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What are they swinging at?

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Darren Hauck/AP

 

I noticed yesterday that FanGraphs has added a fantastic new feature to their site.  They call it plate discipline stats, and it gives us the ability to go one step further into analyzing the player's performance.  It's not quite the level of detail that you get from Pitch F/X data, but frankly, it's a helluva lot easier to get to and to comprehend.

So what do these plate discipline stats tell us?  Well it gives us an idea of how a hitter address the strike zone.  It lets us see how often they are swinging at pitches in the zone compared to pitches outside of the zone.  Also, it tells us how often they are making contact on those pitches they swing at.  Unfortunately, it does not tell us what kind of contact they are making, but maybe we'll get there some day.

The great thing for us is that it allows us to examine the source of our frustrations a little further.  Many of us have been, uh, concerned about the amount of aggressiveness certain players are showing during their at bats.  These data will  hopefully give us a better idea of whether or not that concern is warranted.  Specifically, we'll be able to tell a little better whether or not a certain player is being aggressive in the zone or if they are just hacking away at whatever the pitcher throws up there.  After the jump you'll find a table of some of the Reds hitters this season, so go ahead and take the leap of faith that I'm not playin' witcha...

All numbers were prior to today's game.

Name          PA  Pit  Zone%  Z-Swg%  Z-Cnct%  O-Swg% O-Cnct% Swing% Cntct% StL%  StS%  1st%
Keppinger 121 423 54.9% 62.8% 95.7% 21.9% 87.5% 44.3% 93.9% 31% 4% 26%
Phillips 115 419 49.8% 76.3% 90.1% 34.5% 44.9% 55.3% 75.9% 18% 19% 46%
Griffey Jr. 112 441 48.2% 67.7% 93.4% 21.8% 53.2% 43.9% 83.1% 26% 12% 27%
Encarnacion 111 439 49.5% 63.2% 88.2% 22.9% 66.0% 42.9% 82.2% 29% 13% 25%
Dunn 106 447 43.9% 65.6% 79.0% 13.6% 45.5% 36.4% 72.0% 30% 20% 23%
Patterson 94 328 50.8% 67.3% 95.4% 26.8% 69.1% 47.3% 88.1% 21% 11% 22%
Bako 80 297 49.3% 65.0% 91.2% 23.6% 50.0% 44.0% 80.0% 26% 15% 33%
Votto 78 260 53.0% 76.7% 81.4% 28.0% 48.5% 53.8% 73.3% 19% 22% 44%
Freel 52 197 59.3% 68.7% 87.3% 26.6% 61.9% 51.6% 82.0% 26% 13% 21%
Hatteberg 41 144 50.7% 65.2% 95.6% 12.0% 62.5% 39.0% 90.6% 31% 6% 27%

Glossary: Pit=pitches seen, Zone%=pct of pitches in the strike zone, Z-Swg%=pct of zone pitches swung at, Z-Cnct%=pct of swings in the zone that made contact, O-Swg%=pct of out of zone pitches swung at, O-Cnct%=pct of out of zone swings that made contact,Swing%=pct of pitches swung at, Cntct%=pct of swings that made contact, StL%=pct of strikes that were looking, StS%=Pct of strikes that were swing and miss,1st%=pct of first pitches swung at. (The last three fields are actually from Baseball-Reference, but I felt they were relevant to the discussion)

There's a lot of new stuff to digest here, so take your time.  Okay, that's enough.

Here are a few things that I noticed right off the bat:

  • Scott Hatteberg hardly ever swings at pitches out of the zone.  He's only swung at 12% of the pitches out of the zone this year, which is just below his average for the last 4 years at 13.15%.  In case you are wondering, the league average over the last three years has been right around 23%.
  • Joey Votto is a more aggressive hitter than I expected.  And I'm not so sure that this is all Dusty's doing.  Last season, he swung at 74% of the pitches in the zone.  This year he's up to nearly 77% so far.  The league average is around 67%.  What's good is that after swinging at about 32% of the balls out of the zone in his month in bigs last year, he's cut that down to 28% so far this year.  So he seems to be aggressive in the right spots in the zone.  I can't say that I'm loving the 44% swing rate on the first pitch, but he's not being killed by getting to an 0-1 count (.265/.306/.500 after an 0-1 count).  And since he appears to be attacking the zone more, and he's still hitting well over all, I won't complain too much.
  • Paul Bako's biggest improvement is that he's making a lot more contact this season.  His average over the last four years has been about 73%, but he's up to 80% this year.  He's especially making more contact out of the zone than in the past.  This should be somewhat of a red flag for future performance as I doubt that a player of his age has suddenly learned to hit pitches off of the plate.
  • Corey Patterson has cut his swinging down drastically from the past.  His average over the last 3 years was to swing at 55% of the pitches, but this season he's dropped that rate down to 47%.  Combine that with the fact that he's making a lot more contact as well (about 11% more than in the past), and you'd think that he'd be more productive.  The problem could be a couple of things.  First, he could have adjusted his swing so much that now he's making more contact but not hitting the ball very hard (his line drives are down a lot from his peak year).  Secondly, he's making more contact out of the strike zone than in the past, which may be another indicator that he's probably not making very good contact. 
  • Brandon Phillips has been too aggressive at the plate.  First of all, he's swinging at the first pitch too much, and he's not getting by as well as Votto after an 0-1 count (.241/.279/.379).  He's also swinging at pitches outside of the zone too much (about 10% more than the league average).  The thing is, that number is not that far off what he did last year.  The big difference this year is that he's making about 10% less contact than he did last season on balls out of the zone.  Add in the fact that he's seen fewer strikes this year and it starts to make more sense as to why Phillips has struggled this far.  Pitchers don't have to throw him strikes because they know he'll swing at pretty much anything.  The good news is that he's starting to make much better contact, but it sure would be nice if he'd lay off some of those pitches out of the zone a little more.  Especially those sliders.
  • The only thing I can scrape from these numbers about Adam Dunn is that he's not getting anything to swing at.  As you can see, he's hardly been going out of the zone after pitches and his contact rates are pretty much in line with his norms over the last few years.  His Zone% of 43.9% puts him at 15th in the league for lowest rate of pitches seen in the strike zone (NOTE: The top 11 are all Dodgers or Angels players which leads me to believe that their monitoring system might be wonky).  It appears that Dunn simply is not getting very many pitches to hit from one at bat to the next.  That's not to say that he's not struggling, just that the only thing out of whack from a plate discipline perspective is the lack of pitches he sees in the strike zone.  This could be a driver behind the fact that his line drive rate is WAY down (about 8% lower than his career average) while his ground ball rate is WAY up (that's where the 8% went).  That's the big thing that he needs to resolve if he's going to get back on track.
  • Probably the most amazing thing in the data is that Jeff Keppinger has swung and missed at just 10 pitches all season (going into today's game).  The dude is a contact machine.  He trails only Luis Castillo and Yadier Molina in contact percentage, but both of those guys have an OPS that is about 100 points lower than Keppinger.  It'd be great if he could get his line drive rate back up to where it was last season, but you still have to be amazed at his ability to put bat on ball and still be a pretty good Major League hitter while doing it.

Anything on there that I missed?  Do you see anything that concerns you or makes you want to strangle the manager with a fishing line?

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Great work.

I guess I’m wondering how static or dynamic these statistics are for a certain player from year to year. Like, should we expect Phillips’ contact on balls out of zone bounce back a little to last year’s rates?

I think it’s also interesting that Votto’s swing and miss percentage is so high, since he’s been hitting so well.

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Apr 30, 2008 5:05 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

yeah

That’s something I don’t know. Fangraphs has data for the last 4 years, so we can get an idea, but I don’t know if we have enough knowledge to be able to guesstimate rules for the general population based on the data.

FWIW, Phillips Out of Zone contact rate was the highest it’s ever been last season. It was still middle of the pack for qualified hitters though.

It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.

by Slyde on Apr 30, 2008 5:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Terence, this is wonderful stuff

It’s great to have an easier resource than pitch f/X to check this stuff. Thanks, Slyde

Definitely an antisocial type. Woof, woof, woof! That's my other dog imitation.

by Man Mountain on Apr 30, 2008 5:12 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

rec'd

Housman reference

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Apr 30, 2008 5:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Wow, this stuff is amazing...

uber-props… and a rec…

People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.

by crolfer on Apr 30, 2008 6:08 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Excellent. Very informative.

100101001001001!!!!

At least it wasn't Grady Little.

by Paul Householder on Apr 30, 2008 6:18 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

I think he just told Slyde to fuck off in binary

Excellent, very informative is 1001010001>/b>01001

Honest mistake.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Apr 30, 2008 7:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

My bolding didn't work

dammit.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Apr 30, 2008 7:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I'm a bit worried about Votto...

I realize he’s been pretty good thus far, but it seems to me that a guy with a low contact rate and an impatient approach at the plate is going to be prone to slumps…

People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.

by crolfer on Apr 30, 2008 6:22 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

FWIW

Votto has not been impatient in the past. His walk rate was much higher in the minors that it has been so far in the Majors, but that may be due to the fact that he hasn’t really struggled at the plate in the Majors yet. We’ll see what happens when he goes through more of a slump. These numbers will change with more volume too. For instance, after having 1 walk in his first 23 games, he’s walked in each of the last three games, including today.

It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.

by Slyde on Apr 30, 2008 6:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

it will also be interesting to see

how short votto’s leash is if Hatteberg is still around.

I have to give Dusty credit for continuing to play Votto.

Definitely an antisocial type. Woof, woof, woof! That's my other dog imitation.

by Man Mountain on Apr 30, 2008 6:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Yeah

I’ll give him credit for that too, along with Cueto coming North. It feels weird to compliment him. Icky even.

I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy. -Tom Waits and others

by Pops Daniels on May 1, 2008 1:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

$.02

Without looking at all of the data (as Jeopardy!girl says, I’m lazy), those numbers for Dunn look both really good and really bad.

Good: He sees more pitches than anyone (.72 pitches/PA more than even Hatte).
Bad: That contact rate. Ouch. Only Votto has a higher StS% (and only Phillips isn’t much lower).

His walk % is way, way up – once every 4.42 PA vs. 6.07 before this year, and his K rate is way down – every 3.75 vs. 4.82. So if, as you say, his %s on contact both in and out of zone are the same as before, he’s getting nothing to hit.

But yea, he needs to start hitting better. Of course, he’s only 3 hits away from his career batting average.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Apr 30, 2008 9:09 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Some numbers on Dunn
Season   Team  O-Swing%  Z-Swing%   Swing%  O-Contact%  Z-Contact%   Contact%   Zone%   Pitches
2005     Reds   15.18%    64.19%    39.35%    36.41%     81.69%       72.85%   49.33%   2848
2006     Reds   17.04%    66.40%    41.05%    38.11%     79.13%       70.39%   48.66%   2867
2007     Reds   21.20%    68.05%    43.35%    44.48%     81.56%       72.00%   47.28%   2639
2008     Reds   13.64%    65.61%    36.43%    45.45%     79.03%       71.97%   43.85%    447

His swinging strike percentage is actually less than it has been the last two seasons, though only by a percentage point or so. Actually, pretty much all of his rates are within a percentage point or two except for foul balls and called strikeouts, which are both down about 5%. Honestly, in terms of pitch data all I can see is that he’s not getting as many pitches to hit as he used to. That is to say, the problems are not visible in this data.

It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.

by Slyde on Apr 30, 2008 9:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

totally unrelated

but does anyone know where to find the video of buzz bissinger and will leitch on Costas Now? ive only read about it today and i’d really like to see how it went down. sounds like i should get premium cable.

Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 30, 2008 10:18 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

blog.kentuckysportsradio.com

it’s on the first page

In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.

by chandrathan on Apr 30, 2008 10:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

deadspin has it

http://deadspin.com/385770/bissinger-vs-leitch

Definitely an antisocial type. Woof, woof, woof! That's my other dog imitation.

by Man Mountain on Apr 30, 2008 10:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

like, will leitch seemed, like, under attack

friday night lights might make it on the rr book club. or it might not.

i think this is worthy of its own fanpost. i have a lot to say about it, as im sure everyone else does. ima go put one up.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on May 1, 2008 2:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Friday Night Lights is about football

This is a baseball site. What’s next, a book about the UK Wildcats?

If we’re going to read Bissinger, wouldn’t we read Three Nights in August?

It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.

by Slyde on May 1, 2008 2:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

i was implying we not read anything by bissinger

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on May 1, 2008 2:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Speaking of UK...

Did you see that they got a commitment from an 8th grader today?

In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.

by chandrathan on May 1, 2008 2:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

As long as folks have Buzz Bissinger on the brain

because he panty-raided the sports blogger sorority yesterday…

FJM posts a short fisking of that Bissinger Kerry Wood piece that we discussed a bit last year. The one that decided young pitchers these days aren’t spending enough time in the minors.

Definitely an antisocial type. Woof, woof, woof! That's my other dog imitation.

by Man Mountain on Apr 30, 2008 10:58 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

They're pitching around Dunn ...

it appears to be an effective strategy. He needs some protection behind him in the lineup, and baserunners on ahead of him.

by Mark T on May 1, 2008 8:22 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

I think the baserunners might help

With a hitter like Dunn the goal is to get him to swing and miss, so they are staying out of the zone on him more. There is little risk because he’s usually batting with nobody on base (71 out of 110 PAs), so putting him on first is not as big of a deal as when there are others already on base.

I’m not sure about the protection though. It’s not like the Reds have anyone hotter than EdE or Votto to put behind him.

To be honest though, I think he ultimately just needs to make better contact. He’s been hitting the ball on the ground a lot more than in the past, and that’s not good for him. His value is in his ability to get on base and be a slugger and it’s hard to be a slugger if he’s hitting the ball on the ground a lot.

It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.

by Slyde on May 1, 2008 8:35 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Very Cool Stuff

So Dunn is not getting any good pitches to hit. I wonder how many pitches out of the strike zone Pujols gets for hits. Seriously I’ve seen the guy hit a home run and the ball was about to touch the plate! Oh god I sound like Chris Welsh now

Norris Hopper's #1 fan!!!

by Zach K on May 1, 2008 8:57 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Pujols is at 43.81% for pitches in the zone

And Pujols is a special hitter that can hit any pitch just about anywhere. I don’t begrudge Adam Dunn for not being Pujols.

It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.

by Slyde on May 1, 2008 9:08 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

nor should anyone...

It’s not fair to compare him to (arguably) the best player in the game. He’s still an elite player, and it’s hard to argue with the production he’s given us in the past.

In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.

by chandrathan on May 1, 2008 9:18 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Neither do I

I was just curious

Norris Hopper's #1 fan!!!

by Zach K on May 1, 2008 11:27 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I didn't think you did

My comment was more forceful than I meant it to be.

The good news is that Dunn may be out of his slump without us realizing it. He’s not hitting the home runs like we expect, but ever since Jedi Baker gave Dunn his first day off back on April 13th, Dunn is batting .265/.400/.510. And in the three games since his most recent day off on Sunday, Dunn is batting .417/.462/.750.

You gotta hand it to Baker, his day off voodoo seems to be working.
Phillips (since his first day off on April 17): .294/.315/.608
(since his most recent day off on April 25): .381/.417/.762
Still needs to work on his OBP.

EdE (since his day off on April 9): .351/.390/.675
Defense is still progressing

Griffey has yet to have his Jedi moment and everyone else has had sporadic rest to let other players play.

It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.

by Slyde on May 1, 2008 12:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Vlad Guerrero

Bah – 35.84% this season which is up form an astounding 32.66%. Remarkable, absolutely remarkable!

by kennythered on May 1, 2008 2:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Like I said

I don’t trust the Zone% for the Angels or the Dodgers. The Angels have 6 of the 9 lowest Zone% in baseball for qualified hitters. And they have no qualified hitters outside of the top 20. This is a team that has the third fewest walks in the AL, but has scored the third most runs. I understand players being able to hit outside of the zone, but a whole team? I don’t buy it. Something is wrong with those Zone% numbers for the Angels.

It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.

by Slyde on May 1, 2008 2:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Looking at 2007

The top 12 lowest values of Zone% were all Angels and Dodgers last year too. Those 12 players represent to entirety of the qualified hitters for both teams. And remember, we’re not talking about something the batter controls here, so to think that pitchers are that afraid of every player in each lineup is very suspicious. I think I’ll send an email to Appleman and see if he’s noticed this yet.

It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.

by Slyde on May 1, 2008 2:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Interesting

Maybe Dusty is their hitting coach on the side? He could be using his MacBook Pro and Vid Coaching them.

by kennythered on May 1, 2008 10:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

By the way

Good shit with this post. I feel I am a little old school and romantic in my thinking on the sport but I still love the numbers.

by kennythered on May 1, 2008 10:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

awww...

Q t π

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on May 1, 2008 11:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

ρ mance

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on May 2, 2008 1:58 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

What's with all of the New Yorker Cartoons this week?

Are the liberals taking over?

It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.

by Slyde on May 2, 2008 7:55 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

people who aren't smart enough to understand lolcats

resort to the posting of new yorker cartoons

In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.

by chandrathan on May 2, 2008 10:44 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   1 recs

I don't get it

and now I’m scared.

It gets crazy on the road, and awful lonely. That's why I love pornography. This next song is all about my love of hardcore, barely legal pornography.

by Slyde on May 2, 2008 4:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I love love love

Perry Bible Fellowship.

Please Note: I may be totally full of shit.

by jch24 on May 2, 2008 5:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs


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