The guy’s ERA is 1.33 right now. It’s unrealistic to think that a guy who only goes 6 or 7 innings a start can keep his ERA in the ones. Just look at yesterday, he gave up 2 runs in 6 innings (a 3.00 ERA) and his ERA went up 0.21 points.

The thing that I believe Anderson does wrong is that he leaves out some major factors in predicting pitcher performance, specifically K/9 and HR/9, both of which are outstanding for EV. I’m not sure why he would only look at base runners when plenty of research has already shown that K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 have fairly strong predictive value for future ERA. The most basic form of that calculation is FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) – a predicted ERA based solely on those three factors. EV’s FIP for this year 3.02, or about 2 runs every 6 innings pitched. So, yeah, it’s going to go up, but I’d consider a 3.02 ERA to be pretty damn sparkling.

Cueto’s FIP (4.86) is better than his current ERA (5.75), but it’s still not all that good because Cueto is giving up 2.09 HR every 9 IP. For a point of reference, Eric Milton’s worst HR/9 IP was 1.93 during his first year with the Reds.

So far this year I would say that Volquez’s ERA is better than his baserunners/9 for two reasons. Looking at yesterdays game, he allowed 10 baserunners. 4 walks, 2 hit batsmen, 2 singles, a double, and a homerun. I was at the game, and if I remember right, there were only about 5 hard-hit balls against him. (The line drive to Janish in the first, a deep fly out to center, the home run by Aubrey, and the ball Garko hit off the wall when he was thrown out at 2nd.) Even the double was a bloop hit in front of freel that might’ve been a single if freel didn’t try for a dive. If you give up a walk every inning, but you’re not giving up homeruns or even doubles, its going to be hard to get those guys in. Giving up 6 walks a game is probably not a long-term formula for success, but thats why it’s been ok for Volquez so far IMO.

Just because a regression to the mean is inevitable doesn’t mean he won’t continue to be very valuable. Last year Dan Haren’s ERA was 1.58 on June 9th. It rose in his next 19 starts... all the way to 3.12.

El Caribe has Vólquez plastered on their back front page (it is a magazine like paper that has national headlines on the front and sports headlines on the back) with a headline that reads “7-1 Para ‘Pedrito’ ” I hope that name continues to stick, and the next of Dominican star pitcher will be called Edinsonito, or better yet “the little wagon.”

The Listin Diario is reporting that Vólquez has confirmed that he will be pitching in the DR Winter League for sure this year. The general manager of his team, los Toros del Este, had this to say:

Para nosotros es una agradable noticia que Vólquez esté manifestando a los periodistas dominicanos que le han entrevistado que estará dispuesto a lanzar para nuestro equipo en la venidera temporada, cosa que esta que para nosotros no es sorpresa, ya que nos los había expresado en los campos de entrenamientos mientras estuvimos en compañía del presidente de los Toros, Frank Micheli, sin importar la que tenga este año en las Grandes Ligas.

For us it is good news that Vólquez is telling the Dominican press that he will be available to pitch for our team this coming winter league season. This comes as no surprise to us though, he expressed this desire to play here again, regardless of what happens this year in the Big Leagues, to Toros president, Frank Mitchel, during training camp.

Leonel Fernandez was re-elected president of the Dominican Republic on Friday. Fernandez is in his third term now (second consecutive) and has largely thrived on being less corrupt than his predecessors. He has continued to lead the DR down the “free trade” path which has brought some foreign investment here and some economic growth for a small part of the population. He is currently working on a contraversial 700 million dollar Metro system- so far one line that runs north/south through the city. Wickepidia will tell you that this one metro line costs about as much is being spent on health and education in this country.

Justicia Global, the organization to which I pertain, put out a statement before the election. Basically we said that this elections continue to support a system that does not function for all Dominicans. It is our belief that the political left should be taking a critical stance against the corruption and mismanagement of the government, while promoting a truly particapatory democracy that gives people the knowlede to solve problems creatively and collectively. Unfortunatley, the political left is currently participating in this same broken political system, a sytem that puts so much emphasis on election day, but then forgets about the day after, and the day after that, and the day after the day after that… For this reason, we did not support any candidate or party, but continued to emphasize the need to build a culture of solidarity where everyone’s basic needs are met.