The Rays have given themselves cost-certainty (at a reasonable cost), and by showing faith in Longoria this early, they were able to lock up options on three of his free agent years at extremely discounted prices. If they had waited 3 years and Longoria had established himself as a stud by then, there’s a good chance they’d be paying double what they are now if they wanted to cash in on those option years, as well as more to buy out his arb years. I mean, let’s say Longoria busts, something the Rays (and pretty much any scout/prospect analyst/etc) views as an extremely high unlikelihood. We’re talking a no-value, Brandon Larson kind of bust who never contributes a damn thing in the majors. Even if that happens, the Rays are out just $17 million spread over several years, at which point they can decline the options and be rid of him.

Toss in the fact that if he does bust, given the options and relatively cheap cost in the arb years, the Rays could probably trade him and end up not having to pay any of the contract, as another team would probably be willing to take a risk on the talent that he has. Basically, in exchange for a $17 million commitment now on a player who is very likely to be worth way more than that in his arb years, the Rays now control a future MVP candidate for 50% longer for significantly less than they would have even if they had been able to sign him if he hit free agency or even had they tried a long-term deal in a few years. It’s win-win for the Rays, win-win for Longoria as he is guaranteed a buttload of money in case he gets hurt and is never the same player or busts out, and the only person who really doesn’t get a good end of this is Longoria’s agent—and that’s only assuming he’d still be his agent in 6 years.