What is Brandon Phillips swinging at? This time with graphs!
by Slyde on May 29, 2008 11:37 AM EDT
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Al Behrman/AP
Last time I looked at what players were swinging at I used the excellent, free, and easily accessible data from FanGraphs. It wasn't enough for me though, so I decided to get a little more raw. After being internally wishy-washy for the first month and a half of the season, I finally broke down and gathered up some Pitch FX data from MLB.com's GameDay system. Let me show you what I think I've found about Brandon Phillips.
NOTE: PitchFX data is a different source than FanGraphs data, so there will be some variation. Also, there are some "missing pitches" within PitchFX - presumably when the system was not working properly - so there will be some slight variation because of that as well.
Take a look after the jump...
Phillips was really the impetus for me to get into this data. It seems to me that he swings at a lot of bad balls and I wanted to find out if it was true or if it was my seething hatred of all things Brandon Phillips (right, chandrathan?). It turns out there is some evidence behind my perceptions.
This graph shows how often a hitter makes contact on a swing at a pitch in a specific zone. Red means the hitter makes high contact in that area. Blue is a low contact area. (NOTE: Contact includes foul balls.) White means no swings have been registered on pitches in that area. BIP means the rate of swings that put balls into play. BA is the hitter's batting average on balls thrown into that zone. SLG is the hitter's slugging percentage in that zone.
In order to add context to the first graph, I've added this graph to show how often a hitter sees a pitch (P) in a specific zone as well as how often they swing (S). Green areas are zones that the hitter frequently swings in. Orange areas see very few swing attempts by the hitter.
Both of the above graphs are oriented from the catcher's perspective.
So, if you're not confused yet, let's move on...
Two things stick out to me. First of all, Phillips kills the ball in the strike zone. He makes contact on 85% of his swings in the zone. And when he puts the ball in play, he rakes - .392 avg, .716 slugging. I don't know how that compares to the league, but it seems dangerous to me.
The second thing that I noticed is that Phillips makes very good contact on pitches from the outside edge of the plate in. Based upon the few players that I've looked at, this looks fairly common and it makes sense. The big difference for Phillips is that he swings at a lot of pitches off the plate as well.
You'll notice that I highlighted the area low and outside the zone. Phillips is getting killed there. Over those 4 highlighted boxes combined, Phillips has seen 179 pitches, swinging at 87 of them (49%). He's only put bat on ball for 44 of those swings (51%) and only 19 of those contacts went into play. That means 78% of the time he's swinging at those pitches, it goes for a strike - and these are pitches that should be balls. That leaves him with a batting average of .167 and a slugging percentage of .194 on pitches in the highlighted area.
BP - let those pitches go! They are balls. You want to make that leap to being Barry Larkin? Stop swinging at pitches in that area and you'll get there quickly. Force the pitcher to throw it over the plate. You devour those pitches. And if that happens, I may even start to like you.
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I love these graphs.
It tells me quite a bit about a hitter. I have to get used to seeing them from the catcher’s perspective, rather than the pitcher’s, though.
Just to nitpick, I wish the one-foot zone was broken down into smaller units (maybe 6-inches outside the strike zone). MLB hitters have no business swinging at anything 12 inches off the plate, unless it’s a suicide squeeze.
This is a tremendoous tool for hitters and pitchers alike. Thanks, Slyde.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on May 29, 2008 12:05 PM EDT reply actions
I'll work on refining the graphs
good point of the outside the zone. I’ll see what I can do.
Pitch FX data is from the catcher’s perspective, so that’s what we’re stuck with.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
actually, now that I think about it
I can swap the graph pretty easily so that it is from the pitcher’s perspective. Would people prefer that?
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
I've never looked at one of these before
but it makes more sense to me to view it from the catcher’s (and the batter’s) perspective. Maybe it’s all that MVP baseball 05 i used to play.
Bruce Bonser? Boone Bonser? Boot Bonser? BOOSE BONZER?
Not to mention
All the words would be backwards from the pitcher’s perspective…
Bruce Bonser? Boone Bonser? Boot Bonser? BOOSE BONZER?
ya know what would help?
A littlw picture of the batter, whichever perspective it would be from.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
I prefer it from the catcher's POV
That’s how Fox Sports Hot Zone does it, and I guess I’m used to it that way.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
BTW
BP has swung at 4 of 84 pitches that didn’t fit on the graph.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
One of those was a pick off attempt to first
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by Man Mountain on May 29, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
that one gets me every time.
rec’d.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
I've updated the graphs
Let me know if they are better or worse than previously.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
since it's just a silhouette
without you saying so, it could be a lefty batter from the pitcher’s perspective, instead of a righty from the catcher’s.
I am Bill S. Preston, Esquire.
we all know that Joe Pesci hits right handed
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by Man Mountain on May 29, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I figured everyone knew that Brandon Phillips bats right handed.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
sure that applies in THIS case
but it won’t in all cases!! mark my words!!
I am Bill S. Preston, Esquire.
Why the dislike for BP?
I apologize if I’ve missed it previously and I’m certainly not a Phillips apologist.
Is it his surly, off-field attitude? (where he seems to fancy himself a much better player than he’s shown on the diamond) or issues strictly limited to his on-field performance? Maybe both? Maybe this is a huge joke, everybody loves him and I’m the only one not catching on. Wouldn’t be the first time.
Thanks.
ill let slyde speak for himself
but i am hesitant to throw my full love and devotion to phillips because of his relatively low on-base percentage, and a swing that is long as the day is… long.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
It's sort of a running joke
I’m not a big fan of Phillips, but I appreciate what he does well. At a game last year it was decided that since i wasn’t willing to praise every little thing he does, then I must hate him. Ergo, I hate Brandon Phillips.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
My beef with phillips is somewhat unfair to him
Most of it is my frustration at his lack of plate discipline. If he got his OBP up and cut down on gidps, he would be an incredible all-around player.
I worry sometimes, however, that I’m guilty of doing to BP what other Reds fans do to Adam Dunn: namely, focus on things he doesn’t do well instead of the things he does do well. I will say in my defense that I’ve never thought that BP should be benched or clamored for him to be traded or “cut.”
A small part of my frustration is based on the way Marty and Jeff used him as a club to beat Dunn with last season, which isn’t BP’s fault either.
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by Man Mountain on May 29, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I find that most of the time, when I have a problem with a player
it’s usually that I have a problem with how the announcers excessively build up a that player to be something they are not. Any issue that I have with BP is a direct result of that. For instance, last night Brantley was going out of his way to heap praise on BP. He said at one time, “Let’s not forget who started this youth movement in Cincinnati – Brandon Phillips.” This was in the middle of a conversation about players like Votto, Bruce, Cueto and Volquez. All of whom are at least 3 years younger than Phillips. There was no reason to bring him up, but Brantley slurps on Phillips every chance he gets, even if he has to create the chance.
As you said, this isn’t Phillips’s fault, but it’s usually why I react negatively to him. I think you said it best earlier this year when you said that the announcers talk of Phillips as a finished product when he definitely has some things he can work on at the plate. That’s all I was trying to show with this post. I think Phillips is a very good player, especially for a second baseman. But the announcers act like he is Barry Larkin, and he’s just not there yet. With some minor adjustments though, he could get alot closer. Can you imagine how good he would be if he could learn to take a few more walks just by laying off those low and away pitches?
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
Given the choice of anybody - Utley
Given the choice of anybody on the Reds – nobody.
I definitely wouldn’t trade Phillips unless someone wanted to go beyond his value to the Reds. It’s hard to find players like Phillips, but that doesn’t mean that he’s a finished product.
why do you hate america?
I guess it’s because I’m an elitist.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
I don't think so
The Yankees have a homegrown All-Star second baseman…who is five years younger than Utley.
And I like skinny guys. ;-)
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I'm okay, Buck Coats. You?
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by Man Mountain on May 29, 2008 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Edwar Ramirez...
...is 6’ 3”, 150 lbs.
When the Yankees game was in rain delay a couple of days ago, beat reporter Peter Abraham said, “It’s so windy, Edwar has been sent into the clubhouse.”
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
"Let’s not forget who started this youth movement in Cincinnati – Brandon Phillips."
But don’t you think that statement is somewhat true? The context was a youth movement and he and Encarnacion were the first ones on the field in this most recent movement. I agree he gets a little slurpy on BP. Do I think he is the best 2nd baseman in the NL? Nope, but he has the potential to do so if he keeps working hard. And you are right, Brando would be scary if he can develop enough plate discipline to garner more walks and lay off the bad pitches.
I’m finally excited again about the future of Reds baseball.
Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds
BP is a year younger than Dunn
And I wouldn’t say Dunn deserves that credit either. I think BP coming to the Reds is completely unrelated to the current crop of young players. That’s why it was so odd that Brantley brought him up.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
too much focus on things players don't do well
i think you’re right. but in the typical everything-any-announcer-says-is-bad way, people were ready to pounce on it and twist it to mean something more than it does.
so people enjoy watching brandon phillips play. phillips is an exciting player to watch, and it shouldn’t be a crime to love him. as fans, shouldn’t we get excited about our players? why is it wrong when an announcer does? how come no one complains about announcers drooling over bruce? he’s not perfect, either. (but very close! :) no one complains about the praise votto gets from brantley and thom. and totally ignored is all of the praise thom, chris, and brantley pour on edwin. (look at me, i’m complaining about complaining. i must be a reds fan.)
brandon phillips is already one of the top three or four second basemen in the NL. we could have someone like pokey reese instead. phillips IS still young, and he can only get better. look at how do-no-wrong dunn (ha! see what i did there? i used bold for no reason.) has improved this year in terms of beating the shift, bettering his defense, etc.
i know the slyde hates bp is a joke, but it’s gained traction and we’re starting to hear echoing by some who don’t seem to understand it’s a joke. oh, and thanks for the graphs. interesting stuff. here’s a question – are these numbers similar to last year?
Didn't intend to start a cat fight.
Can’t we all just get along?
Jokes gaining traction?
Wait til someone says something about your mom.
by Brendanukkah on May 29, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It's not the praise
It’s excessive, unbalanced praise that is my gripe.. I love it when an announcer gives a balanced perspective on a player. For instance, I find that I’m defending Dunn less this year and I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that the announcers are pointing out both the good and the bad, rather than just focusing on the strikeouts. Well, the TV announcers are, I’ve stopped listening to the radio calls. As for the other players you’ve mentioned – Bruce has only been here 2 games and hasn’t done a whole lot wrong. I’ve heard both good and bad on Votto, and I think all of it is fair. And I think they’ve been balanced on Edwin as well. When he messes up, they point out what he did wrong. When he succeeds, they emphasize why he was successful. That’s the kind of balance I like to hear from announcers.
I don’t hear any criticism on Phillips though. Maybe I just feel the need to balance out the announcer’s voice. I probably tend to be overly critical of players on whom they heap praise, just as I tend to excessively defend guys that I are wrongly criticized. I still root for the Reds, but there has to be something to do during the 21 hours a day they aren’t playing, right?
And I want to emphasize that this post was not intended to be an attack on Phillips. He was just the first person that I looked at and it seemed plain to me that he was hurting himself on low and outside pitches. I hope to be able to see stuff like that with other players because the whole idea of doing this kind of analysis is to see what we can learn about a player’s tendencies.
I don’t know how these numbers compare to last season. I haven’t downloaded the limited data from last year yet. If I get around to it, I’ll put in a comment.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
I dunno
I hear you, but I thought this was spot on:
wanna hear my slyde impression? I’m glad we tied it up, but why did it have to be Phillips?by chandrathan on May 17, 2008 5:41 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
really?
Is that what I sound like? I don’t feel like I dog on him that much. And I definitely don’t root against him.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
no that's not how you sound
your hate is much more rational…
i just thought it was funny
When it comes to Phil Mickelson...Marty's not a fan.
by chandrathan on May 30, 2008 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes!
The Brantley thing from last night is a perfect example. I was thinking the same thing…what in the hell does Phillips have to do with any of these guys? Brantley is a knob.
I also agree that with a little more work, Phillips could become a Barry Larkin type, but do you think Phillips realizes or appreciates this? Based purely on anedotal evidence, I get the sense he’s awfully sure of himself and his abilities.
Ending a sentence with a preposition.
Since your post’s title has a sentence that ends in a preposition, I thought i would pass along a joke one of my professors once told in class. There once was a West Sider who was accepted to Harvard. Upon arriving on campus, he found himself lost and asked for directions. “Can you tell me where the library is at?” he asked. The man replied, “Don’t you know you shouldn’t end a sentence in a preposition?” The West Sider the said, “Oh, I’m sorry, can you tell me where the library is at, asshole?”
Speaking of the French Open
There are few phrases in the English language that have me diving for the remote faster than “Dick Enberg video essay”
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i cant believe how many of the pitches he swings at
that are in the zone vertically but outside 61 percent. If I’m a pitcher, I pound that zone.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
thankfully, it's not that easy
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
throwing in the 6 inches off the plate where BP will usually swing but not make good contact
If the pitcher messes up and leaves it over the plate, he’s gonna have a problem.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
I wonder
if swinging at balls outside of the zone is an issue of pitch recognition or pig-headedness. Strike zone judgment can be improved but isn’t easy. But if it’s just a matter of BP thinking “I’m Brandon Phillips. Nobody can touch my plate coverage!” then the coaches need to talk to him (and maybe show these graphs). We probably have the wrong manager for this task.
I've heard from a reliable source
that the organization has been trying to get him to stop swinging at everything for a couple of years. The way it was phrased to me was something along the lines of “Brandon thinks he can hit anything, but he can’t and he’s getting himself out.” This was one person’s perception of the situation – and it could still be bad pitch recognition disguised as cockiness – but it does indicate that the Reds recognize the issue of his aggressiveness.
That’s why I focused on the low-and-away area because even when it’s in the strike zone, he’s not doing much with those pitches. Even if pitch recognition is the issue, he should recognize that those pitches aren’t ones that he can do much with, and unless there are 2 strikes he can afford to let them go. Then again, I have a feeling that a lot of those pitches are probably sliders from right-handers and maybe he’s just not picking up the spin.
I don’t pretend to think that a change would be easy, but I would think that the easiest kind of change would be to eliminate a whole area as a swing possibility and take your chances with the other 3/4ths of the zone.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
was that same reliable source that put sawyer in the coffin?
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by Man Mountain on May 30, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
dude
I hadn’t watched it yet. fuck.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
you started it
by posting the Reds PECOTA for this season.
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by Man Mountain on May 30, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
apparently no one else did either
lowest rated in history!
When it comes to Phil Mickelson...Marty's not a fan.
by chandrathan on May 30, 2008 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't trust ratings like I used to
not until they start including DVR watches with the weekly ratings. Pretty much everything I watch these days is recorded, and I know that is become the norm for a lot of people.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
if youre a nielsen home and you dvr a program
does that not count toward its total? i would have thought it would.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
I don't know
but I read somewhere that time shifting programs is throwing off the accuracy of the ratings. So I guess it doesn’t count. FWIW, Tivo and Nielsen are working together to track Tivo’d programs, but that still doesn’t include the myriad other DVR systems.
I think the real problem is that I can be watching a previously recorded show (say, Thomas & Friends) while I record two other shows (say, Lost and Sir Humpsalot does Lady Inherrear) and Nielsen wouldn’t be able to accurately say what I was watching during that hour. And that’s what matters for commercial sales.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
True, but...
...it’s watching “live” that counts. Because if you’re watching via DVR, you’re probably skipping the commercials. Which are the only reason they care about ratings.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I agree
i usually watch via iTunes or ABC’s website. Very few Lost viewers I know watch it in “real time.”
I do think, however, that Lost probably lost some steam in Season 2 (meandering) and because of the writers’ strike this season. I would be willing to bet that it’s also lost a fair number of viewers due to the deemphasis of the romantic plot lines in favor of sci-fi stuff.
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by Man Mountain on May 30, 2008 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
season 2 really killed their audience. What’s funny is that my sister-in-law, who watched the DVDs said that Season 2 was awesome when watched all in a row. So I guess the meandering storyline just doesn’t translate well to a weekly episodic medium.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
i watched season 2 via DVD
and I thought it dragged. The flashback-reveal formula just got to be annoying.
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by Man Mountain on May 30, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
i watched everything on DVD
and online back-to-back up until the middle of this past season. season 2 nearly turned me off completely. its been great ever since though. i did feel like the writer’s strike really put the crunch on this season though. the finale had a hell of alot of stuff happening that i thought could have been spread out over a few episodes. it made for a hell of a finale though!
If you don't get a good-night kiss, you get Kafka dreams.
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 30, 2008 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
do you guys recommend i go back and buy all the dvds and watch through?
ive never seen an episode and dont know anything about the show other than it’s supposed to be really good and is about getting deserted or something. I’m on my fourth go-around watching sopranos. should i just go buy season one?
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
rent the first few episodes of season one
by midway through the first half of the season you’ll either be hooked or “meh”. If you decide to go on from there, stick with it because the last half of season 3 and all of season 4 are outstanding.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
You bloggers and your "sources"
Seriously, it’s good to hear that the team recognizes the problem. It’s bad to hear that BP is tuning out the advice. I was in favor his his contract, but the downside is that he doesn’t have the same incentive to listen to the coaching staff.
I have a feeling that a lot of those pitches are probably sliders from right-handers and maybe he’s just not picking up the spin
This makes sense – is there a way to check with your data?
real quick
Here’s BP against sliders (according to Gameday’s pitch recognition software, which is not without it’s flaws):
So, of the 179 pitches in the highlighted area, 63 were sliders (52%). Of the 87 swings in those areas, 35 were sliders (40%). The only real difference is that he’s made little to no contact on those sliders, but that’s to be expected. However, it doesn’t look like he is chasing them any more than any other pitch.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
Isn't the solution to Brandon's problem just a longer bat?
A hockey stick might do the trick too… just flip it so it bends down and outside.
I’m sure Votto could help Brandon pick out a good one.
Tanzen!
by Verka Serduchka on May 30, 2008 2:38 PM EDT reply actions
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