What happens if they do go 10-3 before the break, to get to .500? Does Jocketty panic like Krivsky did 2 years ago? Or do they stick to a long-term plan?

You said “(i)f that happens again this year then they might as well blow the team up cause it ain’t going anywhere.” In my mind, that decision (whether to blow it up or not) should have already been made, and the answer should be “yes”. They have some important decisions to make, and a little run over 2 weeks doesn’t change what this team is – lacking OF power after this year (assiming Dunn and Jr are gone), without a quality C, and without much immediate impact from the minors (all of the good players are already up). There are shiny pieces that should draw interest (Homer, Bako, Keppinger), and someone should be willing to trade value for Arroyo; as has been pointed out before, Jr might bring a prospect or salary relief, but not both.

I still don’t know what to do about Dunn. Drafting Alonso puts them in a tough position, as I’ve said before. If he’s really that close to ready, I don’t see how they can sign Dunn as he, Alonso, and Votto will be vying for 2 spots. On the other hand, not signing him leaves a gaping power hole not just for next year (presumably Alonso won’t be ready quite that fast) but beyond as well.

At this point, I have no problem with the rotation next year. Harang’s numbers will bounce back. Volquez isn’t Pedro, but should still be pretty good. Other than an ugly game vs. St Louis, Cueto seems to be back on track. Thompson’s looked good to me. I’d be OK with Arroyo coming back, but would rather see him (and his large contract) go elsewhere, especially if the organization thinks Maloney will be ready in ‘09.

Maholum and Duke. TBA on Wednesday. I was about to post something about our problems with lefties, but our splits are actually much better facing them (264/354/415) than RHPs (238/310/392) so far, unlike last year.

Search your feelings. You know this to be true!

Guys like Hopper, Hairiston, and Freel. The Reds don’t really need (w/Kepp) 3 utlilty guys and a light hitting outfielder…although they are all RH batters. Of all the players sidnanacy mentions the one who I would think that the Reds might keep is Keppinger. Who is really going to want Patterson and Griffey doesn’t have the allure that he would have earlier even this year. I agree that they probably won’t resign Dunn, although i am preparing a personal letter to Bob castellini to request that he look at the big statistical picture and resign Dunn. (Lot of good that will do!)

God knows what the problem is with AARON HARANG, I still like Bronson as a 4 or 5 but he’s only good for 5 or 6 innings. Baily should be dealt along with Bako. Bako apparantly calls a good game but he’s another LH bat that can’t hit LH pitching.

We really can’t know what year 2 will be like for the rooks. Cueto, Edinson, Thompson and even Jay Bruce have not begun to establish themselves at the level of Harang, Dunn and Brandon Phillips. Votto and EdE are poised to have strong 2008 second halves. A good roster should include:

BP, EdE, Votto, Bruce, LMM, maybe Gonzo ? Keppinger, Thompson, Volquez, Cueto, Harang, Bray, Burton, CoCo, Ross

Maybe Affeldt, Jerry Jr. and Bronson

Wishful thinking – Adam Dunn, am I leaving anyone out…it appears that 5 or 6 spots are easily up for grabs. either young guys promoted or veterens picked fron FA or trades.

STubbornly I’ve still not completely given up on 2008…Bigs ifs = Ceuto, Voltron, thompson and the return of the Good bronson and a revived Harang along with a strong 2nd half from EdE, Votto, Kepp, BP and Dunn could make things interesting. The BP looks decent, the only horrid area (other than the manager) is the Bench.

I’m sad that such an apparantly good guy as Dusty Baker seems to be (from what I’ve read and what players have said) so out of touch with the game today. He is just plain incompetent, even more than
I thought he would be…he may single handedly lose enough games through poor decision making,to make any hope for a decent showiing the 2nd half just a pipe dream (Bonged out).

The problems with our offense this season seem to stem from:
1. Lack of production from RF (Griffey, mainly) and CF (Dusty’s Butt-buddy).
2. A somewhat subpar season from Dunn. If he had his average up about 20 points, no one would be complaining, of course.
3. A bit of a regression from EdE.
4. A revolving door at SS due to injuries to everyone who plays more than 5 games at the position.
5. The catchers hitting like…well…catchers (even with witchcraft involved).

The problems with the pitching seem to have stemmed from:
1. Our #2 starter at the beginning of the season pitching like a #5 (or pitching like #2, perhaps).
2. Not being able to find anyone to fill the #5 spot without pitching like #2 for the first three months.
3. Our #1 starter at the beginning of the season being misused horribly in that 18-inning game in SD and pitching like #2 from that point on.

Interestingly, the bullpen hasn’t been the huge problem this year. The addition of Francisco Cordero seems to have moved everyone into their proper roles (Burton 8th inning, Weathers/Bray 7th inning, Affeldt/Lincoln elsewhere), and it has worked well.

I don’t see this team getting much better unless Griffey suddenly finds the fountain of youth, Harang becomes himself again and Arroyo gets back to being league average.

In the last 20 seasons, Corey Patterson has the 4th worst OBP for a player with at least 200 plate appearances. Doug Strange was in his last season in the Majors and was used mainly as a PH. When he did start, he usually batted 7th. Brandon Inge was in his rookie year as a catcher and batted 9th in all but 3 starts. Juan Bell was also a rookie and also batted 9th the entire season, but really had no business on an MLB roster.

At his recent pace, his OBP will be under .200 in 42 plate appearances.