed Coco, Milwaukee takes Seth Lintz-RHP-Marshall County HS. Icould be proven wrong, but I’d rather have Cordero.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 6:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Leather Britches uses his 2nd rounder on
Destin Hood, a raw, toolsy HS OF from Alabama. Who would have thunk it?
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 6:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm pulling for Crow
but the Nats took him. It would totally fit if Bowden’s top pick pitcher blew out his arm before reaching the big leagues.
by Red Menace on Jun 5, 2008 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I told my tennis coach (his wife is Crow's aunt) tonight that Crow is definitely the best pitcher Bowden has ever drafted.
by Brian B on Jun 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is cursed now
because Bowden drafted him
Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds
by Caleb on Jun 6, 2008 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
third round
reds take RHP Zachary Stewart, a closer from Texas Tech. Turtle?
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 7:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
his numbers look completely unimpressive
4.98 ERA, 43K in 47IP, 3S. 28R in 20 appearances. Um?
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Numbers don't look good
But he gave the bathroom stall hand wave signal to Walt Jocketty at an airport men’s room in West Texas once. That gets him a 3 round pick.
by Brian B on Jun 6, 2008 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
better the bathroom stall hand wave
than the bathroom stall wide stance foot tap
Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds
by Caleb on Jun 6, 2008 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Potentially a really good pick.
Stewart was Tech’s closer and a good one. He throws 92-96 and features a plus-fastball with terrific sink and a plus-slider, although the slider wasn’t as sharp late in the season as it was earlier. He commands both pitches well. Stewart has a developing change. He has a closer’s mentality, aggressively going after hitters.
Baseball America ranked Stewart the 46th-best player in the draft. Not a bad value at all. He was a SP in juco ball, but Tech moved him to the pen and he thrived. He started two games this season and gave up 16 hits in 9 IP, so back to the pen he went. At mid-season, he was viewed a s possible first-round pick.
I’m pleased.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
UK's scott green just went to the tigers with the 99th pick
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 7:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
how many rounds do they do today?
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 7:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
About 5. I think they stop at 9 p.m.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
reds take another RHP
high schooler Tyler Cline
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 7:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tyler Cline?
shrugs
Anyone know anything?
by homerun21 on Jun 5, 2008 7:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I know a little.
Cline is 6-3, 240. He throws a low-90s fastball and has a curve that is described as kneebuckling. He has some deception in his delivery. Cline has signed to play at Middle Georgia Junior College, so he likely is signable. BA ranks him as the 24th-best draftable player from Georgia. He’s supposed to be big and strong. I’ll see what else I can dig up.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was projected to go in the first round
but fell due to signability concerns. His pure stuff is as good as any pitcher in the draft. He commands his fastball in the mid-90s and can touch 98. He also sports a knee buckling 12-6 curve. No changeup yet, but he’s mature beyond his years and should be very coachable.
Actually I have no idea. But you were pretty excited, huh?
by Red Menace on Jun 5, 2008 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you nailed knee-buckling
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well played.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
another RHP
NC State’s Clayton Shunick.
Seriously, aren’t there enough RHPs in our organization?
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 8:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah, they should be drafting left-handed power hitting outfielders
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
by Slyde on Jun 5, 2008 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
are you getting smart?
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've always been smart
Now I’m just developing my ass
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
by Slyde on Jun 5, 2008 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the scoop on Shunick.
6-1, 170. Jr. Age 21.
His line: 6-5 2.48. 12 G. 76.1 IP, 62 H, 19 BB, 82 K.
BA rates him the 170th player in the draft. He is a transfer from Georgia State, where he pitched as a freshman. As a sophomore at NC State he was a RP. This season he was the Wolfpack’s No. 1 SP.
Scouts say he profiles best as a middle reliever. His delivery is deceptive and he is an intelligent pitcher.
He was a Cape Cod League all-star in 2006. Throws an 88-91 mph fastball and an above average splitter that he gets outs with. He has a solid slider. He commands all three pitches well, throws on a downhill plane and keeps the ball down in the strike zone. He throws and commands the splitter in any count.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 8:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey, we got a guy named Buchholz!
Taylor, a SS from Delaware. He sounds neat.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 8:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
er, Alexander
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
im liking these picks
sinking fastballs and knee-buckling curveballs sound effective. we need more effective players.
If you don't get a good-night kiss, you get Kafka dreams.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 5, 2008 8:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah, we should only draft good players
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
im sold
Boobs for GM
If you don't get a good-night kiss, you get Kafka dreams.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 5, 2008 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Our friend Mr. Buchholz likely will be a 2B as a pro.
At Delaware he did nothing but rake … until this season. After batting .378 in 2006 and .387 in 2007, he fell off to .319 in 2008. Maybe a case of draftitis.
His line this year: 5-34-.319. He doesn’t strike out nor walk much and isn’t much of a SB threat. His .944 fielding percentage certainly means he won’t stay at SS.
He is 6-foot, 190 and and also has played 3B. He hit 18 HR as a freshman and 11 as a sophomore, driving in 64 and 63 runs, respectively.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 8:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
wow. he was good.
can we use a late 2006 pick to draft him?
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keppinger?
Some muthafucka’s always trying to ice-skate uphill
by Man Mountain on Jun 5, 2008 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thats it for today
To recap:
1) Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami
3) Zachary Stewart, RHP, Texas Tech
4) Tyler Cline, RHP, such-and-such High School
5) Clayton Shunick, RHP, NC State
6) Alexander Buchholz, SS, Delaware U
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 9:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Overall, a good day.
I love the Alonso pick. I like Stewart’s potential. Shunick was a nice pick. Buchholz at least has hit in the past, but I’m not sure if his defense will play. I need to find out more about Cline.
For not having a second-round pick, this was a solid day, thanks to the Alonso selection.
Let’s do it again tomorrow.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 9:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
where did you find that info on Cline?
FIRE DUSTY BAKER
by Blue on Jun 5, 2008 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
eine cline nachtmusik
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's not english, keith
FIRE DUSTY BAKER
by Blue on Jun 5, 2008 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
perfectgame.org
and a little Baseball America. I’ll talk to a scout I know and see if he can tell me anything.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
im gonna start making my sign for the ballpark right now
its gonna say “HIT IT OUT YONDER!” and it will have an arrow pointing to Kentucky. clever, huh?
If you don't get a good-night kiss, you get Kafka dreams.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 5, 2008 9:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i don't get it
When it comes to Phil Mickelson...Marty's not a fan.
by chandrathan on Jun 5, 2008 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cline
From perfectgame.org
“PG Report
Tyler Cline is a 2008 RHP/3B/C with a 6’3’’, 215 lb. frame from Cartersville GA, who attends Cass HS. Named to Top Prospect Team.Thick extra strong build. Primary OF, looks like a RHP prospect. FB tops 90 mph, occ excellent life, slurve 75 SL, good chg, low effort mechanics, some pitchability. Plus raw power at the plate, aggressive swing, front foot hitter. Two-way power prospect.”
Don’t know what half of that means but there you go
by IgnatiusJReilly on Jun 5, 2008 9:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yonder
Chris at Redleg Nation has uncovered a video interview with Alonso conducted by some hip kids at the Miami Herald. Worth a look.
http://redlegnation.com/2008/06/05/reds-take-um-1b-yonder-alonso-in-first-round/
Some muthafucka’s always trying to ice-skate uphill
by Man Mountain on Jun 5, 2008 10:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
To be completely honest...
I’m really not thrilled with Alonso. Assuming that Votto moves to the outfield, he’d have to play left most likely, meaning Dunn would be gone. Unless Alonso is trade bait (the high asking price hurts that possibility), I have some bad feelings…
On a lighter note… I’m now in Ohio…
People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.
by crolfer on Jun 5, 2008 11:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
dunn probably is gone
but that has nothing to do with alonso.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 6, 2008 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to see what kind of hometown discount Dunn is willing to give the Reds
If he’s asking for a big money and years contract (i.e., 4 years/45 mil, which is fair given the market created by the Carlos Lee signing) the Reds should probably let him walk.
Some muthafucka’s always trying to ice-skate uphill
by Man Mountain on Jun 6, 2008 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d give Dunn 4 years/ 45 mil considering what others (Like Lee) are getting
Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds
by Caleb on Jun 6, 2008 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So would I
Four years is my limit though. And $45 million over four years seems a bit like a bargain to me.
by Brendanukkah on Jun 6, 2008 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, that's too low
that averages to less than he’s making right now. I think his contract will average at least $13-15 million a year. I’d try to hit him with a 3 year, $48 million contract with a 4th year option. It’s probably on the high-end per year, but the Reds would be paying bigger for a shorter deal.
I have no idea if that is realistic.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
by Slyde on Jun 6, 2008 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alonso - Signability?
I heard he is gonna demand some real cheddar, 8Mill ! Whats the new rules about signing a guy? If we don’t get it done by September don’t we get the same pick next year? Is that at all a possibilty?
by kennythered on Jun 6, 2008 12:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
if they didnt think they could sign him
they wouldnt have drafted him. jeremy sowers aside.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 6, 2008 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
conspiracy theory
Think they picked a guy they know they couldn’t sign so they could save some money in the wake of eating a ton of contracts the past two years?
$8mil is a ton of money.
by bobestes on Jun 6, 2008 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hope to god not
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 6, 2008 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did they change the rules?
So there’s no more draft and follow until next June?
by Brian B on Jun 6, 2008 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The rules did change.
There is no draft and follow anymore. Players must sign by Aug. 15 or they no longer are eligible to be signed until after the following year’s draft.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 6, 2008 7:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Other rule change
If you don’t sign your first-rounder, you get a compensation pick the next year at the same spot. So to fuel the conspiracy theory, you could pick a guy with no intent of signing him and lose little in the long run because you’d have two first-round picks the next year.
by ken on Jun 6, 2008 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that also theoretically gives you the option to sign a big name free agent
since the pick you lose will still come back to you.
(I know that makes very little sense logically, but I wanted to put a positive spin on it.)
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
by Slyde on Jun 6, 2008 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm looking forward
to the Garret Anderson era.
by ken on Jun 6, 2008 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you just made me throw up in mouth a little bit
That seems very realistic, doesn’t it? Thankfully, I don’t believe he has any past connection with Dusty or Jocketty.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
by Slyde on Jun 6, 2008 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In my fever dreams
I noticed that Vlad Guerrero’s name is on the list of free-agents-to-be. If we take Griffey and Dunn’s salaries off the books, any chance we could take a run at Vlad?
by Brendanukkah on Jun 6, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
There are a lot of raises next year with Cordero, Harang, Arroyo, BP, Gonzalez, and Freel combining for about $17 million in raises next year. Those contracts were clearly set up to kick up once Dunn and Griffey were off the books.
Here’s a payroll estimate that I’ve attempted:
Guaranteed Contracts
Pos Player 2008 2009 2010 2011
RP Francisco Cordero $8.63 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00
SP Aaron Harang $6.75 $11.00 $12.50 $12.75
SP Bronson Arroyo $6.45 $9.50 $11.00 $11.00
IF Brandon Phillips $3.50 $4.75 $6.75 $11.00
IF Alex Gonzalez $4.63 $5.38 $0.50
OF Ryan Freel $3.00 $4.00
C David Ross $2.53 $3.50
Total $32.95 $50.13 $42.75 $46.75
Option Buyouts
Pos Player 2008 2009
OF Ken Griffey Jr $12.50 $4.00
RP Mike Stanton $3.00 $0.50
IF Juan Castro $0.98 $0.10
$19.00 $4.60
Arbitration Eligible Players
Pos Player 2008 2009 2010 2011
IF Edwin Encarnacion $0.45 ARB ARB ARB
RP Gary Majewski $0.40 ARB ARB ARB
SP Matt Belisle $1.25 ARB ARB
RP Todd Coffey $0.93 ARB ARB
Estimated $6.00 $8.00 $8.00
Pre-Arbitration Players
Pos Player 2008 2009 2010 2011
IF Jeff Keppinger $0.40 PRE ARB ARB
RP Jared Burton $0.40 PRE ARB ARB
RP Bill Bray $0.40 PRE ARB ARB
OF Norris Hopper $0.40 PRE ARB ARB
SP Edinson Volquez $0.39 PRE PRE ARB
IF Joey Votto $0.39 PRE PRE ARB
OF Jay Bruce $0.39 PRE PRE ?
SP Johnny Cueto $0.39 PRE PRE ARB
SP Homer Bailey $0.39 PRE PRE ?
IF Paul Janish $0.39 PRE PRE ARB
Estimated $4.00 $7.00 $12.00
OVERALL ESTIMATE $64.73 $57.75 $66.75
Players not signed for 2009
Pos Player 2008
OF Adam Dunn $13.00
RP David Weathers $3.30
RP Jeremy Affeldt $3.00
OF Corey Patterson $3.00
IF Scott Hatteberg $1.85
C Javier Valentin $1.35
SP Josh Fogg $1.00
C Paul Bako $0.75
RP Kent Mercker $0.60
RP Mike Lincoln $0.55
IF Jerry Hairston Jr. $0.50
Total $28.90
I’ve made a lot of assumptions, but the biggest money-wise is the assumption that Ross will be resigned. My justification there is that if they don’t sign him, they’ll sign somebody for at least that much. I don’t believe Coffey will be back and Majewski and Belisle are walking a tight-rope. That might get back a couple of milliion.
By my estimates, they’ll have about $20-25 million for each of the next couple of seasons. I’m guessing Vlad, who will be 33, will still be able to get $16-18 million a year over 4 or 5 years, so I’m not sure if he makes sense. They’d still need another catcher, another OF, lots of bullpen help (3 or 4 pitchers) and potentially a safety valve for the rotation. It’d be nice to have his bat replace Dunn, but the extra expense may prevent them from getting a solid reliever or a decent catcher.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
by Slyde on Jun 6, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any Right handed hitting outfielders out there?
Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds
by Caleb on Jun 6, 2008 12:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
if you mean next year
Pat Burrell, the right handed Adam Dunn, is a free agent. He’s doing a good job of that contract year thing.
by Red Menace on Jun 6, 2008 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think we've been looking in the wrong place
i think we should have considered earlier that votto might move to left. We might need a center fielder for a few years, until stubbs’ bat is decent enough to pass in the majors (questionable) or someone else develops into a good one. The list of FA center fielders doesnt look real hot, though. I see a lot of mark kotsays.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Jun 6, 2008 3:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
would we rather have
Burrell than Dunn? They are basically the same player aren’t they?
Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds
by Caleb on Jun 6, 2008 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn's younger and a little bit better offensively
And Burrell may actually be worse defensively – it’s close. I understand wanting another right-handed bat in the order, but that’s pretty much the only advantage Burrell has over Dunn, in my opinion. The big advantage with Dunn is that the Reds might get a hometown discount. I’m not sure I’d give an open market contract to either player.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
by Slyde on Jun 6, 2008 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Burrell
Even with his love-hate relationship with the fans, my guess is he resigns with the Phils. They have a “win now” mentality but no placeholder ready to take over LF and little RHB power. Burrell likes the city and has repeatedly says he wants to stay, though it certainly wouldn’t be the first time a player departed after making similar statements.
by ken on Jun 6, 2008 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ooh, you just sent a harpoon right through CoCo's gut.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
by Slyde on Jun 6, 2008 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
God love Yacht Rock
I woke up this morning realizing that the perfect retort to all of Johnnypronto’s naysaying would have been, “They say it’s a hopeless fight, but I say I gotta try!”
But I was too slow to think of it.
by Brendanukkah on Jun 6, 2008 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yacht rock will do that to ya
When it comes to Phil Mickelson...Marty's not a fan.
by chandrathan on Jun 6, 2008 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Prior no. 7 overall picks
An impressive lot, at least recently:
2007 Matt LaPorta
2006 Clayton Kershaw
2005 Troy Tulowitzki
2004 Homer Bailey
2003 Nick Markakis
2002 Prince Fielder
‘So is joining some good company.
by ken on Jun 6, 2008 11:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Stupid Nick Markakis
We drafted him in 2001, and again in 2002. But noooo, he had to be a top-10 pick and go to the Orioles.
by Brendanukkah on Jun 6, 2008 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Question
Why Alonso over Smoak? Smoak was getting hyped last year as a possible #1 pick and I hadnt heard of Alfonso until a few days ago. Sounds like they are pretty much the same player except Smoak player better defense and is a switch hitter. Since our line up is lefty heavy anyway wouldnt it make sense to draft Smoak instead. Both players would move quickly through the system.
by CamIam on Jun 6, 2008 11:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i probably would have taken Smoak myself
but i dont know what the Reds may know. they scouted both extensively (i presume) and im sure they debated this before the pick, but they figured Yonder was their boy. i have no problem with him. he walks alot, strikes out a little, has decent power, and could be here very soon.
If you don't get a good-night kiss, you get Kafka dreams.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 6, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It will be interesting
I read Keith Law a lot and he has been big on Smoak. Thats why I was surprised they passed him up. It sounds like they are both similar players but I would have rather had a the next Mark Teixeira than the next Travis Hafner (assuming each player reaches his potential).
by CamIam on Jun 6, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
honestly
i’d be ecstatic if he is the next Travis Hafner. you cant front on that. im most excited by the fact that he is so polished we could see him very soon. i think we can reasonably project to see him the middle of next year, if not sooner.
If you don't get a good-night kiss, you get Kafka dreams.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 6, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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