What's wrong with the offense?

by BLee2525 on Apr 25, 2008 10:08 PM EDT Comment 32 comments

A few interesting splits for your perusal:

I think most people here subscribe to the theory that the most important thing the top of the lineup can do is get on base. Get to the big boppers, and give them somebody on base in front of them to drive in. Seems pretty simple, but how are the Reds doing in that regard?

OBP from leadoff hitter: .324
OBP from #2 hitter: .311
OBP from #3 hitter: .304
OBP from #4 hitter: .306

Ouch.

Marty's constantly railing on the team's performance with Runners in Scoring Position. Lack of situational hitting and what not. He's kinda wrong, though. Actually, he's really wrong.

Overall BA: .255
BA with Runners On: .268
BA with RISP: .262

Strikeouts must be the issue, then. We all know that strikeouts are the debil, and we have a whole bunch of swing-and-miss bastards on this team. Put the farking ball in play, am I right?

123 strikeouts, 2nd fewest in the NL.

Well, what the hell's the problem then? If they're putting the ball in play, and hitting with ducks on the pond, they should be bringing runs home in bunches, right?

# of AB with Runners On: 321, 11th in NL
# of AB with RISP: 183, 14th in NL

Oh, right. That.

One good way to help yourself out is to see a lot of pitches. Control that strike zone. Take some walks, find something to hit. Get the starter out of the game as soon as you can.

#P/PA: 3.74, T-14th in NL
# of PA's vs. opponent's relievers: 296, 14th in NL.

We're giving up outs, we're not working counts, we're doing exactly what the pitcher wants us to do. We keep the opposing starter in the game too long. We're trying to "manufacture runs" (3rd in NL in Sac Bunts) It's not situational hitting or "selfish swinging" like Marty and Cowboy will tell you. There's your problem with the offense.

1 recs | Comment 32 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

It's all Dunn's fault

by Snake the Jake on Apr 25, 2008 10:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

and Edwin's

They’re both Dead Pull Hitters who can’t go the other way and do the little things to help the team WIN games.

by Red Menace on Apr 26, 2008 2:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Taking pitches

It really does feel like they’re not working counts at all this year. It may be too convenient to blame Dusty, but that’s probably the biggest factor.

by ken on Apr 25, 2008 10:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

agreed

I wish Doug would put up a post on his pitch f/x site breaking this down for us. I’d ask, but I feel like if I make any more requests I’m going to have provide sexual favors.

BTW, this team is completely different than when Chambliss was the hitting coach. You know, back when they led the league in scoring?

You're drowning in the past, Mike, and I've got your life jacket right here. It's called the 80s and it's gonna be around forever.

by Slyde on Apr 25, 2008 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How reliable is the pitch f/x data?

I remember Doug saying earlier in the year that the cameras at GABP were off a couple of inches. That makes a pretty big difference in the analysis.

Yeah, Jacoby for Chambliss has not turned out so well.

by ken on Apr 25, 2008 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, I was thinking

is that it’s the easiest way to look at individual pitches. I don’t think they have problems with the strike zone so much, just the spin. Either way, I really just want to know how much they are swinging at the first two pitches compared to last season.

You're drowning in the past, Mike, and I've got your life jacket right here. It's called the 80s and it's gonna be around forever.

by Slyde on Apr 26, 2008 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even Welsh is noticing

Just expressed his frustration that Sanchez is only throwing 11 pitches/inning so far tonight.

by ken on Apr 25, 2008 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, approach problems are coaching problems. Fuck Dusty and Jacoby

Brendon, there's nothing wrong with lying to women. Or the government. Or parents. Or God.

by Man Mountain on Apr 25, 2008 11:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why no Phillips Tonight?

Why sit Phillips just as he comes out of a slump? Dusty put out a bad bad lineup tonight.

Excellent post about the offense with runners in scoring position. I never would have believed it but I guess the numbers don’t lie.

by CrackerJack on Apr 26, 2008 12:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It seems like a lot of people are noticing

that the Reds are not seeing a lot of pitches (RR, Thom and Welsh, most notably). How does Dusty (or Jacoby) not notice this trend and try to rectify it? Is he really that oblivious to what’s going on with this team? (I think I may have answered my own question there, sadly.)

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Apr 26, 2008 2:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Taking pitches never brung me no pheasant

Brendon, there's nothing wrong with lying to women. Or the government. Or parents. Or God.

by Man Mountain on Apr 26, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Coaching is paramount.

Although many here don’t subscribe to the effectiveness of Managers and coaches – I think Slyde’s comment on how the team’s approach to hitting has changed since Chambliss is gone is on right the money. Who’s in charge ? Looks like the inmates are running the joint..not to mention continued line up fiddling by Dustbag.

More and more I think the loss off Hamilton (while an excellent trade, for the pitching side) has left a void in the line up. The guy really had personal power when he was at the plate.. and i think that this persona was contagious to the rest of the team.

"I'm not a gearhead at all" Danica

by Madville on Apr 26, 2008 11:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

if by contagious you mean everyone hated him

because they did.

it was all about jealousy, but i can see how they felt he was handed his position.

In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.

by chandrathan on Apr 26, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

...what?

Where did that come from? I never got a sense of that at all.

by Brendanukkah on Apr 26, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I read it on the internet

about an hour ago.

You're drowning in the past, Mike, and I've got your life jacket right here. It's called the 80s and it's gonna be around forever.

by Slyde on Apr 26, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

directly from brandon phillips's mouth to my ears

he told me that when he was bitching because they had a josh hamilton night, and to that point hadn’t done a bp giveaway

In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.

by chandrathan on Apr 26, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Who’s in charge ? Looks like the inmates are running the joint.."

It looks exactly opposite to me. It looks to me like the mistakes the teams are making are a direct result of Dusty’s managing, which you mention in the following sentence. And anybody that tells Ryan Freel to be aggressive, which it appears they have, deserves whatever comes to them.

You're drowning in the past, Mike, and I've got your life jacket right here. It's called the 80s and it's gonna be around forever.

by Slyde on Apr 26, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK - I overstepped with my analogy.

The inmates by virtue of their individual mistakes (errors, mental lapses etc), team chemistry issues (This does not appear from the outside to be a tight-knit happy ball club), and their lack of clubhouse/on the field leadership, gives me a sense of no one leading the charge (it could be a different guy each game). So I should have said the inmates are ruining the joint! (BP may be smoking the joint…)

"I'm not a gearhead at all" Danica

by Madville on Apr 26, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think it has more to do with Dusty than Hobbs

check out this quote from Dusty regarding the HR by BP: “Brandon hasn’t been swinging well lately,” Baker said. “Maybe Brandon will get going. He was aggressive and looked like the Brandon I know.”

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20080425&content_id=2588109&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

obviously, the operative word here is “aggresive”. BP came up hacking, just like everyone else did all night long. first pitch swinging, and it was a bad pitch, up and away. he got ahold of a hanger from Sanchez from took it out, but being aggresive when your team is down 3 in the 9th is cripplingly retarded. Dusty is a pox.

Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 26, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's been aggressive

Phillips has swung at the first pitch in 48 of his 95 plate appearance (51%). He’s put the ball in play on 17 of those swings (35% of swings, 18% of PAs) during which he is batting a very nice .471/.471/.882. The problem is that after an 0-1 count (49 PAs or 52% of his PAs), he’s batting just .191/.224/.298. His success after a 1-0 count isn’t spectacular (.240/.345/.440), but it’s a helluva lot better than the 0-1 count.

We can’t tell from this how many of the first pitch swings were on pitches that would have been strikes anyway, but it’s not a bad strategy to force the pitcher to put you down 0-1 rather than helping him get you there. If you are battling from behind in over half of your at bats, you’re going to have a hard time being successful over an extended period.

BTW, in his full two seasons with the Reds, Brandon has swung at the first pitch 37% of the time. He’s also taken a strike 21% of the time. That number is down to 18% this year. Lack aggressiveness this year has not been Phillips’s problem.

You're drowning in the past, Mike, and I've got your life jacket right here. It's called the 80s and it's gonna be around forever.

by Slyde on Apr 26, 2008 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe i wasnt being clear

i think phillips’ (and pretty much everyone else’s) problem is being TOO aggressive. too many first pitch pop-ups and too few walks. Sanchez didnt throw is 100 pitch until the 9th inning last night. and i think this whole “be aggressive” business is all Dusty’s meddling. dudes need to chill out and take a few pitches.

Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 26, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know

I was attacking Dusty’s quote. Not you. So it was me who was not clear. Not you, Mr. Charlie Scrabbles.

You're drowning in the past, Mike, and I've got your life jacket right here. It's called the 80s and it's gonna be around forever.

by Slyde on Apr 26, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No problem, Mr. Slyde Dorknerdcomputergeekbinarynativetongue

As long as we both agree Dusty is wrong.

Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 26, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From what I can tell..

..last night was the first time in Sanchez’s professional career that he had ever pitched into the ninth inning.

I don't know how to paint a banana gourd to look like a Power Ranger.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 26, 2008 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Correct, Mr. Vegas

But it was not the first time that the Reds made a relatively unknown lefty look like Sandy Koufax.

"I'm not a gearhead at all" Danica

by Madville on Apr 26, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well Mr Dick - are you joing the the Red Reporter Book Club and can I get you -

"I'm not a gearhead at all" Danica

by Madville on Apr 26, 2008 5:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's "joining" the RR book club...

"I'm not a gearhead at all" Danica

by Madville on Apr 26, 2008 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey

we stole a little from you BLee. Erardi has a little article up today pointing out some numbers here and there. Just thought I’d point it out to you since we used your number of RISP attempts point.

You're drowning in the past, Mike, and I've got your life jacket right here. It's called the 80s and it's gonna be around forever.

by Slyde on Apr 27, 2008 9:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

awesome work

i thought when i first read B’s post that it was the kind of thing that might interest local media, a la the USS Mariner and King Felix affair.

Brendon, there's nothing wrong with lying to women. Or the government. Or parents. Or God.

by Man Mountain on Apr 27, 2008 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Coupla questions:

“Of all these clubs with the worst records in the last eight years, all but Tampa Bay are in the bottom half of market size.”

Does this mean what I think it means? That the Tampa/St. Petersburg/Clearwater market is one of the fifteen largest in MLB? I guess I can believe it but I never would ahve guessed it.

“Conclusion: The worst teams in baseball the past eight years – no question – are Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.”

This is the dirty little secret that I’ve been aware of but I’ve tried to make myselft feel better about by convincing myself that while the Reds are clearly in MLB’s bottom five, they are clearly not in the bottom four. (Am I right? Pleeease?)

A related trivia question… In the ten seasons since the NL Central “expanded” to six teams, how many times have the Pirates finished sixth?

I don't know how to paint a banana gourd to look like a Power Ranger.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 27, 2008 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here are the records between 2001-2007 of the teams worse than the Reds:

Team           W     L     PCT
Tampa Bay     444   688   .392
Kansas City   455   679   .401
Pittsburgh    483   649   .427
Detroit       490   643   .432
Baltimore     492   641   .434
Milwaukee     498   635   .440
Cincinnati    514   620   .453

What’s amazing about this is that the Tigers have been a combined 42 games over .500 the last 2 seasons, and the Reds still have 24 more wins than them over the last 7 years.

You're drowning in the past, Mike, and I've got your life jacket right here. It's called the 80s and it's gonna be around forever.

by Slyde on Apr 27, 2008 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs