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Reds Players w/ MOB - Interesting Find

This article deals with MOB only

Using Dunns 2006 vs. Phillips 2007
PA AB H HR RBI BB IBB SO GDP BA OBP SLG OPS
---299 235 51 17 69 57 12 87 8 .217 .372 .472 .845
---337 306 85 11 75 18 4 56 26 .278 .325 .451 .776

So the difference is a .217 VS .278 BA
However.... there is one thing that sticks out, and thats GIDP.

So how much should we weight it? Should it count against AVG or against OBP? Actually it should count against SLG. I'm going to do TB-GDP and re-adjust the SLG%.
Reason: SLG = TB/AB. But a GIDP loses a base a different player would have gained. In fact, GIDP should be weighted more, because a single = 1TB. But without a GIDP, the runner is on 2nd compared to 1st, thus it's easier to score. I could go into BaseRuns, but that's too complicated for now.

 - New lines -
- BA OBP AdSLG AdjOPS
.295 .386   .518     .904 - Griffey - Career
.257 .392   .502     .894 - Dunn - 07
.243 .410   .474     .884 - Dunn - Career
.325 .394   .455     .849 - EE - 07
.278 .396   .425     .821 - Griffey - 07
.296 .382   .435     .817 - EE - Career
.217 .372   .438     .810 - Dunn - 06
.278 .325   .366     .691 - BP - 07
.269 .320   .344     .664 - BP - Career



So what? Right. Well this does a few things.
#1 - BP is just not a good hitter. There is no way he should be batting 4th, a place where theoretically a person will hit the most with MOB. He's looking awful in this.
#2 - EE is a very very solid hitter with MOB. He's a much better option for batting 4th compared to BP.
#3 - Dunn can fluctuate a lot. Using the career mark, .884 AdOPS is still solid. Even though his AVG is .243, he puts up the 2nd best AdSLG up there behind Griffey. Would you rather have EE-C or Dunn-C hitting with MOB? It's pretty clear Dunn is better. What he misses in Hits, he makes up in TB. Dunn is the best current MOB hitter on the team.
#4 - Griffey's an amazing hitter career wise, but he's not great anymore. EE is a better hitter with MOB.
#5 - Anyone else you want to see with enough sample size?

Extra Thought
This goes against a lot of what I've been saying, but BP needs to leadoff.
His GIDP are such a rally killer, that he should be batting with the least amount of MOB as possible. Maybe he'll change his approach and take more walks if he leads off? It's possible.

Conclusion

While normally you want a high OBP hitter 1st, BP might be an exception.

 I Split          G   GS    PA    AB       BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  BAbip tOPS+ Split
+-+------------+----+----+-----+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+
0 outs 361 604 559 .302 .336 .449 .785 .326 118 0 outs
1 outs 360 630 581 .265 .308 .439 .747 .283 106 1 outs
2 outs 357 599 554 .217 .275 .361 .636 .254 76 2 outs

As you can see, BP is at his best with 0 outs, so maybe just by maximizing the amount of time he gets up to bat with 0 outs, he will perform the best.
Many people are saying Dunn should bat 2nd, but he's the best current hitter with MOB. Thus batting 3rd is the best option, with EE batting right behind him.

Thought?

 


0 recs | Comment 10 comments

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Since there is no great option for leadoff on this squad

I would kinda agree with you. I think Encarnacion’s RISP average would dip at cleanup but I like that idea the best of what you listed. Why not do something like this with the current lineup:

Phillips
Keppinger
Dunn
Encarnacion
Griffey
Votto
Patterson
Bako
Pitcher

I know there are theoretical lineups posted all the time on this here site… but I never have done one and wanted to throw my two cents out there.

by buckeye22fox on Apr 22, 2008 11:15 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I WOULDN'T WANT SUCH A FREE SWINGER LEADING OFF

As of tonight (subject to coming back down to earthness)

Hair-stunned
Kepp
Dunn
Votto
BP
Jr.
EdE
Bako
P.

Why not put EdE down in line up. When George foster first came into the line up he batted 7th and sometime 8th. I don’t think he moved up to the 4 hole until 1976. By then he was confidence personafied!

Radiohead killed the Video Star

by Madville on Apr 22, 2008 11:59 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Here is my line up

1. Scottie to Hottie{when facing a right hander at GABP} or Kepp
2. EdE
3. Grffey
4. Dunn
5. Votto or Kepp
6. BP
7. Bako
8. Pitcher
9. Jerry Hariston/Corey Patterson

Norris Hopper's #1 fan!!!

by Zach K on Apr 23, 2008 12:04 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

... Have you been drunk driving again?

People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.

by crolfer on Apr 23, 2008 8:05 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

First base

somebody has to cover EdE’s errant throws

You're drowing in the past, Mike, and I've got your life jacket right here. It's called the 80s and it's gonna be around forever.

by Slyde on Apr 23, 2008 10:20 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ah thanks

Firefox was even trying to tell me about it, but I wouldn’t listen. I was too wrapped up in the smooth to notice.

You're drowning in the past, Mike, and I've got your life jacket right here. It's called the 80s and it's gonna be around forever.

by Slyde on Apr 23, 2008 10:47 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Honestly I wouldn't mind seeing something like this:

Phillips
Kepp
Griff
Dunn
Votto
Encarnacion
Bako
Patterson/Hair-stunned
pitcher

People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.

by crolfer on Apr 23, 2008 8:07 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wouldn't it be more appropriate to add another AB

rather than remove a TB? It seems like since batters don’t get credit for runner advancement, they shouldn’t get docked for taking a runner off of the base. However, they do get docked for outs made in the denominator.

Ultimately I think linear weights or base runs or some run estimator would be a better tool, but if you are just trying to come up with a quick and easy estimator, I would think it would make more sense to go TB/(AB+GIDP).

You're drowing in the past, Mike, and I've got your life jacket right here. It's called the 80s and it's gonna be around forever.

by Slyde on Apr 23, 2008 8:40 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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