1) Frazier - What do you mean by "he is what he is?" Dude raked at Billings last year, and looks to be tearing up Dayton early on. He's a little old for his level, but they should move him along pretty quickly. He's a guy I could see in Chattanooga by the end of the year, and if he's still hitting there, he could take a big step forward. He won't stick at SS, though. He's a 3B long-term.

2) Stubbs - Plate discipline is absolutely not the problem with Stubbs. He sees a ton of pitches and takes lots of walks. Contact rate is the problem. If he gets that sorted out, his tools and plate discipline could make him a Top-20 prospect by the end of the year. Sometimes, things just seem to "click" all of a sudden for tools guys like Stubbs. Hopefully, that happens this year.

3) Szymanski - It will take more than 1 week of performance to convince me that he's improving after 3 years of crap. Maybe he got it together. Pardon my skepticism

4) Draft - No way Tim Beckham gets to us. The consensus top 4 are Beckham, Pedro Alvarez (1/3B), Aaron Crow (RHP) and Brian Matusz (RHP). Smoak or Alonso would probably be the best bats available at #7, but both are limited defensively, and we already have plenty of those. Most likely, we're looking at one of the pitchers Tanner Scheppers (RHP) from Fresno St., Christian Friederich (LHP) from Western Kentucky, or Tim Melville (LHP) from HS in Georgia.

The Reds are usually pretty tough to get a read on in terms of the draft, but I'd say Tim Beckham's the favorite to go first overall, and even if he doesn't, he won't drop to number seven. I wouldn't mind Gordon Beckham, another shortstop out of Georgia (no relation), but I think the Reds grabbing an arm is the most likely option. I'd like to see the Reds take a college player who can advance quickly if they can, but they've drafted well over the past several years (Stubbs over Lincecum notwithstanding), so I guess I'll have a little faith.

As for current Reds prospects, I love Frazier. He's not gonna stick at SS, but he'll end up at 3B or a corner outfield spot and he'll rake. I think he's gonna have the bat to play anywhere, though I have no idea where that'll be.

Waring I'm less sold on, simply because of the strikeouts. He's obviously got some great power, but for a relatively polished collegiate player, you don't like to see strikeouts in a third of his plate appearances. We'll know more about him as he moves up, but I'm still not sure he's gonna be able to make contact at higher levels.

Stubbs' issue, as it has been, is making contact, but I've got faith that he'll make enough contact to at least be a major leaguer, if not a terribly good one. He's still got loads of potential, though the power hasn't quite been as advertised when he was coming out in my opinion.

As for Szymanski, I've pretty much given up all hope of him ever becoming a useful major leaguer, and one week comes nowhere near changing that.

Louisville: Paul Janish can be a very good reserve SS. Homer Bailey will be a very good SP. If Bill Bray can ever stay healthy, he can be an outstanding LHRP. Ty Pelland and Marcus McBeth can be serviceable, maybe more with Pelland. Matt Maloney, I'm convinced, will be a reliever but could be a solid loogy at worst.

Chattanooga: Craig Tatum is MLB ready defensively right now. At worst, he'll be a defensive-minded backup. Danny Dorn has fourth-OF potential at worst. Luis Boliver already is 27 or I'd be higher on him. I hope I'm wrong, but I have no confidence in B.J. Szymanski.

I love Chattanooga's pitching. Daryl Thompson has terrific potential. Josh Roenicke will be in the pen by the end of this season at the latest. I like Ben Jukich and Pedro Viola a lot. Sam Lecure has potential.

Sarasota: Stubbs will be a MLB OF if nothing else because he's stellar on defense. I think he'll hit enough to be much more than a defensive specialist. Chris Valaika has MLB utility man written all over him, but has the ability to play a solid SS, making him even more valuable. Juan Francisco has power potential. Chris Heisey and Justin Turner are interesting.

Pitchers Jordan Smith, Travis Wood and Sean Watson all have talent worth noting.

Dayton: Todd Frazier's bat is too good to ignore. He won't stay at SS, but will be a fine 3B or corner OF. Brandon Waring has power but a lot of holes in his swing.

Pitchers Phil Valiquette and Terrell Young have plenty of talent but a lot of baggage, too. We'll see.

Others: Devin Mesoraco is very talented. Let's give him a couple of seasons and see what he can do. Kyle Lotzkar has a promising arm, Nefatli Soto could be a force at 3B with the bat, SS Zach Cozart reminds me a lot of Janish.

2008 Draft: Gordan Beckham would look good on the Reds at No. 7, but scouts are split as to whether he can stay at SS. He might move to 3B. Shooter Hunt of Tulane is a possibility, but he has some control issues and Krivsky doesn't take well to those types. I'm betting on either RHP Tanner Scheppers of Fresno State or RHP Tim Melville of Wentzville, Mo.

Todd Frazier hit another home run for Dayton tonight, his fourth. He and Brandon Waring have been tearing it up for the Dragons. Frazier had three hits tonight, Waring two. Frazier is hitting .476 with a 1.811 OPS. Waring is hitting .458 with a 1.411 OPS.

I just do not want a bare system once these guys move up. I just have not been impressed with our guys drafted in the later rounds over the past two years and though there is some potential it still gives me flashbacks to having an awful injury riddled season near Bowden's end. I know its doom and gloom but look at the A's. One day its a top system the next its empty.

I also like the signing of Cordero but losing that 2nd rounder will not help us. Hopefully Cordero keeps up what he has done over the last few years and fulfills his contract with out any bumps but you never know.

I'd like us to go way over slot and sign the 2008 version of Porcello.

with the $2M signing of Juan Duran. I have to think that money was spent in great part because the Reds don't have a second-round pick to pay this year.

He's a career .320 hitter in the minors, no way Janish ever is close to that.

im watching the pirates/cubs game and the cubs broadcasters started talking about the pirates upcoming schedule. its Volquez and Cueto this weekend, and they were marvelling at the success of our two young bucks. one went on to say that he spoke to a dude who was privvy to our shit and was told that not only do we have these two impressive young kids and Bailey in AAA, but a few studs in AA who could see time in Cincy this summer. just thought it would be nice to share that even troglodite Cubs announcers are taking notice.

They've been polling their folks as to which player each team will pick in the draft. It was fairly cut and dried for the first six teams, but when it came to the Reds, there was a tie -- Gordan Beckham and Tim Melville each garnering 30 percent of the vote or 53 votes apiece.

In the runoff poll, the last I checked, Melville had a 53-47 percent edge from the voters.