2008 Draft, Open Thread: Reds select Yonder Alonso

by Rick House on Jun 5, 2008 3:22 AM EDT in Events

[Note by Rick House, 06/05/08 12:44 PM EDT ] Edited to add poll. -Rick

It's that time.

The time when each team is reminded how bad they were the previous season by being compensated with picks as terrific as they were terrible and horrific. We were the 7th-worst team in baseball last year, so we're rewarded with our highest pick since 2004, when we took Homer Bailey with the seventh pick. (Bill Bray went 13th in that draft. Not the 13th round; 13th.) This is gonna be a rough sketch of our possible first-round pick at No. 7. Please feel free to post draft news, including late-round selections and profiles, as there are a lot of you who know much more about amateur baseball than me.

Draft essentials
WHEN: 2 p.m. today
WHERE: Lake Buena Vista, Fla.
TV: ESPN2, first two rounds plus compensation picks

In my non-expert opinion, the Reds should be down to Crow, Gordon Beckham, Alonso, Matusz, Lawrie or Posey at this point. The Rays will probably take Posey or Tim Beckham at No. 1, and the Pirates are probably going with Alvarez at No. 2. Kansas City should follow with Hosmer or, if available, Posey. Baltimore is likely looking at Tim Beckham or Matusz, and the Giants will pick up Posey if he's still on the board. If not, they could go with Gordon Beckham or Crow, but the pitchers' stocks seem to be falling. Florida could then take local kid Alonso or go with catching phenom Skipworth. Alonso or Smoak could still be available, and unless Lawrie really wowed the Reds in a private workout on Tuesday, from what I'm reading, I have to think we're most likely to take Yonder Alonso with the 7th pick.

I'd be disappointed if we take Kelly, worried if we take Crow, surprised if we got a crack at Posey and pretty pleased with anyone else. Gordon Beckham doesn't seem to get scouts too thrilled, but he wouldn't be a bad pick. I'm really hoping for Alonso, Posey or Matusz at this point, and since I don't see a way Posey falls all the way to 7, I'm pulling for Yonder.

Profiles and videos after the jump...

Player	Position	Origination	Video	Bio
Pedro Alvarez	3B	Junior, Vanderbilt University	Pedro Alvarez	Won't fall to us. The Bucs will probably take him at No. 2. Enjoy! Went No. 2 to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Tim Beckham	SS	Griffin (Ga.) High School	Tim Beckham	Likely won't fall to us, either. A possible No. 1 pick. Went No. 1 to the Tampa Bay Rays
Buster Posey	C	Junior, Florida State University	Buster Posey	Would be an absolute steal if he falls to No. 7, but don't count on it. Some mock drafts have him going No. 1 to the Rays. This season he has 24 home runs in 63 games with a .468 batting average, and he's also got a reputation for terrific defense. He would fit into our system great, and wouldn't really be in competition with Devin Mesoraco (he's way ahead of Devin at this point.) He's also the ACC Player of the Year. If he falls all the way to 7, there should be no question as to who to pick. But I can't see a scenario in which he goes lower than fifth. Giants select him at No. 5.
Kyle Skipworth	C	Patriot (Calif.) High School	Feature , Interview	Unlike Posey, he isn't a good fit for the Reds. Even though we need depth at the backstop, I can't imagine we'd take a project high school catcher two years in a row. Pass. Goes No. 6 to the Marlins.
Gordon Beckham	SS	Junior, University of Georgia	Gordon Beckham	(No relation to Tim.) Some think he's a more natural fit for second base. Put up big offensive numbers at Georgia this season, with 24 homers and batting nearly .400. Could do a lot worse.
Brian Matusz	LHP	Junior, University of San Diego	Brian Matusz	One of the two top college pitchers might be available at No. 7. The Orioles reportedly are considering him at No. 4, but they also like Justin Smoak. Would likely be a candidate to fill out our rotation by next season. Goes No. 4 to Baltimore.
Brett Lawrie	INF	Brookswood Secondary School, British Columbia	Brett Lawrie	This is who Baseball Prospectus has us taking. His legend grew when he hit 8 homers in 8 games against pros in the DR. He's also a Canadian, which the Reds seem to love. Had a special workout on Tuesday, so his slot might depend on what happened then. Like Mesoraco last season, his stock is soaring right now.
Eric Hosmer	1B	American Heritage (Fla.) HS	Eric Hosmer	I don't see us taking a prep bat. But according to Baseball America, Hosmer is at the top of San Francisco's draft board (No. 5), so if he and Posey don't go in the first four picks, Posey could slip to us. He's a Boras guy, so hope that Kansas City and Baltimore don't want to pay his price. Goes No. 3 to Kansas City. We have no shot at Posey.
Yonder Alonso	1B	Junior, Miami University	Yonder Alonso	Is less versatile defensively than Votto, so should we take him he would likely be our first baseman of the future, moving Votto to the outfield. Would be looking for money well over slot, so we might have to break our signing bonus record (Chris Gruler, $2.5 million, 2002) to get him. BP has him "at the top of (the Reds') board." Got him. I think this was an excellent pick. Keith Law is now saying he's surprised we took him because of the money he's asking for. Open your checkbook, Bob, and break in your outfielder's glove, Joey.
Aaron Crow	RHP	Junior, University of Missouri	Aaron Crow	Had a million strikeouts in 100 innings this season, making him perhaps the top arm in the draft, but some have issues with his mechanics. I don't know a lot about the topic, but the comparisons (Mark Prior, Francisco Liriano) are enough to scare me away from this pick. Still, John Sickels has us taking Crow, and he's been the guy linked to us most often.
Justin Smoak	1B	Junior, University of South Carolina	Justin Smoak	A switch-hitter with plus-power (23 homers in 63 games), this guy's a stud at the plate. Like Alonso, he's not a great defender, but that's not a big worry of mine for a first baseman. Several services have him falling past No. 7, but none I've seen have us interested in him. I'm not sure why; with Alonso, he looks to be the best college first baseman in the draft, and with our coming dearth in the outfield, moving Votto to left seems to make a lot of sense.
Casey Kelly	SS/RHP	Sarasota (Fla.) High School	Casey Kelly	His family connection (father Pat is the SaraReds' manager) seems to be the only reason we're considering taking him this high. He's a terrific athlete (he's signed to play quarterback for Tennessee next year, adding to concerns about whether he'll even pursue a baseball career), but most services have him going around 15th. Sickels originally had him going 30th to Boston. This pick would be very disappointing to me.

Poll

Who will the Reds take at No. 7?

Gordon Beckham

13 votes

Aaron Crow

8 votes

Brett Lawrie

2 votes

Yonder Alonso

57 votes

Buster Posey

3 votes

Brian Matusz

2 votes

85 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 214 comments

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Comments

mechanics

Chris OLeary’s take on Aaron Crow’s mechanics that Doug Dirt brought to our attention has sufficiently scared me off him. Question though—what’s the mechanical red flag that caused teams to back off Tim Lincecum? I remember he was billed as an injury waiting to happen which caused certain clubs (sob) to pass, but in his inverted W primer OLeary says Tiny Tim does it the right way and could be “a 20 year guy” (sob).

by Red Menace on Jun 5, 2008 3:55 AM EDT 0 recs

re:Lincecum

was it what this scout called his “controlled fury”? that is, just that his body is creating all kinds of crazy torque, making it look like he’s about to erupt out of his skin and jerk his head violently to the side. Basically, just an agressive delivery. As that scout says, “Might scare some, doesn’t scare me.” The fact that he scared the Reds is … well, it’s too bad.

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Jun 5, 2008 4:10 AM EDT up 0 recs

With all the jokes about his arm falling off

(I’ve made them out of bitterness) I think that concerns started with his lower body mechanics. The last second stepover on his front leg—some (like the CBWannabe link you posted) think it helps him create velocity and changes the eye-level of the hitter; some think that this stepover breaks the continuity of his movement and puts too much stress on his front knee and groin. His motion also causes him to dip his shoulders as he squares to the plate.

No matter how strange a delivery is, some major league pitcher will make it work for him. It looks like Lincecum is a good enough athlete to pull this off, but I can’t see many coaches teaching this delivery.

Some muthafucka’s always trying to ice-skate uphill

by Man Mountain on Jun 5, 2008 4:17 AM EDT up 0 recs

Back issues

I know little about pitching mechanics, but the way Lincecum contorts his whole body, especially his back, has always looked troubling to me. But I haven’t seen too much discussion by CBW and other mechanics gurus about this, and the only post I can find (from a Reds blog I’m not familiar with) dismisses the issue.

by ken on Jun 5, 2008 7:54 AM EDT up 0 recs

Something bothers me about Beckham

but I can’t quite put my finger on it. I actually saw him play once this year, and he reminded me of Todd Walker: a SS with a lot of power coming from a small frame. Walker’s power took a dip with the switch to wooden bats, at least in the majors.

I suppose if a team could know ahead of time that a draftee would have Todd Walker’s career they’d take him, but it seems like there might be a surer bat there at 7.

Some muthafucka’s always trying to ice-skate uphill

by Man Mountain on Jun 5, 2008 4:30 AM EDT 0 recs

Jonathan Mayo has the Reds taking Gordan Beckham, however,

he also has Cleveland taking Georgia RP Josh Fields at 26 and Arizona taking the very same Fields at 29.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 7:17 AM EDT up 0 recs

Does size matter that much?

These days, people seem to expect power hitters to look like Barry Bonds or Big Papi. But Hank Aaron was kinda scrawny. And the guy most likely to eclipse Bonds’ record, A-Rod, is not that big, either.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jun 5, 2008 7:24 AM EDT up 0 recs

A Rod

Is 6-3 225. That’s a fairly decent sized ball player. Definitely wouldn’t consider him scrawny. Anything but.

by DisplacedFan on Jun 5, 2008 10:07 AM EDT up 0 recs

But...

...when he was the age of these kids, he was only 180-190 lbs.

He used to look like a SS. Now, he doesn’t. Yankees fans often say they don’t think he’d be able to move back to SS, because he’s so much bigger and slower now. Dunno if I buy that, but he has bulked up.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jun 5, 2008 5:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

His wife is also Scary.

Hey Dusty...Are you sure you're OK? You might need an MRI.

by Paul Householder on Jun 5, 2008 10:14 AM EDT up 0 recs

Matsuz all the way

If he isn’t there, then it will suck. Probably Beckham, but he disturbs me. Looks like he will struggle with wood.

by Johnnypronto on Jun 5, 2008 5:32 AM EDT 0 recs

What does Dick Pole think?

Hey Dusty...Are you sure you're OK? You might need an MRI.

by Paul Householder on Jun 5, 2008 10:15 AM EDT up 0 recs

Bend it Like Dick Pole

that’s what I say.

by Brian B on Jun 6, 2008 12:57 AM EDT up 0 recs

One vote for Gerrit Cole, who’s much better than where he’s projected, better top end than Crow IMHO, and, given our lack of a second rounder, his ties to Boras shouldn’t matter as much moneywise.

by IgnatiusJReilly on Jun 5, 2008 8:55 AM EDT 0 recs

Remember the $2 million the Reds gave Juan Duran.

That could factor significantly into holding down what the Reds are willing to spend. That could absorb the money fromnot having a second-round pick.

I’m split on Cole, but considering who is available, think taking him at No. 7 is too high. I like his fastball - 93-96 and at times touching 98 - and his curve. He maintains his velocity, which bodes well for him as a starter. His inconsistent command and mechanics,however, might suggest reliever. He’s said to be immature and is rumored to be asking for a $6 million signing bonus.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 10:33 AM EDT up 0 recs

BA is speculating that Cole

well could be selected by the Yankees at No. 28. Apparently, Detroit considerd Cole but is going to pass.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

Buster wants to go fishing

Per Goldstein, Posey is pricing himself out of the Rays’ budget: “Late this evening, multiple sources have indicated as to Buster Posey’s draft-eve asking price, and it’s a doozy at $12 million. Right now, that looks like more than enough to make up the Rays mind, and they’ll likely be taking Tim Beckham unless that number reverses dramatically in the next 12 hours. The real question is to the reason for the number, as some believe it’s a posturing maneuver to drop Posey to a team with deeper pockets, though many feel that strategy would backfire, and somebody with a early pick will call the bluff.”

Even if he did fall to no. 7, I can’t see the Reds matching that kind of demand.

by ken on Jun 5, 2008 8:59 AM EDT 0 recs

Baseball America says it's Gordon Beckham.

BA has the top 10 as:

TB: Tim Beckham
Pit: Pedro Alvarez
KC: Eric Hosmer
Bal: Brian Mtausz
SF: Justin Smoak
Fla: Buster Posey
Cin: Gordon Beckham
ChiW: Yonder Alonso
Was: Aaron Crow
Hou: Kyle Skipworth

BA reports the Reds prefer Matusz, but don’t expect himto be there, and won’t rule out Posey. Lawrie is a possibility, but Beckham is preferred.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 10:36 AM EDT 0 recs

I was just about to post this scoop

Curse your lightning fingers, Turtle!

Here’s the link from mlb.com.

by Brendanukkah on Jun 5, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up 0 recs

Kieth Law quick mock yesterday

Law
1. Buster Posey,
2. Pedro Alvarez,
3. Eric Hosmer,
4. Brian Matusz,
5. Justin Smoak,
6. Kyle Skipworth,
7. Tim Beckham

by DisplacedFan on Jun 5, 2008 11:06 AM EDT 0 recs

meant to add

that is the only place I’ve seen Tim Beckham. Weird.

by DisplacedFan on Jun 5, 2008 11:07 AM EDT up 0 recs

We have the first pick

Tim Beckham

by DisplacedFan on Jun 5, 2008 11:20 AM EDT 0 recs

And we know that the Pirates are taking Alvarez.

Royals on the metaphorical clock.

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Jun 5, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up 0 recs

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jun 5, 2008 11:32 AM EDT up 0 recs

Well played, .gif monkey.

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Jun 5, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up 0 recs

Best day of the year

The Reds pick is going to be determined by the Orioles and possible the Marlins with who they take. The Reds won’t let Matusz go by them, but he probably won’t be there. They have some interest in Posey but with his rumors 12,000,000 bonus demands I can’t see them taking him. Honestly, I wouldn’t pay him half that price. That leaves Beckham and Alonso. If Beckham is there and Matusz isn’t, he will be the pick and I will rejoice.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com and http://www.RedsPitchFX.com

by dougdirt on Jun 5, 2008 11:24 AM EDT 0 recs

Mark my words:

Aaron Crow will be a star,

People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.

by crolfer on Jun 5, 2008 11:53 AM EDT 0 recs

Got it.....

He has a good chance to do that if he can stay healthy, but he has two serious flaws in his delivery and one that isn’t likely to be fixable without reworking his entire delivery which sometimes can cause as much issue as the original one did due to the muscle memory and muscles being built to throw a certain way. I hope he goes on to be a great pitcher (for an American League team), the stuff is there…. I just really question whether his elbow won’t snap.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com and http://www.RedsPitchFX.com

by dougdirt on Jun 5, 2008 12:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

It won't.

I endorsed him, therefore he’s a future HOFer.

People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.

by crolfer on Jun 5, 2008 11:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

In one of the, well, we'll say most unique draft projections,

Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune has the Reds taking Brian Matusz. Rogers’ top 7 is as follows:
TB: Posey
Pit: Alvarez
KC: T. Beckham
Bal: G. Beckham
SF: Smoak
Fla: Skipworth
Cin: Matusz

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2008 12:18 PM EDT 0 recs

I think the Reds would love to see that happen

They have Matusz ahead of Beckham for sure. Of course given that TB has already said they are taking T Becks…. it throws a wrench in there.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com and http://www.RedsPitchFX.com

by dougdirt on Jun 5, 2008 12:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

everyone's pretty much coalescing around the idea that the reds want beckham

he doesnt seem all that thrilling to me, although there’s a lot to like about a college junior with good defense at short who hits 24 homers in 62 games.