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Some Guy on the Internet thinks Volquez and Cueto have the wrong ERAs

Okay, maybe it's not just some random guy on the Internet...

It's some random guy over at Beyond the Box Score who says: Edinson Volquez' [sic] ERA Cannot Last.

 

Star-divide

In short, he regresses ERA on baserunners/9 innings, using 1,000 datapoints since 1999.  He finds an R-squared of 0.66, and concludes that predicted ERA from this regression is destiny.  Hence, Volquez's ERA will rise, while Cueto's will fall.

 

As I commented there, it sure is a good thing that correlation=causality.

However, this does provide some evidence that Volquez and Carmona (as I was wondering earlier) have either been quite lucky or are doing something very right that we don't understand, while the opposite is true of Cueto.  My main problem is jumping beyond that knowledge to pronounce the end of the reign of a low Volquez ERA.  Sure, it's likely to rise, but I'm not particularly buying this argument.

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Of course it's going to go up

The guy’s ERA is 1.33 right now. It’s unrealistic to think that a guy who only goes 6 or 7 innings a start can keep his ERA in the ones. Just look at yesterday, he gave up 2 runs in 6 innings (a 3.00 ERA) and his ERA went up 0.21 points.

The thing that I believe Anderson does wrong is that he leaves out some major factors in predicting pitcher performance, specifically K/9 and HR/9, both of which are outstanding for EV. I’m not sure why he would only look at base runners when plenty of research has already shown that K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 have fairly strong predictive value for future ERA. The most basic form of that calculation is FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) – a predicted ERA based solely on those three factors. EV’s FIP for this year 3.02, or about 2 runs every 6 innings pitched. So, yeah, it’s going to go up, but I’d consider a 3.02 ERA to be pretty damn sparkling.

Cueto’s FIP (4.86) is better than his current ERA (5.75), but it’s still not all that good because Cueto is giving up 2.09 HR every 9 IP. For a point of reference, Eric Milton’s worst HR/9 IP was 1.93 during his first year with the Reds.

"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays

by Slyde on May 19, 2008 8:41 AM EDT   0 recs

Exactly.

It’s going to go up, but that could just be a regression to the mean. There are plenty of other factors that can explain why his ERA is low and Cueto’s is high, as you point out.

by Gray on May 19, 2008 8:54 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Slyde

Thank you for putting (Fielding Independent Pitching) beside FIP. Is it possible to make that standard protocal? Sometimes I have trouble reading posts because I don’t understand what the abbreviation stands for. I’ve read a few books now, and I have a good understanding of stuff such as WHIP and OPS and the like, but for some of the more obscure things, I need a little more explanation.

In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.

by chandrathan on May 19, 2008 12:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'll try to remember to do that

but if I or someone else forgets, there is always the wiki.

"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays

by Slyde on May 19, 2008 12:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

that's true

but is sucks to have to stop reading posts to have to go look something up.

In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.

by chandrathan on May 19, 2008 12:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah i know

but it interrupts the flow

In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.

by chandrathan on May 19, 2008 12:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

A thought on baserunners/9

So far this year I would say that Volquez’s ERA is better than his baserunners/9 for two reasons. Looking at yesterdays game, he allowed 10 baserunners. 4 walks, 2 hit batsmen, 2 singles, a double, and a homerun. I was at the game, and if I remember right, there were only about 5 hard-hit balls against him. (The line drive to Janish in the first, a deep fly out to center, the home run by Aubrey, and the ball Garko hit off the wall when he was thrown out at 2nd.) Even the double was a bloop hit in front of freel that might’ve been a single if freel didn’t try for a dive. If you give up a walk every inning, but you’re not giving up homeruns or even doubles, its going to be hard to get those guys in. Giving up 6 walks a game is probably not a long-term formula for success, but thats why it’s been ok for Volquez so far IMO.

Bruce Bonser? Boone Bonser? Boot Bonser? BOOSE BONZER?

by Lakeman on May 19, 2008 9:27 AM EDT   0 recs

I was noticing something similar for Carmona

last night when wondering why his ERA is so low while his WHIP is almost as high as Arroyo’s. He walks a lot of batters, and gives up a fair number of hits-but almost all singles, and only one HR. There’s definitely something to be said for keeping runners on first or second, even if you let them on-which this obviously doesn’t take into account.

by Gray on May 19, 2008 9:49 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't think you understand the argument

He’s suggesting that Volquez has been lucky and that Cueto has been unlucky. It would be the same thing as suggestion that Adam Dunn would have more RBIs if he didn’t have black holes of OBP batting in the line-up ahead of him.

The bottom line here is that Volquez can see his ERA rise and Cueto can see his ERA drop without either of them doing anything different other than an uncontrollable change in luck.

by LooseCannon on May 19, 2008 11:57 AM EDT   0 recs

No, I understand the argument

I just think it’s poorly made and not really correct.

And as I said above, the only possible explanation for this is not that Volquez is lucky and Cueto is unlucky. Another explanation would be that they’re doing something differently, in a way that’s not captured by baserunners/9 innings. That possibility is not considered in this analysis.

by Gray on May 19, 2008 12:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

By the way

These are the pitchers that have posted 10+ K/9 and 4.5+ BB/9 over more than 20 starts in a season.

  Cnt Player            ERA+  SO/9  BB/9  HR/9  H/9   G  Year Age
+----+-----------------+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+----+---+
    1 Nolan Ryan         141 10.26  6.14  0.36  5.96  37 1977  30 
    2 Kerry Wood         128 12.58  4.59  0.76  6.32  26 1998  21 
    3 Nolan Ryan         128 10.43  4.98  0.44  5.26  39 1972  25 
    4 Bartolo Colon      127 10.15  4.69  1.01  7.80  30 2000  27 
    5 Kerry Wood         123 11.20  4.75  0.83  6.56  28 2001  24 
    6 Sam McDowell       120 10.42  4.72  0.56  6.02  35 1966  23 
    7 Randy Johnson      105 10.31  6.16  0.56  6.59  31 1992  28 
    8 Sandy Koufax       104 10.15  5.40  1.35  7.98  35 1959  23 
    9 Randy Johnson      103 10.19  6.79  0.67  6.75  33 1991  27 
   10 Sandy Koufax       101 10.13  5.14  1.03  6.84  37 1960  24 
   11 Nolan Ryan          99 10.35  5.79  0.41  6.11  39 1976  29 
   12 Bobby Witt          92 10.07  8.81  0.63  7.17  26 1987  23 
   13 Oliver Perez        73 10.02  5.47  1.56  9.17  24 2003  21 

First of all, that’s a special group of pitchers right there. Secondly, looking at that list, you can get away with high walks if you don’t give up HR or hits. Right now, Volquez is there. He may not always stay that way, but like you said, it’s not necessarily luck that is keeping him successful. He’s just doing everything else well enough to avoid being hurt by the walks.

"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays

by Slyde on May 19, 2008 12:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It absolutely is considered

Otherwise R-squared would be 1.

by LooseCannon on May 19, 2008 1:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That response doesn't make much sense.

So baserunners/9 innings is highly related to whatever it is that leads to ERA, to the tune of variation in baserunners/9 explaining ~66% of the variation in ERA. That’s all the R-squared tells us.

What I am saying is that it’s important, when regressing things, to know what the hell you’re looking for. I don’t buy that this is the only factor affecting ERA other than luck, which is what the author implies.

I’m not sure what you’re arguing, exactly.

by Gray on May 19, 2008 1:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't think that he implies that

I think the author is stating that there is a strong correlation between baserunners/9ip (a correlation which obviously makes sense), not that it is the only factor.

Really, I think what you want the author to do is show the correlation of the prior year’s baserunners/9 vs ERA for the next season’s ERA. I have a suspicion that the previous year’s baserunners/9 will have a stronger predictive value for ERA than the previous year’s ERA.

by LooseCannon on May 19, 2008 6:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

also

Just because a regression to the mean is inevitable doesn’t mean he won’t continue to be very valuable. Last year Dan Haren’s ERA was 1.58 on June 9th. It rose in his next 19 starts... all the way to 3.12.

by Red Menace on May 19, 2008 12:58 PM EDT   0 recs

Island Update: "Pedrito" Winter League Whispers, Presedential Ponderings

El Caribe has Vólquez plastered on their back front page (it is a magazine like paper that has national headlines on the front and sports headlines on the back) with a headline that reads “7-1 Para ‘Pedrito’ ” I hope that name continues to stick, and the next of Dominican star pitcher will be called Edinsonito, or better yet “the little wagon.”

The Listin Diario is reporting that Vólquez has confirmed that he will be pitching in the DR Winter League for sure this year. The general manager of his team, los Toros del Este, had this to say:

Para nosotros es una agradable noticia que Vólquez esté manifestando a los periodistas dominicanos que le han entrevistado que estará dispuesto a lanzar para nuestro equipo en la venidera temporada, cosa que esta que para nosotros no es sorpresa, ya que nos los había expresado en los campos de entrenamientos mientras estuvimos en compañía del presidente de los Toros, Frank Micheli, sin importar la que tenga este año en las Grandes Ligas.

For us it is good news that Vólquez is telling the Dominican press that he will be available to pitch for our team this coming winter league season. This comes as no surprise to us though, he expressed this desire to play here again, regardless of what happens this year in the Big Leagues, to Toros president, Frank Mitchel, during training camp.

Leonel Fernandez was re-elected president of the Dominican Republic on Friday. Fernandez is in his third term now (second consecutive) and has largely thrived on being less corrupt than his predecessors. He has continued to lead the DR down the “free trade” path which has brought some foreign investment here and some economic growth for a small part of the population. He is currently working on a contraversial 700 million dollar Metro system- so far one line that runs north/south through the city. Wickepidia will tell you that this one metro line costs about as much is being spent on health and education in this country.

Justicia Global, the organization to which I pertain, put out a statement before the election. Basically we said that this elections continue to support a system that does not function for all Dominicans. It is our belief that the political left should be taking a critical stance against the corruption and mismanagement of the government, while promoting a truly particapatory democracy that gives people the knowlede to solve problems creatively and collectively. Unfortunatley, the political left is currently participating in this same broken political system, a sytem that puts so much emphasis on election day, but then forgets about the day after, and the day after that, and the day after the day after that… For this reason, we did not support any candidate or party, but continued to emphasize the need to build a culture of solidarity where everyone’s basic needs are met.

Tanzen!

by Verka Serduchka on May 19, 2008 6:30 PM EDT   0 recs

Voloquez

I’m a big as fan as any, and I have him on my fantasy team, but pitchers don’t often have 1.31 ERAs for an entire season. I think that alone tells us that Volquez will see his ERA rise. He used one metric to point out why. No, he didn’t give a complete analysis, but it’s not like he’s wrong either. I would think anyone would be willing to bet that Volquez ends up with an ERA closer to 3 than to 2. I won’t be complaining. He’s a stud. But he will get hit.

by DisplacedFan on May 20, 2008 8:44 AM EDT   0 recs

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