who said we turned down resigning Cantu, though I don’t know that the number was. I remember at the time reading a mil and 2 years, but I can’t find that, so I won’t stand by it.

I don’t think it any great loss not to have a 32 year old Wes Helms on the bench, particularly as I don’t want Votto to be platooned, but he would be helpful against LHP.

Cantu>Helms

Helms vs. LHP: .279/.358/.472
Cantu vs. LHP: .264/.302/.439

Cantu’s career splits show that he’s slightly better hitter against RHP even though he’s right-handed. I thought that was illegal.

then he shouldn’t have been surprised he got fired because his owner would have essentially told him that he’d rather eat an entire contract than trust Krivsky to make a trade for a rather obvious position of need

these are my new favorites ;)

Stay focused. The Robinson trade is always mentioned as among the worst in history.

But let’s look:

Liriano was almost 2 years away from the majors, was hurt at the time, and missed all of last season to injury. Bonser was 2 full years away, and sucked last year. Joe Nathan was a good reliever. Pierzynski was a very good hitting catcher with a decent defensive reputation; he also helped the Giants in ‘04. Definately a better trade.

Ruth for cash: This was not a trade; it was simply a player dump for cash. Cannot be compared to The Trade (which was made to make the Reds “better”).

Zambrano for Kazmir: Kazmir had yet to pitch in the majors (though he was considered one of the top prospects in the game); Zambrano had shown himself to be essentially Bronson Arroyo. It wasn’t great but it was better trade.

More important to my point, though, is this: None of these moves “broke the back of the franchise”. No trade ever has.

The other thing you’re forgetting is that The Trade was made to win NOW. So it doesn’t matter if Thompson turns into Roger Clemens; Clayton and the 2 relievers weren’t going to help the Reds win the pennent in ‘06, and any monkey could see that.

Lets say that Bray becomes a good setup man this year, and a good closer down the line, and Thompson becomes a servicable starting pitcher or middle reliever (I think he is playing over his head right now). Could you really say this is the worst trade ever?

Let’s say I lose 30 lbs, grow hair, and find $1M under my bed. I’d certainly become more attractive to the ladies. But that’s about as likely as Bray and Thompson becoming good enough to lift this above “dumbest trade of my adult life”.

I’ve kept a running file tracking the win shares and warp1 of the players involved. Say what you will about that methodology, but I can’t think of a better way to follow offensive/defensive and pitching contributions across multiple teams over multiple years.

Win Shares – parenthetical is Win Shares Above Bench

For the Reds

            06        07      total
Maj       -1(-2)    -1(-3)   -2(-5)    
Bray       2(1)      1(0)     3(1)         
Clayton    1(-2)     -        1(-2)      
Harris       -       13(3)*     -
Thompson     -        -         -                                  
        Cumulative total       2(-6) 

*Harris’ 07 numbers for Tampa Bay not included in Cumulative total

For the Nats

          06     07        total               
kearns    8(3)   21(8)     29(11)        
Lopez     7(1)   11(-2)    18(-1)      
wagner    1(0)   0(-1)      1(-1)   
      Cumulative total      48(9)  

WARP1

For the Reds

         06      07        total
Maj     -.1     -.6       -.7
Bray     .9      -         .9
Clayton -.1      -        -.1
Harris          3.0*       -
Thompson  -      -         -         
                           0.1

For the Nats

         06      07        total
Kearns   2.2     3.1       5.4
Lopez    1.2     1.7       2.9
Wagner    .6      .1        .7
                           9.0

That’s 2(-6) win shares going in and 48(9) going out, 9 Wins above replacement players versus 0.1. There’s basically no way the Reds could have come out ahead in ‘06 in an analysis like this given the disparate values between starting position players and relievers. Also note that Brendan Harris has been by far the most valuable piece moving to the Reds. He was let go for nothing which is… curious.

I’m continually surprised by those who insist that The Trade was not a bad move to one degree or another. I don’t mean to pick on justin. He voiced a lot of the opinions (mistaken I would say) that the various Trade defenders have held. To wit:

1. Ignoring the massive park effects that limited offensive production in Washington.

2. Underselling Kearns’ defense

3. Giving a far greater benefit of the doubt towards Bray, Majewski and Thompson’s future potential than to the players lost.

4. Conflating this deal with other (positive) moves that limited its impact.

5. Shifting the goalposts-it wasn’t the worst deal of all time-and downplaying that its primacy was to put the Reds over the top in 2006.