Someone who deserves our support

Although Detroit's staff last year did have a number of home-grown guys making headlines.

I wonder what he'll think about Edwin's walk-off when the news gets to Toledo.

"...Johnny Cueto struck out 10 guys and got the Red their first win of the season. "

Dunn's career OBP is 79 points higher than Kingman's was. And, despite that, Kingman was still a good player. Dunn's better, and also not very much like Dave Kingman at all. Regardless of whether or not the guy admitted he was wrong about the prospects, the fact that he obviously didn't research beforehand and the fact that he's a blowhard when it comes to talking about current Reds leads me to say he's exactly the type of writer we shouldn't support. Well, not exactly the type, but despite some humbleness he has a great propensity for spreading incorrect information, so I can't get on his bandwagon.

Kingman did play in a much harder era for hitters. His career OPS+ is 115, which is lower than Dunn's 130, but Dunn hasn't hit his decline phase yet. If you compare the two player's OPS+ over their top 7 seasons, Kingman comes out looking a little better than Dunn, actually:

This is deceptive for many reasons though, mainly because Kingman only played in 756 games in those 7 seasons while Dunn has played in 973 in his. So, if we look at Kingman's 7 seasons with the highest number of games played and sort it by the best OPS+, we get this graph:

In this set, Dunn still played 973 games, but now Kingman is at 1012, so it's a little more like apples-to-apples. And now you can see a big difference in the two player's performance.

All of that was silly talk though because the most accurate way to look at the two players is more likely by just comparing their first 7 seasons. Again, we've sorted by their OPS+:

Again Dunn has the lead in every year accept the highest year, but then that year Kingman had an OPS+ of 148 in just 41 games. It was his first season in the Majors, and since I left Dunn's first season with 66 games in, I felt I should leave in Kingman's as well.

So what's my point in all of this? My point is that damn, it feels good to be a grapher.

I assume you're excluding pretty much all of the projections that have Bruce blowing Patterson out of the water offensively, right?

Which is to say, I assume you're excluding pretty much all of the projections, right?

and I still laugh at people who talk about Patterson taking Bruce's job because of his "veteranness", considering he played Patterson too much before he was ready

Does the first "he" in that parenthetical aside refer to "Baker"? The reason I ask is that I think I remember you making a similar point during the original Corey Patterson clone wars, and I thought it curious at the time because the only beef I had heard re: Patterson, Baker, and the Cubs was that Baker persisted in batting Patterson lead-off.

I've never heard a Cubs fan (and I know two really bitchy ones) complain about Baker "rushing" Patterson--MacPhail and Hendry, yes--Baker, no.

In 2002, the year before Baker got to Chicago, Patterson got almost 600 ABs in his third season with the big club. Those were the Don Baylor/Bruce Kimm Cubs.

.....we have a few really bright prospects and young talents, but we do not have the depth of the Indians or Tigers organization over the last several years, which is why we still do not rank in the top five in most polls in minor league organizations. Of course, I'm happy we're better now than four years ago (back when Ty Howington was our "brightest pitching prospect"), but we are nowhere close to being where we need to be, and we need to be amongst the top to compete because we do not have the payroll of the Yankees to subsidize our way into post-season play.

And yes, in the context of this team, here and now, Scott Hatteburg is a dead weight. He is 38, can only hit against righties, is only useful as a first baseman because of his throwing arm (making him limited off the bench), and at this point is taking away at bats and playing time from Votto because his manager is a disciple of the John McNamara school of managing. It's not his fault, and I wouldn't mind him if this were an American League team, and we could DH him more, but this is the National League. He's of no use to us. And Patterson is Patterson, worse than Hatteburg, a leadoff hitter who has no clue about what it takes to get on base (with a career OBP under .300 [meaning any manager who bats him no. 1 needs to have his head checked]), and Bruce, in spite of his age, is at least as good, if not better than Corey right now, while being several years younger and having a much greater upside. If the Twins, A's, Indians, and Tigers are any lesson for the Reds (as a small market team looking to replicate their formula for success), it is that if Cincy is serious about winning it must get over its veteran fetish and begin giving the bulk of its playing time to its young players (while developing their talent, here, where people like Jay Bruce belong, instead of beating up on AAA pitchers [half of whom cannot consistently find home plate with their no. 2 pitch anyway]).

Baseball America is not the only authority. So is Baseball Prospectus, FDH, MiLB, and Hardball Times

Help me out here - I can't find where BPro, MiLB, or HBT ranked systems in '08. And FDH? Is that FantasyDraftHelp.com?

three of the positions (catcher, first, and right field) have had 30 and over regular starters

Catcher - First, the top 2 catchers on the team are hurt. Second, what catching prospect is being blocked?

First - Votto has started more games, and played more innings at 1st, than Hatteberg. Say something different as much as you want, it won't make it true.

RF - Say what you want, but the move to RF has been a good one for Jr. He's better than average defensively, and has played over 80% of the innings there since being moved.

In fact, the regular position players for Cinci this year are a year older than Detroit's in 2006

Think having to start 36 year old Bako instead of 31 year old Ross has anything to do with that?

Hatteburg and Gonzalez, never mind Patterson and Castro, have no place in the starting lineup of a team like Cincinnati's.

Gonzalez hasn't (and with the way Keppinger is playing, he may not get many chances once he's healthy, even though he'd start at SS for many, if not most, teams). Castro has started 1 of the first 8 games.

Dmitri Young was traded for prospects, as was Polanco, Vance Wilson

Young was acquired for 26 year old Juan Encarnacion (already with 1670 AB) and 27 year old Luis Pineda.
Polonco was acquired for 32 year old Ramon Martinez and 30 year old machette murderer Ugeth Urbina.
Wilson and his oh-so-critical 152 AB in '06 was acquired for Anderson Hernandez, who's totalled 87 major league at bats in 3 years.

In fact, most of them were traded away, including Francisco Cordero, which is why Detroit's minor league system in the last few years is not as strong as it once was

Cordero was traded, with a mixture of other minor and major leaguers, for the rotting husk of Juan Gonzalez, Danny Patterson, and Gregg Zaun (who never even played for the Tigers) - none of whom had anything to do with any success the Tigers have had.