Farmers only: Homer struggles to find the zone
by Rick House
on May 17, 2008 1:43 AM EDT
in News
Homer Bailey's becoming an enigma. His lack of consistency might be due to an underdeveloped changeup, but I'm not a scout and really don't know. He's still got ace potential, but we haven't seen a lot of that the past two years. So what do you think: Is Homer more valuable to us as a future cornerstone starter or trade bait to pick up a big bat? Maybe we could flip him to Texas for Josh Hamilton...
Bailey
Triple-A: The Bats split a doubleheader with Scranton, losing 4-0 and winning 4-2. In the first game, Homer was wild, issuing a career-high 6 walks in 5 innings, striking out 4. He might have been the victim of a tight strike zone, as he started to walk off the mound in the first after what he thought was a strikeout, but the umpire didn't budge, for a walk, and Homer allowed a homer to the next batter. So there's that. Andy Phillips' 17-game hitting streak ended after he was 0 for 2. In Game 2, Jay Bruce was 2 for 3 with a homer and Danny Herrera got his one batter out for the save. UP NEXT: New home series vs. Indy, 6:15 tonight.
Double-A: An ugly game for the Lookouts, who lost 12-1 to Mississippi. Tonys Gutierrez was 2 for 4, and Ramon Ramirez struck out 6 in 4 innings but gave up 8 hits and 6 runs. The rest was nasty. UP NEXT: Game 3 vs. the Braves, 7:15 tonight.
Frazier
High A: Todd Frazier (who's playing third base now, by the way) had 2 homers in Sarasota's 10-6 win. In his combined stints (38 games), he has 11 homers, 30 RBIs and a 1.031 OPS. Danny Dorn added his first homer of the season, going 3 for 5 with 3 RBIs, and Jordan Smith improved to 7-1 with 5 strikeouts in 6 innings. In 62 innings this year, he's struck out 40 and walked just 6. The K rates could be a lot better, but he's got a WHIP of .97 and an ERA of 2.03. Sean Watson struck out 3 of his 5 batters, and his K totals are sick: 24 in 16 innings. Too bad about the 18H, 11BB, 10ER and 4HR. UP NEXT: Rubber match at Clearwater, 6:30 tonight.
Low A: The Dragons got just 2 hits and lost 5-3. Logan Parker hit his 3rd homer of the season, and Brandon Waring singled. 2 more strikeouts for Devin Mesoraco. Jeff Jeffords allowed the go-ahead runs in the ninth for the loss. UP NEXT: Doubleheader vs. Great Lakes starting at noon.
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What's up with Homer?
Hal McCoy cited a source in Louisville that said on the night Homer was supposed to chart pitches, he was reading a hunting magazine. Is he really that hard-headed?
by nighthawk32 on May 17, 2008 2:06 AM EDT 0 recs
Good grief
He’s not going to get to the big leagues that way.
But it wouldn’t surprise me to learn that he really is that hard-headed. He strikes me as being a bit immature. Or maybe he’s just a dick.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on
May 17, 2008 6:31 AM EDT
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to go along with that
a writer asked Homer if he has learned anything this year in Louisiville and he said “no” and walked away. I am starting to get on the trade him for somebody banwagon, but hopefully he will figure it out. Maybe he needs to cut his hair, be only allowed to talk to his manager, catcher, and pitchign coach on gameday and have to run off the field in 12 seconds.
The Dusty Path to the World Series!*
*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.
by justin007000 on
May 17, 2008 9:00 AM EDT
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We better trade him before his reputation gets out
Homer can flat out be a dick.
by Brian B on
May 17, 2008 2:01 PM EDT
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The mystique of Homer Bailey
I just looked at his performance tonight(thankfull for the tape machine and it was on TV) and he simply can’t repeat his mechanics correctly. He didn’t have that problem 2 years ago. Yet, every since spring training 2007, he has. It robs him of velocity and command which of course means weaker production. This isn’t a new problem yet it persists.
Either he has something lose or god forbid torn in his shoulder or he is just slacking off and isn’t making much of a effort.
His trade value has probably completely slumped to being less than Thompson’s. What a decline over the last year!!!
by Johnnypronto on May 17, 2008 2:43 AM EDT 0 recs
i can't believe his value is less than thompson
it’s not nearly what it once was, but he’s still our No. 1 pitching prospect.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on
May 17, 2008 3:39 AM EDT
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or it could just be mechanical
Arroyo has demonstrated this season already that even the slightest mechanical problems can knock 4 or 5 MPH off a fast ball.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
by Slyde on
May 17, 2008 9:14 AM EDT
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I agree
His motion was all over the place when he pitched for the Reds last season. It’s like he’s an outfielder who was brought in to pitch and all he knows to do is throw the ball.
by Brian B on
May 17, 2008 2:03 PM EDT
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There’s enough anecdotal evidence to suggest Bailey’s spent too much time reading his own press clippings. He’s still very young, so perhaps it’s that kind of maturity issue.
However, the issue for the Reds is how much longer do they wait this out? I’m of the school that no one should be protected from a trade; you can’t make a valid decision on a trade until that specific moment.
I’d expect to see Bailey stay in Lousiville until he works out his bugs and ptiches well, consistently. Maybe he comes up in late summer, maybe not. At best, though, he’s got just one more shot.
by justcorbly on May 17, 2008 9:19 AM EDT 0 recs
hmmmmm
I agree with your assessment that he stays in the ‘Ville until he works out the bugs and pitches consistently. But guys with his potential always get another shot. If not in Cincinnati then somewhere else.
Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds
by Caleb on
May 17, 2008 9:24 AM EDT
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It is more than that
Obviously I am sickened that Homer hasn’t developed a changeup worth anything yet and yes, I think it is him being builheaded.
But the bigger worry is the fall in k/9 the last 2 seasons and his decline in velocity. In AA, he was around 93-98 consistantly. Now he is barely getting beyond 93 some starts. That is why his walks have increased(no changeup scared to put the ball over the plate) and his k/9 has dropped. He is a velocity dependent pitcher. The trouble with his mechanics are probably the reason why his velocity has dropped.
The question is why? Is it because of injury? Was he a HGH pitcher? Is he just lazy ala Beckett 2006 and out of shape? He needs to get his velocity back and needs to get it back now.
Maybe the Reds should send him down to AA as warning shot if it is mental/desire? I don’t know, but for a guy that looked to be on the edge of stardom in 2006, he sure has fallen off the face of the earth.
by Johnnypronto on
May 17, 2008 4:10 PM EDT
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A week ago people were demanding that Homer replace Belisle
and now after 2 bad starts there are calls to trade him again? I don’t get it. He’s 22 years old. He’s obviously not a finished product. I know that I wasn’t ready to be the superstar that I am today back when I was 22. Bailey’s obviously got some growing up to do, but I wouldn’t dump him just yet. He’s far from being a former prospect. He’s going to have some bumps along the way, but honestly, that’s the only way he’s going to learn that he’s not as good as he thinks he is.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
by Slyde on May 17, 2008 10:30 AM EDT 0 recs
just to be clear
my question was meant to determine in which scenario homer would have more value, given his current trajectory. I don’t think wanting to trade him is giving up on him, just another way to add value to the team. I don’t think it’s a good idea right now, because I don’t think his trade stock is high enough. But I don’t think we should rule out the idea, either.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on
May 17, 2008 11:40 AM EDT
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I wanted him to take Belisle's spot
but now not until he gets himself worked out. I think it is probably mechanical, or perhaps a dead arm period.
Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds
by Caleb on
May 17, 2008 11:47 AM EDT
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i'm still calling for him to replace belisle
his problems are all mental. one would think he’d have been put in his place last year, but i guess he believes he was successful in the Majors. i don’t want belisle in the rotation, and i don’t want fogg, and that leaves homer.
he’ll be all right. he’s what, 22 now? isn’t that the age where a person thinks he knows everything?
by Daedalus on
May 17, 2008 1:00 PM EDT
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Wow, that was harsh
Preemptive apology. I was out of line.
Reds win! Let’s hug it out.
by Red Menace on
May 18, 2008 1:39 AM EDT
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rec'd
in fact i’m going to go create other accounts so that i can rec this again!
In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.
by chandrathan on
May 18, 2008 11:56 AM EDT
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Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying.
So what of it?
by Brian B on
May 17, 2008 2:04 PM EDT
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nothing.
I have no problem with considering a trade, though I may not have been clear about that in my post. It just seems like this sudden urge to discuss dealing him again is because of 2 bad starts. It’s one thing to be fickle and reactionary with a 5-year veteran, but a 22-year old still in Triple-A is going to get beat around from time to time. He doesn’t suddenly become worthless because of it.
"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays
by Slyde on
May 17, 2008 3:04 PM EDT
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Depends
I’d trade him if I could get a player who could plug a hole in the team and start tomorrow. That won’t happen. Bailey is a minor leaguer and all we’d get is another AAA player. It doesn’t cost much to keep him at Louisville and wait and see.
Frankly, we’re never going to get much in a Bailey trade. If he comes up and is successful, we’ll keep him. If he comes up and turns into another Belisle, we’ll pick up some AA prospect.
by justcorbly on May 17, 2008 6:42 PM EDT 0 recs
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