Closer Usage

by BLee2525 on Jun 14, 2008 8:16 PM EDT Comment 7 comments

While watching Mike Lincoln, in his 2nd inning of work, give up the game-winning HR's in the 10th this afternoon despite Francisco Cordero sitting in the bullpen, the issue of closer usage came up in the game thread. BubbaFan, like some MLB managers, advocated bringing your closer in for the 9th or 10th inning of a tie game at home. At that point, if your offense gains a lead, it's a walk-off, and there's nothing for a closer to do. I advocated an even broader use of the closer; use him in almost all tie games, regardless of home or road situation, instead of the 1-inning, 3-run saves.

Well, that sent me to Cordero's game logs to check Dusty's usage of Cordero against where I would use him. Obviously, hindsight is 20/20, but I'll try to be objective and look at the game situation at the time to determine where I might differ from Dusty in my bullpen philosophy.

Games I would not have used Cordero where Dusty did:
5/31 (1 inning, 2 run defecit)
4/10 (1 inning, 3 run lead. Send Weathers, Bray or Affeldt in with that kind of lead.)
4/13 (1 inning, 8 run defecit)
4/16 (1 inning, 9 run defecit)
4/24 (1 inning, 2 run defecit)
5/3 (1 inning, 8 run defecit)
5/10 (1 inning, 8 run lead)
5/24 (1 inning, 5 run lead)
5/27 (0.1inning, 3 run lead)
6/9 (1 inning, 5 run lead)
6/12 (1 inning, 4 run lead)

Games I would have used Cordero, where Dusty did not:
4/8 @ Mil, Bottom 9. Reds tie it up on a Patterson HR in the top of the 9th. I would bring Cordero in to hold the tie. Could have changed the outcome, too, as Dusty went to Weathers in the 10th, and he gave up 3 hits and a run to blow it.
4/11 @ Pit, Bottom 8. Down 1-0, I'd bring Cordero in 1) because he hadn't worked in 3 days, and 2) to hold the score where it was to see if we can get the offense going. Ultimately, it didn't matter, as the Reds didn't score in the top of the 9th.
4/12 @ Pit, Bottom 8. Down 4-3 in the game, down 2-0 in the series. Bring Cordero in to hold it down, and see if I can steal one. This one didn't end up mattering, either.
4/19 vs. Mil, Top 9. I'd have used him for a 2nd inning here. He hadn't pitched in 2 days, and this was a tie game going to extras. Weathers blew the lead by giving up 2 runs in the 10th.
4/25 @ SF, Bottom 8. Down 1-0 at this point, and Cordero hasn't worked in almost a week. This is a no-brainer. This one could have changed the outcome, as Harang started the 8th, giving up a run, and turned it over to Burton, who allowed another Giants' runner to score. The Reds' run in the top of the 9th would have tied it if those other 2 didn't score first.
5/19 @ LA, Bottom 9. Tie game on the road. This one could have mattered, as the Dodgers scored against Weathers to win it in that inning.
6/2 @ Phi, Bottom 8. Down 5-4, I'd have brought him in here. Wouldn't have mattered, as Weathers didn't give up a run, and the Reds didn't score in the top of the 9th.

So, that's 12 games Dusty used Cordero where I would not have, and 7 games where I would have used Cordero and Dusty did not. Of Dusty's 12, 6 of them were losses that would not have changed. I highly doubt that we would blow more than 1 of those 6 big leads he used Cordero for. Of course, if it got dicey with one of my second tier guys trying to close out a 3-run lead, I could probably bring in Cordero.

On the other hand, I count 4 games where I could swing the outcome by bringing in Cordero in a situation where most managers would not go to their closer.

It's crazy to me that "old-school" guys say they don't pay attention to stats, but let a stat govern when they use their best reliever. My way, you've used him 5 fewer times at this point in the season, but had the chance to turn 4 losses into wins instead of wasting him for 3, 4, 5, or 8 run leads that Brian B could probably close out, and TheC definitely could.

Who's with me?

(Edit: Dusty used Cordero on 4/19, but didn't stick with him in the 10th. I read that game wrong initially, and had it on both lists)

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In my defense

I’m not actually a believer in the “tie game at home” rule. It’s caused me endless frustration as a Yankees fan. (Torre’s a big believer.) I want the closer used in high-leverage situations, period.

However, that’s a bit much to expect of an old-school guy like Dusty. Using his closer in a tie game at home, though…it’s not too much to expect. Why didn’t he? If Joe “Pushbutton” Torre does it, why not Dusty?

Maybe because Cordero had been used two days in a row. And while in hindsight, it’s easy to say Cordero shouldn’t have been used on 6/12, he’d been three days without pitching. Dusty probably put him in so he could get some work, and I can’t fault him for that.

How does Cordero pitch when he goes three days in a row? Is it worse than Lincoln on his second inning?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jun 14, 2008 9:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

I didn’t mean to paint you as a strict proponent of the “tie game at home” rule. More just relaying the converstation we had to give a little context for the FanPost. A little back-and-forth with the audience, you know?

I just have a big problem when Cordero’s “needs some work” appearances are when he’s completely (or, at least, mostly) irrelevant to the outcome of the game. Meanwhile, we’re using David Weathers in extra innings, and losing games we should be giving ourselves an opportunity to win.

And, yes, Cordero on his 3rd straight day is better than Lincoln in his 2nd inning.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Jun 14, 2008 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

aren't two of his blown saves

in three days in a row situation?

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Jun 14, 2008 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i caught the end of the game

and my eyes rolled a number of times during this one. when i heard Wakefield had thrown 80-some pitches through 7 innings, when CoPat pinch hit and did his cute little one-pitch-one out routine, but especially when Lincoln ran out there for his second inning. most of the time when Duh-sty does this kind of shit, i whine a bit but then i let it roll. i mean, its easy for me to second guess when im watching on cable, right? i like to bitch about it, especially here at RR, because my wife has stopped listening. but i just let it go because most dumb managers would do exactly what he did. nothing i can do about that. but this one was different. Coco was already loose. Lincoln looked good in his one inning, but come on. dont press your luck. going to Coco for the 10th was a no-brainer. i really hate Dusty. managers dont usually have an impact on the W-L record, but in this instance the L clearly falls on Dusty’s shoulders. jackass.

If you don't get a good-night kiss, you get Kafka dreams.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 14, 2008 11:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Burton

has looked awesome for most of this year, even better than Cordero. Cordero will always be used in accordance with the modern closer customs, but as long as Burton is saved for only high-leverage situations we should be okay. It seems like Fistbands has used Burton properly this year.

WRT to yesterday, the mistake was using Cordero two games prior when we had a four run lead (the last game on your incorrect usage list). But given that he had gone the prior two games, it was prudent to hold him back yesterday. I’d be hesitant to send Cordero out for a third straight night given our investment in him, his age, and prior shoulder problems. It would’ve been nice to have Burton available but he had also gone the prior two games (and was used correctly; he entered the 6/12 game when it was tied). It was unfortunate that he couldn’t go last night.

I’ll bet the 18 inning game loomed in the back of Dusty’s mind last night. He may have wanted to milk another inning out of Lincoln just in case he had another marathon on his hands.

by ken on Jun 15, 2008 10:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs