The 2008 Cincinnati Reds Aren't A Very Good Baseball Team

Maybe the first month of the season has been a fluke, but as things stand right now I have to say that I'm more pessimistic than optimistic when it comes to the 2008 Cincinnati Reds. I'm pretty sure we're not going to be seeing a cover like the one above this November. Here's my reasoning:
- Paul Bako is going to get a lot worse. All the credit in the world to the guy for what he's done so far, but he's going to be 36 in June and he has a lifetime OPS+ of 64. He's never slugged over .358 in his career, and he's currently at .507 for the season. A lot of 0-3s are on the way.
- Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Votto, and Jeff Keppinger have all been as good as we could have hoped, so I don't see improvement coming from those three.
- Aaron Harang probably is going to fall back to earth a little bit. I'm holding out some hope that he's on his way to a career year, but more than likely he's going to finish at his customary 3.75 or so ERA, which means he's been pitching over his head for the first month.
- Ken Griffey Jr. might be simply slumping, but he is killing the Reds hitting third. Griffey and then Phillips seems like it's an automatic two outs time after time after time.
- The bullpen, for being a Reds bullpen, has been great. Todd Coffey was really bad, but that problem's been fixed. I can't see it getting much better.
- The rotation, for being a Reds rotation, has also been great. I think Arroyo (assuming he's not hurt or anything) will get a lot better, but if the Reds aren't winning now with how decent the pitching has been than that doesn't bode well for the future.
- The roster construction this season is probably the poorest I have ever seen, which is pretty amazing given the past seven years. Any of the current problems would be excusable if they were singular, but when you add up the two lefthanded firstbaseman, the three catchers (Javier Valentin has had 6 at bats since April 17th), carrying Freel and Hopper, and then Freel and Hairston ... it's just too much. Pretty much every team is going to have weak spots, but the Reds seem to actively seek them out. Corey Patterson hitting leadoff and playing center field day in and day out is another great example.
This isn't the end of the world. A lot of smart people have been pointing towards 2009 as the Reds year to start contending again. But while I know that's always made sense, I still had hope that things might fall the Reds way in 2008. Not looking like that's going to happen.
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I see Mr Bruce
coming shortly after memorial Day and probably Mr. Bailey. It is a shame to waste pretty decent pitching like they have been doing. And Mr. Dunn won’t be worth a bad reliever in trade if he doesn’t get going and soon.
The bright spot of the season might be watching to see how the Cubs will Cubs things up this year.
Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds
by Caleb on
May 3, 2008 12:04 AM EDT
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...and 3 men left on base
A few years ago, when the Reds were down in the dumps late in the season, I saw the stat that we actually had a lower batting average with men in scoring position. I haven’t seen the stats, but doesn’t it seem like we have this same problem every year?
We change managers, players, even the stadium. But one thing doesn’t seem to change: We put men on but they don’t score.
Where have you gone, Johnny Vander Meer?
by jgoodfri on
May 3, 2008 12:06 AM EDT
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Numbers
The Reds’ total line this season is .251/.322/.411
WIth RISP it’s .261/.331/.384
Definitely an antisocial type. Woof, woof, woof! That's my other dog imitation.
by Man Mountain on
May 3, 2008 12:22 PM EDT
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Here's what's puzzling to me..
The Reds’ total line is .251/.322/.411 (and 4.13 rpg)
The entire National League’s line is .256/.330/.404 (and 4.55 rpg)
(BTW the 11-19 Padres line is .225/.296/.333 …Yikes!)
It seems to me that with the Reds’ line so close to the league averages (aside from the rpg stats), the Reds should be closer to .500. Closer.
I contend that Bronson Arroyo, Josh Fogg and Matt Belisle have done more to hurt the Reds this season than the underperforming hitters (Dunn included!) in Dusty’s poorly constructed lineups.
I don't know how to paint a banana gourd to look like a Power Ranger.
by Fat Vegas Alan on
May 3, 2008 2:46 PM EDT
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dont give up hope yet
common its only may, lets at least give them till the all-star break to start the ‘09 or bust slogan
"God has blessed me and I will continue to do my best for him. This is more important than anything I could do in baseball." -Albert Pujols
by shortstopv2 on
May 3, 2008 2:15 AM EDT
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J. Bruce will be a good addition
Homer who knows?
Patterson will continue to flounder.
Freel is best used as a utility guy.
NoHo is a good 4th or 5th OF.
Keppinger can hit and field reasonable well but would be better for the defense at 2b or 3b.
Jr. is well Jr., not a bad guy, but no real on the field leader, his best days are long gone.
Phillips is a loose cannon at the bat and in the dugout. I would trade him while he’s tradable.
Dunn needs to wake up and get aggresive, be moved up in the line up. has the capablility of leading on the field, at the plate and in the clubhouse. He is an extremely valuable asset that is not being utilized or groomed to his use.
EdE needs to be moved up maybe as high as 3rd, RF should be his immediate future.
Votto is the real deal, move him up to 4th or 5th let him stretch out, Solid doubles hitter, good at his position
Bako, Ross and Javy:
Bako is a place holder, I wish him no ill, but we can’t win w/him as the everyday Catcher
Ross has had his carreer year and he not a leader offensively
Javy has got to get enough bats to stay sharp to PH
Hairston is good utility guy but is barely more than a AAAA player
Hatteberg is wasting away. Stick a fork in him annd trade him or release him, he can’t PH
Alex Gonzalez’s approach to hitting reminds me a lot of BP, we’ve only room for 1 loose cannon.
For this team to turn it around there has to be offensive leadership. That mean some serious roster changes. If Castellini wants to win this year the he and Jocko has better make a trade ot two.I don’t know all of the available players on other teams but Grif and BP amd a prospect or two might just get a solid RH bat at 3b or catcher.
A roster that might breath some energy into this team:
1b Votto
2b Keppinger
3b _ (Maybe Paul; Janish)
SS Gonzo
LF Dunn
CF Bruce
RF EdE
C _ (we need s RH banger)
Bench: Freel, NoHo, Javy, Jerry Jr
Pen is Fine
Rotation Fine – If Belisle struggles give Homer another try. If someone out there is interested in Bailey throw him in with Grifey and BP…we need to get a big RH bat a name player.
That’s what this arm chair GM would do.
this kind of Roster would allow Dusty to play a team that doesn’t have to rely on the HR or big hit to win. I see more balance and more consistent offense from a line without Patterson, Phillips and Patterson.
Yes SS2 it is only May but this team has the same lack of spark that the 2007 club had and the pitching is so much better, why then are not we winning.
(EDITOR’S NOTE – IT IS VERY LATE AND i’M NOT WEARING ME SPECTACLES – FORGIVE MY SPEELING)
"There's more to being in the big leagues than just stats. Everyone is so stat-conscious." Dusty Baker
by Madville on
May 3, 2008 2:52 AM EDT
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what the hell is this "offensive leadership"?
The Dusty Path to the World Series!*
*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.
by justin007000 on
May 3, 2008 9:47 AM EDT
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I don't know how to paint a banana gourd to look like a Power Ranger.
by Fat Vegas Alan on
May 3, 2008 10:03 AM EDT
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Offensive leadership is displayed by players who are disciplined and yet agressive while at bat.
Offensive leadership means having a as complete of an AB as possible;
Remaining within one’s abilities, showing patience, being able to hit the ball the other way, not missing signs, being aware of the count, knowing the strengths of the pitcher your up against. Being aware of the the strength’s and weaknesses of any baserunners, and swinging at balls pitched in the strike zone – knowing that you’ll probably only get one or at best two decent pitches in a PA. Offensive leadership is also demonstrated by confidence and intensity – Josh Hamilton has it, Barry Bonds had, Pete, Joe, Tony and George had it. Adam Dunn could have it, Keppinger has it, Rich Aurillia is very disciplined and get the most out of every at bat – Hatteberg had it last year, Sean Casey too.
BP doesn’t have the discipline (yet?)Griffey used to but now seems more mentally disconnected, Gonzo is all over the place. Votto is getting it, better everyday. I think we’ll see it develop quickly in J. Bruce.
Offensive leadership means going to the plate with an idea of who you’re hitting against, what the situation is on every pitch and keeping your focus.Tthis is not being ‘clutch’ OL is having a very professional AB EVERY time you’re at bat.
"There's more to being in the big leagues than just stats. Everyone is so stat-conscious." Dusty Baker
by Madville on
May 3, 2008 10:57 AM EDT
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Well
I just don’t think that lineup can compete.
That is worse than the Brewers and Cubs and about even with the Astros and Cards. We would need our pitching to pick up some major slack.
by kennythered on
May 3, 2008 11:19 AM EDT
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Yeah this is no surprised to me
When you rank in the bottom in the NL in pitching and hitting…you are not a very good team.
Norris Hopper's #1 fan!!!
by Zach K on
May 3, 2008 7:58 AM EDT
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I am starting to not care about the Reds
and that really does take a lot. I still will watch them when I am home, but last night is an example. I stayed in with some friends and we watched some tv (I know exciting night life, but after my Tuesday night I need to give up drinking for a while, and find me something else to do in Ada, OH), i didn’t check the Reds score once. I woke up this morning, and spent about 30 minutes online before I remembered that the Reds even played last night. I guess last nights game wasn’t all bad Hudson started for my Fantasy team, which has taken a real beating thanks to Cueto and Oliver Perez.
I am going to Toledo tonight to watch the Mudhens and Rochester Redwings play.
The Dusty Path to the World Series!*
*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.
by justin007000 on
May 3, 2008 10:00 AM EDT
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Just wanted to take a brief moment
to share my feelings on this years roster construction, line-ups and on-field strategy. Thanks Dusty, Wayne and Bob. You guys are the best.

by Pops Daniels on
May 3, 2008 10:11 AM EDT
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Don't hold back Pops...
"There's more to being in the big leagues than just stats. Everyone is so stat-conscious." Dusty Baker
by Madville on
May 3, 2008 10:57 AM EDT
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Well
Our roster is fucked up but things will even out over the course of the season. I do not like Dusty, but there is no way he will be around to long with these results. I do think the season will take a turn for the much better and we will finish less than 7 games out of first.
For those who like the Carpenters and Happy Gilmore (as well as Apollo Creed singing the Carpenters)
The way I see it is “We’ve only just begun…”
by kennythered on
May 3, 2008 11:25 AM EDT
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Dusty's OK sometimes
you know he is talented outside of the game, as Doc likes to point out and his musical tastes are impeccable. Before his baseball career began, Dusty tried his hand at being a recording artist. Here is some rare footage of a song he wrote.
by Pops Daniels on
May 3, 2008 11:33 AM EDT
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Cueto
is also a fan of Dusty’s early stuff. He likes to sing along.
by Pops Daniels on
May 3, 2008 11:49 AM EDT
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This shit is hilarious..ol' Dustbag sure gets a groove on
"There's more to being in the big leagues than just stats. Everyone is so stat-conscious." Dusty Baker
by Madville on
May 3, 2008 12:28 PM EDT
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Brandon Phillips
has recently added his interpretation. The kid has talent and is extremely likable.
by Pops Daniels on
May 3, 2008 12:47 PM EDT
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The interesting thing about
things evening out, as JD wrote in his post, is that the pitching is probably going to get worse overall rather than better. The Reds have 3 starting pitchers that appear multiple times in the top 5 among league pitching stats and the team is still dead last in a division with the Pirates and Astros (teams the Reds have managed 0 wins against). For the most part the pitching has gifted April to the Reds and the offense has done nothing with it.
The only major injury that has hurt the Reds has been to David Ross, except it hasn’t hurt them because his replacement has been playing way over his head. Even if Ross stays healthy he’s not going to be putting up Bako’s numbers once Bako turns back into a pumpkin.
And it’s going to be A WHOLE lot harder to get rid of Dusty than the Mackanins and Narrons of the world. Dusty’s here another 3 season minimum.
Definitely an antisocial type. Woof, woof, woof! That's my other dog imitation.
by Man Mountain on
May 3, 2008 12:48 PM EDT
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True
Harang however is a legit all-star. We can expect him to put our team in a situation to win all year long. I’m sure the league will start to catch up with EV and Cueto but we also have Homer. I think those three can also be counted on to keep us in games because they will also start to adjust and learn to being in the majors. (when Soto gets here he will sort out Cueto) I also do not think our bullpen is a fluke. Now will Harang/EV/Cueto pitch this way all year? Probably not. But if our offense can start scoring 5 or 6 a game will we start winning a whole lot more? Hell YES.
There is no way Dusty is here a 3 season minimum. If he shows some sort of results he has a shot but if he keeps this up he won’t make it to Wayne’s level in ‘09.
by kennythered on
May 3, 2008 1:16 PM EDT
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given the title
i love that you tagged this post “News”
Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah
by boobs on
May 3, 2008 1:49 PM EDT
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Dunn?
Why can’t anyone on this site be critical of Adam Dunn. He’s the $13 million answer to what is wrong with this team. You all have your heads so far up JD & Slyde’s collective asses you can’t see the truth. The dude is a big, lazy douche. Ban away motherfuckers.
BTW, the new site sucks balls!
by Neckbeard Jr. on
May 3, 2008 2:12 PM EDT
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why?
It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.
by Slyde on
May 3, 2008 2:14 PM EDT
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recd
Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah
by boobs on
May 3, 2008 2:19 PM EDT
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Dunn is doing a lot of things poorly (defense, homers)
But one thing he’s doing well is not getting out.
He has the highest OBP on the Reds.
There are many more things wrong with this team than Dunn, starting first and foremost with Patterson, then Griffey.
by Nick Papageorgio on
May 3, 2008 2:33 PM EDT
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Yes he's on base
But he’s not doing much else at the plate either an out or a walk it seems.
I do not understand why the Reds (Dusty) think Corey Patterson is anything but a 7-8 hitter. He’s not Juan Castro bad offensively but he’s not what you want at the top of the order.
I know speed at the top of the order is the rule of thumb but why not Keppinger being number one and Dunn being two. I would bat Edwin third just because he seems to make contact, then Phillips and then Griffey.
On page 244 of the new fall catalog, you'll see the new power sweater, made especially for baseball General Managers and not Cosby show conventions attendees.
by Pilsner73 on
May 3, 2008 2:41 PM EDT
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Phillips is possibly the worst choice for clean-up on the roster.
by Nick Papageorgio on
May 3, 2008 2:45 PM EDT
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Then who
Ok he has power and likes to swing.
On page 244 of the new fall catalog, you'll see the new power sweater, made especially for baseball General Managers and not Cosby show conventions attendees.
by Pilsner73 on
May 3, 2008 2:47 PM EDT
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Well I ran a simulation pre-season based on their ZiPS projections
EE
Dunn
Brandon
Griff
Votto
Bruce
Ross
Arroyo
Keppinger
by Nick Papageorgio on
May 3, 2008 2:48 PM EDT
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I doubt Dusty would ever bat our pitcher 8th, though
so that is sort of moot
by Nick Papageorgio on
May 3, 2008 2:49 PM EDT
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Dunn' lack of power is a huge cause for concern
but his OBP alone demands – demands – a guaranteed at bat in the first inning. The fact that he’s still not getting one is breathtakingly stupid.
'cause something is happening here, but you don't know what it is.
by Man Mountain on
May 3, 2008 2:48 PM EDT
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Mathematics
Patterson batting first and Dunn not batting at all in top three = Dusty Baker
On page 244 of the new fall catalog, you'll see the new power sweater, made especially for baseball General Managers and not Cosby show conventions attendees.
by Pilsner73 on
May 3, 2008 2:49 PM EDT
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The fact that Dunn's SLG is down while his OBP leads the team might actually get him moved up in Dusty's lineup.
I don't know how to paint a banana gourd to look like a Power Ranger.
by Fat Vegas Alan on
May 3, 2008 2:51 PM EDT
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I'm sure this discussion is boring everyone
but as I wrote the other day, I’m still surprised every day when I see the lineup. Which makes my stupidity greater than Baker’s.
'cause something is happening here, but you don't know what it is.
by Man Mountain on
May 3, 2008 2:53 PM EDT
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Maybe it's time for an open letter to Dusty Baker
a la USS Mariner
by Nick Papageorgio on
May 3, 2008 2:56 PM EDT
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funny, funny stuff
In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.
by chandrathan on
May 5, 2008 9:33 AM EDT
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Paul O'Neill
is broadcasting today’s Yankees game. He’s waxing nostalgic about the Big Red Machine. He said when he was a kid, he knew every player. Now, he says you’d have to buy a program to keep up.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on
May 3, 2008 2:33 PM EDT
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O'Neill was 10 years old and living in Ohio when the BRM rolled
It’s not surprising he knew every player. And he would have had to buy a program to know who the hell played for the Minnesota Twins.
Also he is crazy.
'cause something is happening here, but you don't know what it is.
by Man Mountain on
May 3, 2008 2:41 PM EDT
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I don't think he meant it that way
He was talking about how free agency changed the game.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on
May 3, 2008 2:46 PM EDT
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Free agency did change the game.
Like fifteen or twenty years ago.
Pauly needs to get with Costas for some new grumpy old man material.
I don't know how to paint a banana gourd to look like a Power Ranger.
by Fat Vegas Alan on
May 3, 2008 2:49 PM EDT
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Nothing has been worse for baseball players
than free agency. More players need the courage to speak out against it like O’Neill. Curt Flood should be banned for life.
by Red Menace on
May 3, 2008 5:23 PM EDT
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He was speaking as a fan...
...not a player. And I can kind of see his point. I sort of miss the days when there wasn’t a revolving door on the clubhouse. Well, those days were before my time with baseball, but I remember them in football.
As a player, he certainly benefited. Though he took a pay cut to stay with the Yankees.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on
May 3, 2008 5:34 PM EDT
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Dusty
Let’s have some discussion on his management of the team. I want to say before the discussion even goes anywhere that even a bad manager looks good when their lineup plays well and executes.
Before I go on I’d like to point out that I just watch/listen to the team and not living in a TV market where I can see the Reds much, it’s mainly XM radio or gameday.
The good: Seems to have a better idea of his bullpen and who to use/not use but then again the bullpen is performing much better this year than in years past. Has faith in some of the younger players (EdE) where other manager would jump all over them but let the veterans go.. He seems to understand the Reds need to do the small things to win a ballgame (see bad followup).
The bad: Lineup – Corey Patterson as leadoff is bad on so many levels. I don’t mind him playing if he’s there for his defense and he’s batting late in the order. Adam Dunn needs a jump start and in the past using his ability to walk a lot by putting him second in the order seems to go over well for a period of time. Asking players who have no clue to bunt to actually try to bunt. Any game I watch it seems the Reds are being asked to lay down bunts and yet they have more of a chance when bunting that it ends in an out where no runners advance, an out where the lead runner is out, or a double play. Dusty if your team can’t bunt don’t ask it to, or start calling on the players to practice it. Also he seems to have a hands off approach to Griffey which would be great if he was playing better.
Last but not least does anyone get the feeling Dusty either hates the way this team is built (maybe why WayneK is gone) or he’s just clueless on how to use it.
On page 244 of the new fall catalog, you'll see the new power sweater, made especially for baseball General Managers and not Cosby show conventions attendees.
by Pilsner73 on
May 3, 2008 3:13 PM EDT
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I don't disagree with much that JD offers.
But the Reds Pythag puts them at 13-17. And that’s only one win away from 14-16.
And I think if we were at 14-16 there wouldn’t be so much navel-gazing going on.
I’ll say it again..
~ Joey Votto
~ Francisco Cordero
~ Johnny Cueto
~ Jared Burton
~ Jay Bruce
I don't know how to paint a banana gourd to look like a Power Ranger.
by Fat Vegas Alan on
May 3, 2008 3:15 PM EDT
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There is something amiss with this team's chemistry.
Maybe its Griffey or BP…but this team smell stagnant and looks lost.
"There's more to being in the big leagues than just stats. Everyone is so stat-conscious." Dusty Baker
by Madville on
May 3, 2008 3:26 PM EDT
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teams that lose tend to look stagnant
I think that is more a result of losing than a cause.
The fact is that at this point, the only players that are seriously under-performing their expectations are Griffey overall and Dunn’s power. Granted, those are two very big pieces of the offense, but that says to me that this just isn’t a very good offensive team.
It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.
by Slyde on
May 3, 2008 3:31 PM EDT
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Yeah
I don’t blame Jr. or BP, though. I think Fay is right on this. It’s “same guy syndrome.” The players are all decent. (Now that Castro and Coffey are gone, anyway.) But too many of them are too similar. Which means the sum is less than the parts.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on
May 3, 2008 3:52 PM EDT
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The problem with BP
is, I think, one of perception.
In terms of his offensive numbers, he’s basically the same player he was last year, with his increased slugging making up for his decreased OBP.
The message we get from him and the team (via the Reds broadcasters) is that he’s a “finished product.” And he’s not. He needs to work on his plate discipline and his swing. But the “30/30” tag combined with Dusty batting him in the premier power hitter’s spot probably encourages him to keep swinging out of his socks at balls out of the zone.
It may be that this will never change, but, if so, he probably doesn’t need to be the player looked upon to keep a rally going. I may be wrong, but my perception is that the organization and perhaps the average fan has more faith in him at the plate then Encarnacion, which they really shouldn’t.
'cause something is happening here, but you don't know what it is.
by Man Mountain on
May 3, 2008 4:17 PM EDT
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My feeling
My gut says its a combination of everyone. I agree things look stagnant but my problem is there is zero sense of urgency to get out of this funk. They just seem not to car and even more so in the past. Maybe I’m the only one seeing this, but its just one guy’s opinion.
I love Griffey but I wish he would just hang it up after this year and if he doesn’t I hope he isn’t in a Reds uniform.
by kennythered on
May 3, 2008 6:13 PM EDT
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It's my belief that if they were getting out of the funk
there would appear to be that sense of urgency. It’s a chicken and egg thing. I believe they are trying to stop losing, they just can’t.
It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.
by Slyde on
May 3, 2008 7:51 PM EDT
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Check it out.
Brandon Phillips’ team wins/team loses splits.
I know these kinds of stats aren’t supposed to mean anything but…
.354 / .385 / .688 in wins
.215 / .271 / .354 in losses
...c’mon, that’s huuuge.
I don't know how to paint a banana gourd to look like a Power Ranger.
by Fat Vegas Alan on
May 3, 2008 3:29 PM EDT
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cause and effect
Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah
by boobs on
May 3, 2008 3:30 PM EDT
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And that's exactly what I'm looking for...
...WHO IN THE HELL IS CAUSING THIS SHIT??
I don't know how to paint a banana gourd to look like a Power Ranger.
by Fat Vegas Alan on
May 3, 2008 3:33 PM EDT
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Edwin
.366/.447/.805 in wins
.238/.324/.397 in losses
I’d guess that you’d find similar splits for most players
It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.
by Slyde on
May 3, 2008 3:33 PM EDT
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For instance
The Reds team
in wins: .306/.385/.540
in losses: .213/.276/.321
It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.
by Slyde on
May 3, 2008 3:34 PM EDT
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I guess that goes a long way to take the blame off of Arroyo, Fogg and Belisle.
I don't know how to paint a banana gourd to look like a Power Ranger.
by Fat Vegas Alan on
May 3, 2008 3:36 PM EDT
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well
The team ERA in losses is 5.53
In wins it’s 2.48
I think the offense is probably the bigger issue right now, but the pitching hasn’t helped that much.
It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.
by Slyde on
May 3, 2008 3:40 PM EDT
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