What is Edwin Swinging At?

by Slyde on Jun 3, 2008 8:00 AM EDT in Features Comment 22 comments

Last week, I basked in my hate of Brandon Phillips and examined his area of weakness at the plate. This week, I've decided to take a look at player of whom I tend to be a fan: Edwin Encarnacion.

Encarnacion has had a down-then-up-then-down season at the plate this year. He started out the first week and a half ridiculously cold, but then he went on a tear for about a month before falling into another prolonged slump for most of May. His overall batting line (.234/.309/.411 - OPS+ of 84) definitely leaves something to be desired. And while he has stepped up his defense of late, the Reds will need his bat to come around eventually if they are going to be successful this season.

(A quick update on the graphs: The area outlined by the white box is the strike zone. The ten boxes around that zone represent the area six inches outside of the strike zone. The four thin boxes outside of that are all other pitches. Please leave questions or suggestions in the comments.)

More after the jump...

Edwin makes a lot more contact than I expected, especially from the outside corner in. However, if you stare at the graph on the left long enough, you'll notice that Encarnacion has tough time doing anything with balls out of the strike zone. Here's a breakdown in tabular format:

Location	Pit	Swing%	Contact%	BIP%	AVG	BABIP	SLG
In Zone	322	63%	88%	57%	.333	.382	.706
Out of Zone	447	30%	73%	54%	.090	.135	.173

So far this season he has put 52 pitches outside of the strike zone into play and all he has to show for it are 5 singles and 2 doubles. This is a big difference between Encarnacion and Phillips. Both hitters numbers are similar within the zone, but Phillips is batting .271/.475 outside of the strike zone. That's good for Phillips since he swings at balls out of the zone about 10% more often than Edwin.

My first thought when I saw these numbers was that Encarnacion must be swinging at more pitches outside of the zone and that is why he is struggling. In order to check this theory out, I broke out two sets of graphs. The first set is for EdE's "bad periods" from 3/31-4/8 and from 5/3-present:

Location	Pit	Swing%	Contact%	BIP%	AVG	BABIP	SLG
In Zone	192	60%	86%	55%	.227	.273	.455
Out of Zone	278	29%	70%	53%	.061	.100	.100

And then I broke out the same reports for the period from 4/10 - 5/2:

Location	Pit	Swing%	Contact%	BIP%	AVG	BABIP	SLG
In Zone	131	67%	90%	59%	.471	.511	1.000
Out of Zone	168	31%	77%	55%	.138	.182	.273

Based on these numbers, it appears that EdE is actually swinging less when he is hitting poorly - by about 9%. Obviously that's not a bad thing when the ball is out of the zone, but most of his swings are disappearing on pitches in the strike zone. This explains why he has about 5% more called strikes when he's struggling, which then explains why he seems to be getting disgusted with the umpires more lately.

So what's the deal? Well, it's hard to say as these data only show half of the picture. We can't see whether he has a hitch in his swing or if he's pulling his head out or stepping in the bucket. However, looking at these data, he may be having trouble picking up the ball out of the pitcher's hand or perhaps is having confidence issues with his strike zone judgment. This would also explain the low numbers when he's making contact as he may not be squaring the ball up well when he does swing.

Any guesses from the gallery?

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Comments

When EdE is slumping,

it does seem like he’s swinging less and with less authority. The data looks like it bears that out. My hunch is that it’s a confidence issue more than anything but it certainly could be a mechanical issue in his swing – hard to say w/o knowning more (maybe the next installment will contain video?).

Was his HR last night off a fastball? I missed it because a fat kid in front of me was puking chocolate ice cream.

I really like these posts, btw.

by ken on Jun 3, 2008 8:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes, according to PitchFX it was a fastball, though it was only going 87 MPH

The numbers above do not include last night’s game, but he hasn’t been hitting the fastball all that well this season:

Overall:
           Pit Swing%  Contact%  BIP%  BABIP    SLG
Fastball   402    44%     94%     53%   .215   .346
Slider     169    41%     68%     62%   .154   .282
Change-up  100    43%     65%     64%   .304   .652
Curveball   65    40%     73%     53%   .375   .813

This seems strange to me as I thought Edwin was a big time fastball hitter. Even when the fastball is in the strike zone, he’s not have as much success as he is on other pitches.

In the Strike Zone:
           Pit Swing%  Contact%  BIP%  BABIP    SLG
Fastball   186   63%      94%     58%   .286   .471
Slider      50   70%      80%     50%   .353   .647
Change-up   33   64%      76%     63%   .455  1.091
Curveball   29   59%      88%     53%   .667  1.444

He’s making lots of contact on the fastball, but he’s not putting it in play with much authority. Could it be a slow bat?

"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays

by Slyde on Jun 3, 2008 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow

i never would have thought edwin’s having fastball issues. i wonder if it’s a case of him sitting on changeup or sitting on curveball to compensate for what he perceives as an inability to hit those pitches, and in turn he’s just overcompensating. That’s just weird.

is there a different trend during the period when he was hitting well?

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Jun 3, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Broken out by bad and good periods

Struggling (3/31-4/8; 5/3-present)
           Pit Swing%  Contact%  BIP%  BABIP    SLG
Fastball   244   44%       94%    50%   .200   .266
Slider     104   38%       68%    59%   .188   .174
Change-up   66   44%       66%    63%   .250   .412
Curveball   36   33%       58%    43%   .333   .125

Hitting well (4/9-5/2)
           Pit Swing%  Contact%  BIP%  BABIP    SLG
Fastball   158   48%       95%    56%   .350   .522
Slider      65   46%       70%    62%   .231   .412
Change-up   34   44%       67%    60%   .667  1.333
Curveball   29   48%       86%    58%   .714  1.500

I didn’t talk about this before because I was sloppy, but we shouldn’t forget the sample size factor in all of this. For instance, the difference in the number of balls in play between curveballs in the top table compared to the bottom table is 5 total balls in play. Plus, I’m not sure the same rules apply to BABIP at this level of exploration, but there is assuredly some factor of luck that plays in all of this.

CORRECTION on table above: BABIP is actually plain old batting average on the tables in my previous comment (about fastballs in response to ken). I was using the wrong version of my spreadsheet. The table in this comment actually holds BABIP.

"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays

by Slyde on Jun 3, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

is he sitting on changeups?

that would help explain his success on changeups and (hanging?) curveballs when things are going well. But when things are going poorly, the changeup and curveball are still the only pitches he’s hitting moderately well, but he’s getting no power on the curveballs. That might suggest to me he’s sitting change and making a late adjustment on the curve, and doing enough with it to get it through the infield. when things are going well he can catch up to the fastball, and when things are going poorly he’s getting blown away. He’s getting beat on sliders all the time.

this would be kinda disconcerting news if it were true, since 55-60 percent of the pitches he sees are fastballs. Sit red, edwin!

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Jun 3, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i was looking for you in the stands

figured you’d be there. guess they didn’t want to show fat kids puking on tv.

going to all the games?

when edwin is cold, he looks clueless at the plate. his mechanics are all messed up. he’s twisting around and doesn’t look comfortable. i wonder if he needs his eyes checked. (seriously. watch his eyes while he’s up. he seems to be squinting more than i remember. could have been all that white stuff floating in the air in cincy, though.)

I like Jay.

by Daedalus on Jun 3, 2008 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eyes

I thought of that too, but I don’t think it’d explain his inconsistency. Eyes shouldn’t slump. Still, maybe Kremchek needs to dust off the ol’ eye poker.

I’m going tomorrow and maybe Thursday, now that Homer’s starting. Not going tonight.

by ken on Jun 3, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"ol' eye poker"

its clever enough, but ive been laughing about this for the past 5 minutes. i keep imagining Dr. Tim going back to his dusty closet and digging around for a jagged stick, while Edwin sits anxious and half-naked on the examination table. it really shouldnt be this funny, but damn if it isnt!

If you don't get a good-night kiss, you get Kafka dreams.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 3, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs