Farmers only love a good pitching performance

by Rick House on May 13, 2008 5:15 AM EDT in News

Bruce

This guy on the right had a terrific day, tallying five hits and taking over the IL batting lead, but the day is really about two pitchers vying to be the Reds' next top pitching prospect after Homer is called up for good. It's between Matt Maloney, who flirted with a no-hitter, and Daryl Thompson, who has now allowed less than 2 earned runs 7 times in his 8 appearances. Who do you guys like better? I'll go with Thompson, in large part because he's 2 years younger. He was also one of the organization's best pitchers last season and is one of 3 guys below Triple-A on the 40-man roster. Despite his age and lower level, I think he beats Maloney to the majors.

Maloney

Triple-A: Matt Maloney was 2 outs away from a 7-inning no-hitter in Game 1 of Louisville's doubleheader sweep of Richmond. The Bats won the game 7-0, then turned around and beat the Braves 2-1. Maloney had 7 strikeouts in the complete game and allowed 2 singles in the 7th. He's got some nice strikeout/walk/home run rates despite that 5.23 ERA: 41.1 IP, 37K, 13BB, 1HR. Back to the game, Jay Bruce was 4 for 4 with a home run and 2 doubles, and he now leads the International League in batting average (.348) and is fourth in OPS (.984) and fifth in RBIs (29). The Bats managed just 4 hits in Game 2, one by Bruce and one by Andy Phillips, who extended his hitting streak to 15 games. UP NEXT: At home vs. Scranton, 7 tonight.

Thompson

Double-A: Daryl Thompson was solid again, but the Lookouts' bullpen blew it in Chattanooga's 9-7 loss. Thompson struck out 5 in 6 innings and allowed 4 hits, 4 walks and 1 unearned run. The 22-year-old has struck out 49 in 49 innings, walking 11, and has a 1.28 ERA. He's in the top 3 in the Southern league in ERA (1.28), strikeouts and WHIP (0.91, 1st). Chris Valaika was 1 for 5, and Tonys Gutierrez was 2 for 4 with 2 doubles and a walk. UP NEXT: Game 4 at Carolina, 7:15 tonight.

High A: Drew Stubbs and Juan Francisco had 2 hits apiece as Sarasota won 7-2. Alexander Smit struck out 8 in 6 innings. UP NEXT: Game 2 vs. Fort Myers, 7 tonight.

Low A: Dayton managed just 3 hits but beat Lansing 2-1. Two Dragons -- Curtis Partch and Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette -- combined to strike out 13 and walk just 1. Dayton (20-14) has a 1-game lead on West Michigan for first place in the Midwest League's Eastern division. UP NEXT: Game 2 at Lansing, 10:30 this morning.

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notes

im not counting relievers like danny herrera and josh roenicke, because there’s only so much a reliever can do. As good as those guys are, they’re not going to be as valuable as a good starter.

Guys like Travis Wood, Ben Jukich and Sam LeCure are in a second tier, and a few others like Ramon Ramirez, Justin Lehr and Tom Shearn are too old at their levels (or at all) to be named in top-prospect lists.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on May 13, 2008 5:28 AM EDT 0 recs

There's no excuse..

for Jay Bruce being in Louisville still. Swallow your **ing pride and bench Patterson already.

by homerun21 on May 13, 2008 5:57 AM EDT 0 recs

The excuse

is probably the arb clock. I think that’s why they waited until June to call Homer up last year.

I wonder if they’ll even call him up at all this year, if the Reds give up on the season. They may decide that it’s not worth it if there’s no chance of making the post-season.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on May 13, 2008 6:14 AM EDT up 0 recs

they'll call him up

For ticket sales alone. If Griffey/Dunn get traded they have to call him up to draw some fans, or it could get even uglier down at the stadium.

by homerun21 on May 13, 2008 6:29 AM EDT up 0 recs

Would he really be that kind of a draw?

Here in NY, a pitching prospect might put a few extra buns in the seats, but probably not a position player.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on May 13, 2008 6:32 AM EDT up 0 recs

I think his first homestand

would be a draw. After that, unless he just hits like he is right now, he wouldn’t be. Look at Josh Hamilton and the year he is having and I don’t think he is that much of an added draw.

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on May 13, 2008 9:47 AM EDT up 0 recs

That and the experience of hanging with friends

Are the only reasons I’ll go the rest of the year. I’ll go to see Edinson, Johnny and Jay, the rest of them fail to excite me.

Please Note: I may be totally full of shit.

by jch24 on May 13, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

you're done with adam?

harang that is

In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.

by chandrathan on May 13, 2008 1:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not saying I'm done with him

Nor with any of the other guys. I’d love to see #600, a couple of Dunn blasts, maybe even a scraptastic day by Freel. But overall I’m a little disenfranchised with this team. I had genuinely high hopes this spring for the first time in ages and to see my biggest fear (pitching) allayed only to be done in another way annoys the hell out of me. Just part of being a sports fan I suppose, especially a Reds fan.

Please Note: I may be totally full of shit.

by jch24 on May 13, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

well, if it makes you feel any better

The pitching’s not really that good either – 2nd highest ERA in the NL, 3rd most runs allowed per game.

"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays

by Slyde on May 13, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

I need a hug.

Please Note: I may be totally full of shit.

by jch24 on May 13, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yes there is

9 walks, 34 strikeouts. His strikezone judgement needs to get alot better if he hopes to succeed in the bigs.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on May 13, 2008 10:35 AM EDT up 0 recs

Didn't we have a lesson?

Didn’t we have a bit here on how strikeouts are not as evil for power hitters as some make them out to be? They frustrate fans because they leave runners on base, but if a guy strikes out a lot and hits 50 home runs too, he’s still a great player. Wasn’t that the idea? Or do I have that completely backwards?

The season doesn't start until the Cincinnati Reds take the field! Reclaim The Opener!!

by TheC on May 13, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up 0 recs

Actually...I think...

sidnancy’s point is not so much that strikeouts in and of themselves are bad, but having only 9 walks and 34 strikeouts indicates a lack of plate discipline that will create problems at the Major League level.

At least it wasn't Grady Little.

by Paul Householder on May 13, 2008 11:18 AM EDT up 0 recs

yeah

There isn’t a lot of history of success for players who strike out twice as much as they walk (Bruce is at 2.7 K/BB in the minors). These are the players in history with over 2000 career at bats who managed an OBP of over .350 for their career while striking out twice as much as they walked:
Jose Canseco
Matt Holliday
Kirby Puckett
Jim Rice
Willie Stargell
Craig Wilson

To put it another way, just 6 of the 636 players with a career OBP of .350 over 2000+ ABs have twice as many strikeouts as walks.

Out of the 118 career players with an OPS of .860 or better for 2000+ ABs, these are the 5 players who have done it with twice as many strikeouts as walks:
Jose Canseco
Juan Gonzalez
Matt Holliday
Sammy Sosa
Willie Stargell

It’s not that Bruce can’t be successful with so many more strikeouts than walks, it’s just that he would be in pretty rarefied air to be able to pull it off. And since we’ve already got high expectations for him anyway, it would be nice if he could make it easier on himself and us to just be excellent the normal way – if there is such a thing.

"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays

by Slyde on May 13, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

"Pretty rarefied air"

I don’t know if I’d put it that way; that connotes something special, and that list isn’t.

Two HOFers (only one of which belongs), and one who will/should be, and one who will be but shouldn’t. The rest are “Hall of Pretty (not even Very) Good”.

And yes, C, it isn’t the strikeouts but the lack of walks. If his strike zone management is that poor against AAA pitchers, bigleague pitchers will have a field day against him.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on May 13, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

I see your point now

That makes sense. I sure wish the future would hurry up, though.

The season doesn't start until the Cincinnati Reds take the field! Reclaim The Opener!!

by TheC on May 13, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Maybe I should have just said "rare"

my point is that it’s just not common for a player to have that kind of rate and be successful.

I think you sell that group short though. Craig Wilson is the only one in the group that isn’t a legitimate all star. I wouldn’t be complaining if Bruce put up any of those careers (except Wilson). Then again, there is a lot of PED suspicion in that group too. So…

"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays

by Slyde on May 13, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

Further point

There are 8 names on your lists; I didn’t find MiLB numbers for Stargell, which leaves 7. Only 4 (Rice, Wilson, Gonzalez, Sosa) had a k:bb over 2; only Wilson’s 2.75 approached Bruce’s 2.7.

That kind of ratio in the minors is certainly not a harbringer of success in the majors.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on May 13, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

Andy Phillips...

...hitting streak still alive, now at 15 games. He’s climbing the up the batting leaders list.

Bruce displaced Dewayne Wise (now of the Charlotte Knights) when he took over the IL batting lead. Wise still leads in OPS, though.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on May 13, 2008 6:30 AM EDT 0 recs

Pitchers

No such thing as a pitching prospect… but I’ll take Thompson for the K’s and the age. Its not even really that close. I think Maloney’s ceiling is a 4-5 starter, but he’ll most likely end up in the ‘pen one day.

by DisplacedFan on May 13, 2008 10:03 AM EDT 0 recs

Also once a week I feel I need to bring this up

Drew Stubbs has to be promoted.

by DisplacedFan on May 13, 2008 10:04 AM EDT 0 recs

Ugh. Pitching prospects are bleak.

Maloney does nothing for me and I really don’t think he’ll amount to much in the majors.

Thompson has had a great start, but he has a lot of big question marks (homeruns, injuries, performance other than his hot month and a half so far this year). Even then, his ceiling is mid-rotation, not top of the rotation.

I think a college pitcher is probably the way to go in the draft this year.

by Geki on May 13, 2008 11:06 AM EDT 0 recs

Agreed,

But I could be okay with Thompson, behind Harang, Volquez, Cueto, and Baily as a 5th starter.

by DisplacedFan on May 13, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up 0 recs

Yes

I noticed that JTM’s sinning douche is not on that list and me likey.

Sometimes 8 Just Isn't Enough

by Pops Daniels on May 13, 2008 12:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

You probably mean "singing," but I like the slip-up

Out of morbid curiosity yesterday, I was checking out the Creation Museum’s website, and they have a lot of events sponsored by JTM. Jesus and the dinosaurs – they’re together again!

by Brendanukkah on May 13, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

Noticed it after I posted

and liked it enough not to bother with a correction. That shit is a sin. And the creation museum, don’t even get me started! That is yet another reason to never, ever buy a JTM product.

Sometimes 8 Just Isn't Enough

by Pops Daniels on May 13, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

i agree that without homer this isnt a great crop

but thompson’s home runs don’t really worry me. Other than last year in Sarasota he hasn’t allowed anything outlandish, and his k/bb rates are very impressive. I also don’t think he’ll be better than a 3-starter, but that’s something to work with given 6 years of homer, cueto and volquez and 3 more of harang.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on May 13, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

but at this moment the Reds don't need a great crop of Minor League pitchers.

They have Ceuto, EV, and Harang in the rotation togeather until at least 2011 (barring an injury or trade), plus Bailey isn’t too far away.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on May 13, 2008 3:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

isnt that what i just said?

that’s something to work with given 6 years of homer, cueto and volquez and 3 more of harang.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on May 13, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

sorry, finals week fatigue.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on May 13, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

that's what i'm going to do

i’m going to look for posts that make a good point, and them i’m going to rephrase them so that I look smart!

brilliant!

In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.

by chandrathan on May 13, 2008 11:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

I've loved Thompson since the Expos

drafted him out of Laplata HS. While at the time The Trade befuddled me a bit, I was thrilled that Thompson was one of the players acquired. If he turns out to be a No. 3 SP, that’s darned good.

I’m not as sold on Maloney. I still think he has loogie written all over him, at best.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on May 13, 2008 3:56 PM EDT 0 recs

this is unreleated but the game thread isn't up yet

Jr. is starting in rightfield, Jerry Hairston Jr. that is, because we all know that Ken Griffey Jr. can’t hit left handed pitching.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on May 13, 2008 4:10 PM EDT 0 recs

Hairriston

is that much needed RH power bat in the corner OF spot. He bumped Dunn to the 7 hole.

Sometimes 8 Just Isn't Enough

by Pops Daniels on May 13, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

holy shit

i didn’t even notice that.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on May 13, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

Dunn

Isn’t that where Dunn hit last night? And who was the yahoo with Marty on the radio last night?

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on May 13, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

Didn't hear it

But I believe we have whatsisname who normally calls the Bats games with us for a couple of games.

And yes, Dunn hit in the 7 hole last night.

by Brendanukkah on May 13, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think it was Mo....

Nah…Mo’s alot more interesting…Dunno

Eeyore has more fun than a Reds fan.

by Madville on May 13, 2008 4:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

Get it right

Please Note: I may be totally full of shit.

by jch24 on May 13, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

Apple Willis III?

"Hard being everybody’s hero, I suppose." - Buck O'Neil on Willie Mays

by Slyde on May 13, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

I had trouble

coming up with a different idea for Jr. Of course I was in a hurry and didn’t really commit to it, so there you go. I did sneak in under the 60KB limit, though. :)

And that’s no apple, boy. If you went outside more you’d know this.

Please Note: I may be totally full of shit.

by jch24 on May 13, 2008 4:49 PM EDT up 0 recs