Reds' Defensive Review
Much has been made of the struggles of the offense, but at the quarter pole, I wanted to take a position-by-position look at the defense. JinAZ (jinaz-reds.blogspot.com) and Doug (redsminorleagues.com) have done far better stuff on defense in the past, but I think this works as a quick-and-dirty look. Defensive stats are notoriously effected by small sample sizes, especially over a quarter of a season, but I think there's something to be gleaned from what the stats say so far. The main basis of comparison I'm using is THT's Revised Zone Rating (RZR), with bonus points added and subtracted for Out of Zone (OOZ) plays, Double Plays, and errors as applicable.
1B - Joey Votto ranks 9th out of 14 qualifying 1B in RZR. He's really at the back end of the "average" tier, though, as he's only .016 out of 7th, and almost .100 ahead of #11. He leads the NL with 20 OOZ Plays, and also leads the NL in assists. His Double Play numbers are right in line with the rest of the NL, and while he has the lowest FP of NL 1B's, the small sample size means that he's really only 1-2 errors away from average.
Bottom line - The low RZR and FP are concerning, but the huge OOZ and assist totals make him Average, with the potential to be better.
2B - No surprise here. Brandon Phillips is 1st in the NL in RZR. He's 2nd in the NL in FP (Iguchi has 0 errors, Phillips has 1), and his Double Play numbers are right around average. The only knock is that he only has 4 OOZ plays, but given the rest of the numbers, that's nit-picking.
Bottom line - Excellent. No debating that.
3B - Edwin Encarnacion is 8th out of 15 in RZR, dead average. Double plays are average, too. Unfortunately, he's 2nd to last in OOZ Plays, and tied for the most errors in the NL. While this may seem like a poor performance, it's actually a big improvement from EE, as he's ranked at or near the bottom in RZR the last 2 years, while still last in FP and OOZ.
Bottom Line - Below Average but, as noted, improving.
SS - Conventional wisdom suggests that Jeff Keppinger has held his own at SS. Statistical analysis shows that's not the case. He's 2nd to last in the NL in RZR, 3rd to last in OOZ plays (9. The only guy below him in RZR has 26). The FP is solid, but it's tough to make errors when you don't get to any balls. Double plays are significantly below average, too.
Bottom Line - Poor. Kepp deserves an everyday shot somewhere, but not at SS.
LF - For all the beatings he takes, Adam Dunn's defense looks to be improved this season. He's typically among the bottom 5 in RZR with the Burrells and Carlos Lees of the world. So far this season, he's 6th out of 11, but his raw numbers show him in the middle tier with Juan Pierre and Ryan Braun, significantly ahead of Burrell, Lee and the like. He's also dead league average in OOZ plays, where he's typically brutal. He has 1 more error than league average, but interestingly, both of his errors have been on throws this year.
Bottom Line - Surprisingly Average.
CF - Corey Patterson has a reputation as a guy who can really go get them in Center. As terrible as his bat has been, the defensive reputation is borne out in the stats. He's 2nd in the NL in RZR (.003 behind the leader, Rick Ankiel), and has 16 OOZ plays, slightly below average. He has 2 OF assists, and 2 errors, which pretty much cancel each other out.
Bottom Line - Excellent
RF - Ken Griffey, Jr. has lost many, many steps. Last in the NL in RZR, 2nd to last in OOZ plays, 2nd to last in FP. There's really nothing else to say. He's awful in Right.
Bottom Line - Poor. Very, very poor.
How to fix it? That's the good news. The defense has been at least decent at 7 of the 9 positions. RF and SS look to be really dragging us down. I'm told there's a RF at AAA who looks to be solid defensively. He's supposed to be able to hit a little, too. Deal Griffey, bring up The Boss, problem solved. SS is a little trickier. Alex Gonzalez's 2007 rates Above average defensively (Excellent RZR, solid OOZ, poor FP), but we're not sure when he'll be available. I think we could deal Griffey to Cleveland for Josh Rodriguez (SS prospect) and Chuck Lofgren (power LHP). Rodriguez might not be ready yet, but I think he could be a long-term answer. The good news is that the defensive issues are no longer team-wide, and can be significantly improved with upgrades at only 2 positions.
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One easy fix is to switch BP to shortstop where he would in short time be EXCELLENT and Kepp to 2b where he would be at least AVERAGE.
The art of losing isn’t hard to master;
. - Elizabeth Bishop
kepp has a broken knee
he flat out can’t play anywhere right now
In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.
by chandrathan on May 18, 2008 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Well I meant after he returns from his broken knee thing
But he did play a couple of innings with a broken, so there.,.
BUBUBUBUBUBUBUB
Kepp
not sure what this measures. He has only had one error. While admittedly his range isn’t as great as others he has been steady and made the routine play. I’d rather have that than erratic play with a bunch of errors.
Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds
RZR
Essentially, they cut the field into “wedges” and determine whose responsibility each “wedge” is. It’s not perfect, but it’s way better than just measuring errors. Suppose 2 shortstops see the same 6 balls. One guy (let’s call him “Eric Deter”) only gets to 1 of the 6, and retires the batter on that 1. His fielding percentage is 1.000. The other guy (we’ll call him “Alex L. Gonzalez”) gets to all 6, but makes an error one of the throws. His FP is .833. Eric only got 1 batter, Alex L. got 5, but according to FP, Eric is the better fielder. RZR helps give us a measure of those balls that are just out of a bad SS’s reach, but that a good or even average SS gets.
An error and a groundball that gets through both have the same result (usually, a single). Groundballs that get through happen way more often. A SS with bad range costs you significantly more runs than a guy who has a few more errors, but only the errors are measured by traditional stats. That’s the problem, and that’s what we’re trying to measure.
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey
To alleviate the small sample size for Kepp...
What was Kepp’s RZR last year?
Are you sure you're OK? Have you had an MRI?
by Paul Householder on May 19, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks B. good work!
Kepp is a bit of a surprise. i knew he wasnt good by any stretch, but i certainly didnt think he was THIS bad. ouch. and yet BP is a 2B, no questions. sheesh. Griffey is really just depressing. its a miracle he can even stand up, i mean, he’s practically bionic, and its a shame to see his star has fallen so far. as for the future of the SS position, im wondering if Paul Janish could be anything more than a UT guy. his minor league career OPS is .740, and thats with an OBP of .354. which certainly would be acceptable as a major league regular if his glove is as advertised.
If you don't get a good-night kiss, you get Kafka dreams.
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 18, 2008 4:35 PM EDT reply actions
great work
i wonder if plugging janish into the SS slot wouldn’t do the trick. His on-base prowess is not too different from Kepp’s at this point in their careers (through Age 25, Kepp had OBPs between .341 and .397; Janish’s have all been between .329 and .396, although that low mark came when he struggled in 200 ABs in Louisville last year.) I don’t think he would be quite the hitter Kepp is, but then Kepp really wasn’t the hitter he is now when he was in the minors.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
I've been really impressed with Janish.
He has put together good at-bats and seen a lot of pitches in his brief time with the Reds.
Nice post as usual.
I think the way to fix Kepp at short is to have him foul a ball off his knee and break it, therefore giving Janish a chance.
Can Kepp play CF?
Are you sure you're OK? Have you had an MRI?
by Paul Householder on May 18, 2008 9:01 PM EDT reply actions
No, Jeff Keppinger is not capable of leading off
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
Actually...
My thought was that having Kepp in CF would fix two problems at once.
First, it would fix the fact that he is below average at SS and otherwise doesn’t have a position to play.
Second, it would fix our OBP problem at the top of the lineup.
Are you sure you're OK? Have you had an MRI?
by Paul Householder on May 19, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
What OPP problem at the top of the lineup?
What we need’s a guy who can steal ya a base’r two, go from first to third, tackle a guy up high and bear hug ‘im to the ground, rub a little beech nut on yer timing belt….
Curse and drat, he's outmaneuvered us.
by Man Mountain on May 19, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Our OPP is down
We know it’s thanks to you.
by Brendanukkah on May 19, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions





















