Ten years ago today, Bubba Crosby became a pro baseball player, when he signed with the Dodgers. He was a first round draft pick (number 23 overall), and got a million bucks for signing on the dotted line. He was seen as a five-tool player, and many were surprised he fell as low as he did. Baseball America picked him as the 12th best prospect in the nation, the 6th best college prospect, and the #1 college outfielder.

Alas, his pro career did not unfold as expected. With the recent news that Bubba has retired, and the current excitement over the new batch of draftees, I decided to look back at the Class of '98, and see how they did.

Well, at least Bubba made it to the big leagues. Eight of the 1998 first round draft picks (just over one-quarter) did not. Some didn't make it past A-ball.

The number one pick that year was Pat Burrell. The Phillies have to be happy with that pick. He was in the majors and producing only two years later. Number 2 was Mark Mulder, another good pick.

At number three, we have...Corey Patterson. Hmmm. Gotta think the Cubs would pick someone else if they got a do-over.

At number four, we have Jeff Austin. He did reach the majors, but had a short and not terribly impressive career. The Royals eventually traded him (with Brian Shackelford) to Cincinnati for Damaso Espino and Alan Moye. The Reds released him a year later.

At number 5 was JD Drew, a good pick by the Cards. He was playing with the big club that very year.

At number 6, the Twins picked Ryan Mills. He didn't make it to the big leagues.

Numbers 7 & 8 are a couple of familiar names: Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez.

At number 9 was Sean Burroughs (called "The Bachelor" - because he could only hit singles). He was seen as a disappointment, and seems to be out of baseball now.

At number 10 was one of the most interesting picks: Carlos Pena. I guess you could call him a late bloomer. He seemed to be a dud. He was traded and released by several teams, including the Yankees (who badly needed a first baseman at the time). He had to settle for a non-roster invite to Rays spring training in 2007, his age 29 year. But he played so well he not only made the team - they signed him to a 3-year, $24 million contract the next year. (I have to wonder if they'll regret that. He seems to have fallen back to earth this season.)

As for the rest of the list...there are some familiar names (Jeff Weaver, Brad Lidge, Kip Wells, CC Sabathia), as well as many that aren't exactly household names. (Like the Yankees' pick, one Andy Brown, who basically played A-ball for the Yankees for seven years.)

I guess this is what they mean when they say there's no such thing as a can't-miss prospect. I wonder if they're any better at judging talent now than they were 10 years ago. A brief glance at other years suggests not, but it's a very small sample size, given that it's too early to tell how the more recent draft years will shape up.